Northern Europe during Pandemic -- Summers 2020 & 2021 & onwards

[Exile]

Originally Posted by Dockhead

My uninformed opinion coincides with yours. Looking at the shape of those curves, no way they peak this week. Hoping for the best here.

We were told long ago that the single greatest source of new infections was from the home. Makes sense given the vast increase of people staying/working from home, the prolonged exposure this necessarily entails, and the consequences of someone bringing the virus in from necessary/inevitable trips outside. Throw in all the travel over the holidays (albeit reduced no doubt from prior years), and it could portend a bad spike. Self-quarantining on one's boat for awhile (if possible) sounds prudent.

[TeddyDiver]

Originally Posted by skipmac

As does mine and also the informed opinion of the medical experts in the US. I greatly fear that mid-late January things will indeed be grim.

Also a bit nervous about the economic impacts. The stock markets are booming, in part because interest rates are so low so most other investments are not very attractive but opinions are that the market has already accounted for the Covid effects. I also see signs of recovery in several industries. At least in the US home sales and new construction are at record levels. Have a friend who works for a multi billion dollar lumber and timber trading company and they report their best year ever. I see a boom in demand for raw materials, chemical feed stocks, etc and significant price increases almost across the board.

At the same time there is a huge backlog of rent and mortgage payments in the US that will have to resolve sooner or later when the ban on evictions expires. By some estimates as many as half of the privately owned restaurants and thousands of small stores and businesses may close permanently. What will be the long term economic impact of all this? Wish I had a crystal ball.

Getting ready to finish the bottom paint and launch. Time to self quarantine on the boat for a while.

The same trend is present here. People can't travel much and many free time activities are under some kind restrictions so they use their money to home improvements, prepeirs and new builds..

[GordMay]

Sweden's government to get wider shutdown powers under proposed pandemic law
The Swedish government will have the power to close shopping centres and public transport from Jan. 10 and fine people who break the rules,under a new law proposed on Monday to help halt the spread of the coronavirus pandemic.
Up to now, Sweden has relied mainly on voluntary social distancing measures, setting it apart from most other countries in Europe where enforced lockdowns have been used to fight the COVID-19 virus.
"In very serious situations, the government will be able to decide on more extensive measures to prevent crowding," Health Minister Lena Hallengren told a news conference.
"That includes the closure of shops, public transport, shopping centres, or other kinds of businesses that fall under the new law."
The law will only stay in force until September unless renewed.
Sweden registered 6,609 new coronavirus cases on Wednesday last week.
It has now seen 8,279 COVID deaths, a rate per capita several times higher than that of its Nordic neighbours, but lower than several European countries that opted for lockdowns.

[Dockhead]

Originally Posted by GordMay

Sweden's government to get wider shutdown powers under proposed pandemic law
The Swedish government will have the power to close shopping centres and public transport from Jan. 10 and fine people who break the rules,under a new law proposed on Monday to help halt the spread of the coronavirus pandemic.
Up to now, Sweden has relied mainly on voluntary social distancing measures, setting it apart from most other countries in Europe where enforced lockdowns have been used to fight the COVID-19 virus.
"In very serious situations, the government will be able to decide on more extensive measures to prevent crowding," Health Minister Lena Hallengren told a news conference.
"That includes the closure of shops, public transport, shopping centres, or other kinds of businesses that fall under the new law."
The law will only stay in force until September unless renewed.
Sweden registered 6,609 new coronavirus cases on Wednesday last week.
It has now seen 8,279 COVID deaths, a rate per capita several times higher than that of its Nordic neighbours, but lower than several European countries that opted for lockdowns.

Yes, and to give some background on that:

"A new pandemic law that would give the Swedish government increased powers to fight the coronavirus outbreak is being fast-tracked to come into force in two weeks – if parliament signs off.

