The Reality of Living in Australia and Covid

[JPA Cate]

Originally Posted by dannc

Exactly and this is a hugely important point.

The vaccines have never been a 100% preventer of getting the infection but some were pretty good with the first variant. For the current variants, preventing infection is worse.

COVID-19 vaccine efficacy summary | Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation

Pfizer.......Alpha preventing infection - 86% Delta preventing infection - 78%
Moderna..Alpha preventing infection - 89% Delta preventing infection - 80%
AstraZ.... Alpha preventing infection - 52% Delta preventing infection - 57%
JohnsonJ..Alpha preventing infection - 72% Delta preventing infection - 56%

These vaccines are still doing well in at minimizing disease.

Pfizer.......Alpha preventing disease - 92% Delta preventing disease - 90%
Moderna..Alpha preventing disease - 94% Delta preventing disease - 93%
AstraZ.... Alpha preventing disease - 85% Delta preventing disease - 83%
JohnsonJ..Alpha preventing disease - 86% Delta preventing disease - 85%

An study from Israel is showing that the vaccines are loosing the ability to prevent infection over time, which is why some health authorities are recommending a booster. The vaccines are still effective in minimizing hospitalizations and death.

What seems to be happening, due to the ease of infection in the latest variants and diminishing vaccine effectiveness, is that most of us will be exposed.

Even if the vaccine's effectiveness did not decline over time, a bunch of people will still get very sick. The slightly decreased effectiveness over time, in preventing hospitalization and death, means that 7-17% of the population could be affected. That is a bunch of of very sick and dead people, if almost everyone is eventually exposed....

Later,
Dan

Yes, and treatment is getting better, as well. No idea of the percentages, but I think we understand better how to treat the cases, and as that knowledge spreads within the medical community, care to the patients is improved.

Ann

[El Pinguino]

Originally Posted by Dockhead

At this early stage, of course not.


But you do have a fairly high rate of vaccine hesitancy in Oz: https://melbourneinstitute.unimelb.e...ination-report


This is the very thing which bit the U.S. in the posterior by stopping the vaccination campaign before it got far enough to do much good against the Delta variant. Would be a good time to start a vigorous information campaign to try to knock that down a bit.

So, looking at the first graph we can see that when - in April - the government told us we were all going to die of clots if we took AZ the percentage of 'don't knows' and 'nevers' jumped and stayed high through our blissfull covid free autum and early winter. Why would you risk this dangerous vaccine when we have no covid and secure quarantine borders?
Then in July along came delta and - to paraphrase Keating- ' the outbreak we had to have' and look how the percentages dropped. Never mind the 'unsures' that have halved but the 'nevers' dropped by a third - just like that.

I wouldn't be worrying about hesitancy or about the governments stopping the vax campaigning.

[Cadence]

Originally Posted by JPA Cate

This is certainly possible. However, the attitude can also be explained by feeling that death is waiting outside for them, and is to be welcomed as a relief from a life that they no longer want to continue....especially if they are deeply disappointed by what they see their kids have become. Quite capable of donating their remaining wealth to hospice care, or the RSPCA, or...... (charity of their choice)

Ann

Ann, the waiting outside the door seems very plausible.

[RaymondR]

Hi Dockhead,

Your posts which refer to the prevalence and herd immunity factors are what the sane people in Australia have been aware of since the start of this mess and now some of out eradication inclined leaders are being driven to accept. Unfortunately big political benefits have been gained by the "We'll keep you living forever if you vote for us" scum and we are now going to have to go through a face saving period which will drag the lock down torture phase out longer. Gee who would have known viruses evolve.

The correct strategy was to allow infection in the non vulnerable whilst doing all to pritect the vulnerable.

What the country will now go through is an epidemic of male suicides as those suffering the economic effects of the shut downs fail to cope with the consequences.

Hi Ann,

So now we can add the "pandemic solution" to the previously existing "securing the inheritance" solutions. I'm not disagreeing having been shocked by my own families resort to the "family court solution", the economic aspect of elder abuse is becoming a real problem in Australia.

