The end game: What is the future of travel between contained and endemic countries?

[Wallaby]

With a number of variables, all with uncertain outcomes(interacting and compounding consequences), reliable prediction is close to impossible. Instead, you get hopes for the future based on beliefs and 'iffy' assumptions. So far the responses range from optimistic to pessimistic--pick what you want to believe.


Mike OReilly is right: it's way too early! In fact, if you include economic consequences, his 2-5 year time frame might become 5-10 years.

[Dave22q]

To save the travel industry we need to require proof of a negative test within a day or 2 of boarding for cruise ships and airlines. That would include domestic and foreign boardings. Hotels would have a similar requirement at registration. Penalties for forgery should be severe. Marinas, camp grounds and mooring fields could do the same. No recent card, require same day COVID test.
Possibly add a full refund requirement if traveler tests positive and needs to cancel.
I agree this would be a PITY but see no reasonable alternative.

[boat driver]

The better update on the virus here at John Hopkins University in MD.

https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/data

As far as future Quarantine and travel- it will be back in the near future as countries get themselves under control.
No different than any other pandemic over history. This might take a year to get a vaccine, but it to shall pass. Ebola, Yellow Fever, etc.
Some countries require certain vaccines and shots. So I would not long term be concered, but this season will continue to be disrupted.
Like commercial vessels, travel will be based on being forthcoming on the health of vessel crew and the contents of the vessel. i.e. fruits. bugs, wood, etc.
This is not new, just a present reminder. Ebola ravaged and fear it would expand, SARS, MERS, etc. This bug just escaped.

[letsgetsailing3]

Originally Posted by Dave22q

To save the travel industry we need to require proof of a negative test within a day or 2 of boarding for cruise ships and airlines. That would include domestic and foreign boardings. Hotels would have a similar requirement at registration. Penalties for forgery should be severe. Marinas, camp grounds and mooring fields could do the same. No recent card, require same day COVID test.
Possibly add a full refund requirement if traveler tests positive and needs to cancel.
I agree this would be a PITY but see no reasonable alternative.

Sure, but how fun is a cruise ship if you can't stop anywhere? That seems like a serious challenge.

[Wallaby]

Originally Posted by Dave22q

To save the travel industry we need to require proof of a negative test within a day or 2 of boarding for cruise ships and airlines. That would include domestic and foreign boardings. Hotels would have a similar requirement at registration....

Saving the travel industry is low on my priorities. It is the industry most responsible for conveying the virus around the world.

[Thumbs Up]

Originally Posted by AllenRbrts

Attachment 212435

This is a mass grave in New York, when was the last time the US did this? What if this scene was repeated across the US? New York delayed in locking down the city dooming many but eventually they locked the city down saving many many more.
There was a study that looked at the economic recovery following the 1918 flu which showed those cities which locked down had better economic recovery after the flu passed than those that didn’t. I guess dead people don’t spend much.

Interment on Hart island is ongoing. I read that there are over a million bodies buried there.

[letsgetsailing3]

Originally Posted by Wallaby

Saving the travel industry is low on my priorities. It is the industry most responsible for conveying the virus around the world.

That seems a bit unfair.

Their job is to transport people. People were traveling who may not have even known they were sick.

If we want world transport, and we do, this is always part of the risk.


If you shut down all risk, you get no transport of any kind.

[dberdou]

Looks like all data about contagion, sick and dead is quite confusing.
Testing is done to what population percentage? Of what age spreads? What sex and health conditions? And so on...

Apparently most testing statistics are just on people with symptoms!
So what is the death rate we are so worried about?

Is this real? Some French numbers speak the opposite. As shown below.
In my perception we are being induced to the worse.

May be we should fully request real information or in its absence to fully open borders, navigation, and the ailing world economy.
I'm 66 and will take care not to get sick if possible.

My five kids are well, with savings but feel all is going down to hell ... Is this reasonable? What about the young and healthy with no savings? Should they starve, rob, kiss the hands of central bankers and politicians!?

The young are at a point of probably no return for their generation!
Just for a few people my age?

[Wallaby]

Originally Posted by letsgetsailing3

That seems a bit unfair.

Their job is to transport people. People were traveling who may not have even known they were sick.

If we want world transport, and we do, this is always part of the risk.


If you shut down all risk, you get no transport of any kind.

Do you think we could differentiate between essential travel and recreational travel?



The risk is large until there is an effective vaccine. Herd immunity comes only when enough of the herd has survived the disease. We are far from that stage. Continued outbreaks are the greatest fear at present. Today New York, next week Savannah, the week after, Cincinnati...



Maybe it is me, but I find it hard to believe that the cruise ship industry adds enough to society to justify the risk of continuing contagion.

[slug]

Originally Posted by letsgetsailing3

That seems a bit unfair.

Their job is to transport people. People were traveling who may not have even known they were sick.

If we want world transport, and we do, this is always part of the risk.


If you shut down all risk, you get no transport of any kind.

Mobility , the movement of people on a huge scale , is how the modern economy and society functions

You simply can’t shut it down

To make this movement of people safe many personal freedoms will be infringed

[rbk]

Originally Posted by Mike OReilly

As far as making any sense of things, I think it is way too early to be drawing conclusions about the best, or right responses. We are awash in unverified and questionable data. There's few baselines on which to make rational assessments. We really can't tell much definitively.

