Northern Europe during Pandemic -- Summers 2020 & 2021 & onwards

[goboatingnow]

No matter how u look at it the countries with death rates above about lower third are not handling the pandemic well , especially given that countries like Norway , Finland and Ireland shows that it can be done without highly aggressive lockdowns

[Dockhead]

Originally Posted by goboatingnow

No matter how u look at it the countries with death rates above about lower third are not handling the pandemic well , especially given that countries like Norway , Finland and Ireland shows that it can be done without highly aggressive lockdowns

You really can't say that. The death rate at any given moment is NOT a measure of how well the pandemic is being handled. We see again and again that a given combination of measures -- of "handling" the pandemic -- coincide with really good results for some time, then there is a big outbreak. Or in a different country totally different results. These outbreaks occur in a chaotic manner -- we do not have that much control over them with whatever measures, at least once we fail to stop community spread altogether.


So how is Norway and Finland "handling the pandemic well", whereas Sweden or Lithuania are not? Have a look in detail at the measures in all of these places and tell us the differences -- which exact measures are missing? You'll see that there have never been significant differences in pandemic measures between any of these countries at any time, and since the end of May, the pandemic measures are identical.



Furthermore, and I hate to say this, but tomorrow it may be Finland's or Norway's turn for a big second wave. Finland is already having a pretty big increase in cases -- if it accelerates, we could be whacked. There but for the grace of God go we. Latvia and Lithuania were among the 3 or 4 lowest infections rates in Europe all the way through August, with no first wave. Then Bam! Lithuania in just a few weeks has become one of the worst spots in the world.


We do not have that much control over this, once it's gone to community spread. We do the best we can and hope for the best. The good news is that all of Nordic and Baltic Region has had a reasonable outcome so far -- no where have hospitals been overwhelmed, so far nowhere have we had a really bad death rate. And we've done this with intelligent, moderate measures which have harmed the working poor much less than in other places. Now I just pray that it doesn't get completely out of hand and we somehow squeak through until the vaccine gets distributed. With the superb health systems in this part of the world, and relatively small populations, I have high hopes that vaccine distribution will be really efficient and really fast. Hoping.

[GordMay]

Originally Posted by Dockhead

You really can't say that. The death rate at any given moment is NOT a measure of how well the pandemic is being handled. ...

If the CFR isn't a good measure, then what is?
Rt?
Certainly not R0.
I think many scientists, like these, are looking at Rt:

“Impact assessment of non-pharmaceutical interventions against coronavirus disease 2019 and influenza in Hong Kong: an observational study” ~ by Prof Benjamin J Cowling, PhD, et al
“... We estimated the daily effective reproduction number (Rt) for COVID-19 and influenza A H1N1 to estimate changes in transmissibility over time ...”
➥ https://www.thelancet.com/journals/l...090-6/fulltext

[Exile]

Originally Posted by GordMay

If the CFR isn't a good measure, then what is?
Rt?
Certainly not R0.
I think many scientists, like these, are looking at Rt:

“Impact assessment of non-pharmaceutical interventions against coronavirus disease 2019 and influenza in Hong Kong: an observational study” ~ by Prof Benjamin J Cowling, PhD, et al
“... We estimated the daily effective reproduction number (Rt) for COVID-19 and influenza A H1N1 to estimate changes in transmissibility over time ...”
➥ https://www.thelancet.com/journals/l...090-6/fulltext

I think the point that was made is not that CFR is not a good measure, but that any measure at any particular point in time can skew how a particular country or region may be doing overall.

[Dockhead]

Originally Posted by GordMay

If the CFR isn't a good measure, then what is?
Rt?
Certainly not R0.
I think many scientists, like these, are looking at Rt:

“Impact assessment of non-pharmaceutical interventions against coronavirus disease 2019 and influenza in Hong Kong: an observational study” ~ by Prof Benjamin J Cowling, PhD, et al
“... We estimated the daily effective reproduction number (Rt) for COVID-19 and influenza A H1N1 to estimate changes in transmissibility over time ...”
➥ https://www.thelancet.com/journals/l...090-6/fulltext

Well, two things here. First of all, note that I said "at any given moment". No snapshot of one day of the pandemic tells you much. To really know how well any country got through this thing, we have to wait for it to be over, count up the direct impact (death, lasting health effects), count up the indirect impact (harm to children's education, unemployment, economic damage, indirectly caused death and health impacts) and only then you'll see how well "the country got through it".

Secondly -- how well the country got through the pandemic isn't entirely the effect of the measures taken. There are a lot of other factors involve, including pure luck.

So, it's really silly to say something like "on this day such and such a country has such and such a daily death rate; obviously they are handling it badly."

If you look at the first wave, for example, Ireland had periods with a far higher death rate than most other European countries:



And during all of October, the death rate in Ireland was higher than any Nordic or Baltic country:




The whole picture is more complex:



Sometimes this country has an outbreak, at another time it's another country.

You can't say from this that "Ireland handled it badly". We don't even know how well Ireland will get through this -- it's far from over. Much less do we know how good the measures were.

We need to be more modest with these pronouncements, in my opinion.

