Northern Europe during Pandemic -- Summers 2020 & 2021 & onwards

[skipmac]

Originally Posted by goboatingnow

I never claimed Ireland was worse then the us.

Sorry that was not my point and did not mean to imply such. My apologies if it came across that way.

Just wanted to rant a bit about how really bad it is over here. It is really rather disheartening to me.

[skipmac]

Originally Posted by B23iL23

Correct. In Ireland , at least where I live, everyone is wearing a mask. You will always get some groups that either don't care or don't want to comply, but the majority do.

Was in a local shop last week where one person would not wear one. Not only did he get taken off by the Gardai (Police), he was berated by everyone else in the shop.

If only we could implement something similar in the US. However I expect if the government tried to mandate mask wearing the wacko, military wannabe, overweight geeks that demonstrated in various state capitals with their camo t-shirts and AR15s would go completely insane.

[Wotname]

Originally Posted by Dockhead

Actually as of today, Ireland has the lowest daily infection rate in Europe:


Attachment 227646

Originally Posted by goboatingnow

Yes because we have a 5km lockdown that’s lifting next week. Christmas will be fun !!

When was the lockdown instigated?
Did most people adhere to it?
Where other significant measures introduced around the same time?

Right now, the curve seems pretty conclusive that something (perhaps unknown) occurred around mid Oct and has had a definitive effect.

But what???

Personally, it seems a no brainer that preventing people from mingling must reduce case numbers. I not suggesting this doesn't have collateral damage or should or shouldn't be the only answer.

[goboatingnow]

At mid October there was restrictions on social gatherings and then a full 5km lockdown was instituted

In essence the thing that works is to separate people , ie stop them travelling , congregating etc

Mask policy fir example hasn’t changed only required on public transport and in shops

The reality I suspect is masks have very little impact or the other

[B23iL23]

It's masks, hand sanitizer, keeping distance, reduce your travel, stopping large gatherings etc.

You put them all together and it appears to work. There is no single magic bullet.

Originally Posted by goboatingnow

At mid October there was restrictions on social gatherings and then a full 5km lockdown was instituted

In essence the thing that works is to separate people , ie stop them travelling , congregating etc

Mask policy fir example hasn’t changed only required on public transport and in shops

The reality I suspect is masks have very little impact or the other

[Dockhead]

Originally Posted by goboatingnow

. . . The reality I suspect is masks have very little impact or the other

No one knows for sure. There is research supporting both sides of the mask debate.


My guess is that masks just have to have an effect. The virus spreads through the air. Anything which reduces the viral load you breathe in has just got to help, it seems to me.

[Dockhead]

Originally Posted by B23iL23

It's masks, hand sanitizer, . . .

There seems to be practically no scientific evidence at all that the virus spreads through fomites, such that hand hygiene matters even at all, notwithstanding what we were told at the beginning of the pandemic. See: https://www.thelancet.com/journals/l...561-2/fulltext.

Nevertheless, good hand hygiene (like masking) costs almost nothing, and good hand hygiene is a good idea in any case since many other diseases spread this way. So it certainly can't hurt. I've been pretty fanatic about it. I figure in the worst case it will reduce the risk of catching other diseases. No one wants to be sick during a pandemic, not with anything!!

An interesting question, looking beyond the pandemic (which is pleasant if difficult) -- to what extent will our hand hygiene habits be changed forever?

I remember when, decades ago, I lived for the first time in an apartment in a European megapolis, after a lifetime of living in houses, and found myself getting sick often. I eventually imitated local practices -- get rid of shoes and all outer clothing in the entrance, wash hands before touching anything, every time you come home. Et voila, I stopped getting sick. And now I follow these practices wherever I am; it's become second nature.

I think after this experience, many of us who have taken hand hygiene to a completely different level, will continue these practices. I think we will even see masking continuing to some extent after the pandemic is over, like they have done for years in Asia.

[Dockhead]

Originally Posted by Wotname

. . . Personally, it seems a no brainer that preventing people from mingling must reduce case numbers. I not suggesting this doesn't have collateral damage or should or shouldn't be the only answer.

Seems to me also. I think it's practically axiomatic that lockdown will have SOME effect on case numbers. But the question is by how much, and at what cost, and are there less destructive means. Those are different questions.

[B23iL23]

Yeah you can't do that in the U.S. I lived there for a long time and it's a different mentality - which goes a long way in defeating this bloody virus.

I was outside a big store in Dublin a couple of weeks ago sitting in my car. This bunch of lads, the roughest , toughest, hard core bunch of lads you will ever see, walked to go into the shop with the first of them walking straight in. The conversation went something like "Hey Razor, come back. You need to wash your hands and put on your f&%king mask you idiot". They did and all three washed hands and put theirs masks on.

I laughed my head off. A lot comes down to society and how it wants to behave and that's why you can get two very different outcomes even between two neighbouring countries.