[GILow]

Originally Posted by JPA Cate

...

This is certainly possible. However, the attitude can also be explained by feeling that death is waiting outside for them, and is to be welcomed as a relief from a life that they no longer want to continue....especially if they are deeply disappointed by what they see their kids have become. Quite capable of donating their remaining wealth to hospice care, or the RSPCA, or...... (charity of their choice)

Ann

Nobody being nursed by Danni would be in a hurry to move on to the next life, take it from me. [emoji16]

[JPA Cate]

Yes, it is a growing problem in the US, too. Not a popular subject of conversation. You could start a new thread about it in the Covid forum, if you think we need to talk about it.

[Cadence]

Originally Posted by JPA Cate

Yes, it is a growing problem in the US, too. Not a popular subject of conversation. You could start a new thread about it in the Covid forum, if you think we need to talk about it.

Ann, I spoke to a long time friend last week. He is spending $16,000US a month to keep his wife at home, Alzheimer's. I doubt she would want him going into the poor house if she had a say so. A slow death. I'm guessing covid would be preferred.

[Dockhead]

Originally Posted by RaymondR

. . . The correct strategy was to allow infection in the non vulnerable whilst doing all to pritect the vulnerable.. .. .

That's the Great Barrington Declaration strategy and your fellow Ozian and my friend Seaworthlass has always been an advocate of this.


You may be right, and may be proven right when this is all over. I'm a little more cautious, and think it was sensible to take reasonable measures (not necessarily lockdowns) to reduce infection in everyone. But I don't know for sure that I was right about that.

[Seaworthy Lass]

Originally Posted by Dockhead

……Sounds rather like what Giesecke and Tegnell in Sweden were saying at the very beginning of the pandemic -- everyone or nearly everyone will get it sooner or later. Now that it's fully loose in Oz, it's going to work its way inexorably through society as natural immunity in the population is almost non-existent. But of course Oz is extremely fortunate that this is happening so late, when it's still possible to vaccinate vulnerable people. So I still believe that Oz will never experience the death rates experienced in most of the rest of the world. But it's going to be a pretty long slog through this phase of the pandemic.

Yes, I agree.

Regarding it being a long slog, there is unfortunately a very long way to go if the UK is anything to go by, although the journey will be very different for 60% of Australia’s residents who live in NSW and Victoria where community transmission is currently escalating, compared to the rest of Australia where life has been fairly normal during this pandemic with close to zero community cases.

If the media is to be believed, some hospitals in Sydney are already not coping well even with Sydney’s relatively low hospitalisations. If the state opens up when only 70-80% of adults are fully vaccinated, given the very low rate of extra immunity post infection compared to the UK, I fear the hospital system will actually be severely stressed, although with the benefit of vaccination at least the deaths rates that have occurred elsewhere last year will not be seen.

Roughly 93% of the UK’s over 65 years olds are fully vaccinated (and it is estimated that 94% of the total population, not just % of adults have antibodies to SARS-CoV-2), yet the UK is currently experiencing a surge in cases and an average of 114 COVID deaths a day. I don’t see how NSW will have a better rate if they shortly open up.

Melbourne’s vaccination numbers are lagging about 3 weeks behind Sydney’s, so the effect of Sydney opening up will be seen and acted on. Despite all the promises, I suspect that Melbourne will therefore not ease restrictions significantly even when 80% of adults are fully vaccinated (expected to occur in November). I am just speculating, but I think the stay-at-home lockdown in Melbourne may continue well into the new year. Watching this, states such as Western Australia and Queensland will keep their borders closed for much longer. Hence the very long slog.

SWL

[El Pinguino]

There was another violent anti vaxx / anti lockdown demo planned for Melbourne on Saturday.
Seems nobody turned up - well maybe 3 or 4 people.

[Seaworthy Lass]

Originally Posted by El Pinguino

There was another violent anti vaxx / anti lockdown demo planned for Melbourne on Saturday.
Seems nobody turned up - well maybe 3 or 4 people.

