Northern Europe during Pandemic -- Summers 2020 & 2021 & onwards

[Seaworthy Lass]

Originally Posted by Dockhead

And here's so you know I wasn't lying about kale for €28.50 per kg in Finland:
Attachment 230185

WOW!!!!!
And I thought Melbourne prices were sky high!

You need to start a new business

[Dockhead]

Originally Posted by Seaworthy Lass

WOW!!!!!
And I thought Melbourne prices were sky high!

You need to start a new business

Food distribution in Finland is a racket, run by a tight oligopoly of only 3 players. One reason why the Helsinki-Tallinn ferry route is the busiest in the world, is crowds of Finns going to Estonia to shop, especially for alcohol, but also to fill their car boots up with groceries. A liter of Beefeater gin is like €50 in Helsinki; in Tallinn it's usually about €18. A can of Schweppes tonic is like €2.60.

[UFO]

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-55612865


That does not look good, I already personally know of quite a few businesses that have gone under in the UK and Australia because of this. Also a friends Dad in the UK committed suicide when his business he had had for years went under

[Seaworthy Lass]

Scotland is doing reasonably well at the moment.

Numbers of deaths have been dropping for the last 5 weeks, not rising, despite the proximity to England. Excess deaths are still very low for the second wave looking at both the Euromomo website (the data for Scotland is in the second last graph at the very bottom of that page):
https://www.euromomo.eu/graphs-and-maps

and the Scottish government website:
https://data.gov.scot/coronavirus-co...il.html#deaths

Hospital admissions have been fairly stable for about 6 weeks now. This is the critical bit in my view. Vaccinations are increasing and I am starting to feel very optimistic that here at least the race against the most contagious B117 variant will be won.

I have attached a couple of graphs from the Scottish gov website linked above (updated today). The axes are self evident:

[Dockhead]

Originally Posted by Seaworthy Lass

Scotland is doing reasonably well at the moment.

Numbers of deaths have been dropping for the last 5 weeks, not rising, despite the proximity to England. Excess deaths are still very low for the second wave looking at both the Euromomo website (the data for Scotland is in the second last graph at the very bottom of that page):
https://www.euromomo.eu/graphs-and-maps

and the Scottish government website:
https://data.gov.scot/coronavirus-co...il.html#deaths

Hospital admissions have been fairly stable for about 6 weeks now. This is the critical bit in my view. Vaccinations are increasing and I am starting to feel very optimistic that here at least the race against the most contagious B117 variant will be won.

I have attached a couple of graphs from the Scottish gov website linked above (updated today). The axes are self evident:

A glimmer of hope; thanks for posting this.


This picture is similar to Denmark's -- Denmark had for a time the worst outbreak in the Nordic region, but the daily infection rate has been declining for weeks and death rate never amounted to much. Looks like they dodged the bullet, maybe.


Finland has miraculously avoided the second wave altogether -- we are back below 50 per million daily cases, never having exceeded 100, and life goes on almost completely normally. I was the only person in the shop wearing a mask yesterday.



Norway is still somewhat good but has steadily increasing daily cases, now well over 100.


Elsewhere it's much worse -- Sweden continues with a very high daily case rate, and death rate is back to almost 10 per million. Lithuania has got its daily case rate way down but death rate is still astronomical at over 30 per million. Latvia with terrible death rate of about 13 and still rising. Germany very bad with over 10 daily deaths per million, although the daily case rate is modest (maybe they're testing less).



Altogether not a very pretty picture. Praying for those curves to turn down at last.

[Dockhead]

I look at COVID deaths per million every day, but SWL has made the important point that this statistic is inherently flawed because deaths are being counted in different ways in different countries, and no account is made of deaths which are merely associated with a COVID test but would have happened anyway.


To that end she looks at the EuroMOMO excess death charts, which I agree give a better picture. This map is particularly helpful for a general overview:





During Week 52 2020 (last week available at the moment) you can see that Europe doesn't look as bad as might think, with really high excess only in Switzerland and Slovenia, with only moderate excess death in UK, Benelux, Italy, Portugal, and only slight excess death in France, Greece, Denmark, and Estonia.


In our region, Denmark and Estonia are experiencing slight excess death while Sweden, Norway, Finland are experiencing no excess death (there is no data for Latvia or Lithuania or Germany). Nor is there any excess death in Ireland or Scotland.



This looks somewhat better and is really useful perspective.

[Seaworthy Lass]

Originally Posted by Dockhead

I look at COVID deaths per million every day, but SWL has made the important point that this statistic is inherently flawed because deaths are being counted in different ways in different countries, and no account is made of deaths which are merely associated with a COVID test but would have happened anyway.

