Northern Europe during Pandemic -- Summers 2020 & 2021 & onwards

[Dockhead]

Originally Posted by GordMay

I wish I’d found some more recent evaluations of the Nordic economies, during Covid-19, but here is a sampling, of a few perspectives, on the economic consequences, in the Nordic countries::

Nordic 2021 economic growth forecasts trimmed, virus spread top risk: Reuters poll (October)
“... Sweden, which did not lock down, will suffer a 4.0% economic contraction this year, compared with the 5.0% expected three months ago. Norway's economic contraction is now forecast at 3.6% versus 4.5%, compared with the July poll. Denmark was down to 4.2% from 4.3%.
Those are all about half the 8.1% contraction forecast for the euro zone in a September Reuters poll.
Next year, Sweden, Norway and Denmark are now expected to report economic growth of 3.5%, 3.6% and 3.5%, respectively, down from 3.9%, 4.0% and 3.8% forecast in the previous poll...”
➥ https://www.thechronicleherald.ca/bu...s-poll-511680/

Nordic 2021 economic growth forecasts trimmed, virus spread top risk: (October 21/20)
Reuters poll ➥ https://www.reuters.com/article/us-n...-idUSKBN27611N

Spending is back: Nordics lead the recovery (September)
“Nordea’s data on card transactions show that, after the initial coronavirus shock, the level of spending activity in the Nordics had bounced almost back to normal already in early summer...
... Overall, it is still too early to conclude which containment strategy has had or will have the best economic outcome...”
➥ https://insights.nordea.com/en/econo...m-coronavirus/

Nordea Economic Outlook: Bouncing back (September)
“... “Consumers in all the Nordic countries have played a key role in keeping the economies going. This is one of the main reasons we are revising up our growth forecasts for the Nordic countries for this year, while revising down our growth forecasts for the rest of the world ...”
➥ https://insights.nordea.com/en/econo...ook-sept-2020/

Sweden's GDP slumped 8.6% in Q2, more sharply than its neighbors despite its no-lockdown policy (August)
“... Denmark registered a 7.4% fall, and Finland a 3.2% fall. Statistics suggest Norway (GDP fell 7.1% different timeframe) also fared better than Sweden...
... Sweden has also seen much more widespread death from COVID-19 than nearby nations — though much of Europe is again registering an increase in cases..."
➥ https://www.businessinsider.com/coro...ighbors-2020-8

The economic effects of all of this are very much a moving target. The economic forecasts have been successively upgraded. But we don't yet know what kind of whack the second wave will produce. Hoping for the best.

What is clear is that the Nordic countries are doing a lot better than the rest of Europe. Combination of (a) moderate, intelligent pandemic measures which caused least possible harm to society and to the economies; (b) excellent health care systems; (c) resilient welfare states which kept people from withdrawing en masse from economic life; and, not the least . . . (d) luck.

[goboatingnow]

Originally Posted by Dockhead

The economic effects of all of this are very much a moving target. The economic forecasts have been successively upgraded. But we don't yet know what kind of whack the second wave will produce. Hoping for the best.

What is clear is that the Nordic countries are doing a lot better than the rest of Europe. Combination of (a) moderate, intelligent pandemic measures which caused least possible harm to society and to the economies; (b) excellent health care systems; (c) resilient welfare states which kept people from withdrawing en masse from economic life; and, not the least . . . (d) luck.

I would not agree with your summation , the results across Europe are broadly similar taken on the round , most have similar or better welfare systems and almost all have spent billions supporting workers in furlough

Most European countries tried the lowest effect measures approach
In fact in Europe arguably for most of 2020 Greece had arguably the best outcomes having a virtually normal summer after a very strict initial lockdown

[Dockhead]

Originally Posted by goboatingnow

. . . Most European countries tried the lowest effect measures approach In fact in Europe arguably for most of 2020 Greece had arguably the best outcomes having a virtually normal summer after a very strict initial lockdown

Interestingly, there has been a recent study, published in Nature, attempting to compare the relative effectiveness of different measures:



https://www.nature.com/articles/s41562-020-01009-0#Sec2

I don't think that one study proves this beyond a shadow of a doubt, but I do find it very interesting that "national lockdown" is found in this study to be one of the least effective measures on the whole list, rated at only 25%, less effective than any other single measure except for "police and army interventions", "travel alerts", "public transportation restrictions", and "actively communicate with healthcare professionals", and far less effective than "educate and actively communicate with the public" (48%), "increased availability of PPE" (51%), small gathering cancellation (83%), and basically the whole rest of the list.


