U.S. to close..

[Mike OReilly]

The current set of vaccines have been developed at brake-neck speed, and people are right to be scientifically skeptical.

A big part of the explanation has to do with the unprecedented resources thrown at the problem*. But another major factor is the fact that SARS-CoV-2 is a close relative to a number of other similar coronaviruses that have already been well studied and researched. SARS, MERS and even the common cold are all closely related coronaviruses, and all have been well studied, sequenced, and understood long before SARS-CoV-2 came along.

So development of these new vaccines was already well advanced in the normal process. In other words, scientists were not starting at step #1 when it came to Covid-19.

Skepticism is always warranted. These vaccines have been developed at an been an unprecedented speed. But if you read the trial data and reports, there is (currently) no reason to believe they are not safe and effective.

*Yes, the Trump administration can take some credit for it. Given his stance on the virus, it seems this is more despite Trump than because of him, but there is no doubt the added resources certainly have helped.

[Capn Jimbo]

Look friends… as a retired nurse, public health (and hospice) I am very well aware of patients both having and giving up hope. We are in a crisis of a magnitude that is every bit as threatening as WWII. Under such circumstances it is not unexpected for many to be angry, in denial, and the like. Add to that our political change of leadership and conspiracy theories…

In this light giving credit to the outgoing president for the so-called “warp speed” program is heavily influenced – and not for the best. Let’s look at what we are giving credit for:

1. There is reasonable evidence that the US knew of the virus and its likely impact last December, and surely in January, when the virus’s sequence was published. The former administration had already published a detailed response guide, which included the need to immediately address the need for a vaccine. These were ignored. Give him credit.

2. OWS was not even funded until almost April as a public/private partnership – with the public paying ALL the costs, and a handful of monopolistic big pharma companies making ALL the profits. This after receiving a huge, multi-trillion dollar tax cut. Give him credit.

3. But even then, it was not until May 15th that our president even announced the program. Need I say that when dealing with an exponentially spreading deadly virus, even a few days makes a notable difference. Give him credit.

4. OWS uses an organization called BARDA to both add funds and distribute the money. When the Director of BARDA – yes the director – publicly states he was uncomfortable with “efforts to fund potentially dangerous drugs promoted by those with political connections” he was quickly removed. Give him credit.

5. As of October our governments favorite companies had received about $10B, while their monoclonal antibody competitors (much smaller) received less less than $1B. Oddly enough, when our president became infected he was treated with Regeneron’s monoclonal, who received only $450 million dollars. Give him credit.

6. Pfizer was not part of OWS, but an order was placed for 100 million doses (2 shots required) thus potentially helping just 50 million Americans. When it looked like Pfizer had a real winner they offered to sell additional doses, but our administration passed. Pfizer then sold these additional doses to the EU and we will not get them. Give him credit.

7. Meanwhile our administration failed miserably to contain the virus, to provide sufficient PPE, to organize and operate real TTQ (test, trace, quarantine), or any real national leadership. The hot potato was thrown to the states. Masks and other valuable tools were not utilized and there was failure of national leadership. As a result the US (with 4% of the world’s population) has over 25% of the cases and – yup – it is now about to explode to the worst health disaster in our history. This dramatically inhibits the hoped for success of vaccination (more on this later). Give him credit.


I’ll finish with this qualified observation:

“At the current level of infection in the U.S. (about 200,000 confirmed new infections per day), a vaccine that is 95 percent effective — distributed at the expected pace — would still leave a terrible toll in the six months after it was introduced. Almost 10 million or so Americans would contract the virus, and more than 160,000 would die.”

“This is far worse than the toll in an alternate universe in which the vaccine was only 50 percent effective but the U.S. had reduced the infection rate to its level in early September (about 35,000 new daily cases). In that scenario the death toll in the next six months would be kept to about 60,000.”

Read that again. By the combination of vaccine delay and explosive growth, at least another 100,000 (or likely more) will die based on Operation Walking Speed, which was political from the get go. With that…

Give him credit. Please.

