Visit our Popular Forums

UFO · 15-12-2020, 05:39

https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/eid/article/26/5/19-0994_article

I'm probably behind the curve ball, but why did the CDC (from an original University of Hong Kong report they have on their website) change their minds from this report?

goboatingnow · 15-12-2020, 05:44

Quote:

Originally Posted by UFO

https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/eid/article/26/5/19-0994_article

I'm probably behind the curve ball, but why did the CDC (from an original University of Hong Kong report they have on their website) change their minds from this report?

What’s suggests they changed their mind

The conclusion on masks is in this piece in the report

“. In theory, transmission should be reduced the most if both infected members and other contacts wear masks, but compliance in uninfected close contacts could be a problem (12,34). Proper use of face masks is essential because improper use might increase the risk for transmission (39). Thus, education on the proper use and disposal of used face masks, including hand hygiene, is also needed.”

Hence the public health advise has developed to include everyone wearing masks ( like in Greece for example ) all the time

The cdc reports righty is concerned about selective mask wearing

UFO · 15-12-2020, 05:52

Quote:

Originally Posted by goboatingnow

What’s suggests they changed their mind

The conclusion on masks is in this piece in the report

“. In theory, transmission should be reduced the most if both infected members and other contacts wear masks, but compliance in uninfected close contacts could be a problem (12,34). Proper use of face masks is essential because improper use might increase the risk for transmission (39). Thus, education on the proper use and disposal of used face masks, including hand hygiene, is also needed.”

Hence the public health advise has developed to include everyone wearing masks ( like in Greece for example ) all the time

The cdc reports righty is concerned about selective mask wearing

Err This... Which is based on actual studies and not theory....

"In our systematic review, we identified 10 RCTs that reported estimates of the effectiveness of face masks in reducing laboratory-confirmed influenza virus infections in the community from literature published during 1946–July 27, 2018. In pooled analysis, we found no significant reduction in influenza transmission with the use of face masks (RR 0.78, 95% CI 0.51–1.20; I2 = 30%, p = 0.25) (Figure 2)."

goboatingnow · 15-12-2020, 06:14

Quote:

Originally Posted by UFO

Err This... Which is based on actual studies and not theory....

"In our systematic review, we identified 10 RCTs that reported estimates of the effectiveness of face masks in reducing laboratory-confirmed influenza virus infections in the community from literature published during 1946–July 27, 2018. In pooled analysis, we found no significant reduction in influenza transmission with the use of face masks (RR 0.78, 95% CI 0.51–1.20; I2 = 30%, p = 0.25) (Figure 2)."

You are mixing up two things , the tests and the advice

The results of ( limited ) tests with stated drawbacks suggested no material effect was seen on influenza infection

However that series of tests did not change the advice on relation to ask wearing , where my conclusion piece mentioned “ in theory “ , the report went on to outlive the advice associated with mask wearing , it needs to be comprehensive and people need to be trained

I’ve listened to the evolution here on Ireland around masks.

Initially public health officials were skeptical largely because there were concerns as to their effectiveness and user protocols

Over time the trend had been to suggest that while they may be only slightly effective wearing them is slightly better then not wearing them.

Hence here , aside from public transport and shops , wearing them is not mandatory

Even now when asked public health officials will blow hot and cold on masks but on balance say use is better then no use.

Again here the vast majority of these measures are “ advisory “ and there is huge compliance as a result

( funnily , shops never showed up as centres of infections even before mask wearing was required in them)

If you are suggesting some of these preventive measures might be excessive or ineffective. I’d agree , but comprehensive analysis will have to wait several years to properly answer that question

In the meantime , we apply the precautionary principle

goboatingnow · 15-12-2020, 06:26

I think it’s now quite clear that the two main weapons in case reduction are social distancing , ie group settings and limiting travel. Everything else is quite limited in its effectiveness

Ireland demonstrates this quite well. Every time we limit grouping and control travel ( advisory but followed largely ) , case numbers fall dramatically , currently one of the lowest in Europe.

Even now as travel and group restrictions are easing for Christmas , case numbers are already climbing

Hence to reduce cases and hence hospitalisations and deaths , it’s simple , stay apart , don’t travel , in this country the “ wet” pubs have been shut since March , now that’s hardship.

A situation that never seem to sink in , in the USA.

mask wearing. Hand hygiene etc are all ancillary minor measures, that’s not to say they don’t have a small part to play but it’s not the major effect on the spread ( nor does anyone claim it is )

dwedeking2 · 15-12-2020, 07:12

Quote:

Originally Posted by goboatingnow

mask wearing. Hand hygiene etc are all ancillary minor measures, that’s not to say they don’t have a small part to play but it’s not the major effect on the spread ( nor does anyone claim it is )

Here in the US it's the end all / be all. Your either going to kill everyone by not wearing a mask or we're all going to die by wearing a mask and not getting enough oxygen/rebreathing the disease.

