U.S. to close..

[Dockhead]

This seems kind of spasmodic, doesn't it?

https://www.nytimes.com/live/2020/12...ther-direction

"New York City elementary schools are reopening while other cities move in the other direction. New York City is reopening some of its public schools Monday in the teeth of a worsening coronavirus outbreak.
"The decision to do so reflects changing public health thinking around the importance of keeping schools operating, particularly for young students, and the real-world experience of over two months of in-person classes in the city’s school system, the nation’s largest."

"Changing public health thinking"? Zaebis. Don't they study what's going on in other countries?

We've known this "public health thinking" for more than half a year already in this part of the world. The Swedish health authority was the first to figure this out -- so while high schools and universities were closed in Sweden and stayed closed from early March until the end of the school yeare, primary schools in Sweden were never closed. The health authority figured that incalculable damage would be done to young children for doubtful epidemiological benefit. Just a few weeks later, the Danes realized that the Swedes were right, declared their closing a mistake, and reopened their primary schools. The rest of Northern Europe soon followed. Already since the start of the new school year, this has been the pattern all over Europe: close high schools if it gets bad, but for God's sake leave primary schools alone. Right now all German schools are open; in France and Italy primary schools are open and high schools are closed. In the UK I believe all schools are open despite the partial lockdown there. See: https://www.nytimes.com/2020/11/13/n...-closings.html


And in New York, in December 2020, almost halfway through the school year, they suddenly have the same thought and do an abrupt about face after having already ruined the school year

Closing primary schools is immensely destructive to society. Discussed here: https://www.nytimes.com/2020/10/29/w...lockdowns.html The liberal-leaning Brookings Institution estimates that 4 months of school closing costs the U.S. $2.5 trillion (!): https://www.brookings.edu/blog/educa...hool-closures/. But the cost is far from just economic -- the human cost of stunted development, the stress on families, the reduced productivity of parents stuck with children at home.

[Singularity]

South Korea, for example, makes Sweden look like Sweden is evolutionary still in the stone age (at least from a response to pandemic virus standpoint).

To put Sweden on a pedestal for being an exemplary Cro-Magnon above the other Cro-Magnons is entertaining, but not particularly useful insofar as we have other models of understanding with much, much better outcomes data (health, economic, social) that are evidenced-based and systemically spported. Assuming we're not trying to re-invent the wheel, perhaps it's always best to see who has accomplished what already; claiming superiority over a bag of manure is distracting in that regard, particularly were luck is involved.

But as Maslow and countless others have recorded through history, people can only see what they can see.

[goboatingnow]

I think it’s rather far fetched to suggest the primary school shutdown did “ incalculable damage. “ my wife is a teacher , firstly considerable home liaison and learning continued and secondly over the typical primary school years, all the lost ground will be made up

[goboatingnow]

I don’t think anyone including Sweden would agree that it’s a poster boy for handling COVID. There was considerable disagreement in Sweden itself amongst the experts and in fact Sweden was regarded as a somewhat pariah nation by other Europeans. In fact I listened to Tegnell when he spoke on Irish radio

The fact is Sweden sacrificed a lot to follow a dubious path tegnell admitted on the radio interview he would have done things differently

[Singularity]

Originally Posted by goboatingnow

I think it’s rather far fetched to suggest the primary school shutdown did “ incalculable damage. “ my wife is a teacher , firstly considerable home liaison and learning continued and secondly over the typical primary school years, all the lost ground will be made up

If you did want to calculate it, you'd need calculus. One of the two guys who independently invented calculus did so while his school was effectively shut down due to a plague and he had to think for himself, describe how he saw things from his own perspective. During the same period he developed 3 fundamental laws of physics, calculated planetary motion, independently developed the reflecting telescope, optics math, etc, to check his work.

If history is a teacher, cooping up people is a good way to get people to think differently about things, routinely with ~quantum-leap type advance in knowledge about the world around us.

