Northern Europe during Pandemic -- Summers 2020 & 2021 & onwards

[Dockhead]

Meanwhile I'm writing this from a plane leaving Helsinki airport, my second flight through this airport in so many days.

Suddenly the airport is really crowded, and an astonishing sight - some crowds of Chinese tourists, some carrying skis. A lot of Russian spoken - apparently a bunch of Ukrainian guest workers going home for Christmas. Maybe some ethnic Russians going home to the Baltic States. Finnish people going on international holidays somewhere?

Makes me somewhat nervous.

[goboatingnow]

Dont worry the U.K. super Covid is in its way to u

[Dockhead]

Originally Posted by goboatingnow

Dont worry the U.K. super Covid is in its way to u

I presume you're right

There is a widespread feeling here in Finland that our luck will run out soon.

[goboatingnow]

Originally Posted by Dockhead

I presume you're right

There is a widespread feeling here in Finland that our luck will run out soon.

Rates in Ireland climbing , concern that U.K. variant already circulating

More voluntary lockdown measures coming here

[Dockhead]

Originally Posted by goboatingnow

Rates in Ireland climbing , concern that U.K. variant already circulating

More voluntary lockdown measures coming here

There but for the grace of God go all of us.


It's going to be an awfully grim winter.

[Macblaze]

Hey, you have 10 days and you have to change the title of the thread. Who would have thought...

[Seaworthy Lass]

Originally Posted by Dockhead

It's going to be an awfully grim winter.

That is an understatement! .

What a difference three days make!

You asked me a few days ago what it was like here in Scotland and the situation has now altered dramatically, particularly for those of us in regions where only Tier 1 restrictions currently apply.

Due to B117, the new SARS-CoV-2 variant, all of “mainland” Scotland regions are moving to Tier 4 on Boxing Day (Shetlands, Orkneys, Outer Hebrides and some of the islands to Tier 3) for a minimum of three weeks:
https://www.gov.scot/publications/co...ection-levels/

Tier 4 is the highest tier of restrictions currently. It is less strict than we had last spring (no restriction on keeping within 5km of home, time out of your residence is not limited, households can meet outdoors), but it is still fairly severe:
https://www.gov.scot/binaries/conten...4-measures.pdf

Christmas socialising in private homes has been cut from five days to just Christmas day itself. There is a ban on any non essential travel both to and from your tier (but not within).

Severe restrictions have also been imposed in England, commencing yesterday (Sunday 20th).

Scotland has also been hit with the blanket restrictions imposed on the entire UK regarding flights to more than 40 countries:
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-55391289

France has closed its border entirely to the UK for 48 hours and ferries and trucks (including those laden with fresh produce) have been stopped.

What an end to the year!

[Seaworthy Lass]

PS A very unusual move from Ireland as well:
For a minimum of 48 hours (Monday 21st & Tuesday 22nd Dec) “... in the interests of Public Health, people in Britain, regardless of nationality, should not travel to Ireland, by air or by sea”.

https://www.dfa.ie/irish-embassy/great-britain/

[goboatingnow]

Originally Posted by Seaworthy Lass

PS A very unusual move from Ireland as well:

For a minimum of 48 hours (Monday 21st & Tuesday 22nd Dec) “... in the interests of Public Health, people in Britain, regardless of nationality, should not travel to Ireland, by air or by sea”.



https://www.dfa.ie/irish-embassy/great-britain/

Yes unprecedented since the formation of the common travel area in 1925 and the restrictions last used in ww2 . Unlike France freight is still allowed

But then essentially travel is not now permitted into Scotland and Northern Ireland is investigating the Legality of closing its sea and airports to English travellers.

Of course you can fly London Belfast , and 1:30. Later be in Dublin !!!

Consular flights being arranged To bring nationals home tomorrow from London

Expectation is ban will extend till after Christmas

Ireland going to back county wide travel restrictions ( voluntary) immediately after Christmas. Closing Hospitality is a big debate as they have opened a week ago but looks like they will again be closed. Compensation package to cover spoiling of stock , plus continuation of staff Covid payments plus restart grants.

Widespread view here is this restriction may last to paddys day !

[Seaworthy Lass]

Originally Posted by goboatingnow

Yes unprecedented since the formation of the common travel area in 1925 and the restrictions last used in ww2 . Unlike France freight is still allowed

But then essentially travel is not now permitted into Scotland and Northern Ireland is investigating the Legality of closing its sea and airports to English travellers.

Of course you can fly London Belfast , and 1:30. Later be in Dublin !!!

Consular flights being arranged To bring nationals home tomorrow from London

Expectation is ban will extend till after Christmas

Ireland going to back county wide travel restrictions ( voluntary) immediately after Christmas. Closing Hospitality is a big debate as they have opened a week ago but looks like they will again be closed. Compensation package to cover spoiling of stock , plus continuation of staff Covid payments plus restart grants.