[valhalla360]

Originally Posted by Singularity

You mean like the annual flu shot?

The annual flu shot isn't developed from scratch annually.

[darylat8750]

Originally Posted by Dockhead

Indeed -- and that's the rational way to figure this stuff out. Cost vs benefit. Policymaking 101.



But not just economic benefit -- also there are substantial impacts on public health of closing primary schools. They always said, and say over and over again -- our mission is to protect public health as a whole. Public health is a whole lot more than just the pandemic.

Agree wholeheartedly !

[Singularity]

Originally Posted by Mike OReilly

The current set of vaccines have been developed at brake-neck speed, and people are right to be scientifically skeptical.

A big part of the explanation has to do with the unprecedented resources thrown at the problem*. But another major factor is the fact that SARS-CoV-2 is a close relative to a number of other similar coronaviruses that have already been well studied and researched. SARS, MERS and even the common cold are all closely related coronaviruses, and all have been well studied, sequenced, and understood long before SARS-CoV-2 came along.

So development of these new vaccines was already well advanced in the normal process. In other words, scientists were not starting at step #1 when it came to Covid-19.

Skepticism is always warranted. These vaccines have been developed at an been an unprecedented speed. But if you read the trial data and reports, there is (currently) no reason to believe they are not safe and effective.

This.

The document that people are citing is a Pharma document that appears designed to (pre-Covid) build trust with people who are skeptical of vaccines, where if they see "oh, they put a lot of work into vaccines, then I'll more trust taking the jab." But (law of unintended consequences) in a Covid world, people now read the document and think "1 year is too quick! Something is wrong! It should take 10 years!"

There's simply no relationship of lunar cycles, Earth about the sun, and vaccine production timelines. Prior to vaccine trial time-frame (which is associated with lunar cycles) it's a man-hours game to tell the vaccine printer which molecular target to go after (at least for something like Covid or influenza). Once trialed, the vaccine is either safe or it isn't. It's either effective or it's not. The concerns about long-term consequences are superficially logical, but there's no underlying theory to so much as postulate (using known science) how they could cause long-term problems.

If a vaccine takes 10 years to develop this is related to disease-efficacy issues, not per se/much at all anything to do with safety.

On modern review timeframes:

FDA Career Staff Are Delaying the Vaccine As Thousands of Americans Die
We’ve gone from ‘Operation Warp Speed’ to develop a vaccine to ‘Operation Turtle Speed’ to review It.
"For the vaccine trial, the data set is small and straightforward. If my research team, normally tasked with analyzing data on millions of patients, was asked to review the smaller Pfizer vaccine study of 43,000 patients, it would take about one hour."

https://thedispatch.com/p/fda-career...e-delaying-the

[Jason Flare]

Has anyone here become conscious of wind direction when talking to people outdoors?

I was very conscious of wind direction early on when people started talking about the virus being airborne and contagious.

Anyone else happy to find themselves upwind?

[goboatingnow]

I don’t care what definition you ascribe to lockdowns , different countries had different ideas

“Speaking to reporters in Stockholm on Thursday, Tegnell said, “We have a different situation as we’re not moving from a complete lockdown to opening up. We remain at the same level of measures, and that may also be a factor behind a different development here than in many other countries.”

Tegnell also suggested that more Swedes have developed immunity to the virus. That “makes it harder to start transmission than in some other countries, where fewer people have been ill.”

But Sweden still stands out in the region as the country to have suffered the highest number of Covid fatalities, by far. Per 100,000, Sweden’s Covid death rate is now about 57, compared to 11 in Denmark and 5 in Norway.”
Bloomberg news

[Pelagic]

Originally Posted by Singularity

If you did want to calculate it, you'd need calculus. One of the two guys who independently invented calculus did so while his school was effectively shut down due to a plague and he had to think for himself, describe how he saw things from his own perspective. During the same period he developed 3 fundamental laws of physics, calculated planetary motion, independently developed the reflecting telescope, optics math, etc, to check his work.