To that end she looks at the EuroMOMO excess death charts, which I agree give a better picture. This map is particularly helpful for a general overview:

Attachment 230243

During Week 52 2020 (last week available at the moment) you can see that Europe doesn't look as bad as might think, with really high excess only in Switzerland and Slovenia, with only moderate excess death in UK, Benelux, Italy, Portugal, and only slight excess death in France, Greece, Denmark, and Estonia.

In our region, Denmark and Estonia are experiencing slight excess death while Sweden, Norway, Finland are experiencing no excess death (there is no data for Latvia or Lithuania or Germany). Nor is there any excess death in Ireland or Scotland.

This looks somewhat better and is really useful perspective.

Although it only tells a partial tale, in the absence of any other major events occurring I think that the data for excess deaths gives us our best easy means of looking at the overall severity of the pandemic, particularly if the figures are analysed by different age groups. The Euromono website also does this.

It would be quite a different scenario if the excess deaths were also occurring in the young, as they can be with many infections including influenza. As you have pointed out earlier in this thread (and as Cummins did in the link UFO provided), life years lost is an important consideration.

I think we may find the deaths are much lower next year, unless delayed treatment of other conditions such as cancer and vascular disease has an impact. A phenomenon harshly called “harvesting” occurs when there has been a year or two with lower deaths and the numbers catch up the subsequent year. The converse also occurs.

I haven’t seen a lot of data, but “long covid” unfortunately does seem to be emerging as a significant issue (as can occur with many viruses including the very common Epstein-Barr that causes “mono”), so deaths are just one consideration when looking at the direct impact of being infected. Post viral problems do not spare the young (in fact the opposite may occur), and these can last several months. We do not know yet if all cases will resolve, but the odds are that they will not. Other serious problems may also subsequently crop up.

The list of conditions viral infections can cause or are suspected to cause is extensive. This article gives a quick overview:
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/books/NBK83680/

In my view this is good personal reason for someone young (eg under 40) to get vaccinated once all the trials are completed and vaccines are no longer approved simply for “emergency use”, even if they feel their risk of dying is minuscule if they contract the disease and even if they do not want to help contribute to herd immunity.

[Dockhead]

Originally Posted by Seaworthy Lass

. . . I think we may find the deaths are much lower next year, unless delayed treatment of other conditions such as cancer and vascular disease has an impact. A phenomenon harshly called “harvesting” occurs when there has been a year or two with lower deaths and the numbers catch up the subsequent year. The converse also occurs.

Yes, referred to as the "dry tinder effect" in some scientific papers. This is one reason why there is such a big difference between the official COVID death rate in Sweden, which is slightly above the European average and far higher than other Nordic countries, and the excess deaths in Sweden, which are hardly above normal for the year and in line with other Nordic countries. Death rate was unusual low for months prior to the start of the pandemic and was below normal between the first and second waves, too. It means that an unusually large number of deaths in Sweden were just deaths moved around by a few months. Contrast with for example Switzerland which has somewhat higher official death COVID death rate than Sweden but far higher excess death.

Originally Posted by Seaworthy Lass

. . .I haven’t seen a lot of data, but “long covid” unfortunately does seem to be emerging as a significant issue (as can occur with many viruses including the very common Epstein-Barr that causes “mono”), so deaths are just one consideration when looking at the direct impact of being infected. Post viral problems do not spare the young (in fact the opposite may occur), and these can last several months. We do not know yet if all cases will resolve, but the odds are that they will not. Other serious problems may also subsequently crop up.

Indeed. I feel pretty lucky not to have any signs of "long COVID" despite having had a fairly severe case.

Originally Posted by Seaworthy Lass

In my view this is good personal reason for someone young (eg under 40) to get vaccinated once all the trials are completed and vaccines are no longer approved simply for “emergency use”, even if they feel their risk of dying is minuscule if they contract the disease and even if they do not want to help contribute to herd immunity.

I agree wholeheartedly. I can't wait to get vaccinated myself, even though I am likely still immune. I think objectively any risks from the vaccines, emergency approval or not, are miniscule compared to risks from the disease, even for young people, plus it is crucially important to vaccinate people with a lot of social interaction -- which includes a lot of young people. I personally think it is madness to be vaccinating nursing home residents first of all. They should vaccinate the STAFF first of all, and all front line medical personnel. Then they should be vaccinating in whatever way will stop the pandemic faster, shutting down the stronger vectors of community transmission -- i.e. essential workers, and the rest of the 20% who account for 80% of social interaction according to the 80/20 Rule. In the long run that will surely save more lives. I guess I'm wrong about this since none of the health authorities seems to agree with me.