Agreed that kids can pick up where they left off; also agreed that closing schools is problematic where schools are depended upon for providing meals and daycare instead of principally about learning.

[Stu Jackson]

Originally Posted by Dockhead

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"The decision to do so reflects changing public health thinking around the importance of keeping schools operating, particularly for young students, and the real-world experience of over two months of in-person classes in the city’s school system, the nation’s largest."

"Changing public health thinking"? Zaebis. Don't they study what's going on in other countries?

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And in New York, in December 2020, almost halfway through the school year, they suddenly have the same thought and do an abrupt about face after having already ruined the school year .............................
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Dockhead,


This one's easy:


Amerikan "EXCEPTIONALISM"


which simply is another way to express the stupidity of the "not invented here" syndrome.


It is a sometimes deadly repetition of not being able to or wanting to look beyond their own border.


It results in incredible waste and, in many cases, harm.

[Dockhead]

Originally Posted by Singularity

South Korea, for example, makes Sweden look like Sweden is evolutionary still in the stone age (at least from a response to pandemic virus standpoint).

A lot of rhetoric -- how about specifics? What specific approach makes South Korea exemplary and Sweden "stone age"?

Originally Posted by Singularity

To put Sweden on a pedestal for being an exemplary Cro-Magnon above the other Cro-Magnons is entertaining, but not particularly useful insofar as we have other models of understanding with much, much better outcomes data (health, economic, social) that are evidenced-based and systemically spported. Assuming we're not trying to re-invent the wheel, perhaps it's always best to see who has accomplished what already; claiming superiority over a bag of manure is distracting in that regard, particularly were luck is involved.

I disagree categorically. The Nordic (not just Swedish) approach may not be perfect (and none anywhere is, including South Korea), but is profoundly different from ours, and offers immensely valuable lessons for the rest of us. How for example did they get it right about primary schools from the beginning, when the rest of us are only just now figuring it out? Just to name one example. They got it right for a whole host of reasons.

First of all, they do planning to a very profound degree. They actually had a plan for this, a plan they actually followed. They didn't just make it up on the spot and in a panic, like we did. What a concept. This is one of the main reasons why they had a tight web of different measures all worked out and ready to go -- swiss cheese concept -- rather than relying on one panicked and dramatic gesture like a lockdown. In this, the Nordic response is just like the South Korean one, and profoundly different from ours. Extensive public education, rapid expansion of ICU beds (doubled in Sweden in under month), detailed planning for triage and transfers of patients, supply chains for PPE (Finland, with actual strategic reserves of PPE, did this better than other Nordic countries, but all did vastly better than we did) etc. etc. etc.

Second, their policymaking process is profoundly de-politicized, which allows it to be science-driven and evidence-based on an entirely different level from ours. This is true everywhere in Northern Europe, even if the institutional framework for this varies. Sweden has the most robust institutional framework for this with a health authority which operates with legal independence from the government (the "anti-ministerial rule" clause in their constitution), but in practice it works like this everywhere in the region.

Third, their non-polarized political culture allows politicians to make nuanced policy without fearing that political opponents will use everything for political gain. In their culture, they are supposed to put aside political differences and come together in a crisis. It doesn't work perfectly, but it's night and day compared to our system.

Fourth, profoundly effective communication of a totally coherent stream of information to the public. Daily press conferences from highly trusted public health chiefs in all the Nordic countries. Detailed, pre-planned instructions for voluntary measures. With the result that the entire population knew clearly what needed to be done, and could do it -- every little separate measure which is needed for the "swiss cheese effect".

And the South Korean response was different from this -- how? The main difference was contact tracing -- the South Koreans had unlimited access to massive amounts of personal data, which is impossible in Europe or America. On the basis of this they, like the Chinese, were able to track individuals without their consent and roll out a massive contact tracing effort much faster than was possible in Western countries. This was profoundly helpful, but was only one leg of the South Korean pandemic response, and successful pandemic responses are not built up out of a single measure. The rest of the South Korean response was quite similar to the Nordic response.