True or not, this DOES line up with what Nordic health agencies have been saying all along -- lockdown is not only extremely destructive and costly, but there is not any scientific evidence that it is particularly effective. The Nordic countries had detailed pandemic plans (unlike the U.S.), and they followed them. The measures in their plans were supported by scientific work. They were loathe to employ measures like lockdown which had not been studied scientifically (and in at least two Nordic countries, lockdown was not even constitutionally permissable).

[Dockhead]

Originally Posted by goboatingnow

I would not agree with your summation , the results across Europe are broadly similar taken on the round , most have similar or better welfare systems and almost all have spent billions supporting workers in furlough

Most European countries tried the lowest effect measures approach
In fact in Europe arguably for most of 2020 Greece had arguably the best outcomes having a virtually normal summer after a very strict initial lockdown

I don't have the chart to hand, but the least affected European countries in GDP terms are clearly the Nordics plus Poland. Among big countries, Germany. I think Gord linked to an article which says the same thing.



The effect in GDP terms are NOT broadly similar across Europe -- from -4% or -5% in the Nordics for the year as a whole, to minus double digits in the UK, France, Italy and Spain -- that is a huge difference. I don't know about Greece. According to this recent piece: https://www.keeptalkinggreece.com/20...ecession-2020/ the Greek government exdpects -10.5% this year, double or more the damage in Nordic countries, and a huge budget deficit of 7.2% (!) of GDP, and unemployment approaching 20%. Doesn't look very good to me. Of course, Greece was hurting already BEFORE the pandemic, so is particularly vulnerable to this kind of crisis.

[GordMay]

Originally Posted by Dockhead

Interestingly, there has been a recent study, published in Nature, attempting to compare the relative effectiveness of different measures:
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41562-020-01009-0#Sec2
I don't think that one study proves this beyond a shadow of a doubt, but I do find it very interesting that "national lockdown" is found in this study to be one of the least effective measures on the whole list...

That's NOT at all how I read the study.

“Ranking the effectiveness of worldwide COVID-19 government interventions”
~ by Nils Haug et al

“... Our results indicate that a suitable combination of NPIs* is necessary to curb the spread of the virus. Less disruptive and costly NPIs can be as effective as more intrusive, drastic, ones (for example, a national lockdown). Using country-specific ‘what-if’ scenarios, we assess how the effectiveness of NPIs depends on the local context such as timing of their adoption, opening the way for forecasting the effectiveness of future interventions ...

... We showed that the most effective measures include closing and restricting most places where people gather in smaller or larger numbers for extended periods of time (businesses, bars, schools and so on). However, we also find several highly effective measures that are less intrusive. These include land border restrictions, governmental support to vulnerable populations and risk-communication strategies. We strongly recommend that governments and other stakeholders first consider the adoption of such NPIs, tailored to the local context, should infection numbers surge (or surge a second time), before choosing the most intrusive options. Less drastic measures may also foster better compliance from the population...”

➥ https://www.nature.com/articles/s415...=deeplink#Sec2

* NPIs = Non-Pharmaceutical Interventions

[Dockhead]

Originally Posted by GordMay

That's NOT at all how I read the study.

“Ranking the effectiveness of worldwide COVID-19 government interventions”
~ by Nils Haug et al

“... Our results indicate that a suitable combination of NPIs* is necessary to curb the spread of the virus. Less disruptive and costly NPIs can be as effective as more intrusive, drastic, ones (for example, a national lockdown). Using country-specific ‘what-if’ scenarios, we assess how the effectiveness of NPIs depends on the local context such as timing of their adoption, opening the way for forecasting the effectiveness of future interventions ...

... We showed that the most effective measures include closing and restricting most places where people gather in smaller or larger numbers for extended periods of time (businesses, bars, schools and so on). However, we also find several highly effective measures that are less intrusive. These include land border restrictions, governmental support to vulnerable populations and risk-communication strategies. We strongly recommend that governments and other stakeholders first consider the adoption of such NPIs, tailored to the local context, should infection numbers surge (or surge a second time), before choosing the most intrusive options. Less drastic measures may also foster better compliance from the population...”

➥ https://www.nature.com/articles/s415...=deeplink#Sec2

* NPIs = Non-Pharmaceutical Interventions

How does that contradict what I said?

Did you read Table 1, with the score assigned to each specific NPI? There are 20 different measures ranked in terms of effectiveness. "National Lockdown" is tied for the 5th worst of all of them, more than 3x less effective than "small gathering cancellation", and 2x less effective than "Increase availability of PPE".

