Northern Europe during Pandemic -- Summers 2020 & 2021 & onwards

[tp12]

Originally Posted by Dockhead

Worldometer says there are 9,685 cases now and were 4,947 cases on 1 April, less than doubling in 10 days. Look again; you are not reading it right.

You know, you're right regarding infections numbers. In my head I was thinking deaths. Which has more than doubled in the last 4-5 days. 370 to 887 (currently) and still climbing rapidly. Because of the very high 9% deaths per infections. It's people who are dying that's important, right? At least, it is to me.

Look, we're just not going to agree. You've at least accepted that lockdowns work so I can't understand your willingness to go into bat for a country that isn't doing that and has terrible numbers as a result. And they're still getting worse; they're moving UP the leaderboard, not down. We both said earlier in the week let's see how the number pan out this week but you're not doing that. You also defended Sweden's position as being good in the Nordics, and generally, and when the numbers starting going bad you changed that to 'it's too early to tell'.

I think we've exhausted the conversation between you and I. Perhaps it's best that we just don't respond to each others' posts on this topic.

[Dockhead]

Originally Posted by Montanan

Obviously a half the world away from Northern Europe is Los Angeles County. This county in the State of California has a population of just over 10 million, comparable say to the population of Sweden, albeit with must greater population density.

LA instituted aggressive lockdown protocols and it appears to be working rather well, so far. Now they need to determine how to progress. Each city and country being a bit of a livestream experiment as to methods and approaches to deal with the pandemic. . . .

Indeed! There are only a few places where it has obviously gone really wrong so far -- Italy, but no one really knew what to expect when that started, unfortunately, so the Italians got to have the unfortunate position of being the first -- and New York, maybe stand out.


L.A. is taking really costly action but if it avoids what is happening in New York, I guess it will be worth it.


New York is really looking alarming -- 170 512 cases, or 8,525 per million -- ouch! The rate of doubling has slowed a bit but still about 8 days. 392 deaths per million, already well surpassing Spain and Italy. God help them.

[Dockhead]

Originally Posted by tp12

And look at the number of cases only 5 days ago - the rate of increase increased significantly over that period and my comments are correct, it's not me who isn't reading it right.

Look, we're just not going to agree. You've at least accepted that lockdowns work so I can't understand your willingness to go into bat for a country that isn't doing that and has terrible numbers as a result. And they're still getting worse; they're moving UP the leaderboard, not down. We both said earlier in the week let's see how the number pan out this week but you're not doing that. You also defended Sweden's position as being good in the Nordics, and generally, and when the numbers starting going bad you changed that to 'it's too early to tell'.

I think we've exhausted the conversation between you and I. Perhaps it's best that we just don't respond to each others' posts on this topic.

Sure, but you never understood what I was saying, although I stated it pretty clearly a few times -- I never "went to bat" for any country's policies -- I consistently said that we just can't know at this stage. I have been pushing back against the idea that anyone can see from the numbers that Sweden's policies are obviously wrong. And I am right about that -- the numbers are, objectively, not bad.


As to the rate of increase of cases in Sweden -- my statement was correct. I have consistently used the numbers of days for doubling. That is the right metric -- the daily numbers jump up and down so you can't just use a few days in isolation. Sweden like the other Nordic countries and indeed most of Europe has seen a consistent and steady decline in the rate of doubling (increase in the number of days for doubling). This is the result of social distancing policies doing their work. And social distancing is working in Sweden like it is working elsewhere -- mandated or not, Swedes are doing social distancing and like other countries are seeing a decline in the rate of increase of new infections.



It may be true that the Swedes got it wrong -- or the Danes, or the Brits, or the French. We cannot know this yet -- professionals say it will be a year before we will know. You cannot state otherwise on the basis of the numbers we have. Sweden's death rate is moderate and rate of increase of new infections is moderate, both less than the European average -- so far. Furthermore Sweden's policies are almost the same as some other countries like Denmark. So only pure blind prejudice could single out Sweden and see something obviously wrong at this stage in Sweden's handling of the crisis. Maybe it's wrong -- I'm not "going to bat" for it -- but the numbers don't show that yet.