"The Swedish parliament has been recalled from its Christmas recess to process the government's bill in the first week of January. If approved, the temporary law would apply from January 10th until September, Health Minister Lena Hallengren told a press conference on Monday.
"When the idea for a new law to give the government more tools to tackle the pandemic was first proposed in October, ministers suggested it would not be ready until next summer. The date was then brought forward to mid-March amid a resurgence of the coronavirus in autumn and winter, and it has now been fast-tracked further.
"The law is meant to make it easier for the government to make decisions – or delegate such decisions to local authorities when appropriate – on limiting numbers at, or as a last resort closing, shopping centres and other venues, and limiting [not closing] public transport. People who break restrictions may be fined, said Hallengren.
"The government could also make decisions to limit the number of people allowed in for example a park or a public square, but it could not impose a curfew [or much less, a lockdown] which would go against Sweden's constitution which protects the right to free movement.
"The government's next step, if the bill is approved, will be to decide on legally binding rules for shops and shopping centres, said Business Minister Ibrahim Baylan. "Certain types of shopping venues, such as malls and department stores where the risk of spread of infection is high and where there is a lot of crowding," he said.
"The bill has now been submitted to the Council of Legislation and will after that be put to parliament for a vote in the new year. It was sent to 129 authorities and organisations for review in December, and Hallengren said the government had incorporated some of the feedback. This includes a two-week deadline before the government has to send a decision taken as part of these powers to parliament for review. It had originally asked for a month.
"Last time the government tried to push through a coronavirus crisis law, back in April, Sweden's opposition and the Council of Legislation criticised it as too vague, and managed to add an amendment which meant that the government would have to take any measures it imposed to parliament for review within a couple of days.
"The government argued that this requirement made the law in effect useless, and it expired in June without ever being used."

https://www.thelocal.se/20201228/swe...HMvlVBCjdr7gw4

A very interesting snapshot of Nordic political culture.



Imposing these kind of mandatory restrictions -- which would be considered pretty light in most parts of the world -- are considered up here to be a very serious infringements of personal freedom. The last time the government asked for such powers, back in April, parliament basically refused -- requiring the government to get parliament's permission with regard to each specific measure.



Parliament might refuse again -- it's very controversial.

[Seaworthy Lass]

From midnight tonight all of mainland Scotland is subject to a lockdown again, very similar to the one we had last spring:

“Mainland Scotland is to go into lockdown from midnight tonight with a new legal requirement forbidding anyone from leaving their home except for essential purposes.
Amongst the limited reasonable excuses to leave your home are provisions for caring, outdoor exercise and to go to work, but only if that work cannot be done from home.”

https://www.gov.scot/news/scotland-in-lockdown/

There is a lag in reported data for excess deaths, but these are still very low during this second wave. Scotland is no longer included in the Z-score graphs presented below, but last week the curve was a bit lower than England’s and a bit higher than for Wales:

https://www.euromomo.eu/graphs-and-maps

Any first hand reports regarding the Baltic region?

SWL

[Dockhead]

Originally Posted by Seaworthy Lass

. . . Any first hand reports regarding the Baltic region?

SWL

Yes -- situation is mixed here, and pretty bad in some places. No hard lockdown per se but there is a curfew in Latvia, and restaurants and many shops are closed. Daily new case rates fairly stable but high in Latvia and Estonia, somewhat over 400.



We don't know about Sweden because no data over the holidays. Denmark has come well down from the very high rates before Christmas, but still a fairly high rate of around 400.

Lithuania coming down from the astronomnical rates of over 1000 around Christmas.

Finland and Norway STILL dodging the second wave -- seems miraculous. Finland back under 50. Norway around 100. Germany fairly stable at around 200.

As to deaths:



Astronomical death rate in Lithuania; over 20, which I've never seen anywhere before. Has been very high in Latvia, over 10. Denmark and Estonia at around 5. Finland and Norway continue at a negligible rate. Death rate in Germany is stable and high -- 7.7. They had so little death during the spring wave, that I guess they still have many vulnerable people.

As to restrictions: Border crossing is fairly easy and is generally allowed subject to mostly voluntary quarantine. In Latvia quarantine is mandatory but not really supervised. You have to get an electonic "covidpass" which you show at the airport (and when crossing the border by car), but they don't seem to look at it. Finland does not technically let you in without a good reason, but almost anything other than pure tourism seems to be a good reason, so it's not so bad. In Finland more or less everything is open; I had a haircut there last week and dined with great pleasure in a restaurant. In Estonia they only just closed restaurants just before Christmas.