South Korea, by the way, like the Nordic countries, and like Japan and Taiwan, never had a lockdown -- a common element of nearly all of the most successful responses.

Originally Posted by Singularity

. . .But as Maslow and countless others have recorded through history, people can only see what they can see.

And yet again, the gratuitious insult, with an irrelevant name dropped as a substitute for actually disputing any logic or presenting any contrary facts. We've seen this before. YOU see the truth; whereas those who disagree with you are merely deluded. The reference to Maslow (and we don't know if you've even read him) is a substitute for actually demonstrating that something is wrong; as if, merely having heard of Maslow is some kind of claim of authority on the subject of who is deluded. That's a strong form of argument

[Capn Jimbo]

T

Originally Posted by Dockhead

I'm not sure what the source of your data is. My graphs are from Worldometer.

They show a seven day rolling average of daily deaths in Minnesota of 58. Minnesota has a population of 5.3 million, so that is 10.9 per million.
Sweden today has a seven day rolling average of daily deaths of 10. Sweden has a population of 10.3 million. So that is 0.97 per million. The difference to Minnesota is 11.3x.

You can see for yourself here: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries

So why the difference? I am genuinely curious

Hi Dockhead - I went to your link, and from that page, the following, data for today:



The Worldmeter data is quite similar to the earlier graphs I provided; in this case Minnesota has had about 63,000 cases per million of population, and 721 deaths/1M.


For Sweden:



So far in the long term Sweden has had about 28,000 cases/1M, and 698 deaths/1M (compared to 721 death/1M for Minnesota. As I said before, the gold standard for comparison is - of course - deaths/1M, which in this case are relatively equal. The overall, long term performance of Minnesota and Sweden are similar.

To answer your question, I believe what you are seeing (from the same site) is in part related to very recent Thanksgiving blip (short term). Of course there may be other factors. Short term blips and dips are certainly worth noting, but don't mean much unless they indicate a continuing trend.

However, if this blip is actually a trend (and with the massive failure of Thanksgiving in the US) our whole country is in big, big trouble. Sadly, I believe this is what is happening - with Christmas coming soon. Fasten your seat belts.

Hope that helps. Worldmeter is fine although I like other presentation sources more as these others provide logarithmic charts as well.

[GordMay]

Originally Posted by Dockhead

... How for example did they get it right about primary schools from the beginning, when the rest of us are only just now figuring it out? Just to name one example. They got it right for a whole host of reasons...

I suspect, they calculated the public health cost of keeping primary school students, in school, as VERY low.
They also calculated the economic benefit of keeping their parents working, as VERY high. (Out of school, these kids would have required unavailable daycare, requiring, at least one parent, to remain at home)
Simple arithmetic: very high benefit - very low cost = low cost measure (open schools)

Much as is appropriate mask wearing.

[Dockhead]

Originally Posted by goboatingnow

I don’t think anyone including Sweden would agree that it’s a poster boy for handling COVID. There was considerable disagreement in Sweden itself amongst the experts and in fact Sweden was regarded as a somewhat pariah nation by other Europeans. In fact I listened to Tegnell when he spoke on Irish radio

The fact is Sweden sacrificed a lot to follow a dubious path tegnell admitted on the radio interview he would have done things differently

There is controversy everywhere, including Sweden. But Tegnell enjoys about 70% popularity there, like the health chiefs in other Nordic countries.

But Sweden being a pariah is mythology invented by people trying to politicize the pandemic response and suppress any dialogue about which measures actually make sense.