[tp12]

Ok, seeing as you want to continue.

Originally Posted by Dockhead

Sure, but you never understood what I was saying, although I stated it pretty clearly a few times -- I never "went to bat" for any country's policies -- I consistently said that we just can't know at this stage.

This is incorrect. You very clearly stated that Sweden was doing well compared to Nordic countries and changed that afterwards.

Originally Posted by Dockhead

As to the rate of increase of cases in Sweden -- my statement was correct. I have consistently used the numbers of days for doubling. That is the right metric -- the daily numbers jump up and down so you can't just use a few days in isolation. Sweden like the other Nordic countries and indeed most of Europe has seen a consistent and steady decline in the rate of doubling (increase in the number of days for doubling). This is the result of social distancing policies doing their work. And social distancing is working in Sweden like it is working elsewhere -- mandated or not, Swedes are doing social distancing and like other countries are seeing a decline in the rate of increase of new infections.

And I've agreed with you, reread my post, regarding the numbers for infections. And, as I've explained, my assertions are correct regarding the number of deaths. I certainly hope you agree that the number of people dying is more important than the number of people infected and that the death rate/infection doesn't need to be static.

Originally Posted by Dockhead

It may be true that the Swedes got it wrong -- or the Danes, or the Brits, or the French. We cannot know this yet -- professionals say it will be a year before we will know. You cannot state otherwise on the basis of the numbers we have. Sweden's death rate is moderate and rate of increase of new infections is moderate, both less than the European average -- so far. Furthermore Sweden's policies are almost the same as some other countries like Denmark. So only pure blind prejudice could single out Sweden and see something obviously wrong at this stage in Sweden's handling of the crisis. Maybe it's wrong -- I'm not "going to bat" for it -- but the numbers don't show that yet.

If you can't see that they've got it wrong by the number of their citizens dying then I can't help you and we'll just have to agree to disagree.


Lets just leave it there.

[barnakiel]

This crap bug will ease in the summer and you will be allowed to cruise, if possibly with a bit more formalities compared to last years.


Then it will hit again in the fall.


Even right now boats here are moving about.


b.

[Montanan]

Originally Posted by Dockhead

Indeed! There are only a few places where it has obviously gone really wrong so far -- Italy, but no one really knew what to expect when that started, unfortunately, so the Italians got to have the unfortunate position of being the first -- and New York, maybe stand out.


L.A. is taking really costly action but if it avoids what is happening in New York, I guess it will be worth it.


New York is really looking alarming -- 170 512 cases, or 8,525 per million -- ouch! The rate of doubling has slowed a bit but still about 8 days. 392 deaths per million, already well surpassing Spain and Italy. God help them.

LA County projections indicate how dramatically different the infection rate can be depending on whether the one controllable factor that is available to each and every one of us, that being social distancing, is realized or not realized. If the Rnaught is kept below 1 the pandemic winds down, if the Rnaught is not kept below 1 it continues to spread and can spread dramatically and rapidly. There is just the one lever which can be manipulated when there is no vaccine or herd immunity.

County health officials outlined the stark paths ahead for Los Angeles County. If the stay-at-home order was quickly rescinded and people resumed their normal habits, an astonishing 95.6% of L.A. County residents would be infected with the coronavirus by Aug. 1, according to projections released by the county.

Staying at the current levels of physical distancing would still result in 29.8% of residents being infected by Aug. 1.

But increasing our efforts to stay apart from one another by one-third could reduce that to just 5.5% of Los Angeles County residents being infected by Aug. 1.

[Dockhead]

Originally Posted by tp12

. . . If you can't see that they've got it wrong by the number of their citizens dying then I can't help you and we'll just have to agree to disagree.. .

