U.S. to close..

[Mike OReilly]

Originally Posted by AKA-None

Well I’ve been offered the opportunity to participate in a vaccine trial. Haven’t read the details yet but I’ll let you know if I decide to participate

Taking part in a controlled drug trial is a far cry from administering an untested (or poorly tested) vaccine to the populace in general. I dearly hope it turns out well for Russia, but ...

[Lake-Effect]

Originally Posted by atoll

the vaccine might prove to be very effective,with few side effects,untill 9 months later when the first children start being born to vaccinated parents

There's a good joke in there somewhere.

[Stu Jackson]

Originally Posted by Mike OReilly

I spent those three weeks up-island (north Vancouver Island) a couple of months ago. During that time very few people were wearing masks -- at least not in the area I was located. I was often the odd-man out in the local grocery or booze store.

Same kind of approach in southern Alberta. I'd go into a grocery store and see maybe 20% of the people wearing masks. And this included staff.

All this was before everything really went into the Covid-crapper, so maybe people have smartened up, but I was pretty surprised at the lax attitude in these smaller, more rural areas.

You're right, much has changed in two months, very, very much. A lot in the last two or three weeks. Hence, my post, when I go into Duncan - Big Town.

And rural? I live on a rural road and property. Far from the north enders, for sure, but still country farmland with neighbors within shouting distance, but towns like you saw on your way down to Nanaimo. But rural often says, "Na, none of dem big city slicker stuff's gonna bother me." Too little, too late for some of 'em.

[Mike OReilly]

Originally Posted by Stu Jackson

You're right, much has changed in two months, very, very much. A lot in the last two or three weeks. Hence, my post, when I go into Duncan - Big Town.

And rural? I live on a rural road and property. Far from the north enders, for sure, but still country farmland with neighbors within shouting distance, but towns like you saw on your way down to Nanaimo. But rural often says, "Na, none of dem big city slicker stuff's gonna bother me." Too little, too late for some of 'em.

I'm glad to hear things have changed Stu. I really was the unusual one where we were up north of Comox/Courteny.

It felt like those halcyon days when the big cities like New York and Toronto were getting hit hard, and the more rural/remote areas and states were remaining covid-free. Fast forward, especially in the USA, and we see most of the rapid growth is in these same less-populated areas. I worry if we're going to see the same thing here in Canada.

[Mike OReilly]

Going back to the mask efficacy question, this Canadian investigative journalism show (Marketplace) did another analysis of the various types. Here's the link for those who care:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EHVyy08L2gM

[Singularity]

Originally Posted by atoll

the vaccine might prove to be very effective,with few side effects,untill 9 months later when the first children start being born to vaccinated parents

FWIW, over that last 10 years there's been a big upsurge in research on the impact of mom's stress on her unborn child (as well as father and environmental factors). Summarizing much, mom's stress level during pregnancy is associated with atypical brain/body development in the child with lifelong consequences (in at least a subset of children).

All in, much more likely that this will create more health problems than any rare vaccine problem (that really isn't probably in the first place).

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5673140/
https://www.sciencedaily.com/release...0529090530.htm
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3296090/

[NPCampbell]

Originally Posted by GordMay

“How to stop restaurants from driving COVID infections”
US mobile data suggests restaurants, gyms and cafes can be COVID hotspots — and reveals strategies for limiting spread.
Now, a new model using mobile-phone data, to map people’s movements, suggests that these venues could account for most COVID-19 infections in US cities.
The model, published in Nature , also reveals how reducing occupancy in venues can significantly cut the number of infections.
They found that opening restaurants at full capacity led to the largest increase in infections, followed by gyms, cafes and hotels and motels.

If Chicago had reopened restaurants on 1 May, there would have been nearly 600,000 additional infections that month, while Opening gyms would have produced 149,000 extra infections. If all venues were open, the model predicts that there would have been 3.3 million additional cases.
But capping occupancy for all venues at 30%, would reduce the number of additional infections to 1.1 million, the model estimated.
If occupancy was capped at 20%, new infections would be reduced by more than 80% to about 650,000 cases.
More ➥ https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-03140-4

Every year traffic accidents kill roughly the same number of people that Covid has worldwide and injures 10x more than that. It is estimated that a 20 MPH drop in all speed limits would lower the number of fatalities by 70%. Should we mandate lower speed limits to save lives?