Ireland has gone into lockdown twice over the last year and twice it's worked and the infection rate has dropped considerably. Northern Ireland with less than half the population has struggled and it's only a couple of hundred miles away.

When this is all over we'll figure out why this worked and that didn't. Why some countries did well and others not and what tech works. Hopefully prepare us better for the next time.

Originally Posted by skipmac

If only we could implement something similar in the US. However I expect if the government tried to mandate mask wearing the wacko, military wannabe, overweight geeks that demonstrated in various state capitals with their camo t-shirts and AR15s would go completely insane.

[Wotname]

Originally Posted by Dockhead

.........

Nevertheless, good hand hygiene (like masking) costs almost nothing, and good hand hygiene is a good idea in any case since many other diseases spread this way. So it certainly can't hurt. I've been pretty fanatic about it. I figure in the worst case it will reduce the risk of catching other diseases. No one wants to be sick during a pandemic, not with anything!!

An interesting question, looking beyond the pandemic (which is pleasant if difficult) -- to what extent will our hand hygiene habits be changed forever?
...........

Yes, the hand washing thing is interesting (at least, it is so me ).

I recall many decades ago (say six), hand washing was routine when coming inside the house and before EVERY meal. No ifs, no buts, hands were washed before eating. Any one visiting or when visiting others, everyone just assumed they would be washing their hands before sitting at the table.

I dunno when it changed but I guess it changed gradually.

[goboatingnow]

What is transpiring in Ireland is the economic impact is much much lower then originally expected. In essence losses have largely been centred around the hospitality industry. The very generous furlough support schemes has largely cushioned the impact on workers in that sector . Their employers have been less supported but in the main are holding in there.

While all this has affected the exchequer fiscal position wiping a budget surplus into a considerable deficit , the tax returns are buoyant especially from the corporate sector. The likelihood is the economy will rapidly power back to decent growth soon

Sure there will be business casualties but it will be confined to quite narrow sectors

Mind u the central city office developers are having a heart attack , between google , Facebook , Microsoft, and several other big tech re-evaluating how to office their thousands and thousands of employees .

[Dockhead]

The situation today:





This is a pretty grim picture for Northern Europe, although Europe as a whole is definitely getting better.


Where it's going well: Germany, Norway. UK is clearly heading in the right direction after getting pretty badly whacked. Denmark is stable at around 200 cases; a manageable level.



Where it's bad: Sweden is knocking on 500 daily cases per million. Lithuania is off the charts (I excluded it because it distorts the scale) at over 700 and still rising fast. Latvia at 250 and rising fast. Estonia rising slower but also around 250.



Finland is having a definite second wave and God knows where this will end.



What concerns death:





The picture is somewhat better. Germany and Latvia are worst at 3.3 and 3.6 daily deaths per million, but these are still low rates, and Germany is not concerning because cases are falling. Latvia -- we'll see. Germany didn't have much of a first wave so is experiencing a "dry tinder" effect of lots of very frail people being pushed over the edge but with cases falling deaths should peak soon. The rest of Northern Europe is experiencing fewer than 2 daily deaths per million, a low rate; compare to 7.6 as average in Europe.


So all in all a picture emerges of a second wave in Europe which hit Northern Europe with lesser force, and a month or two later than the rest of Europe. The second wave is subsiding in most of Europe, but hasn't yet peaked in Northern Europe.

[goboatingnow]

The situation is the U.K. as I says appears out of control

The Swedish “ experiment “ doesn’t seem to be working , certainly the concept of herd immunity is nowhere to be seen

[Dockhead]

Originally Posted by goboatingnow

The situation is the U.K. as I says appears out of control

Why do you say that? Infection is way down in the UK:





Do you have some prejudice in the matter? Looking very good in the UK to me.

Originally Posted by goboatingnow

The Swedish “ experiment “ doesn’t seem to be working , certainly the concept of herd immunity is nowhere to be seen

What does herd immunity have to do with it? Sweden's plan (which is basically the same plan as used all throughout the Nordic region) was NEVER to let the virus spread to get to herd immunity.


The Swedish (rather, Nordic) plan was to suppress the pandemic through a combination of targetted, mostly voluntary measures, including an extensive system of voluntary social distancing. No Nordic or Baltic countries ever had any lockdown at any point.


Why do you think it's "not working"? The Nordic region is the least affected region in Europe. Sweden is having a fairly bad second wave, but less bad than what has been experienced in most European countries, and with a much lower death rate. Lithuania is the only country in the region which is having a really bad time. I would say the "experiment" is working as well as could be hoped for.

[GordMay]

Originally Posted by Dockhead

There seems to be practically no scientific evidence at all that the virus spreads through fomites, such that hand hygiene matters even at all, notwithstanding what we were told at the beginning of the pandemic. See: https://www.thelancet.com/journals/l...561-2/fulltext.

Nevertheless, good hand hygiene (like masking) costs almost nothing, and good hand hygiene is a good idea in any case since many other diseases spread this way. So it certainly can't hurt. I've been pretty fanatic about it. I figure in the worst case it will reduce the risk of catching other diseases. No one wants to be sick during a pandemic, not with anything!!