If history is a teacher, cooping up people is a good way to get people to think differently about things, routinely with ~quantum-leap type advance in knowledge about the world around us.

Agreed that kids can pick up where they left off; also agreed that closing schools is problematic where schools are depended upon for providing meals and daycare instead of principally about learning.

Interesting take on Covid enhancing Euclidean development

[Mike OReilly]

As I suggested would probably start to happen:

Ontario plans for proof-of-vaccination cards as 1,676 new COVID-19 cases reported

As the provinces anxiously await doses from the country's first vaccine shipment, Ontario is planning to issue some kind of proof-of-vaccination card to those who receive their shots.

"That will be very important for people to have, for travel purposes and perhaps work purposes or going to theatres or cinemas or any other places where people will be in close physical contact when we get through the worst of the pandemic," said Health Minister Christine Elliott on Tuesday.

"So yes, that will be essential for people to have that," she added.

Elliott also said that vaccination will be voluntary, but that people who refuse to be vaccinated could be barred from some activities

[goboatingnow]

Time to load the rifle, the creation of the underclass is upon us.

[Dockhead]

Originally Posted by goboatingnow

I don’t care what definition you ascribe to lockdowns , different countries had different ideas

“Speaking to reporters in Stockholm on Thursday, Tegnell said, “We have a different situation as we’re not moving from a complete lockdown to opening up. We remain at the same level of measures, and that may also be a factor behind a different development here than in many other countries.”

Tegnell also suggested that more Swedes have developed immunity to the virus. That “makes it harder to start transmission than in some other countries, where fewer people have been ill.”

But Sweden still stands out in the region as the country to have suffered the highest number of Covid fatalities, by far. Per 100,000, Sweden’s Covid death rate is now about 57, compared to 11 in Denmark and 5 in Norway.”
Bloomberg news

Sure, and how do all these different thoughts fit together, in your view?

Paragraph 1 -- Tegnell is saying that they, like all the Nordic countries, did not implement one dramatic unsustainable measure which was then lifted, leaving nothing. That they implemented a set of sustainable, previously planned measures, which have been left in place continuously. This is correct, and wise, and is not uniquely Swedish. That is the main idea behind all of the Nordic measures.

Paragraph 2 -- Very many epidemiologists have been concerned that slowing down the progress of the epidemic too much -- more than what is needed to protect health care systems from being overwhelmed -- will simply prolong it, without resulting in fewer infections and deaths at the end of the day. Might be true, but Nordic measures have been effective enough at slowing down the epidemic that even today not enough of the populations of any of these countries has enough natural immunity to prevent another wave.

Paragraph 3 -- True, that. But why is it? And what is the significance? Compare the measures in Sweden since May to the measures in Finland and tell me where the Finns got it right and the Swedes got it wrong. There are more factors at play than just our measures.

You said "different countries had different ideas" -- which? Be specific. And the answer to this question is the answer to everything here.

[Stu Jackson]

Originally Posted by Capn Jimbo

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Read that again. By the combination of vaccine delay and explosive growth, at least another 100,000 (or likely more) will die based on Operation Walking Speed, which was political from the get go. With that…

Give him credit. Please.

Thanks you for a superb summary of greed and deceit.

[SalingSue]

Originally Posted by Capn Jimbo

Look friends… as a retired nurse, public health (and hospice) I am very well aware of patients both having and giving up hope. We are in a crisis of a magnitude that is every bit as threatening as WWII. Under such circumstances it is not unexpected for many to be angry, in denial, and the like. Add to that our political change of leadership and conspiracy theories…

In this light giving credit to the outgoing president for the so-called “warp speed” program is heavily influenced – and not for the best. Let’s look at what we are giving credit for:

1. There is reasonable evidence that the US knew of the virus and its likely impact last December, and surely in January, when the virus’s sequence was published. The former administration had already published a detailed response guide, which included the need to immediately address the need for a vaccine. These were ignored. Give him credit.