We tried doing this with a national speed limit and that was repealed in 1995. 80% of the drivers on the highway exceeded the limit ... probably because most people, being adults, weighed the risks and accepted the higher probability of an accident over the inconvenience of getting to their destination slower. I find a lot of similarities between many of the failed historical mandates and the ones being suggested today.

[GordMay]

Originally Posted by NPCampbell

Every year traffic accidents kill roughly the same number of people that Covid has worldwide ...

Bullshti! You're not even close.

In the USA (for instance), the number of Covid-19 deaths is (will be this year) nearly 10 times the annual number of traffic fatalities.

According to Johns Hopkins University, The first case of COVID-19 in US was reported 295 days ago on 1/21/2020.
Since then, the country has reported 10,552,821 cases, and 242,423 deaths.
➥ https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/data/new-cases


USA = 249,998 deaths (11,066,546 cases)
World = 1,311,032 deaths (53,837,070 cases)
➥ https://www.worldometers.info/corona...as1?#countries



According to the U.S. Department of Transportation's Fatality Analysis Reporting System (FARS):
The U.S. Department of Transportation's most recent estimate (2018) of the annual economic cost of crashes is $242 billion dollars.
There were 33,654 fatal motor vehicle crashes in the United States in 2018 in which 36,560 deaths occurred.
This resulted in 11.2 deaths per 100,000 people and 1.13 deaths per 100 million miles traveled. The fatality rate per 100,000 people ranged from 4.4 in the District of Columbia to 22.2 in Mississippi. The death rate per 100 million miles traveled ranged from 0.54 in Massachusetts to 1.83 in South Carolina.

Montana had the highest estimated percentage of fatally injured drivers with blood alcohol concentrations (BACs) of 0.08 percent or higher (45 percent), and West Virginia had the lowest (12 percent).

In 2018, fatally injured occupants were approximately half as likely to have been restrained (seat belt, child car seat) compared with the nationwide average. California had the highest restraint use percentage among fatally injured occupants at 61 percent. New Hampshire had the lowest restraint use among fatally injured occupants at just 28 percent. In 2018, fatally injured occupants were approximately half as likely to have been restrained compared with the nationwide average.

In 2018, speeding was a factor in 26 percent of motor vehicle crash deaths. In 2018, the percentage of crash deaths involving speeding was higher on minor roads (30 percent) than on interstates and freeways (28 percent) or on other major roads (23 percent).

The National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) has been grappling with a recent spike in pedestrian deaths that some attribute to more distraction and use of electronic devices. In 2018, the number of pedestrians killed rose to its highest level since 1990 climbing 3.4% to 6,283.

As reported by the Insurance Institute for Highway Safety (IIHS) , and the Highway Loss Data Institute (HLDI)
More ➥ https://www.iihs.org/topics/fatality...-state#fn1ref1
And ➥ https://www.iihs.org/topics/fatality...early-snapshot

NSC traffic fatality estimates are slightly higher.
The National Safety Council (NSC) estimate of total motor-vehicle deaths in the first six months of 2020 is 18,300, up 1% from the preliminary 2019 estimate of 18,200.
In 2019, an estimated 38,800 people lost their lives to car crashes – a 2% decline from 2018 (39,404 deaths) and a 4% decline from 2017 (40,231 deaths).
➥ https://injuryfacts.nsc.org/motor-ve...ary-estimates/

[UFO]

Originally Posted by Lake-Effect

There's a good joke in there somewhere.

Probably in bad taste though

[UFO]

Originally Posted by GordMay

Bullshti! You're not even close.

In the USA (for instance), the number of Covid-19 deaths is (will be this year) nearly 10 times the annual number of traffic fatalities.