[Seaworthy Lass]

Originally Posted by Dockhead

I personally think it is madness to be vaccinating nursing home residents first of all. They should vaccinate the STAFF first of all, and all front line medical personnel. Then they should be vaccinating in whatever way will stop the pandemic faster, shutting down the stronger vectors of community transmission -- i.e. essential workers, and the rest of the 20% who account for 80% of social interaction according to the 80/20 Rule. In the long run that will surely save more lives. I guess I'm wrong about this since none of the health authorities seems to agree with me.

In the UK the vaccine is being offered equally to all the following:
“people aged 80 and over
people who live or work in care homes
health and social care workers at high risk”

I think the reason the health authorities are prioritising these vulnerable groups is that there is no data yet (or at least there isn’t for the Pfizer vaccine, I haven’t looked at all the trials in detail) that the vaccines actually prevent infection and transmission, just that they are effective at preventing symptoms.

So someone vaccinated may be symptom free, but infected and transmitting the virus. The researchers think this is not very likely, but there is simply no data to confirm this. Infection rates in those people vaccinated is only now being examined.

[Dockhead]

Originally Posted by Seaworthy Lass

. . . I think the reason the health authorities are prioritising these vulnerable groups is that there is no data yet (or at least there isn’t for the Pfizer vaccine, I haven’t looked at all the trials in detail) that the vaccines actually prevent infection and transmission, just that they are effective at preventing symptoms.

So someone vaccinated may be symptom free, but infected and transmitting the virus. The researchers think this is not very likely, but there is simply no data to confirm this. Infection rates in those people vaccinated is only now being examined.

If it's considered unlikely, then why would they be letting such a notion drive policy? Doesn't make any sense to me.


How often does it happen that a vaccine can prevent symptoms but still allow you to be infected and infectuous? This seems really far-fetched to me.

[Seaworthy Lass]

Originally Posted by Dockhead

If it's considered unlikely, then why would they be letting such a notion drive policy? Doesn't make any sense to me.

How often does it happen that a vaccine can prevent symptoms but still allow you to be infected and infectuous? This seems really far-fetched to me.

Not far fetched at all. Vaccines prevent disease, not necessarily infection. The immunity you have developed will help fight the infection. As a result you may have no symptoms or only mild ones. I will see what I can find for you regarding this.

[Montanan]

Doctors are warning that you should stop using ibuprofen and acetaminophen before getting your COVID vaccine.

The University of California Irvine warns that "taking over-the-counter medications such as acetaminophen and ibuprofen before receiving a COVID vaccine may reduce its ability to work and blunt your immune response to the vaccine." That's because "these Over The Counter medications work as anti-inflammatories and block a pathway called the cyclooxygenase-2 (cox-2) enzyme," says Ashley Ellis, PharmD, director of clinical operations for Compwell. These enzymes are necessary for your body to be able to produce a high volume of "B-lymphocytes, which downstream make antibodies to COVID, the flu, or whichever pathogen the vaccine is trying to protect against."

Ibuprofen is sold under brand names like Advil and Motrin, while acetaminophen is sold under the brand name Tylenol, among others.

[goboatingnow]

Well, here in Ireland we are paying royally for easing back at Christmas. We have shot up from 2nd lowest after Iceland to the worlds highest per capita case rates. For the first time police have now the power to issue fines for breaking the 5km limit after thousands of people went up to the snow line in the Dublin mountains ignoring the
5km limit

We are expecting flight ban into all EU countries tomorrow

Jeez

[Dockhead]

Originally Posted by Seaworthy Lass

Not far fetched at all. Vaccines prevent disease, not necessarily infection. The immunity you have developed will help fight the infection. As a result you may have no symptoms or only mild ones. I will see what I can find for you regarding this.

Please do; I'm glad to be educated.


But this would be really bad, wouldn't it? So no herd immunity?

[Dockhead]

Originally Posted by goboatingnow

Well, here in Ireland we are paying royally for easing back at Christmas. We have shot up from 2nd lowest after Iceland to the worlds highest per capita case rates. For the first time police have now the power to issue fines for breaking the 5km limit after thousands of people went up to the snow line in the Dublin mountains ignoring the
5km limit

We are expecting flight ban into all EU countries tomorrow

Jeez

Saying a prayer for you guys in Ireland.


But how can it be just from Christmas? We had normal Christmas here; practically no restrictions. Restaurants open.