The Reality of Living in Australia and Covid

[RaymondR]

We've had about 1000 deaths in Australia. In a population of 25,000.000 that's 1000/25,000,000=0.004 percent.

[Dockhead]

Originally Posted by Wotname

. . . However my gut feeling is if we get death rates anywhere near 0.5 per million, our hospitals will be in freefall; that's five times more than currently.

We keep hearing the various health systems have contingency plans but in the past similar promises were never delivered - can't see any reason to believe different this time.

I doubt it. You've got a long ways to go before you get to that situation.

I'm not aware of any developed country which was having a really bad stress on hospitals with death rates under 5 per million. Most European countries experienced >10 per million at some point or another, and it was really awful only in Italy and Spain; maybe somewhat in the UK. "Awful" meaning people being turned away from hospitals in significant numbers and dying without care.

And that was all before significant levels of vaccination. Even though you are well behind the rest of the developed world in vaccination, at >25% you've nevertheless already got the great bulk of vulnerable people I should think. That will significantly affect hospitalization rates.

I'm sure you'll be fine.

[Dockhead]

Originally Posted by RaymondR

We've had about 1000 deaths in Australia. In a population of 25,000.000 that's 1000/25,000,000=0.004 percent.

We're talking about daily death rates, not cumulative deaths. You're now experiencing 5 or 6 deaths a day, which is a daily rate of about 0.12 or so.

This will increase now that the virus is spreading out of control in the population, something you haven't really experienced before now.


Deaths rates should be seriously mitigated by the amount of vaccination you've managed to do by now, but I still wouldn't be surprised if you start seeing daily deaths of 1 per million in the next few weeks.

[El Pinguino]

Originally Posted by Dockhead

We're talking about daily death rates, not cumulative deaths. You're now experiencing 5 or 6 deaths a day, which is a daily rate of about 0.12 or so.

This will increase now that the virus is spreading out of control in the population, something you haven't really experienced before now.


Deaths rates should be seriously mitigated by the amount of vaccination you've managed to do by now, but I still wouldn't be surprised if you start seeing daily deaths of 1 per million in the next few weeks.

Which population is that happening in?

New cases in NSW would appear to have stabilised - fingers crossed.

Queensland ? Nope not out of control there.

Victoria ? Nope not there either - nor WA , SA, or Tas where it is zero per mil 'cases' per day.

NSW is already at 1 per mill per day - depending on the day. Deaths 'with ' Covid bounce around between 2 and 6.

I wish I knew as much about Finland as you appear to know about Australia.

[El Pinguino]

Even in Shep we seem to have given Delta a kick in the goolies. And all of today's 9 cases were already in isolation.

This is essentialy the one and only Delta outbreak in the state of Victoria outside of metropolitan Melbourne.

Shep is a reasonably large - by local standards - rural city maybe cupla hundred klicks north of Melb and the same distance west of Campo de Pingo.

https://covidlive.com.au/vic/greater-shepparton

[Dockhead]

Originally Posted by El Pinguino

Which population is that happening in?

New cases in NSW would appear to have stabilised - fingers crossed.

Queensland ? Nope not out of control there.

Victoria ? Nope not there either - nor WA , SA, or Tas where it is zero per mil 'cases' per day.

NSW is already at 1 per mill per day - depending on the day. Deaths 'with ' Covid bounce around between 2 and 6.

I wish I knew as much about Finland as you appear to know about Australia.

I only know what I read -- and what I read was that there is even an official change of policy due to the uncontrollability of the delta variant. The Premier of NSW recently said that "We can't pretend we will have zero cases." Contact tracing in Australia, or at least in NSW, has broken down: https://thenewdaily.com.au/news/coro...tracing-covid/, which has been widely reported in the European press.

"New South Wales has lost control of contact tracing, putting Australia’s plan to reopen in jeopardy if the state cannot get COVID case numbers under control, infectious disease experts have warned.
"NSW Health announced Friday it would no longer report the number of linked and unlinked COVID-19 cases and their isolation status.
“'With current case volumes, this data is not a meaningful representation of case investigations,' the government body said."

If all of this is wrong I'll be glad to be corrected.

But in any case, does this look to you like it's under control?