[Dockhead]

The situation today:



In our region, Lithuania, at over 800, is the real hot spot. We know that once the daily infection gets up to this high level increasing at this exponential rate, it turns into a really big outbreak.

Sweden is also worrying, knocking on 500, but Sweden has never had this really steep daily infection curve, so perhaps will stay somewhat under control there. Swedish measures were tightened a couple of weeks ago, with all the same recommendations from the spring plus a very strict limitation on gathering size. We shall see.

Elsewhere doesn't look so bad. We've got steady increase of cases in Finland; we are waiting for an outbreak. Estonia, Latvia over 200 but the expected explosion of cases hasn't happened yet. Nice to see that elsewhere in Europe many bad hot spots have gotten much, much better -- UK, France, Switzerland have all come way down -- definitely going the right way, and so the average daily infection rate in Europe has come way down from about 500 to about 320.

What concerns daily death rates:



Lithuania again is the most concerning in our region, but deaths seem to have peaked at around 6 which is really not that bad -- average in Europe today is 8. Belgium peaked at 18, and most countries outside our region have had over 10. Death rates elsewhere in the Nordic and Baltic region have been quite low throughout the second wave. Only Latvia has broken 3 so far. Sweden is below 2 today.

Germany is at 3.6, which is the highest it's ever been in Germany since the beginning of the pandemic. But this is still a pretty low rate, and infection rates are coming down in Germany. Germany has done far, far better than any other large European country, with impact (and measures) more like the Nordic countries, than like France or the UK.

UK death rates at 7.16 continue to rise, but that's still below the European average and infection rates are down dramatically in the UK, so death rates should peak. Doesn't seem all that bad.

So altogether: The second wave is clearly subsiding in Europe, EXCEPT for the Nordic & Baltic region, where the second wave started a month or so later than in the rest of Europe. Lithuania is being whacked, and it's not excluded that the rest of the region will still get a big outbreak. We shall see.

Just saw on BBC that distribution of vaccines in the UK is expected to start in the Spring sometime.

By the way, does no one question my use of the term "Nordic and Baltic Region"? I'm using it for a few different reasons (a) it's basically my cruising region when I'm not outside the Baltic Sea; (b) during this pandemic, these countries have nearly identical pandemic measures, and rather different from the rest of Europe;(c) it's the region where my Finnish mobile phone subscription works as if at home -- i.e., totally unlimited LTE data with no fair use limits; totally unlimited calls with no fair use. Also it actually is a kind of thing: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nordic-Baltic_Eight

[goboatingnow]

Originally Posted by Dockhead

Well, two things here. First of all, note that I said "at any given moment". No snapshot of one day of the pandemic tells you much. To really know how well any country got through this thing, we have to wait for it to be over, count up the direct impact (death, lasting health effects), count up the indirect impact (harm to children's education, unemployment, economic damage, indirectly caused death and health impacts) and only then you'll see how well "the country got through it".

Secondly -- how well the country got through the pandemic isn't entirely the effect of the measures taken. There are a lot of other factors involve, including pure luck.

So, it's really silly to say something like "on this day such and such a country has such and such a daily death rate; obviously they are handling it badly."

If you look at the first wave, for example, Ireland had periods with a far higher death rate than most other European countries:

Attachment 227818

And during all of October, the death rate in Ireland was higher than any Nordic or Baltic country:


Attachment 227819

The whole picture is more complex:

Attachment 227820

Sometimes this country has an outbreak, at another time it's another country.

You can't say from this that "Ireland handled it badly". We don't even know how well Ireland will get through this -- it's far from over. Much less do we know how good the measures were.

We need to be more modest with these pronouncements, in my opinion.

Ireland had one major mistake , and in the first wave it never protected its nursing homes as a result it has virtually all its deaths in those settings , it learned a harsh lesson

[Dockhead]

Originally Posted by goboatingnow

Ireland had one major mistake , and in the first wave it never protected its nursing homes as a result it has virtually all its deaths in those settings , it learned a harsh lesson

Well, the same in Sweden and a lot of other countries.


But I'm sure that's not the only mistake. Only when the dust settles after this is all over will we really understand it.

[Dockhead]

"Harsh but necessary" -- Lockdown Nordic style: https://www.helsinkitimes.fi/finland...many-ways.html

This is what we get today: recommended limitation of social contacts; recommended stop of private gatherings, recommended stop of travel within Finland. Municipal facilities including indoor sports, libraries, cultural centers closed or restricted service. High schools closed. No closing of restaurants, shops, or private sports or cultural facilities, but restaurants have restricted hours. Public gatherings limited to 10 people.

These are the exact same resctrictions as were introduced in Sweden two weeks ago; I have no doubt that there is some coordination going on between the health authorities.

It's going to be a grim winter. People follow the recommendations so no more dinner parties, nor more medieval dancing evenings. I can go to a restaurant but no one will go with me. Sigh.

[Dockhead]

I am watching the numbers like a hawk -- we are at a critical moment -- will the second wave take off in Northern Europe, or is it peaking?