An interesting question, looking beyond the pandemic (which is pleasant if difficult) -- to what extent will our hand hygiene habits be changed forever?

I remember when, decades ago, I lived for the first time in an apartment in a European megapolis, after a lifetime of living in houses, and found myself getting sick often. I eventually imitated local practices -- get rid of shoes and all outer clothing in the entrance, wash hands before touching anything, every time you come home. Et voila, I stopped getting sick. And now I follow these practices wherever I am; it's become second nature.

I think after this experience, many of us who have taken hand hygiene to a completely different level, will continue these practices. I think we will even see masking continuing to some extent after the pandemic is over, like they have done for years in Asia.

While I don’t, entirely disagree with Emanuel Goldman’s conclusion that:
“... the chance of transmission through inanimate surfaces is very small, and only in instances where an infected person coughs or sneezes on the surface, and someone else touches that surface soon after the cough or sneeze (within 1–2 h). I do not disagree with erring on the side of caution, but this can go to extremes not justified by the data. Although periodically disinfecting surfaces and use of gloves are reasonable precautions especially in hospitals, I believe that fomites that have not been in contact with an infected carrier for many hours do not pose a measurable risk of transmission in non-hospital settings...”
I do disagree with his final conclusion that:
“... A more balanced perspective is needed to curb excesses that become counterproductive.”
I think the Dr's really overstating his case.

I WHOLEHEARTEDLY AGREE with the balance of your contribution!

Growing up (± 65 - 70 years ago), I recall my mother’s insistence on removing outerwear (particularly shoes) at the door, hand washing upon coming inside, and especially prior to coming to the table (eating). She was, I thought, somewhat fanatical about these issues.
Prior to the polio vaccine, we even abandoned Winnipeg, for small beach communities, for the summer, to minimize contact with other children.


COVID-19 can survive on a variety of surfaces and may be transmitted via fomites. The CDC states:
“It may be possible that a person can get COVID-19 by touching a surface or object that has the virus on it and then touching their own mouth, nose, or possibly their eyes. This is not thought to be the main way the virus spreads, but we are still learning more about how this virus spreads.”
The evidence for fomite transmission of COVID-19 is not strong, but neither is it absent.

“How COVID-19 Spreads” ~ by CDC
➥ https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019...C_1052-DM29377

“Significance of Fomites in the Spread of Respiratory and Enteric Viral Disease” ~ by Stephanie A. Boone, Charles P. Gerba
“... It is generally accepted that respiratory viruses are spread person to person via aerosol transmission (7, 27). Nevertheless, current scientific evidence also suggests that fomites are an important vehicle in the spread of respiratory viruses [1] ...”
➥ https://aem.asm.org/content/73/6/1687

“Transmission of SARS-CoV-2: implications for infection prevention precautions” ~ by WHO
This document is an update to the scientific brief published on 29 March 2020 entitled “Modes of transmission of virus causing COVID-19: implications for infection prevention and control (IPC) precaution recommendations” and includes new scientific evidence available on transmission of SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes COVID-19.

“... Respiratory secretions or droplets expelled by infected individuals can contaminate surfaces and objects, creating fomites (contaminated surfaces). Viable SARS-CoV-2 virus and/or RNA detected by RT-PCR can be found on those surfaces for periods ranging from hours to days, depending on the ambient environment (including temperature and humidity) and the type of surface, in particular at high concentration in health care facilities where COVID-19 patients were being treated.(21, 23, 24, 26, 28, 31-33, 36, 44, 45) Therefore, transmission may also occur indirectly through touching surfaces in the immediate environment or objects contaminated with virus from an infected person (e.g. stethoscope or thermometer), followed by touching the mouth, nose, or eyes.
Despite consistent evidence as to SARS-CoV-2 contamination of surfaces and the survival of the virus on certain surfaces, there are no specific reports which have directly demonstrated fomite transmission. People who come into contact with potentially infectious surfaces often also have close contact with the infectious person, making the distinction between respiratory droplet and fomite transmission difficult to discern. However, fomite transmission is considered a likely mode of transmission for SARS-CoV-2, given consistent findings about environmental contamination in the vicinity of infected cases and the fact that other coronaviruses and respiratory viruses can transmit this way ...”
➥ https://www.who.int/news-room/commen...on-precautions

“Review of Aerosol and surface stability of SARS-CoV-2 as compared with SARS-CoV-1” ~ by N. van Doremalen et al
“... The authors conclude that aerosol and fomite transmission of COVID-19 is plausible (however, we note that this study does not demonstrate that it occurs ...”
➥ https://www.publichealthontario.ca/-...lity.pdf?la=en

“ Spread and prevention of some common viral infections in community facilities and domestic homes” ~ by J. Barker, D. Stevens, and S. F. Bloomfield
➥ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7166786/