I think where this is headed, many European countries will end up with over 2 000 cumulative deaths per million and most over 1 000. This is not nearly over yet. The very sharp curve of daily infections in the UK is really alarming, and makes one shudder to think that the mutant virus really is 1.6x as infectious or whatever they said. God help us.

[Seaworthy Lass]

Originally Posted by Dockhead

The very sharp curve of daily infections in the UK is really alarming, and makes one shudder to think that the mutant virus really is 1.6x as infectious or whatever they said. God help us.

Even taking into account the lag between detected infections and reported deaths, the deaths are not increasing much in the UK. It may be an indication the variant B117 may not be as virulent. Or maybe the increase in numbers in the UK is mainly amongst those younger than 45 and deaths have always been extremely low in this group.

Lots of maybes.

Whether it is the impact of an increase in the number of people severely ill, or the impact of restrictions, I think the only certainty is that it will certainly be a harsh winter.

[Dockhead]

Originally Posted by Seaworthy Lass

Even taking into account the lag between detected infections and reported deaths, the deaths are not increasing much in the UK. It may be an indication the variant B117 may not be as virulent. Or maybe the increase in numbers in the UK is mainly amongst those younger than 45 and deaths have always been extremely low in this group.

Lots of maybes.

Whether it is the impact of an increase in the number of people severely ill, or the impact of restrictions, I think the only certainty is that it will certainly be a harsh winter.

Death rate in the UK is very high -- 9 -- and increasing, even as the daily infection rates continue rapid increase. And all this despite a really hard lockdown. To me this looks very very bad, and I can't help but think that this new strain is something really bad. Will the rest of Europe turn out like this, when it spreads? We shall see.

[goboatingnow]

Originally Posted by Dockhead

Death rate in the UK is very high -- 9 -- and increasing, even as the daily infection rates continue rapid increase. And all this despite a really hard lockdown. To me this looks very very bad, and I can't help but think that this new strain is something really bad. Will the rest of Europe turn out like this, when it spreads? We shall see.

Hancock , seems much more worried about the South African mutation

In Ireland , cases have mushroomed from 50 like Finland to 6100 a day with a 20% positivity rate , hospitalisation rising with the usual lag , it’s frightening what’s happening

5km travel restriction for non essential , but construction , and industry all open.

Schools now not going to open till end of January

Interesting

Scientists here do not attribute the rise to the Uk strain , even though evidence is it’s in the country

They suggest that it’s simply community transmission , the virus is embedded in the domestic community ( there is some suspicion that schools are acting as vectors. )

The public are seemingly clambering for even tougher measures !! . The public are seriously spooked by the numbers , the contact tracing has failed

Looking like lockdown till end of February

Good news is phizer have over delivered extra vaccines. ( having two huge plants here helps with contacts )

Lots of recriminations over the decisions to relax restrictions in the run up to Christmas

This is all far from over

[Dockhead]

Originally Posted by goboatingnow

Hancock , seems much more worried about the South African mutation

In Ireland , cases have mushroomed from 50 like Finland to 6100 a day with a 20% positivity rate , hospitalisation rising with the usual lag , it’s frightening what’s happening

5km travel restriction for non essential , but construction , and industry all open.

Schools now not going to open till end of January

Interesting

Scientists here do not attribute the rise to the Uk strain , even though evidence is it’s in the country

They suggest that it’s simply community transmission , the virus is embedded in the domestic community ( there is some suspicion that schools are acting as vectors. )

The public are seemingly clambering for even tougher measures !! . The public are seriously spooked by the numbers , the contact tracing has failed

Looking like lockdown till end of February

Good news is phizer have over delivered extra vaccines. ( having two huge plants here helps with contacts )

Lots of recriminations over the decisions to relax restrictions in the run up to Christmas

This is all far from over

Yikes. Wish you all the best possible luck. There but for the grace of God go all of us.

[Seaworthy Lass]

Originally Posted by Dockhead

Death rate in the UK is very high -- 9 -- and increasing, even as the daily infection rates continue rapid increase. And all this despite a really hard lockdown. To me this looks very very bad, and I can't help but think that this new strain is something really bad. Will the rest of Europe turn out like this, when it spreads? We shall see.

It was 6-7 a month ago though. Case numbers detected are climbing far more steeply than the numbers of deaths are. Deaths will lag around 3 weeks, so we won’t be seeing the full impact of this yet. Fingers crossed this does not start to shoot up.