Widespread view here is this restriction may last to paddys day !

Businesses closing and reopening and closing again must be crippling! Particularly for those holding stock that spoils. Even all the retail stores that have put in measures to make their premises safer (screens at cashiers, hand sanitiser at the entry, restricted numbers, one way aisles etc) where limited customers are wearing masks and generally only visiting briefly, also need to close their doors.

As far as I am aware, stores have never been pinpointed as a common source of infection so given the detrimental economic impact, I am puzzled by this.

[Montanan]

Given that Brexit's transition period ends on December 31st, 2020, starting January 1, 2021, Britons will no longer be allowed to travel to the EU+ Area. Nationals of the UK were granted freedom of travel to the EU during the transition period after the UK left the EU. That temporary freedom ends in 10 days.

The UK is not on the list of six or eight countries from which persons are allowed to travel to the EU+ Area due to the Covid travel restrictions.

Only UK diplomats and certain truly essential travellers per a defined category will be availed visa for entry.

This flare up of a potentially more contagious virus strain just makes it even more difficult for the UKers to be availed reciprocity of travel in the foreseeable future. It will be quite a while before the UK's Covid rate lowers to the point that the EU will find the country safe to avail entry. This UK novel strain issue has just accelerated the EU+ area travel restriction by 10 days what was going to happen anyway due to Brexiting. Messes up some person's holiday travel plans but it really amounts to modest change in timing.

Welcome the post Brexit norm, stuck on islands cut off from the continent.

[Dockhead]

The situation in Northern Europe today is bad; the second wave rages on unabated everywhere:



Sweden and Denmark have passed 600 daily cases; Lithuania has passed 1000. Latvia has broken 400 and Estonia is not far behind.

As far as deaths are concerned:



Germany is the most striking, with deaths rising sharply to 7.8 per million, just above the European average. I guess this is the "dry tinder" effect -- unlike most of the rest of Europe, where there were a lot of deaths in the spring, Germany had almost none, so a lot of vulnerable people still, and these are now dying as the pandemic spreads much more widely than the first time.

Lithuania has broken 12 (Lithuania also had no first wave to speak of), Latvia and Sweden are bad at 6.9 and 6.8 respectively, Estonia and Denmark working on 3. With the very sharp increase of daily infections in Denmark, which has nearly overtaken Sweden, I would expect that death rate to keep rising.

The death rate here in Finland has exceeded 1 for the first time, by the way. Although our daily infection rate is still very low, and is actually slowly falling towards 50, there seem to be more serious cases, and hospitalizations are increasing. People are pretty nervous and the restrictions have ramped up.

Nordic health chiefs have all been saying this should peak around Christmas. But Christmas is two days away and there is no sign of it.

[Wotname]

My un-informed opinion is the peak will occur sometime after January 7.

My guess is regardless of advice and regulations, more people will congregate at Christmas and some will get infected. Most of the incubation occurs within 7 days and so the asymptomatic ones will also be gathering again on New Year Eve. Thus Christmas and New Year will both be super-spreading events.

I would very much like to be proved wrong.

[Dockhead]

Originally Posted by Wotname

My un-informed opinion is the peak will occur sometime after January 7.

My guess is regardless of advice and regulations, more people will congregate at Christmas and some will get infected. Most of the incubation occurs within 7 days and so the asymptomatic ones will also be gathering again on New Year Eve. Thus Christmas and New Year will both be super-spreading events.

I would very much like to be proved wrong.

My uninformed opinion coincides with yours. Looking at the shape of those curves, no way they peak this week. Hoping for the best here.

[skipmac]

Originally Posted by Dockhead

My uninformed opinion coincides with yours. Looking at the shape of those curves, no way they peak this week. Hoping for the best here.

As does mine and also the informed opinion of the medical experts in the US. I greatly fear that mid-late January things will indeed be grim.

Also a bit nervous about the economic impacts. The stock markets are booming, in part because interest rates are so low so most other investments are not very attractive but opinions are that the market has already accounted for the Covid effects. I also see signs of recovery in several industries. At least in the US home sales and new construction are at record levels. Have a friend who works for a multi billion dollar lumber and timber trading company and they report their best year ever. I see a boom in demand for raw materials, chemical feed stocks, etc and significant price increases almost across the board.

At the same time there is a huge backlog of rent and mortgage payments in the US that will have to resolve sooner or later when the ban on evictions expires. By some estimates as many as half of the privately owned restaurants and thousands of small stores and businesses may close permanently. What will be the long term economic impact of all this? Wish I had a crystal ball.

Getting ready to finish the bottom paint and launch. Time to self quarantine on the boat for a while.