The Reality of Living in Australia and Covid

[Seaworthy Lass]

Originally Posted by Dockhead

……Considering the vulnerable nature of the population, and especially if Seaworthy Lass is right and vulnerable haven't been prioritized in vaccination, then we might see this grow up higher than what we are having in the less vulnerable and better vaccinated Nordic populations. Based on my experience watching these curves for a year and a half, I would expect to see this go from 0.26 to 1 or 2 before this wave is over.

Deaths in Australia are still very low compared to last year and still mainly in the elderly or for those with co-morbidities. The vast majority of deaths have been in the 60+ age group. The 7 day average in NSW is 6, which is 0.73 per million.

Even with not all those at highest risk vaccinated, I think deaths will stay relatively low. It is just that they could be lower if Pfizer was available to the 60+ year olds rather than prioritising 12 year olds. 18% of those aged 60-69 have not received a first dose yet. The PM is sending out letters to this group this week, however, Pfizer is still not being offered to them:
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-09-...neca/100428564


The biggest problem is the country is super focussed on cases and I think this will slow down opening up of borders both between states and internationally. Several states have had next to no community spread or COVID-19 deaths so far (deaths in WA 9, QLD 7, SA 4, Tasmania none?) so I think these states will be very hesitant to accept the flood of cases that will inevitably occur and any deaths at all.

The figures presented by the Doherty modelling that suggest opening up is “safe” when 80% of adults are vaccinated do not reflect what is happening in the UK where it is estimated 94% of the total population has antibodies to SARS-CoV-2. I think both cases and deaths will be significantly higher, not just for the first 6 months but for much longer.

The graphs below show deaths in NSW and Victoria since the start of the pandemic and how these are broken up by age and sex.

SWL

[Wotname]

Originally Posted by Seaworthy Lass

One thing that is skewing the data presented in the above graphs for case numbers and deaths is that 89% of cases are in NSW (7 day average 1330) with a population of 8.2 million.

That brings cases in NSW to 162 per million, still not very high, but expected to rise even though there has been a slight levelling just recently.

Attached are graphs for cases in Australia since the start of the pandemic, plus in NSW and Victoria since June/July 2021.

SWL

Exactly and as I alluded to recently. However I believe it is even worse as AFAIK, most of the cases and deaths are occurring in eight or so LGAs in Sydney and certainly not spread across the population of the Greater Sydney area.

[Wotname]

Originally Posted by Seaworthy Lass

...............

The biggest problem is the country is super focussed on cases and I think this will slow down opening up of borders both between states and internationally. Several states have had next to no community spread or COVID-19 deaths so far (deaths in WA 9, QLD 7, SA 4, Tasmania none?) so I think these states will be very hesitant to accept the flood of cases that will inevitably occur and any deaths at all.
......................

SWL

Especially so as most (maybe all) of the few deaths mentioned above occurred in the early stages of 2020 and none in 2021.

[El Pinguino]

I see the federal government is about to start handing out vaccine passports aka electronic yellow books https://www.theage.com.au/politics/f....html#comments It will be interesting to see if they can get that right - their QR app was a fizzer.
Meanwhile Dan wants his 340,00 missing Phizer shots
https://www.theage.com.au/politics/f...07-p58pog.html

As Wotname says the vast majority of infection ( in Vic and NSW ) and death(in NSW ) is in quite restricted areas. These are very largely migrant large household not english as a first language neighbourhoods. Two of these LGAs in Victoria - one in the NW of Melbourne and the other in the SE - have the lowest rates of vaccination in the state.
https://www.theage.com.au/national/g...07-p58piu.html


Regarding deaths in NSW, In the last 4 weeks the number of cases have increased fourfold, meanwhile deaths on a rolling three day average have bounced around between 2 and 8 and currently sits on 4.
This chap puts it in context.
https://www.theage.com.au/national/w...30-p58n4b.html


And moving right along - the two states making the most noise about remaining covid free are the same two that lag well behind the rest of the nation in vaccinations at all levels. Far north WA - with one of the most vunerable populations in the country - has less than 17% fully vaxxed and only 28% with one shot. No wonder they want to keep the borders closed.