Winter is typically the time deaths increase (not simply from influenza) and although some European countries are showing numbers considerably higher than expected at this time of year (eg Switzerland, Slovenia, Austria, Belgium), the UK is only showing a very slight rise compared to the last 5 years. It seems to me that in the UK most of the elderly who would normally die from other causes this winter are dying from COVID-19.

This is, however, impacting the NHS terribly, as these severely ill people are being hospitalised. It seems some of the Nightingale hospitals that were built in spring may be reopening. The problem is staffing these. Same issue that kept them empty in spring.

[goboatingnow]

Originally Posted by Seaworthy Lass

It was 6-7 a month ago though. Case numbers detected are climbing far more steeply than the numbers of deaths are. Deaths will lag around 3 weeks, so we won’t be seeing the full impact of this yet. Fingers crossed this does not start to shoot up.

Winter is typically the time deaths increase (not simply from influenza) and although some European countries are showing numbers considerably higher than expected at this time of year (eg Switzerland, Slovenia, Austria, Belgium), the UK is only showing a very slight rise compared to the last 5 years. It seems to me that in the UK most of the elderly who would normally die from other causes this winter are dying from COVID-19.

This is, however, impacting the NHS terribly, as these severely ill people are being hospitalised. It seems some of the Nightingale hospitals that were built in spring may be reopening. The problem is staffing these. Same issue that kept them empty in spring.

I’m not sure what facts you’re using to make a rather strange claim

I attach a from a recent report from the the national statistics office , which compares 5 year flu deaths to Covid in 2020 ( excluding recent stats )

[goboatingnow]

Originally Posted by Seaworthy Lass

It was 6-7 a month ago though. Case numbers detected are climbing far more steeply than the numbers of deaths are. Deaths will lag around 3 weeks, so we won’t be seeing the full impact of this yet. Fingers crossed this does not start to shoot up.

Winter is typically the time deaths increase (not simply from influenza) and although some European countries are showing numbers considerably higher than expected at this time of year (eg Switzerland, Slovenia, Austria, Belgium), the UK is only showing a very slight rise compared to the last 5 years. It seems to me that in the UK most of the elderly who would normally die from other causes this winter are dying from COVID-19.

This is, however, impacting the NHS terribly, as these severely ill people are being hospitalised. It seems some of the Nightingale hospitals that were built in spring may be reopening. The problem is staffing these. Same issue that kept them empty in spring.

I’m not sure what facts you’re using to make a rather strange claim

I attach a from a recent report from the the national statistics office , which compares 5 year flu deaths to Covid in 2020 ( excluding recent stats )

Clearly it disputes directly what you claim, COVID when it runs Rampant is a killer

[Seaworthy Lass]

Originally Posted by goboatingnow

I’m not sure what facts you’re using to make a rather strange claim

I attach a from a recent report from the the national statistics office , which compares 5 year flu deaths to Covid in 2020 ( excluding recent stats )

The increase in deaths over winter is only partially due to influenza. You have only presented influenza data.

The most comprehensive stats I have found are from Euromono:
https://www.euromomo.eu/graphs-and-maps

Data from Statista lags a couple of weeks, but also shows that excess deaths for England and Wales are not dramatic so far this winter:
https://www.statista.com/statistics/...and-and-wales/

Excess death data from a UK government we site regarding excess deaths show this to have been roughly between 25,000 and 50,000 each winter during the last 50 years:
https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulat...017to2018final

Prior to this winter:
“ Generally, historical trends in EWD in England and Wales show that the steady decreases since the 1950 to 1951 winter period have levelled off and most recently increased for the third consecutive year.”

[Dockhead]

Originally Posted by Seaworthy Lass

. . . Winter is typically the time deaths increase (not simply from influenza) and although some European countries are showing numbers considerably higher than expected at this time of year (eg Switzerland, Slovenia, Austria, Belgium), the UK is only showing a very slight rise compared to the last 5 years. It seems to me that in the UK most of the elderly who would normally die from other causes this winter are dying from COVID-19.. .

Well, you've dug into it to a level deeper than I have been. You are right that we need excess mortality for context. So only slight excess mortality in the UK even now? That puts a very different light on it.