2. OWS was not even funded until almost April as a public/private partnership – with the public paying ALL the costs, and a handful of monopolistic big pharma companies making ALL the profits. This after receiving a huge, multi-trillion dollar tax cut. Give him credit.

3. But even then, it was not until May 15th that our president even announced the program. Need I say that when dealing with an exponentially spreading deadly virus, even a few days makes a notable difference. Give him credit.

4. OWS uses an organization called BARDA to both add funds and distribute the money. When the Director of BARDA – yes the director – publicly states he was uncomfortable with “efforts to fund potentially dangerous drugs promoted by those with political connections” he was quickly removed. Give him credit.

5. As of October our governments favorite companies had received about $10B, while their monoclonal antibody competitors (much smaller) received less less than $1B. Oddly enough, when our president became infected he was treated with Regeneron’s monoclonal, who received only $450 million dollars. Give him credit.

6. Pfizer was not part of OWS, but an order was placed for 100 million doses (2 shots required) thus potentially helping just 50 million Americans. When it looked like Pfizer had a real winner they offered to sell additional doses, but our administration passed. Pfizer then sold these additional doses to the EU and we will not get them. Give him credit.

7. Meanwhile our administration failed miserably to contain the virus, to provide sufficient PPE, to organize and operate real TTQ (test, trace, quarantine), or any real national leadership. The hot potato was thrown to the states. Masks and other valuable tools were not utilized and there was failure of national leadership. As a result the US (with 4% of the world’s population) has over 25% of the cases and – yup – it is now about to explode to the worst health disaster in our history. This dramatically inhibits the hoped for success of vaccination (more on this later). Give him credit.


I’ll finish with this qualified observation:

Read that again. By the combination of vaccine delay and explosive growth, at least another 100,000 (or likely more) will die based on Operation Walking Speed, which was political from the get go. With that…

Give him credit. Please.

More than a few errors in those statements.

What the country needs is not to turn the money printers up past 11, we need to wake up and open up.

If you feel you need a ineffective rushed vaccine against a virus with over a 99% survival rate, go buy yourself the shot, or have your overpaid insurance buy it for you.

This person who traveled and worked in critical health will pass on the vaccine, just like I passed in participating in the illegal lock downs, hoarding, and the “pandemic” fashion accessories.

How I am fighting the “pandemic” is a increased effort to not buy Chinese products, how I voted at the polls, not giving any of the super pro lockdown states my business, and making it a point to point and laugh at things like people riding a motorcycle with a mask on...but no helmet. It’s much more a economic and mental problem, than a biological one.

[Lake-Effect]

Originally Posted by SalingSue

This person who traveled and worked in critical health will pass on the vaccine, just like I passed in participating in the illegal lock downs, hoarding, and the “pandemic” fashion accessories.

Yeah right

When the vaccine's been around long enough to allay your lingering fears about it, and proof of vaccination is required for most travel and border-crossing (including cruising), you will suddenly go quiet on the subject and get your jab.

I bet the same goes for most of the fair-weather libertarians on CF. "Hmmm... travel has opened up...the Caribbean, or my basement again? Jab me!"

[El Pinguino]

Have I missed something re the BioNTec vaccine?

I see the Trump person is banging on about its development and production by the Pfizer/BioNTec team was all down to him.... for starters I was of the belief that Pfizer was not a part of the warpedspeed business.

I am also of the belief that it was devoloped by a couple of Turkish people in Germany....while he is saying it is an all american business.

He is also saying that he will invoke sundry laws to ensure that the US gets all they want before anyone else gets any....

Meanwhile the UK is getting its vaccine from a plant in Belgium and Pfizer and BioNTech have said ...
'(they have) signed contracts to supply 300 million doses of a SARS-CoV-2 vaccine for the European Union, 40 million doses for the United Kingdom, 100 million doses for the United States and 120 million doses for Japan, if proven effective, safe, and licensed.'

Is he telling porkies again??