From experience, once you get this, lockdowns and contact tracing won't stop it. 50 daily cases per million is a significant outbreak even by European standards. In our region during Summer 2020, our borders were closed to countries with over 25 per million.

But it's nothing to worry about. The whole rest of the world has been through this. You are extremely fortunate to only be getting it now, when you're already well on the way to vaccinating everyone. We had that in Finland in April, 2020, a year before availability of widespread vaccination. You're incredibly fortunate to be getting this a year and half later than the rest of the world. Even if you have p****d away many months of that blessed reprieve with the delayed start of the vax rollout, you're still WAY ahead of the game.

[GILow]

One alarming and very sad trend is emerging, and that is there have been a few deaths at home. Two more in Victoria just today.

This suggests to me that people are not seeking medical help, either because of cultural or language barriers, or perhaps because they have not been diagnosed. There was talk in NSW of people remaining untested as they did not want their enforced isolation to impact the ability of other family members to work.

Then there was the tragic case of the mother of the two removalists at the centre of one outbreak who died at home and you can’t help but assume she was too scared to seek help after the anger being directed at her sons.

For someone to die of this disease at home in Australia at this point in time is just plain wrong.

[Seaworthy Lass]

One big problem in Australia is that vaccinations are not being targeted to those at highest risk. Both NSW and Victoria have just acknowledged that “zero covid” is no longer achievable and vaccination rates are now the target, not the number of cases.

The first image below clearly shows how clearly deaths are associated with age. Cases are predominately in the “young”. Deaths are predominantly in the “old”:
https://www.health.gov.au/sites/defa...ust-2021_0.pdf

The second image shows that although a reasonable % of the 85+ year olds have received both doses, vaccines are being targeted at much younger age groups:
https://www.health.gov.au/sites/defa...ugust-2021.pdf

The group aged 12-16 year old had just opened up for vaccination. I think there is a risk this will lead to serious problems in Australia. Those next to no risk of severe illness are being focussed on in an effort to reduce spread. A futile aim in my view and possibly a very dangerous one.

Cases in NSW are now recognised as being out of control and Victoria is on the knife edge, not so much because of number of cases, but because so many of them were not isolating while infectious.

I don’t know how well Australian hospitals have been preparing for being hit with cases, but some posts in this thread seems to indicate it is not very well for some of them. This is critical, as so many severe cases can be easily managed simply with oxygen, reducing deaths dramatically. Australia has had 18 months to prepare for this. I think it is a pathetic if they have not done so.

SWL

[boatman61]

SWL... its a logical decision by the 'Boy's n Girls Club'.. the young are the one's who will be filling the Trough in the years to come.. the over 60's are just disposable deplorables.. unless they're 'Club Members'..

[Seaworthy Lass]

Originally Posted by boatman61

SWL... its a logical decision by the 'Boy's n Girls Club'.. the young are the one's who will be filling the Trough in the years to come.. the over 60's are just disposable deplorables.. unless they're 'Club Members'..

The UK targeted those at high risk superbly. Given the difficulties other nations have had, this has been phenomenally good.

Vaccines were systematically opened up to younger or less vulnerable age groups only after those more at risk had been offered vaccination. I don’t think any other nation have achieved this as well.

Despite all the criticisms levied at the NHS (primarily lack of resources) this has been an outstanding achievement.

SWL

[Dockhead]

Originally Posted by Seaworthy Lass

The UK targeted those at high risk superbly. Given the difficulties other nations have had, this has been phenomenally good.

Vaccines were systematically opened up to younger or less vulnerable age groups only after those more at risk had been offered vaccination. I don’t think any other nation have achieved this as well.

Despite all the criticisms levied at the NHS (primarily lack of resources) this has been an outstanding achievement.

SWL

I remember we were debating some months ago whether priority should be exclusively more vulnerable or whether some priority should also be given to those with most propensity to spread.

I think we still don't know for sure, but considering the dynamics with the Delta variant, I guess I was wrong about vaccinating those likely to spread. Because back then we thought we would have had herd immunity long ago -- by 60-70% vaccinated plus natural immunity, we thought. Looks now like it won't stop spreading before we're over 90% -- which sounds crazy, but that's what it looks like. So in hindsight, yeah, the Brits were spot on.