Here is the situation today with daily infection rates:



I'm afraid there is no clear answer to my question. Sweden is possibly leveled off at just under 500. Or maybe just a short pause before taking off again. Lithuania is down a bit just for one day and is back below 700; but just one day doesn't tell us anything.

Latvia is having an outbreak -- up to nearly 300 and bad trend. Estonia with a shallower curve and about 250. Denmark and Finland rising slowly. I guess the Finnish numbers are somewhat encouraging, as we thought a big outbreak might be imminent, but that's the average of the whole country -- in Helsinki, cases have doubled in two weeks; not good.

It's great to see the excellent trend in the UK continues -- down almost to 200 from a peak near 500. The Brits have really broken the back of their pretty awful second wave; this is just fantastic to see that it's nearly over. Not on my chart, but France is even better -- down now to below 200 after a peak over 800 (!). Germany continues stable at just over 200, which is not a big rate, so very mild second wave there. Overall rate in the EU showing VERY good trend -- down to just over 300 after peaking near 500.

As to death:



Late reporting of data shows that Sweden was worse than we thought at nearly 4. But that's still half the current European average and not high at all compared to recent second wave figures in nearly all European countries outside of Northern Europe. Germany death rate has been rising slowly and is also near 4. It's great to see that despite the huge outbreak in Lithuania, death rate is still quite moderate at well under 6 (cf UK 7, France 8, Belgium 11.5 down from 17.7). The death rate in Estonia has been rising sharply, but with a shallow infection rate curve I expect this will peak soon, and the rate is quite reasonable at under 3.

So what does all this say about the second wave in the Nordic and Baltic region? If this is more or less the peak of it, then we have had a far milder second wave than any other part of Europe. Denmark had its second wave in September, the Baltic States plus Sweden are having theirs now; Norway and Finland haven't had any second wave yet. Finland might yet get a big outbreak; hope not. Baltic States plus Sweden could go either way -- we can't really say yet. We have considerably tightened anti-pandemic measures throughout the region -- I very much hope that they will have an effect. The measures are still Swedish-style everywhere in the Nordic and Baltic Region, meaning almost nothing is closed down and most of the measures are voluntary. But these are strong measures nonetheless, make no mistake. I'm hoping very much that they will be effective.

I'm watching the numbers with bated breath. We need a little luck to get through this while waiting for the vaccine.

[TeddyDiver]

Originally Posted by Dockhead

"Harsh but necessary" -- Lockdown Nordic style: https://www.helsinkitimes.fi/finland...many-ways.html

This is what we get today: recommended limitation of social contacts; recommended stop of private gatherings, recommended stop of travel within Finland. Municipal facilities including indoor sports, libraries, cultural centers closed or restricted service. High schools closed. No closing of restaurants, shops, or private sports or cultural facilities, but restaurants have restricted hours. Public gatherings limited to 10 people.

These are the exact same resctrictions as were introduced in Sweden two weeks ago; I have no doubt that there is some coordination going on between the health authorities.
... snip

Propably some coordinating too but the main reason for similar restrictions is the similarities of the law in both countries.

[Dockhead]

Originally Posted by TeddyDiver

Propably some coordinating too but the main reason for similar restrictions is the similarities of the law in both countries.

Yes, that's absolutely right. Blanket restrictions of movement like stay at home orders are forbidden by Swedish and Finnish constitutions so there could be no real lockdown here even if someone thought it was a good idea.

However, I think Finland may have a more flexible power to declare a state of emergency than Sweden, where the constitution specifically withholds the right of the government to declare a state of emergency in peacetime.


How are things up there where you are? We have had a sharp rise of cases in Helsinki and people are getting nervous.

[Dockhead]

The harshest of the new restrictions in Finland and Sweden is the ban on public events. The participant limit has been lowered from 100 to 10 (Finland) and 8 (Sweden). That's the end of cinema, theatre, conferences. Harsh indeed. This goes further than the measures in the Spring, which limited public events to, IIRC, 50 people.

[Atlanticsailing]

Best greetings to all from Long Island, Bahamas

Some of my friends think its nuts to exchange sailing locales from this technicolor paradise for Norway, but there is the best reason in the world to do so.... speculation happily accepted and the answer to be posted.

Meanwhile, advice/info/thoughts are sought as to cruising permits in Norway (summer) and winter land storage in Sweden.

I am told a foreign flagged vessel (my boat is registered in the USA) can get a cruising permit for about 3 months to sail Norwegian waters. A fee, naturally, is expected. Then the boat must leave Norwegian waters for XXX period of time before reentering and getting another permit.

Cruisers will recognize this as a pretty standard procedure, btw, here in the Bahamas. Arrive in early winter, get permit, depart in the spring, return perhaps next winter.

My question is about winter storage in Sweden, or Denmark for the winter, then return to Norway for the summer. Anybody out there have experience with this? I am planning on making this a multi-year experience, say for 5 years or so.

Thanks all, happy cruising and holidays!

Patrick

[Wotname]

Originally Posted by Atlanticsailing

Best greetings to all from Long Island, Bahamas

Some of my friends think its nuts to exchange sailing locales from this technicolor paradise for Norway, but there is the best reason in the world to do so.... speculation happily accepted and the answer to be posted............