The lesser states can keep their borders closed for as long as they like - the only two borders I care about are Vic/NSW and our international one.

[JPA Cate]

It seems from SWL's bottom graph that men are more susceptible to death than women in the sample. What would account for that?

Ann

[El Pinguino]

Originally Posted by JPA Cate

It seems from SWL's bottom graph that men are more susceptible to death than women in the sample. What would account for that?

Ann

In the over 90s it seems to be the opposite - probably due to there being more old women in homes than men.

Only age group where it seems of consequence is 70/79 - maybe St Basils was the home of choice for discerning gentlemen last year - maybe not so much now.

[GILow]

Originally Posted by JPA Cate

It seems from SWL's bottom graph that men are more susceptible to death than women in the sample. What would account for that?

Ann

Australian men traditionally take less care of their general health than women.

[Dockhead]

Originally Posted by Wotname

Exactly and as I alluded to recently. However I believe it is even worse as AFAIK, most of the cases and deaths are occurring in eight or so LGAs in Sydney and certainly not spread across the population of the Greater Sydney area.

That's not really important. All countries had uneven distribution. In Sweden during the bad first wave in 2020, Stockholm and Gotheburg had all the infections whilst Scania had a lower infection rate than Zealand in Denmark across The Sound. So all these figures are some regions randomly blended together.


What you're having is an actual outbreak, so forget Covid Zero, but quite moderate so far. With such a vulnerable population, you will get to 1.5 to 2 daily deaths per million, I guess. But the wave will peak, and you will catch up with vaccination, and I guess it won't be so bad.

[Jim Cate]

Originally Posted by JPA Cate View Post
It seems from SWL's bottom graph that men are more susceptible to death than women in the sample. What would account for that?

Ann

Possibly because for the most part, the men have been married to women??

(runs and hides in forepeak)

Jim

[El Pinguino]

Originally Posted by Dockhead

That's not really important. All countries had uneven distribution. In Sweden during the bad first wave in 2020, Stockholm and Gotheburg had all the infections whilst Scania had a lower infection rate than Zealand in Denmark across The Sound. So all these figures are some regions randomly blended together.


What you're having is an actual outbreak, so forget Covid Zero, but quite moderate so far. With such a vulnerable population, you will get to 1.5 to 2 daily deaths per million, I guess. But the wave will peak, and you will catch up with vaccination, and I guess it won't be so bad.

A better comparison would be to look at an EU where the only outbreaks were in limited areas in Italy and Spain and the rest of Europe was covid free.

[Wotname]

Originally Posted by Dockhead

That's not really important. All countries had uneven distribution. In Sweden during the bad first wave in 2020, Stockholm and Gotheburg had all the infections whilst Scania had a lower infection rate than Zealand in Denmark across The Sound. So all these figures are some regions randomly blended together.


..............

Why not blend together all the data from Iceland, Denmark, Norway, Sweden and Finland? Similar total population and apart from language, similar regional differences. If it seems OK to seperate say Finish and Danish numbers, then it seems OK to seperate say NSW and QLD numbers in order to get a better understanding of what is occurring - anywhere.

[tanngrisnir]

Originally Posted by Seaworthy Lass

Even with not all those at highest risk vaccinated, I think deaths will stay relatively low. It is just that they could be lower if Pfizer was available to the 60+ year olds rather than prioritising 12 year olds. 18% of those aged 60-69 have not received a first dose yet.

Nowhere are 12 y.o. being prioritized, they are now eligible for the appropriate vaccine for their age group as recommended by ATAGI. They can make a booking like anyone else and their ability to get Pfizer is very dependent on supply.

With regard to over 60s, they have been eligible for Az since May. The hesitancy is amazing, some very stubborn boomers here who are used to getting their way. Kind of interesting that in the last few days the mainstream media are spending a lot of time calling out the "I have an existing health condition" people who through some reason or another think they should get Pfizer because they have managed high blood pressure, their aunt had a clot 20 years ago, etc. etc.