Sure we can agree to disagree, but how in the world do you get to this conclusion from the "number of their citizens dying"? They are dying in small numbers compared to the rest of Europe. I'm just really baffled by this.


Here again are ALL Northern and Western European countries, no cherry picking!






What about the numbers makes Sweden stand out? Nothing of course. Sweden is in the better half of this pack and is doing far better than at least 5 or 6 out of these 15 countries.



There is no correlation between strictness of lockdown and outcomes. That's not because lockdowns don't work -- they do of course -- but it's because different countries have different dynamics and circumstances and so different needs. One size does not fit all, and how could it. The worst countries have the strictest lockdowns -- because they NEED them. The best countries have the lightest lockdowns -- Denmark has almost the same policies as Sweden; of the best five countries only one (Portugal) has a stay-at-home order.

[Dockhead]

Originally Posted by Montanan

LA County projections indicate how dramatically different the infection rate can be depending on whether the one controllable factor that is available to each and every one of us, that being social distancing, is realized or not realized. If the Rnaught is kept below 1 the pandemic winds down, if the Rnaught is not kept below 1 it continues to spread and can spread dramatically and rapidly. There is just the one lever which can be manipulated when there is no vaccine or herd immunity.

County health officials outlined the stark paths ahead for Los Angeles County. If the stay-at-home order was quickly rescinded and people resumed their normal habits, an astonishing 95.6% of L.A. County residents would be infected with the coronavirus by Aug. 1, according to projections released by the county.

Staying at the current levels of physical distancing would still result in 29.8% of residents being infected by Aug. 1.

But increasing our efforts to stay apart from one another by one-third could reduce that to just 5.5% of Los Angeles County residents being infected by Aug. 1.

Query how accurate those projections are, but we have to make policy on the basis of what we have, right? On this basis that policy looks reasonable, and it looks to me like most public health authorities around the world are doing a decent job. You're right there's just one lever.



It's been mentioned before but worth repeating that a great deal of even basic things about this virus and how it spreads continues to be unknown, so a lot of policy is inevitably made on the basis of guesswork. After this is all over, life will never be the same again, and mankind will have surely acquired a vast amount of new knowledge. I sure hope it will be used to prevent this from happening again on this scale.

[Montanan]

Originally Posted by Dockhead

Query how accurate those projections are, but we have to make policy on the basis of what we have, right? On this basis that policy looks reasonable, and it looks to me like most public health authorities around the world are doing a decent job. You're right there's just one lever.

It's been mentioned before but worth repeating that a great deal of even basic things about this virus and how it spreads continues to be unknown, so a lot of policy is inevitably made on the basis of guesswork. After this is all over, life will never be the same again, and mankind will have surely acquired a vast amount of new knowledge. I sure hope it will be used to prevent this from happening again on this scale.

Danish Proverb:

Det er vanskeligt at spaa, især naar det gælder Fremtiden.

It is difficult to make predictions, especially about the future. (English translation)

In September 1961 a version of the expression was published in “The Journal of Medical Education”, and the author of the article was identified as the Director of Institute for Experimental Research in Surgery at the University of Copenhagen, Denmark:
“It is difficult to prophesy, particularly about the future,”

Similarly, albeit American.

“It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future.”
― Yogi Berra

"If you can look into the seeds of time, and say which grain will grow and which will not, speak then unto me. "
--William Shakespeare
The Bard's elegant demand for a good prediction.

"A good forecaster is not smarter than everyone else, he merely has his ignorance better organised. "
--Anonymous
Prediction involves maximising the ratio of signal to noise, with the signal being the predictable component and the noise been unpredictable events.


"This is the first age that's ever paid much attention to the future, which is a little ironic since we may not have one. "
--Arthur C. Clarke
A touch pessimistic perhaps?


"I always avoid prophesying beforehand because it is much better to prophesy after the event has already taken place. "
--Winston Churchill
A shrewd remark about hindcasting from a shrewd politician.