Proof of this is the patently ridiculous idea that Sweden took some unique path. This is pure invented nonsense, and you can see that yourself if you just analyze WHAT the SPECIFIC pandemic measures were in Sweden, versus all the rest of the Nordic countries or for that matter Japan and Taiwan. Ignorant people, including journalists, say "Sweden -- no lockdown; the rest of the world -- lockdown". But that is false. No Nordic country had lockdown; Germany did not have a national lockdown, South Korea, Japan, Taiwan had no lockdown -- with the exeception of New Zealand and Australia, all of the most successful countries. This contradicts the cartoon-like and wrong meme "Sweden -- no lockdown -- unique path" which is endlessly repeated.

When someone starts talking about Sweden's "unique path" or "dubious path" you can be sure that this person doesn't actually know anything about what is being done there. There is no such thing -- there is a Nordic path, if you will, but not a unique Swedish one. Any slight differences in the measures there

The second proof of this is that the Nordic countries (including Sweden) started right out of the box with very close to the same measures which have now been adopted all over Europe. They were far ahead of the curve. What has been done in Germany, by far the most successul large country in Europe, is more or less precisely the Swedish mix of measures, since the summer. It's funny to talk about the "unique Swedish approach" when that approach has now been adopted everywhere.

Don't read journalists on this subject -- they almost all get it wrong, they almost all have some axe to grind or another. They endless repeat the same false things in an echo chamber. Read epidemiologists; read the health authorities of other countries. The Nordic model, not excluding the Swedish one, is widely admired. That doesn't mean it's perfect, doesn't mean there haven't been mistakes, and doesn't even mean that it will be ultimately successful -- the pandemic is not over. But up to now at least appears to be the most effective set of measures, by far, used in Europe.

[Capt. Lace]

Originally Posted by Capn Jimbo

With all due respect one of the side effects of isolation - especially of sailors - is that the same small crew takes over selected Covid threads drowning the readers with their long winded, repetitive, often political blather. The reality vs politics show goes on, no one convinces anyone, the temperature rises and...

The thread is closed by the overwhelmed moderators.

As a retired advanced practice nurse, public health, I've attempted to bring a bit of selective reality but to little avail. To be fair there a goodly number of thoughtful posters who "get" it and I applaud their refusal to allow the usual suspects to bulldose them with their trolling spew.

The sad consequence is that the lack of unity only insures the explosive growth of Covid. The next 3 to 4 months will shut them up, but the cost - especially in long term, "longhauler", lasting damage to 30-50% of infected people - that cost will be immense and lasting.

We are in for it (US).

There are no deaths now this is a controlled demolition and your fear porn doesnt work here

[Dockhead]

Originally Posted by GordMay

I suspect, they calculated the public health cost of keeping primary school students, in school, as VERY low.
They also calculated the economic benefit of keeping their parents working, as VERY high. (Out of school, these kids would have required unavailable daycare, requiring, at least one parent, to remain at home)
Simple arithmetic: very high benefit - very low cost = low cost measure (open schools)

Much as is appropriate mask wearing.

Indeed -- and that's the rational way to figure this stuff out. Cost vs benefit. Policymaking 101.



But not just economic benefit -- also there are substantial impacts on public health of closing primary schools. They always said, and say over and over again -- our mission is to protect public health as a whole. Public health is a whole lot more than just the pandemic.

[SalingSue]

Originally Posted by Dockhead

This seems kind of spasmodic, doesn't it?

https://www.nytimes.com/live/2020/12...ther-direction

"New York City elementary schools are reopening while other cities move in the other direction. New York City is reopening some of its public schools Monday in the teeth of a worsening coronavirus outbreak.
"The decision to do so reflects changing public health thinking around the importance of keeping schools operating, particularly for young students, and the real-world experience of over two months of in-person classes in the city’s school system, the nation’s largest."

"Changing public health thinking"? Zaebis. Don't they study what's going on in other countries?

