U.S. to close..

[Mike OReilly]

Originally Posted by S/V Illusion

Facts matter. Even in California.
Those ‘do nothing’ models actually predicted 2 to 3 MILLION deaths. What we experienced is 90% reduction by doing what we’ve done. Not great but not bad either by comparison.

Actually, the facts are that initial estimates gave a range of mortality, going from 200,000 to 1.7 million people.

Worst-Case Estimates for U.S. Coronavirus Deaths

These were the very initial estimates before much was really known. More informed estimates based on modelling once more was understood started to show the worst case mortality range in around the 200,000 - 300,000 range.

The full range of estimates and modeling are available here.

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019...-previous.html

[S/V Illusion]

Originally Posted by Mike OReilly

.


These were the very initial estimates before much was really known. More informed estimates based on modelling once more was understood started to show the worst case mortality range in around the 200,000 - 300,000 range.


]

That refers only to an estimate dated March, 2020. Cherry picking numbers seems like an art form these days

[Mike OReilly]

Originally Posted by S/V Illusion

That refers only to an estimate dated March, 2020. Cherry picking numbers seems like an art form these days

You quoted from a very early prediction which seems to be invoked to show how well things are going in the USA. If you're going to do so, then it is cherry-picking to only present the highest possible number, and ignore the whole range.

[S/V Illusion]

Originally Posted by Mike OReilly

You quoted from a very early prediction which seems to be invoked to show how well things are going in the USA. If you're going to do so, then it is cherry-picking to only present the highest possible number, and ignore the whole range.

Let’s review - someone else posted an erroneous quote of early Covid mortality and ALL I DID was correct that specific quote.

To be correct, the original estimate was 2-3 million deaths, not the 200k -300k he cited. I made no judgments about “how well things are going”.

This isn’t that complicated...

[kmacdonald]

Unfortunately the little people aren't given the facts, they need hope. It's not hard to see past the BS if you aren't clinging to every morsel of political posturing. The effects of lifestyle on the spread of Covid determines the rate os spread for the most part. Its foolish to think a mask not designed to stop a virus will stop a virus but some have swallowed it hook line and sinker. They are the same ones inflating their tires.

[Mike OReilly]

Originally Posted by S/V Illusion

Let’s review - someone else posted an erroneous quote of early Covid mortality and ALL I DID was correct that specific quote.

To be correct, the original estimate was 2-3 million deaths, not the 200k -300k he cited. I made no judgments about “how well things are going”.

This isn’t that complicated...

But the actual original estimate is not 2-3 million deaths. It is 200,000 to 1.7 million.


ADD: I'm all for correcting false information. So... provide the correct information when you make the correction.

[kmacdonald]

Originally Posted by S/V Illusion

Let’s review - someone else posted an erroneous quote of early Covid mortality and ALL I DID was correct that specific quote.

To be correct, the original estimate was 2-3 million deaths, not the 200k -300k he cited. I made no judgments about “how well things are going”.

This isn’t that complicated...

Dont confuse him with facts.

[markpierce]

Don't foresee changes until the new government takes charge in January.

[Lake-Effect]

Originally Posted by S/V Illusion

Don’t get why some imply we haven’t been working together. Despite the hyperbole about it being a “s..it show”, we have effectively united.

As to what marinas may be forced to do henceforth, it would be a frivolous transparent gesture to close them given its winter and many are already effectively abandoned. All that’s left to see is how eager some are to appear to be engaged regardless of any substantive action.

This thread already nicely demonstrates that there's still a deep divide and confusion or misinformation among Americans about COVID-19 and how to get through the pandemic phase.

I won't hold my breath, but a forming a bipartisan committee of the more pragmatic and less ideological members of both parties, to provide a single, consistent and trusted national direction on the US pandemic response would be helpful.


(and I'm not expecting US marina closures unless the marinas become sources of infection because of poor or lax distancing, etc. )

[Cheechako]

Here's some new news: Humans have given the virus to mink in Denmark. The mink have given it back to humans in modified form. 214 humans have contracted it so far. That will likely skyrocket. 15 million mink are being killed.

[S/V Illusion]

Originally Posted by Mike OReilly

But the actual original estimate is not 2-3 million deaths. It is 200,000 to 1.7 million.

It's interesting to see how some allow their perception to distort facts. That might explain all the hyperbole over the past 4 years.



If you think March, 2020 was the date of the "original" estimate, you might want to do a bit more reading. If you were awake in January, you might have seen, heard or read the original estimate then to be 2 - 3 million.



You are entitled to your own opinion but not your own facts.

[AiniA]

We are not talking about March or January, we are talking about November. Over 100,000 new cases today - on a Sunday when numbers are always low. I think the US is heading to 200,000 a day quite soon unfortunately. It is not too late to do something about it with proper masking and social distancing. Look at how well Victoria did when they had a serious outbreak. There will be an economic impact but nothing like the economic and social impact of ten million new cases between now and when Biden takes office.

[NPCampbell]

Originally Posted by Cheechako

Unlike South Korea and others, we didn't do the right things to end it. They started the SAME DAY we did.
We just drug it out with lip service until now everyone is just too tired of it all to what's necessary. AND now re-stopping is a problem too because it took so long it became political.

The only countries that have been successful at containing the virus are island nations. For all practical purposes, South Korea is an island nation. Trying to traverse their northern border will kill you faster than Covid will.

Originally Posted by Cheechako

So I don't know what will need to happen, likely a short complete shutdown like should have been done in the beginning.??
Look at the S. Korea response by April below:

A complete shutdown only works in countries that can control their borders. We can't. Most of Europe can't.

Most of Europe went through a complete shutdown. Now, most of Europe is experiencing the highest infection rates in the world by far. France, Belgium, UK, Spain, Italy all are running higher infection rates per capita than the US and have been for around 2 months now. This is a pretty telling stat considering the US tests more per capita than any large country in the world outside of the UK.

[Mike OReilly]

Originally Posted by S/V Illusion

It's interesting to see how some allow their perception to distort facts. That might explain all the hyperbole over the past 4 years.



If you think March, 2020 was the date of the "original" estimate, you might want to do a bit more reading. If you were awake in January, you might have seen, heard or read the original estimate then to be 2 - 3 million.



You are entitled to your own opinion but not your own facts.

I provided sources and links, including to the very first estimates. You offer unsubstantiated claims and insults.

I guess people can decide who is offering facts.

[Simi 60]

Originally Posted by NPCampbell

The only countries that have been successful at containing the virus are island nations. For all practical purposes, South Korea is an island nation. Trying to traverse their northern border will kill you faster than Covid will.




.

Rubbish
Look at Vietnam for one
100,000 people
Borders China and a few other countries.


Vietnam
Total cases
1,213

Recovered
1,070

Deaths
35