"Forecasting is the art of saying what will happen, and then explaining why it didn't! "
--Anonymous (communicated by Balaji Rajagopalan)
The converse is also true: saying what WON'T happen, and then explaining why it DID happen ! See the large El Nino of 1997 for a recent example.


"Wall Street indices predicted nine out of the last five recessions ! "
--Paul A. Samuelson in Newsweek, Science and Stocks, 19 Sep. 1966.
False alarms are an embarrassing subject for those involved in prediction.

"The herd instinct among forecasters makes sheep look like independent thinkers. "
--Edgar R. Fiedler in The Three Rs of Economic Forecasting-Irrational, Irrelevant and Irreverent , June 1977.
Maybe we should let sheep have a go at forecasting ?

"The future isn't what it used to be !"
-- anonymous (supplied by Joseph Silling)
Believed to be a comment made by an IBM executive concerning predicted future trends in personal computing around 1992.

" It is often said there are two types of forecasts ... lucky or wrong!!!! "
-- in "Control" magazine published by Institute of Operations Management
An interesting binary approach for classifying all forecasts.

[Dockhead]

Originally Posted by Montanan

Danish Proverb:

Det er vanskeligt at spaa, især naar det gælder Fremtiden.

It is difficult to make predictions, especially about the future. (English translation)

In September 1961 a version of the expression was published in “The Journal of Medical Education”, and the author of the article was identified as the Director of Institute for Experimental Research in Surgery at the University of Copenhagen, Denmark:
“It is difficult to prophesy, particularly about the future,”

Similarly, albeit American.

“It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future.”
― Yogi Berra

"If you can look into the seeds of time, and say which grain will grow and which will not, speak then unto me. "
--William Shakespeare
The Bard's elegant demand for a good prediction.

"A good forecaster is not smarter than everyone else, he merely has his ignorance better organised. "
--Anonymous
Prediction involves maximising the ratio of signal to noise, with the signal being the predictable component and the noise been unpredictable events.


"This is the first age that's ever paid much attention to the future, which is a little ironic since we may not have one. "
--Arthur C. Clarke
A touch pessimistic perhaps?


"I always avoid prophesying beforehand because it is much better to prophesy after the event has already taken place. "
--Winston Churchill
A shrewd remark about hindcasting from a shrewd politician.


"Forecasting is the art of saying what will happen, and then explaining why it didn't! "
--Anonymous (communicated by Balaji Rajagopalan)
The converse is also true: saying what WON'T happen, and then explaining why it DID happen ! See the large El Nino of 1997 for a recent example.


"Wall Street indices predicted nine out of the last five recessions ! "
--Paul A. Samuelson in Newsweek, Science and Stocks, 19 Sep. 1966.
False alarms are an embarrassing subject for those involved in prediction.

"The herd instinct among forecasters makes sheep look like independent thinkers. "
--Edgar R. Fiedler in The Three Rs of Economic Forecasting-Irrational, Irrelevant and Irreverent , June 1977.
Maybe we should let sheep have a go at forecasting ?

"The future isn't what it used to be !"
-- anonymous (supplied by Joseph Silling)
Believed to be a comment made by an IBM executive concerning predicted future trends in personal computing around 1992.

" It is often said there are two types of forecasts ... lucky or wrong!!!! "
-- in "Control" magazine published by Institute of Operations Management
An interesting binary approach for classifying all forecasts.

[Montanan]

Last but not least there are these wise words:

" I never think of the future, it comes soon enough. "
-- Albert Einstein

The final word on the subject?

[tp12]

Originally Posted by Dockhead

Sure we can agree to disagree

Thanks.

[Montanan]

Happy Easter!

[tp12]

Originally Posted by Montanan

Happy Easter!

And to you.


Great pic, by the way.

[markpierce]

Meanwhile, not planning on using airplanes, ships, trains, or buses in 2020.