Originally Posted by Seaworthy Lass

. . . The group aged 12-16 year old had just opened up for vaccination. I think there is a risk this will lead to serious problems in Australia. Those next to no risk of severe illness are being focussed on in an effort to reduce spread. A futile aim in my view and possibly a very dangerous one.. . .

That's exactly what I was advocating a year ago. I guess I was wrong.





And as an aside -- Oz will need a significantly higher vaccination rate than other countries, for a comparable effect on spread of the virus, because of the low level of natural immunity in the population.

[Seaworthy Lass]

PS The UK formulated a plan and published this for anyone to view back in December 2020. They stuck to this and achieved the target to offer vaccinate over 50% of the population (all the groups at highest risk plus some) before the targeted date.

They clearly listed what vaccines would be used and their mode of action:

https://assets.publishing.service.go...20-revised.pdf

I have nothing but admiration for this.

SWL

[Seaworthy Lass]

Originally Posted by Dockhead

I remember we were debating some months ago whether priority should be exclusively more vulnerable or whether some priority should also be given to those with most propensity to spread.


I think we still don't know for sure, but considering the dynamics with the Delta variant, I guess I was wrong about vaccinating those likely to spread. Because back then we thought we would have had herd immunity long ago -- by 70% vaccinated plus natural immunity, we thought. Looks now like it won't stop spreading before we're over 90% -- which sounds crazy, but that's what it looks like.

I don’t think it will stop spreading, full stop. In the UK it is estimated that over 94% of the total population (not just adults) now have antibodies to SARS-CoV-2, indicating either prior infection or vaccination.

Cases are still skyrocketing despite this.

My view is that in years to come eventually everyone, vaccinated or not will have been infected. For those who survive, the current view is that this will confer strong immunity from severe disease. We have no long term data yet, but this seems to be the case so far.

SWL

[GILow]

SWL, much of what you have written makes good sense, but I think you are missing some of the nuances relevant to Australia.

The initial focus of the vaccine rollout was very much on the older and more vulnerable members of the population. That rollout started reasonably well, but at some point the first cases of the AZ clotting disorder appeared, here and overseas, at which point the whole rollout really lost momentum.

I’ll avoid the finger pointing all I can, people can argue who is to blame for the slow down until the cows come home. Some will say the government, some will say media, some social media... the list goes on.

But I think it is fair to say Australia was suddenly a victim of its own success in keeping the original strains at bay. People simply did not feel they were at risk from the virus.

Therefore, the well publicised but very minor risk of clotting was perceived as the bigger risk.

Hence very bad vaccine hesitancy.

I put myself in that group. When I was only eligible for AZ I decided I would sail back up to Melbourne for my shot rather than risk it in Tasmania where, rumour has it, there is no functional haematology unit. (As it was, they suddenly made my age bracket eligible for Pfizer and I was able to arrange my first does in three days.)

Now we have an outbreak and there is a scramble for the vaccine in Australia and we are playing catch-up. People finally feel at risk.

But some of the age timelines had been put in play, the doors had already been opened to younger cohorts getting the vaccine before everything went to crap (I think we’d got down to the 40 year olds being eligible by then) just in a desperate attempt to get SOMEONE vaccinated and stop the stuff rotting on the shelf.

Now it’s a kind of free-for-all frenzy with no real coherence. They are playing whack-a-mole with various age groups as they become over represented in the transmission stats in various areas. Too little, too late, of course, but it’s kind of understandable.

I think our hospitals are mostly prepared in the bigger states, but the smaller states are probably in trouble if it gets out of hand. But the smaller states have been struggling to some degree with under resourced health systems for decades, Covid really hasn’t changed that.

[Dockhead]

Originally Posted by Seaworthy Lass

. .. My view is that in years to come eventually everyone, vaccinated or not will have been infected. For those who survive, the current view is that this will confer strong immunity from severe disease. We have no long term data yet, but this seems to be the case so far.. .

That's exactly what Tegnell in Sweden was saying at the beginning of the pandemic.


If it's true, then vaccination is really the only thing to do about it.



Interestingly, I think I may have had a breakthrough case of COVID week before last. Despite being fully vaccinated, despite having already been very sick with it at the beginning of the pandemic. This time it was extremely mild, like a mild cold, and cleared up in a few days.