According to Johns Hopkins University, The first case of COVID-19 in US was reported 295 days ago on 1/21/2020.
Since then, the country has reported 10,552,821 cases, and 242,423 deaths.
➥ https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/data/new-cases


USA = 249,998 deaths (11,066,546 cases)
World = 1,311,032 deaths (53,837,070 cases)
➥ https://www.worldometers.info/corona...as1?#countries



According to the U.S. Department of Transportation's Fatality Analysis Reporting System (FARS):
The U.S. Department of Transportation's most recent estimate (2018) of the annual economic cost of crashes is $242 billion dollars.
There were 33,654 fatal motor vehicle crashes in the United States in 2018 in which 36,560 deaths occurred.
This resulted in 11.2 deaths per 100,000 people and 1.13 deaths per 100 million miles traveled. The fatality rate per 100,000 people ranged from 4.4 in the District of Columbia to 22.2 in Mississippi. The death rate per 100 million miles traveled ranged from 0.54 in Massachusetts to 1.83 in South Carolina.

Montana had the highest estimated percentage of fatally injured drivers with blood alcohol concentrations (BACs) of 0.08 percent or higher (45 percent), and West Virginia had the lowest (12 percent).

In 2018, fatally injured occupants were approximately half as likely to have been restrained (seat belt, child car seat) compared with the nationwide average. California had the highest restraint use percentage among fatally injured occupants at 61 percent. New Hampshire had the lowest restraint use among fatally injured occupants at just 28 percent. In 2018, fatally injured occupants were approximately half as likely to have been restrained compared with the nationwide average.

In 2018, speeding was a factor in 26 percent of motor vehicle crash deaths. In 2018, the percentage of crash deaths involving speeding was higher on minor roads (30 percent) than on interstates and freeways (28 percent) or on other major roads (23 percent).

The National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) has been grappling with a recent spike in pedestrian deaths that some attribute to more distraction and use of electronic devices. In 2018, the number of pedestrians killed rose to its highest level since 1990 climbing 3.4% to 6,283.

As reported by the Insurance Institute for Highway Safety (IIHS) , and the Highway Loss Data Institute (HLDI)
More ➥ https://www.iihs.org/topics/fatality...-state#fn1ref1
And ➥ https://www.iihs.org/topics/fatality...early-snapshot

NSC traffic fatality estimates are slightly higher.
The National Safety Council (NSC) estimate of total motor-vehicle deaths in the first six months of 2020 is 18,300, up 1% from the preliminary 2019 estimate of 18,200.
In 2019, an estimated 38,800 people lost their lives to car crashes – a 2% decline from 2018 (39,404 deaths) and a 4% decline from 2017 (40,231 deaths).
➥ https://injuryfacts.nsc.org/motor-ve...ary-estimates/

Actually not Bullsh$t The world is bigger than the USA - Its not the baseball series The post stated worldwide!

• 1.35 million people die in road accidents worldwide every year — 3,700 deaths a day.
• Car crashes have risen to the 8th leading cause of death for people globally.

And also as stated the injuries are far greater.

[UFO]

Originally Posted by Singularity

FWIW, over that last 10 years there's been a big upsurge in research on the impact of mom's stress on her unborn child (as well as father and environmental factors). Summarizing much, mom's stress level during pregnancy is associated with atypical brain/body development in the child with lifelong consequences (in at least a subset of children).

All in, much more likely that this will create more health problems than any rare vaccine problem (that really isn't probably in the first place).

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5673140/
https://www.sciencedaily.com/release...0529090530.htm
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3296090/

Yes but what is a rare vaccine problem when you jab 7 billion people? Maybe not so rare?

[Dockhead]

Originally Posted by Mike OReilly

Taking part in a controlled drug trial is a far cry from administering an untested (or poorly tested) vaccine to the populace in general. I dearly hope it turns out well for Russia, but ...

They may have decided to take a calculated risk -- that the acceleration of rollout of the vaccine would be beneficial enough in the heat of the pandemic, to justify the risk.

Putin has had his own daughter vaccinated with Sputnik V (apparently not himself, however ).

The process is highly efficient -- basically a giant Phase III test using a bunch of the Russian population. So it if works, it really will accelerate rollout, and by months.

And apparently so far, so good.

There is more and more evidence that vaccination will be effective, and so more and more reason to hope that we can stop this pandemic next year. The key is that the virus has error checking in its replication mechanism, which greatly slows down mutation. It means that it's much less of a moving target for our immune systems, which means vaccines should work better than they work against the flu.

