U.S. to close..

[Lake-Effect]

Originally Posted by dwedeking2

My theory is though, that we've pulled deaths forward as those with comorbidities would have died in the next 6 - 18 months anyhow. 2021 and 2022, in my opinion, will show a decline in deaths vs 2019.

Ending a life 6 to 18 months earlier because we can't or won't take the steps necessary to block a pandemic is kind of terrible, no? Its failure when we had the tools to do better. And there's other victims besides the elderly and frail, not to mention grinding medical workers to a pulp.

I somewhat agree that the deaths in 2021-2 could be lower than 2019 if there's sufficient vaccinations, but it won't balance out.

I'm curious why those who demand society change to fight this disease haven't called for calorie limitations and forced weight reduction. This seems it would solve a large percentage of the covid19 deaths and also other obesity related deaths as well. Once you accept the fact that society owns your body, why limit your control to marginal safety measure like masks and social distancing and do something effect like getting all those fat people under control.

There's a difference between what one does to themselves and what one does that harms others. It's not a crime to shoot oneself, for example.

Right now we're all just seeing the trees, not the forest. But step back a couple of paces: wouldn't it have been magnificent for the world if we could have shut this pandemic down early through taking action right away? A massive step forward. Next time, maybe.

[Dockhead]

Originally Posted by Lake-Effect

Ending a life 6 to 18 months earlier because we can't or won't take the steps necessary to block a pandemic is kind of terrible, no? Its failure when we had the tools to do better. And there's other victims

Yes, these deaths are "kind of terrible" -- every day of life is precious. But you are assuming a lot to say that all these deaths were caused by our "can't or won't take steps necessary to block a pandemic."

No doubt some of these deaths could have been prevented by earlier (particularly) earlier and more decisive action. How many we can't know, but I hope we will do much better next time.

Originally Posted by Lake-Effect

. . .besides the elderly and frail, not to mention grinding medical workers to a pulp.


I somewhat agree that the deaths in 2021-2 could be lower than 2019 if there's sufficient vaccinations, but it won't balance out.

When this is all over, we will be able to see what this looks like by looking at overall mortality and excess deaths for the time of the pandemic and the half year or year before and the half year or year after. The total excess mortality over the whole period will be much less than the official pandemic death toll because of the large proportion of deaths which are of people who would have died soon after anyway. This will put the whole event into better perspective. It will still be a terrible picture, but not quite the equivalent of WWII which many people have in mind.

Originally Posted by Lake-Effect

. . . Right now we're all just seeing the trees, not the forest. But step back a couple of paces: wouldn't it have been magnificent for the world if we could have shut this pandemic down early through taking action right away? A massive step forward. Next time, maybe.

I agree.

One thing all the epidemiologists I've read agree about, is that the SPEED of taking measures is all-important, the single most important factor, much more important than WHICH specific measures are used.

I sure hope that we will learn our lesson after this, and prepare really thorough and really intelligent pandemic plans which can be implemented much more decisively than these ones were. With pandemic measures worked out in detail and in advance, and not just improvised under stress. After analyzing critically all the measures used around the world, and sober analysis of which ones did a lot of good, and which ones did more harm than good.

I hope these plans will pay more attention to public education and voluntary measures. I don't think these pandemics can be stopped by top-down measures lacking widespread consensus and cooperation.

Another lesson we might have learned is how speedy development, manufacture, and distribution of vaccines can save the world. Maybe we will make preparations for that, too. Not that what the world has accomplished in this area so far is shabby -- on the contrary; I find it absolutely amazing. But I think we've also been lucky this time -- it seems like this particular virus is particularly easy to develop a vaccine against. If we invest into preparation for this -- plans for mobilizing research and development resources, plans for international cooperation, not to mention invest into the basic science in the microbiology needed to make different and better and faster vaccines -- I'm sure we can do even much better next time.

We also need testing and contact tracing systems which can be put into place instantly, and not with all the fumbling around we've done this time. A major obstacle in the free world is lack of access to personal data. When this pandemic is over, we will have time to try to figure out how to get the necessary data in a way which does not violate what we consider to be fundamental rights of privacy.

So, I'm somewhat optimistic. This one is bad enough, but not an extinction event at all, not nearly. The next one may be much worse. We should be much, much better prepared.

[Lake-Effect]

Originally Posted by Dockhead

Yes, these deaths are "kind of terrible" -- every day of life is precious. But you are assuming a lot to say that all these deaths were caused by our "can't or won't take steps necessary to block a pandemic."