I expect it will take two to five years to really digest what we are living through. The best that can be said right now is that this disease is highly contagious, and quite virulent. It deserves a serious response, but we should not be scared into a massive over-reaction.

I think one of the biggest misconceptions and is due mostly in part to governments not being truly clear on the matter is when asked ‘how long until things go back to normal’ the response is a year or more. This is a broad sweeping generalized safe response. The public interprets that as ‘we all have to stay in our houses for a year or two!’ When in reality parts of countries will start relaxing restrictions much sooner, other parts not so much. International travel will also be interrupted to certain areas for a long period, others not so much. This isn’t a one model fits all.
I also think one of the most dangerous phrases being casually thrown about is ‘this is the new normal’ absolute bs, this is not the new normal and we should not even consider this. These are temporary measures, even if some of them last a year or more. We cannot let our civil liberties and freedoms be repressed so easily and cheer and applaud those imposing them. Same goes for those proposing health clearance for work and travel, this is a very slippery slope to be playing on.

[TigerPaws]

First let me state that I am over 66 now, I have no underlying health conditions, I retired from the Military and cashed out my retirement and investments after 35 years of service then left the U.S. returning rarely over the past number of years. I have lived on my boat traveling up and down the Caribbean depending on the weather and my mood, never staying in one place for more than a several weeks at a time.

All that said I do believe the virus is real but this is not a Pandemic but a Planned-demic, as a small bit of proof I direct you to http://www.centerforhealthsecurity.o...nterScript.pdf and to

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3bXWGxhd7ic

as a start. Was the virus genetically engineered? Likely. Was it released on purpose or by accident? That is now a mute point. Is the virus deadly? That depends on who you are and what if any underlying or unknown health condition you may have. Is this current virus more deadly than past outbreaks (think 1968 flu, 1975 swine flu, H2N1 and more)? Not of you look at the historical data. So why is basically the whole world on lock down?

There is far more at play with this virus lock down than you are being told but that is not the point there are forces at work far above our pay grades so we can only survive as best that we are able, life will not return to what we accepted as normal before all of this began.

I am here in a sheltered and secluded anchorage near Tobago, I have enough supplies (and fine Dark Rum) to last me for many months to come, the locals are happy to supply me with fresh vegetables, fruit, meat and whatever else I need. Unfortunately I have been here longer than I would like but the entities within certain alphabet soup who would like to have a discussion with me are busy elsewhere right now so I an relatively secure for the moment.

I have been in shortwave radio contact with a number of other boats in the region and most seem to be weathering this storm fairly well though some are beginning to feel the financial pinch because they are dependent on how well the markets are doing back in the states.

For those of you who have read this so far please understand that the global economies will begin to open up within the next 6 weeks or so but that 45% to 50% of all businesses will not come back and there is no pent up demand for consumer goods. 17 Million Americans (and counting) are in dire financial straits and without jobs they will not be spending on anything except the bare necessities. Those companies that are able to open will see significantly lower consumer spending putting even more pressure on their ability to stay open. The world you knew on February 1, 2020 will not return in your children's lifetime, get used to the new normal, you should expect another big downturn in the global economy late this year or possibly as late as early next year. If you think this downturn is bad the next will be catastrophic.

For those of you who are able to sell and cash out, get into physical Gold and Silver, remember if you do not have it in your hands you do not own it. If you have a Bluewater Seaworthy boat seriously consider stocking up on supplies and sailing to what you believe will be a safe location because things are going to get bad, very bad.

[letsgetsailing3]

Originally Posted by TigerPaws

I have been in shortwave radio contact with a number of other boats in the region and most seem to be weathering this storm fairly well though some are beginning to feel the financial pinch because they are dependent on how well the markets are doing back in the states.

Longer term, I get it, but your five year plan shouldn't give a rip about the markets.

I get the alarmism, but economies aren't going to wait forever on a virus that can be somewhat controlled with social distancing. Seems to me that half of businesses are still operating in a lot of places. So the effect isn't going to be uniform.

[slug]

Originally Posted by rbk

I think one of the biggest misconceptions and is due mostly in part to governments not being truly clear on the matter is when asked ‘how long until things go back to normal’ the response is a year or more. This is a broad sweeping generalized safe response. The public interprets that as ‘we all have to stay in our houses for a year or two!’ When in reality parts of countries will start relaxing restrictions much sooner, other parts not so much. International travel will also be interrupted to certain areas for a long period, others not so much. This isn’t a one model fits all.
I also think one of the most dangerous phrases being casually thrown about is ‘this is the new normal’ absolute bs, this is not the new normal and we should not even consider this. These are temporary measures, even if some of them last a year or more. We cannot let our civil liberties and freedoms be repressed so easily and cheer and applaud those imposing them. Same goes for those proposing health clearance for work and travel, this is a very slippery slope to be playing on.

You will sacrifice civil liberties if you expect society to function

I suspect the same system used in Asia

A smart phone application that permits movement of safe people and lockdown of unsafe people

[MAJICDAN]

I thought that we were not going to talk politics!!!