Also some of the quack remedies like ivemectin are being widely discussed and the fact checking being pushed as some odd politicians spam text the country with misinformation.

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-09-...id19/100440624

Originally Posted by Seaworthy Lass

The biggest problem is the country is super focussed on cases and I think this will slow down opening up of borders both between states and internationally.

Not any longer, now that Delta has got away in Victoria as well the focus of the Federal, NSW and Vic govts is vaccination coverage. Case numbers are a much smaller part of the conversation and these states are no longer reporting % in isolation and the unlinked cases are > 50% in Vic and who knows in NSW

Originally Posted by Seaworthy Lass

The figures presented by the Doherty modelling that suggest opening up is “safe” when 80% of adults are vaccinated do not reflect what is happening in the UK where it is estimated 94% of the total population has antibodies to SARS-CoV-2. I think both cases and deaths will be significantly higher, not just for the first 6 months but for much longer.

SWL

yep, I agree. I think this modeling is being used as a golden carrot to encourage vaxination. The modeling data is for low level infection rates which will not be the case. The only silver lining is that as seen elsewhere high vaxination rates decouple the infection to death relationship we saw last year.

Originally Posted by Seaworthy Lass

The graphs below show deaths in NSW and Victoria since the start of the pandemic and how these are broken up by age and sex.

I think your conclusions are skewed. You should only look at numbers since June, or 2021 even. Last year there was a big rip through the elderly in Vic, no vaccine and awful deaths. However, this year the outbreak in NSW is more evenly spread across the age groups. Listening to the daily pressers they give you the daily cases in hospital by age category. Haven't found the aggregated data yet but will post it when I find it.

[Alan Mighty]

Originally Posted by JPA Cate

It seems from SWL's bottom graph that men are more susceptible to death than women in the sample. What would account for that?

Sex disparity in Covid-19 mortality has been reported in several jurisdictions since 2020 - in Europe, Asia, and the Americas.

When controlling for socio-economic class, status/caste, ethnicity etc, the disparity shows as an excess of male deaths.

Guesses have included:

* social/gender lifestyle differences (in smoking cigarettes, drinking alcohol, handwashing, etc). Most of those have not stood up to scrutiny (e.g. the consumption of alcohol by Muslim males is quite low, but they also die in greater numbers than Muslim female).

* higher expression of angiotensin-converting enzyme-2 (ACE 2; the receptors used by coronavirus to enter cells) in males than in females.

* sex-based immunological differences driven by concentrations of sex hormone(s) and the activity of X chromosome(s) .

Apart from work dismissing the lifestyle differences, I've not seen much serious attention to the latter two.

You'll have noted that only very recently has any serious attention been directed to the many reports of menstrual irregularity associated with Covid-19 and the administration of vaccines (i.e. both the vaccines and the disease seem associated with greater menstrual irregularity). Whether that is a key to unlocking this particular puzzle remains to be seen.

Speculation: in 10 years time, people might be talking about a drop in human birth rate due to Covid.

[El Pinguino]

Originally Posted by tanngrisnir

I think your conclusions are skewed. You should only look at numbers since June, or 2021 even. Last year there was a big rip through the elderly in Vic, no vaccine and awful deaths. However, this year the outbreak in NSW is more evenly spread across the age groups. Listening to the daily pressers they give you the daily cases in hospital by age category. Haven't found the aggregated data yet but will post it when I find it.

here you go
https://www.covid19data.com.au/demographics
Not perfect as this is cases not hospitalisations and I can't see any date range but you can see that it is ripping through the younger section of the population.

[El Pinguino]

Two weeks old
https://au.news.yahoo.com/baby-with-...lfdriZDLf3EWxR

'Along with the baby in hospital, there are currently nine people in ICU with coronavirus. Of these people, one is aged in their 20s, one is in their 30s, five are in their 40s and two are in their 50s.

“This is a very young age profile for an ICU unit,” Mr Weimar said.

"In terms of the age profile of all of our cases of the 494 Victorians, 112 are children [are] under the age of 10.'