Well, the more certain we are that someone wouldn't have died soon if they hadn't caught COVID-19, the more we can assert that that death could very likely have been prevented by better control of the pandemic spread, and/or protection of the most vulnerable. There's no point evading that.

When this is all over, we will be able to see what this looks like by looking at overall mortality and excess deaths for the time of the pandemic and the half year or year before and the half year or year after. The total excess mortality over the whole period will be much less than the official pandemic death toll because of the large proportion of deaths which are of people who would have died soon after anyway. This will put the whole event into better perspective. It will still be a terrible picture, but not quite the equivalent of WWII which many people have in mind.

That remains to be seen.

Consider the following: X is the baseline 2019 annual deaths for country A. Now, since country A instituted measures to try to suppress COVID-19, and those same measures also suppress other common killer diseases like flu and pneumonia, reduced traffic and air pollution deaths, etc... the non-COVID baseline for 2020 is going to be less than X. Lets call it Y.

So... when we observe that country A in 2020 has had an "excess" mortality of say Z compared to 2019, the ACTUAL amount of "excess" deaths in 2020 that were directly or indirectly* caused by COVID-19 is greater than Z. It's actually (Z + (X-Y)).

The actual excess mortality figure for country A that is attributable to COVID-19 is going to go UP, not down.

Hope that's clear. Heh.

*indirecty = non-COVID treatable illness/disease that is fatal because of hospital restriction or overload, other deaths caused by COVID restrictions ie suicides

One thing all the epidemiologists I've read agree about, is that the SPEED of taking measures is all-important, the single most important factor, much more important than WHICH specific measures are used.

Agreed. Serious planning and preparation, and the resolution to act quickly and decisively when required. And some recognition that international preparation and coordination will always be essential.

Another lesson we might have learned is how speedy development, manufacture, and distribution of vaccines can save the world. Maybe we will make preparations for that, too. Not that what the world has accomplished in this area so far is shabby -- on the contrary; I find it absolutely amazing. But I think we've also been lucky this time -- it seems like this particular virus is particularly easy to develop a vaccine against. If we invest into preparation for this -- plans for mobilizing research and development resources, plans for international cooperation, not to mention invest into the basic science in the microbiology needed to make different and better and faster vaccines -- I'm sure we can do even much better next time.

We also need testing and contact tracing systems which can be put into place instantly, and not with all the fumbling around we've done this time. A major obstacle in the free world is lack of access to personal data. When this pandemic is over, we will have time to try to figure out how to get the necessary data in a way which does not violate what we consider to be fundamental rights of privacy.

So, I'm somewhat optimistic. This one is bad enough, but not an extinction event at all, not nearly. The next one may be much worse. We should be much, much better prepared.

Agreed.

Healthcare in general will take a leap forward when there's a near universal way to share and exchange medical records while maintaining privacy. It's a tough problem and most governments seem a decade or more behind in wrestling with the issue of personal data. The EU seems ahead on this.

[Singularity]

Originally Posted by UFO

I researched this years ago, so links are not so readily available but here's a couple, but I can no longer find the up to 18 stats only 2 to 8 year olds......

FWIW I checked a few of those studies. What I'd suggest noting when looking at studies of relationships of vaccines to stuff like GI problems, asthma, allergies, eczema.......first compare the # of visits to the doc in the different cohorts.

This study shows head injury visits roughly equal, but lots more vaccinated kids having allergies/asthma/GI issues/developmental delay. Otherwise small data set confined to 3 clinics.

So there are a ton of books out there pointing out that doctors routinely label people as sick (particularly in the US) for various reasons...but the bottom line is that if kids don't get dragged into the doctor, they tend to not die so much, such that a lot of parents just don't take their kids to the doctor getting labeled as having XYZ conditions. In the US doctor payment is linked to diagnosing...which is very problematic that doctors get paid more to diagnose more, but it's practically normative that folks want a diagnosis other than "variant of the human condition...deal with it, don't come back."

Not saying this is good/bad/right/wrong, that's just how it is, such that the parents of unvaccinated kids are not the type who drags their kid in expecting A) a diagnosis, B) pills. Quite the opposite, and it shows in practically every one of these studies. Pediatrics is somewhat like veterinary medicine in that you're often treating the crazy parent and not the child.