We've known this "public health thinking" for more than half a year already in this part of the world. The Swedish health authority was the first to figure this out -- so while high schools and universities were closed in Sweden and stayed closed from early March until the end of the school yeare, primary schools in Sweden were never closed. The health authority figured that incalculable damage would be done to young children for doubtful epidemiological benefit. Just a few weeks later, the Danes realized that the Swedes were right, declared their closing a mistake, and reopened their primary schools. The rest of Northern Europe soon followed. Already since the start of the new school year, this has been the pattern all over Europe: close high schools if it gets bad, but for God's sake leave primary schools alone. Right now all German schools are open; in France and Italy primary schools are open and high schools are closed. In the UK I believe all schools are open despite the partial lockdown there. See: https://www.nytimes.com/2020/11/13/n...-closings.html


And in New York, in December 2020, almost halfway through the school year, they suddenly have the same thought and do an abrupt about face after having already ruined the school year

Closing primary schools is immensely destructive to society. Discussed here: https://www.nytimes.com/2020/10/29/w...lockdowns.html The liberal-leaning Brookings Institution estimates that 4 months of school closing costs the U.S. $2.5 trillion (!): https://www.brookings.edu/blog/educa...hool-closures/. But the cost is far from just economic -- the human cost of stunted development, the stress on families, the reduced productivity of parents stuck with children at home.

Based on the NY school system, i say shut it down, that thing is a tax extorted fueled dumpster fire

[Dockhead]

Originally Posted by Capn Jimbo

. . . So far in the long term Sweden has had about 28,000 cases/1M, and 698 deaths/1M (compared to 721 death/1M for Minnesota. As I said before, the gold standard for comparison is - of course - deaths/1M, which in this case are relatively equal. The overall, long term performance of Minnesota and Sweden are similar.

Well, you had disputed my data concerning the situation this week. Now you've pivoted to the cumulative situation. I guess that's good; let's move on to that.

Sweden had a big first wave of death in April, driven by a big screwup with their care homes. The second wave has been much smaller; so far less than 1000 people have died and the death rate peaked at under 5 per million and has been going down again for a couple of weeks.

Minnesota had no big first wave, but is having a huge second wave, with death rate, at almost 12 per million, higher than Sweden ever experienced, and still rising.

So I don't think the long term "performance" is similar, either. And I am still curious why the difference.

However, I am not comfortable with the word "performance". It implies that these numbers are a direct result of the interventions, such that we can measure the "performance" of interventions. I guess the interventions are just one and maybe not even the biggest factor in the outcomes, so "outcome" is not equal to "performance". I think we have to stay humble here about what we think we know, and what we can actually do.

I'm still interested in your opinion about specific measures. What did Minnesota do or not do, specifically, which in your view has influenced this situation? Sweden?

Originally Posted by Capn Jimbo

To answer your question, I believe what you are seeing (from the same site) is in part related to very recent Thanksgiving blip (short term). Of course there may be other factors. Short term blips and dips are certainly worth noting, but don't mean much unless they indicate a continuing trend.

However, if this blip is actually a trend (and with the massive failure of Thanksgiving in the US) our whole country is in big, big trouble. Sadly, I believe this is what is happening - with Christmas coming soon. Fasten your seat belts.. . .

I really hope and pray that it's a blip and not the start of a massive meltdown. In Minnesota, the daily new cases number might be turning down. Death rate usually follows daily new case rate with a lag of a few weeks.

[UFO]

Originally Posted by Singularity

You mean like the annual flu shot?

So how much molecular biology have you studied? Or are you just winging it? Can you imagine how people speaking nonsense about "it oughta take 10 years or it's suspect" is tantamount to disinformation? Undermining the efforts of people who've studied molecular biology to help people?

Or do we react to them like they are witches...not to be trusted? Because you have some notion that came from somewhere?

You really like to warp the truth don't you.


The Flu shot has been around for 80 odd years and has been tweaked and adapted to new strains as they come along, so saying its done in 10 months is very misleading of you, but you already know that.


Here is different link to the last one I put up for vaccine timelines.


https://www.ifpma.org/wp-content/upl...2019_FINAL.pdf



Oh and repeated condescension towards people who do not agree with "Your" Truth just shows how truly closed minded you are.