Was it lack of publicity or the AU $5000+ fine for protesting putting people off?

Compare this to the protest 2 weeks ago in Melbourne:

[El Pinguino]

Originally Posted by Seaworthy Lass

Yes, I agree.

Regarding it being a long slog, there is unfortunately a very long way to go if the UK is anything to go by, although the journey will be very different for 60% of Australia’s residents who live in NSW and Victoria where community transmission is currently escalating, compared to the rest of Australia where life has been fairly normal during this pandemic with close to zero community cases.

If the media is to be believed, some hospitals in Sydney are already not coping well even with Sydney’s relatively low hospitalisations. If the state opens up when only 70-80% of adults are fully vaccinated, given the very low rate of extra immunity post infection compared to the UK, I fear the hospital system will actually be severely stressed, although with the benefit of vaccination at least the deaths rates that have occurred elsewhere last year will not be seen.

Roughly 93% of the UK’s over 65 years olds are fully vaccinated (and it is estimated that 94% of the total population, not just % of adults have antibodies to SARS-CoV-2), yet the UK is currently experiencing a surge in cases and an average of 114 COVID deaths a day. I don’t see how NSW will have a better rate if they shortly open up.

Melbourne’s vaccination numbers are lagging about 3 weeks behind Sydney’s, so the effect of Sydney opening up will be seen and acted on. Despite all the promises, I suspect that Melbourne will therefore not ease restrictions significantly even when 80% of adults are fully vaccinated (expected to occur in November). I am just speculating, but I think the stay-at-home lockdown in Melbourne may continue well into the new year. Watching this, states such as Western Australia and Queensland will keep their borders closed for much longer. Hence the very long slog.

SWL

Several points.

NSW still has not truly 'locked down' . While daily numbers are increasing day on day they are not doubling , even week on week.. Yesterday 1534, last saturday 1036.
In Victoria where we know how to do a proper lockdown - it comes with practice - new cases appear to have leveled off. In fact the Shepp outbreak has been well and truly knocked on the head.

NSW is ahead on vaccination as it was prioritised for vaccine supply by the federal government last month at the expense of other states such as Victoria.
The latest 4 million doses the PM has managed to beg will be distributed pro rata although some think vic should get a 'catch up' allowance.

[El Pinguino]

Originally Posted by Seaworthy Lass

Was it lack of publicity or the AU $5000+ fine for protesting putting people off?

Compare this to the protest 2 weeks ago in Melbourne:

It was raining.

[Seaworthy Lass]

Originally Posted by El Pinguino

It was raining.

I forgot that Work Safe Australia does not permit working in the rain .

[Wotname]

The border closures in Oz is very confusing (even for some CF posters) and there are many myths and legends germinating, some even thinking the closures are occurring along political lines. I dunno if this is due to sensationalist media coverage, media bias(?), poor memory, pollies stoking the party lines or just plain old sloppy thinking (i.e lack of critical thought).

If we can't even get the recent past correct, what chance do we have of predicting the near future. However speculation is always entertaining so I wonder when our various borders will return to 2019 arrangements. Not for a long time yet I venture.

For the record, the first border to tighten and then fully close was the national border - instigated by Scomo (PMfM etc). This is still in place with very minor modifications.

This was replicated by Tasmania shorty after (we'll use our moat etc). Following fast on these footsteps was WA (we've got a desert etc).

Without boring you all with the details, all states (except NSW AFAIK) have since opened and shut borders on and off; some for short periods and some longer. Of course the big Aussie border hasn't changed much at all.

Those with the harder border closures (ie Australia, WA, SA, TAS and QLD) have the lowest case numbers - maybe a coincidence but probably not.

Covid doesn't seem to have any political affliction though. Three of these governments are RW leaning and two are LW leaning.

Certainly the clamour in the media about WA and QLD doesn't hold much water against the facts - especially considering the hardest, toughest and so far the longest border closure has been put in place by Canberra.

If the borders ever open up, my guess is the national order closure will be the last to go but my guesses are often wrong!