[Uncle Bob]

Kind of funny isn't it, Australian Govt sought an international investigation of the origins of the pandemic early in the piece, Chinese Govt became very upset and promptly set about actively trying to destroy the Australian economy in some sort of retaliation, and now we have indications that the virus may have appeared in Europe prior to it's emergence in China.
Pity the Chinese govt didn't embrace the call for an international investigation and apply its resources in that direction instead of venting their vengeance on Australia's economy.
Perhaps the source was elsewhere, however China has shown it's true colours, for all the world to see. Knowledge is by far the greatest commodity that any country can have, especially in the battle against something like covid.

[El Pinguino]

Originally Posted by Uncle Bob

Kind of funny isn't it, Australian Govt sought an international investigation of the origins of the pandemic early in the piece, Chinese Govt became very upset and promptly set about actively trying to destroy the Australian economy in some sort of retaliation, and now we have indications that the virus may have appeared in Europe prior to it's emergence in China.
Pity the Chinese govt didn't embrace the call for an international investigation and apply its resources in that direction instead of venting their vengeance on Australia's economy.
Perhaps the source was elsewhere, however China has shown it's true colours, for all the world to see. Knowledge is by far the greatest commodity that any country can have, especially in the battle against something like covid.

The CCP has shown its true colours and this should be a wake up call to the world... most if not all of which is just too dependent on China..... and that includes the US.

As a friend said to me about 20 years ago...
'In 20 years time we should consider ourselves lucky if the Chinese want to keep us as pets'.

[Thumbs Up]

IVERMECTIN

[Yihang]

Originally Posted by El Pinguino

The CCP has shown its true colours and this should be a wake up call to the world... most if not all of which is just too dependent on China..... and that includes the US.

As a friend said to me about 20 years ago...
'In 20 years time we should consider ourselves lucky if the Chinese want to keep us as pets'.

Originally Posted by Uncle Bob

Kind of funny isn't it, Australian Govt sought an international investigation of the origins of the pandemic early in the piece, Chinese Govt became very upset and promptly set about actively trying to destroy the Australian economy in some sort of retaliation, and now we have indications that the virus may have appeared in Europe prior to it's emergence in China.
Pity the Chinese govt didn't embrace the call for an international investigation and apply its resources in that direction instead of venting their vengeance on Australia's economy.
Perhaps the source was elsewhere, however China has shown it's true colours, for all the world to see. Knowledge is by far the greatest commodity that any country can have, especially in the battle against something like covid.

Ignore my name and location. I'm actually on your side.

But what true colors? China has built up a lot of leverage and is flexing it. It's all part of a long term strategy to become a dominating world power. Can't really blame them.

But what are we Australians going to do? Certainly not just standing tall and shout back with words. There needs to be a long term strategy, one that concedes China is going to be a major player going forward.

I hope people don't get the idea that if the EU and CANZUK got together and fight China in some new cold war then things will go back to the 1980s?

The key is real collaboration where both sides bring something to the table and are equal partners. The Chinese respect technology, Australia with the CSIRO really need to put more funding into this. Solar for example. Posturing and selling commodities wont get us anywhere with the Chinese. As a small nation we really need to step up our technology game or we are going to get stuck in the situation we are in today where we can talk **** but still rely on selling commodities to China. Hate to say it but right now the CCP has no respect for us and all the leverage.

[Thumbs Up]

https://covid19criticalcare.com/wp-c...f-COVID-19.pdf

[Uncle Bob]

Originally Posted by Yihang

Ignore my name and location. I'm actually on your side.

But what true colors? China has built up a lot of leverage and is flexing it. It's all part of a long term strategy to become a dominating world power. Can't really blame them.

But what are we Australians going to do? Certainly not just standing tall and shout back with words. There needs to be a long term strategy, one that concedes China is going to be a major player going forward.

I hope people don't get the idea that if the EU and CANZUK got together and fight China in some new cold war then things will go back to the 1980s?

The key is real collaboration where both sides bring something to the table and are equal partners. The Chinese respect technology, Australia with the CSIRO really need to put more funding into this. Solar for example. Posturing and selling commodities wont get us anywhere with the Chinese. As a small nation we really need to step up our technology game or we are going to get stuck in the situation we are in today where we can talk **** but still rely on selling commodities to China. Hate to say it but right now the CCP has no respect for us and all the leverage.