It's not my interpretation or opinion, it's what the study says:



"From this perspective, the relatively attenuated impact of the national lockdown is explained as the little delta after other concurrent NPIs have been adopted. This conclusion does not rule out the effectiveness of an early national lockdown,
but suggests that a suitable combination (sequence and time of implementation) of a smaller package of such measures can substitute for a full lockdown in terms of effectiveness, while reducing adverse impacts on society, the economy, the humanitarian
response system and the environment.
Taken together, the social distancing and movement-restriction measures discussed above can therefore be seen as the ‘nuclear option’ of NPIs: highly effective but causing substantial collateral
damages to society, the economy, trade and human rights." Ibid.

This lines up very well with the rationale employed from the very beginning, by all of the Nordic countries. Doesn't necessarily prove that it's right -- it's just one study -- but this could be Mikka Salaminen or Tegnell talking back in March, and it lines up with the outcomes so far in the Nordic countries as well.

[Dockhead]

The pandemic picture in Northern Europe today is not a pretty one.


We had hoped that some of the daily infection rate curves were turning down, but it's not looking like that today:





The virus continues to run rampant in Lithuania, and the daily infection rate in Sweden is knocking on 500. It was looking like Sweden, Denmark, Estonia, and Latvia were all turning down, but they are all increasing again now.



Finland is showing signs of a surge. The only countries which look more or less OK at the moment are Germany, which has had a flat curve for weeks already, and Norway.


As far as deaths are concerned:





Only Lithuania has a rate above 5 per million, so Northern Europe is still looking quite good where that is concerned. Germany is increasing and has broken through 3, but with daily infection rates slowly falling, I think we can hope for death rates in Germany to peak soon, and 3 is not all that horrible.



More interesting than death rates would be % capacity in hospitals, but Our World In Data doesn't have such a chart.

[skipmac]

Originally Posted by goboatingnow

I agree , in Ireland we have had some difficulty getting community adherence to the measures. Usually after a few days there’s a massive outdoor drinking session or even senior officials end Up at a golf do etc. ( that cost us the EU trade commissioners portfolio )

The police here have zero appetite for enforcement , ( and the police authority asked the Gov to not enact penalty legislation )

Hard to get a nation historically full of individualists to toe a line

We have a 5km lockdown but the major roads are packed as everyone has a reason their journey is excempted !!

Certainly the situation in Ireland cannot be worse than the US in this regard. Mask wearing has become a political issue and has resulted in frequent confrontations that are occasionally violent.

All exacerbated by the fact that there is no consistent national policy. Instead whatever measures may or may not be adopted are on a state by state basis with many of the Republican states opting for no measures at all. Totally insane.

[Dockhead]

Originally Posted by skipmac

Certainly the situation in Ireland cannot be worse than the US in this regard. Mask wearing has become a political issue and has resulted in frequent confrontations that are occasionally violent.

All exacerbated by the fact that there is no consistent national policy. Instead whatever measures may or may not be adopted are on a state by state basis with many of the Republican states opting for no measures at all. Totally insane.

Don't listen to GBN's griping:

[B23iL23]

Correct. In Ireland , at least where I live, everyone is wearing a mask. You will always get some groups that either don't care or don't want to comply, but the majority do.

Was in a local shop last week where one person would not wear one. Not only did he get taken off by the Gardai (Police), he was berated by everyone else in the shop.

Yes the roads are still busy but compared to the last lockdown, we at least all have an understanding of what to do in terms of masks, distancing and washing hands and the stuff is everywhere.

Originally Posted by skipmac

Certainly the situation in Ireland cannot be worse than the US in this regard. Mask wearing has become a political issue and has resulted in frequent confrontations that are occasionally violent.

All exacerbated by the fact that there is no consistent national policy. Instead whatever measures may or may not be adopted are on a state by state basis with many of the Republican states opting for no measures at all. Totally insane.

[GordMay]

Originally Posted by skipmac

Certainly the situation in Ireland cannot be worse than the US in this regard...

Originally Posted by Dockhead

Don't listen to GBN's griping:
Attachment 227639

Thanks for the comparative chart Dh, which seems, to me, to support GBN's claim, that Ireland cannot be worse than the US (cases).
November 26 has See also, B23iL23’s comments about Irish masking.

[goboatingnow]

I never claimed Ireland was worse then the us.

[goboatingnow]

Mask wearing in shops is very good , but the social distancing and gatherings issue is still going on. Just recently we had a retirement party in the state broadcaster completely breaking the guidelines.

I’ve been in Greece during their current lockdown and it was noticeable how strict and compliant the system was

[Dockhead]

Originally Posted by goboatingnow

I never claimed Ireland was worse then the us.

Actually as of today, Ireland has the lowest daily infection rate in Europe:

[goboatingnow]

Yes because we have a 5km lockdown that’s lifting next week. Christmas will be fun !!