[atoll]

Originally Posted by UFO

Yes but what is a rare vaccine problem when you jab 7 billion people? Maybe not so rare?

what could possibly go wrong

https://horizon-magazine.eu/article/...-vaccines.html

[UFO]

Originally Posted by atoll

what could possibly go wrong

https://horizon-magazine.eu/article/...-vaccines.html

Well that's the problem - Its not like humans have a great track record of screwing with nature, Just look at Australia we've made a few cock ups here!


These are 100% experimental vaccines, they have NEVER been tried or tested before covid. The current Pfizer one is based on a genetic manipulation of mRNA whilst the Oxford one is a genetically modified chimpanzee cold virus spliced with genetically modified Covid proteins. There is a reason that the genetic modification of plants has a long, slow and well tested path to ensure the safety of the planet and all species onboard, yet these vaccines are being rushed through at breakneck speed.



Its all very well to test and say there is no major issues on 50K people, but when you are rolling this out on a planetary level then its a whole different ballgame and as far as the LONG TERM effects of such a vaccine, they simply do not have a clue - It could have untold consequences on the human race which could range from devastating to pretty much nothing - The point is they do not know and will only find out (if they were to ever admit it) years or tens of years down the line.


So they are really throwing the dice here, as Clint used to say, "Are you feeling Lucky Punk?"



Putting the trillions of $ profit aside, is it really worth it to protect 0.016% of the worlds populace per year (actually less as there will still be major deaths after the vaccine) for the risk to the rest of the worlds populace and whatever may come of it in the future?

[GordMay]

Originally Posted by UFO

Actually not Bullsh$t
The world is bigger than the USA ... The post stated worldwide.
1.35 million people die in road accidents worldwide every year...

Thanks for pointing that out, UFO.
I was unaware (but should have known, before I posted) of that statistic.
You’re also correct in pointing out that The world is bigger than the USA. I chose to illustrate my point, with US statistics, because they are very easy to acquire, the US is the home of a majority of CF members, and is probably (somewhat) representative of the developed countries the vast majority of the rest of us (cruisers) call home.

It’s true:
Approximately 1.35 million people die in road crashes each year, worldwide.

However:
That statistic is not very representative of the reality in most of our homelands, nor those countries, to which we (mostly) cruise. Notwithstanding, my reply was non-responsive (and erroneous, to the quoted statement), and we should be aware of the realities, outside of our normal experience.

To Whit:
- More than half of all road traffic deaths occur among vulnerable road users—pedestrians, cyclists, and motorcyclists.
- More than 90% (±93%) of all road fatalities occur in low- and middle-income countries, even though these countries have approximately 60% of the world’s vehicles. The crash death rate is over three times higher in low-income countries than in high-income countries (highest in the African region).

A number of factors contribute to road crashes and resulting deaths and severity of injuries. These include:
- Poor road infrastructure and management
- Non-road worthy vehicles
- Unenforced or non-existent traffic laws*
- Unsafe road user behaviors and
- Inadequate post-crash care.

Effective interventions include designing safer infrastructure and incorporating road safety features into land-use and transport planning, improving the safety features of vehicles, improving post-crash care for victims of road crashes, setting and enforcing laws relating to key risks* (including speed limits), and raising public awareness.

World Health Organization (WHO) ➥ https://www.who.int/news-room/fact-s...affic-injuries

The Global status report on road safety 2018, launched by WHO in December 2018, highlights that the number of annual road traffic deaths has reached 1.35 million. Road traffic injuries are now the leading killer of people aged 5-29 years. The burden is disproportionately borne by pedestrians, cyclists and motorcyclists, in particular those living in developing countries. The report suggests that the price paid for mobility is too high, especially because proven measures exist. Drastic action is needed to put these measures in place to meet any future global target that might be set and save lives.
WHO ➥ https://www.who.int/publications/i/item/9789241565684


* Relative to NPCampbell’s comment about “... a 20 MPH drop in all speed limits would lower the number of fatalities by 70%. Should we mandate lower speed limits to save lives? ...”
Answer: In some cases, yes.