So true, unfortunately Australia has a track record of being innovative but not following through with R&D, let alone let alone marketing.
So much of what was originally developed by the likes of the CSIRO has been "taken up" by big business elsewhere to the detriment of Aus.

[Simi 60]

Originally Posted by Uncle Bob

Kind of funny isn't it, Australian Govt sought an international investigation of the origins of the pandemic early in the piece, Chinese Govt became very upset and promptly set about actively trying to destroy the Australian economy in some sort of retaliation, and now we have indications that the virus may have appeared in Europe prior to it's emergence in China.
Pity the Chinese govt didn't embrace the call for an international investigation and apply its resources in that direction instead of venting their vengeance on Australia's economy.
Perhaps the source was elsewhere, however China has shown it's true colours, for all the world to see. Knowledge is by far the greatest commodity that any country can have, especially in the battle against something like covid.

I think that was the straw that broke the Camels back
You dont see China making accusations and demanding investigations into the western worlds "bad things" yet we jump up and down like idiots throwing rocks.
Thinking "let he who is not guilty of sin cast the first stone"

China has been playing the long game and has been a power to be taken notice of for a hell of a long time yet have not got the respect they so rightly deserve and now, one way or another, they will get it.
Australia needs to realise that we are part of Asia and get with the programme and align ourselves accordingly.
Marvellous opportunity for us and so much to learn and gain.

A shame Kevin Rudd is still not in, politics aside, someone who has some understanding of China and who speaks the language would be of benefit going forward.

[Yihang]

Originally Posted by Simi 60

I think that was the straw that broke the Camels back
You dont see China making accusations and demanding investigations into the western worlds "bad things" yet we jump up and down like idiots throwing rocks.
Thinking "let he who is not guilty of sin cast the first stone"

China has been playing the long game and has been a power to be taken notice of for a hell of a long time yet have not got the respect they so rightly deserve and now, one way or another, they will get it.
Australia needs to realise that we are part of Asia and get with the programme and align ourselves accordingly.
Marvellous opportunity for us and so much to learn and gain.

A shame Kevin Rudd is still not in, politics aside, someone who has some understanding of China and who speaks the language would be of benefit going forward.

Unfortunately I think the China issue will be the thing that divides Australia much like race politics has divided the US. Anyone who wants to work with China is going to be called a Chinese stooge, so the politicians will put on a strong show for the masses. It's easier to sell CANZUK to the masses.

[AKA-None]

So I’ve skipped the last few pages but there are a series of articles in the New York Times today about facts from 1918-19. Including death information and life expectancy in New York from about 1830 onward. It covers quite a fe pandemics from diseases we no longer have, in general.
Quite interesting reading including the part that the life expectancy in 1918 was drastically lower that the year before and the year following.
I might suggest it as a possible option for a history lesson of previous pandemics.

[Uncle Bob]

Originally Posted by Yihang

Unfortunately I think the China issue will be the thing that divides Australia much like race politics has divided the US. Anyone who wants to work with China is going to be called a Chinese stooge, so the politicians will put on a strong show for the masses. It's easier to sell CANZUK to the masses.

You may actually be right, but it is pretty difficult to work with someone that steadfastly refuses to even respond to attempts to enter into dialogue on any outstanding issues.
Now is the time that meaningful dialogue, however difficult, would have been the best outcome for all, especially the Chinese Government, in that it would appear to all that they were in fact interested in identifying the original source of of the virus and working with the rest of the developed world towards a resolution.
Treating others with absolute contempt is never a successful tactic, especially on a national level.

[Singularity]

Originally Posted by Uncle Bob

You may actually be right, but it is pretty difficult to work with someone that steadfastly refuses to even respond to attempts to enter into dialogue on any outstanding issues.
Now is the time that meaningful dialogue, however difficult, would have been the best outcome for all, especially the Chinese Government, in that it would appear to all that they were in fact interested in identifying the original source of of the virus and working with the rest of the developed world towards a resolution.
Treating others with absolute contempt is never a successful tactic, especially on a national level.

I'm not sure if I read the above accurately, but China did publish the genetic sequencing for Covid in early January (~random news link here), which was quite helpful (not like they could have sat on it, but still).

Otherwise regarding China and technology, there are 2 technical organizations I used to belong to, routinely attend conferences. Not sure if it's like this in all fields, but Chinese attendees were practically always in the front row, camcorder set up for every presentation, taking notes. The whole deal being open source, nonetheless I'd say they took things much more seriously than the rest of us. I dare say is shows.