Exile · 15-12-2020, 07:17

Quote:

Originally Posted by goboatingnow

I think it’s now quite clear that the two main weapons in case reduction are social distancing , ie group settings and limiting travel. Everything else is quite limited in its effectiveness

Ireland demonstrates this quite well. Every time we limit grouping and control travel ( advisory but followed largely ) , case numbers fall dramatically , currently one of the lowest in Europe.

Even now as travel and group restrictions are easing for Christmas , case numbers are already climbing

Hence to reduce cases and hence hospitalisations and deaths , it’s simple , stay apart , don’t travel , in this country the “ wet” pubs have been shut since March , now that’s hardship.

A situation that never seem to sink in , in the USA.

mask wearing. Hand hygiene etc are all ancillary minor measures, that’s not to say they don’t have a small part to play but it’s not the major effect on the spread ( nor does anyone claim it is )

I can assure you it's sunk in amongst Americans, not for everyone obviously but not sure you can continue to single the country out given that Italy and the UK exceed the US in fatality rates, with France about on par. And as pointed out many times now, cause & effect is nowhere near as straightforward as you assert, nor as simple to achieve as you suggest. It's hard to imagine anything more counterproductive to combatting this critical stage of the pandemic than continued politicization of the issue. Whether it's looking for bogeymen to blame or, as we've also repeatedly seen, downplaying the risk.

goboatingnow · 15-12-2020, 07:18

Quote:

Originally Posted by dwedeking2

Here in the US it's the end all / be all. Your either going to kill everyone by not wearing a mask or we're all going to die by wearing a mask and not getting enough oxygen/rebreathing the disease.

I think certain political groups have presented it as that. But Fauci and other public health people have laregjy presented it as a “ good “ thing to do on a precautionary basis. I’ve not heard zealotry from him

It’s Trump almost unique in the western world decided to politicise Covid and along with it mask wearing ( insisting reporters remove masks etc )

That’s the cause of it.

Mike OReilly · 15-12-2020, 07:27

Based on all the polling, most Americans have got the message, and are following the public health guidelines. It's just a vocal minority that make it seem otherwise.

dwedeking2 · 15-12-2020, 07:30

Quote:

Originally Posted by goboatingnow

It’s Trump almost unique in the western world decided to politicise Covid and along with it mask wearing ( insisting reporters remove masks etc )

Oh, it's not just the Trumpers. It's both sides that have politicized the issue to the extreme. The veneer of civilization is very thin right now.

(I'm anti-.gov so don't root for either team).

Jason Flare · 15-12-2020, 07:33

Quote:

Originally Posted by Mike OReilly

Based on all the polling, most Americans have got the message, and are following the public health guidelines. It's just a vocal minority that make it seem otherwise.

LOL

Quote:

Yup, makes sense to me as well. Societies that have done well in this pandemic are ones that can act collectively. They can put these multiple layers in place without drama or cries of "stolen freedoms!"

Places where individuals can act for the good of everyone, not just themselves, are doing better. Societies that are more individualistic, are doing worse. And of course, societies which politicize public health measures for short term political gain are doing the worst of all.

Which is it?

goboatingnow · 15-12-2020, 07:47

Quote:

Originally Posted by dwedeking2

Oh, it's not just the Trumpers. It's both sides that have politicized the issue to the extreme. The veneer of civilization is very thin right now.

(I'm anti-.gov so don't root for either team).

That’s not so. At this stage of course both sides are mud slinging

The point is uniquely in the western world a president firstly dismissed the whole virus as nonsense , then dismissed the advice of his experts , then sidelined them, and then poured scorn on individual states and so forth.
That’s what’s started the politics processes.

In other countries leaders sought to bring communities together to emphasise collective community action , voluntary rather then mandatory approaches. Their advice was backed up by public health experts and opposition parties largely went along

Yes there is some dissension and contrarians about the place. Here for example, measures have consistently received 70%+ approvals and in fact most criticism of the Gov was that it wasn’t strict enough or acted too slowly , the close the airports opinion being typical of the public’s reaction which the Gov didn’t follow.

Lake-Effect · 15-12-2020, 07:49

Quote:

Originally Posted by dwedeking2

Oh, it's not just the Trumpers. It's both sides that have politicized the issue to the extreme. The veneer of civilization is very thin right now.

(I'm anti-.gov so don't root for either team).

I still think that in general the US right (& the alt-right, the monster they created which has escaped from the lab

) have been the most prolific at sowing and exploiting division and spreading "alternate facts", but once the center & left respond with equal vigour, it's hard to make out what's what because of all the yelling.

But I'm curious - in the world envisioned by someone who's anti-.gov, what would the pandemic response have looked like? I understand a little about what's behind a distrust of government... but to me, crises like this pandemic are proof that government is still a necessary evil, and acting as individuals, instead of a group with a common aim, would produce a far worse outcome for all.