U.S. to close..

[atoll]

Originally Posted by a64pilot

Has there ever been an example of that? Drugs taken by pregnant women of course there are example of that, and one would assume a vaccine could hurt an unborn child, but has there ever been an example of what your saying?

MRNA has never been tried before so who knows what unintended long term effects will be of cell manipulation with designer RNA strands apart from maybe God who must have been using similar techniques to come up with DNA

[Lake-Effect]

Originally Posted by a64pilot

At current infection rates, we will never get to herd immunity.

Well, it's arguable that some countries (eg UK, Sweden) had that in mind, at least initially, until they discovered that asymptomatic spread was not happening as fast as expected. (and herd immunity seems to be the de facto strategy in the US)

Unchecked or insufficiently controlled spread is exponential, so herd immunity through infection is indeed still possible... but at a horrible cost.

[a64pilot]

Originally Posted by Lake-Effect

Yes... but right now we have a very different situation from early 2020:

• we know much more about how COVID-19 is spread, so we're able to be more 'precise' with measures, to minimise their harm
• we have better knowledge of treatment
• there's every indication that an effective vaccine will be widely available in the second quarter of 2021... or maybe sooner
• ... yet in most places we are facing a surge because of lowering our guard too much

So the immediate question is whether society has the stones to prevent many needless deaths and illness, and to keep healthcare functioning for everyone, over the next 4 or 5 months.

On a personal level (talking to all CFers here), would you be willing to tolerate further lockdowns and other restrictive measures between now and April, if it meant maybe 100000 to 200000 less Americans dying? (or similar in other countries and regions)

If you're a wage-slave or small business owner, this brings the risk of loss of income, and knock-on effects. If you're In the boat-owning class or better, the risk is national debt, increases in taxation, continued restrictions on movement, so that the wage-slaves and the working poor aren't harmed as much.

To start with, I don’t believe your 100,000 to 200,000 number.
Secondly why a lockdown?Why not just don’t go where people congregate? Churches, Sports events, Out to eat etc.
I won’t go out to eat, haven’t since this started. However last night I went to pick up a Pizza, we are now living very close to “The Villages” in Fl. So average age here is pretty high, many if not most are high risk, yet the Pizza parlor was stuffed to capacity, nobody made those people be there, but if they want to be stupid, I guess that should be allowed. Not wearing a helmet to ride a motorcycle is stupid, but many don’t wear one, and most wear a junk one, but that’s allowed.

Disney World being open is well, just stupid.

We don’t need a “lockdown” slowing the spread wouldn’t require anything close to that, however the only logical course of action is Vaccination, and in my opinion restrictions on requiring social distancing.

So far as masks, who cares? My personal belief is they aren’t very effective, but wearing one is no big deal, costs actually nothing, so I wear one, why not wear one?

Even if a Vaccination turned .1% into Zombies, it may be worth it. Bottom line is it’s simple math, you take the least harmful course of action, period, but any course of action will have victims, even no action will have victims.

[Singularity]

Originally Posted by Dsanduril

Because it seems to fit in the context of this current thread, and with none of my own opinion attached:
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/11/12/h...s-stalled.html (sorry about the paywall if you’ve read too much there this month). The intro bits:
WHO source with link to data/paper

If you google "anti vaccination Africa" you can get an introduction to the increasing problem of vaccinations in the developing world...not just in the more developed world. Rumor mills, anti-science from prominent church people, pseudoscience concerns about HCG/birth control in vaccinations, etc, etc, etc, etc.

This is a tremendous problem only exacerbated by Covid, and it's quite important to not blame the all the unvaccinated deaths on Covid slowdowns. This science-ignorance-fear stuff is primal, but ultimately acts to slow population growth I suppose.

[Lake-Effect]

Originally Posted by a64pilot

To start with, I don’t believe your 100,000 to 200,000 number.

You don't have to believe me. And for the MSM-haterz who are too lazy to dig further, the source.

Secondly why a lockdown?Why not just don’t go where people congregate? Churches, Sports events, Out to eat etc.

I won’t go out to eat, haven’t since this started. However last night I went to pick up a Pizza, we are now living very close to “The Villages” in Fl. So average age here is pretty high, many if not most are high risk, yet the Pizza parlor was stuffed to capacity, nobody made those people be there, but if they want to be stupid, I guess that should be allowed. Not wearing a helmet to ride a motorcycle is stupid, but many don’t wear one, and most wear a junk one, but that’s allowed.

Well, refusing to wear a helmet affects mainly the non-wearer. Refusing to help suppress this pandemic means it continues to spread, and those who will be worst-affected are not necessarily those who facilitated the spread.

Why a lockdown? They are the measure of last resort, when milder or voluntary measures aren't doing the job. I don't want to see any more, but I don't think just shrugging and accepting high numbers of casualties is better.

[GordMay]

Originally Posted by a64pilot

One has to call into question as how those Covid death numbers are derived at...

It is important to be able to distinguish between deaths where COVID-19 was a contributory cause, from those where COVID-19 was the underlying cause of death.

Here's how Cause of Death Coding works:

Reporting and Coding Deaths Due to COVID-19 ~ CDC
This page provides guidance and resources for reporting deaths due to COVID-19 on death certificates. When COVID-19 is determined to be a cause of death, it is important that it be reported on the death certificate to accurately assess the effects of this pandemic and appropriately direct public health response.
➥ https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/covid19/cod...-reporting.htm

International guidelines for certification and classification (coding) of COVID-19 as cause of death ~ WHO
➥ https://www.who.int/docs/default-sou...rsn=35fdd864_2
➥ https://www.who.int/classifications/...ID-19.pdf?ua=1

[capn_billl]

Originally Posted by Dsanduril

Because it seems to fit in the context of this current thread, and with none of my own opinion attached:

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/11/12/h...s-stalled.html (sorry about the paywall if you’ve read too much there this month). The intro bits:



WHO source with link to data/paper

If course this has NOTHING to do with 30 million people from 3rd world countries with active epidemics, and no medical system to give vaccinations entering the US illegally.

No tens of thousands of measles cases are caused entirely by a few dozen "anti vaxxers".

30 % measles outbreaks in a population that is better than 90% vaccinated by law to attend public schools.

Almost like the measles strains from South America are different enough from the US vaccine it doesn't provide complete protection....

[a64pilot]

Originally Posted by Lake-Effect

Well, it's arguable that some countries (eg UK, Sweden) had that in mind, at least initially, until they discovered that asymptomatic spread was not happening as fast as expected. (and herd immunity seems to be the de facto strategy in the US)

Unchecked or insufficiently controlled spread is exponential, so herd immunity through infection is indeed still possible... but at a horrible cost.

What makes you think herd immunity is the US strategy?

There are two camps here and they are spilt by political lines.

One camp says we should lock everything down, shut down everything and take money from the rich 1% to pay for it. They believe that will “Stop the spread of Covid”, they really believe that.
They ignore the simple fact that you can’t simply lock down, it’s not possible, people would starve, and freeze to death in the coming Winter etc., etc. A large percentage MUST work in order to keep modern society alive, for example every working member in my immediate family was considered “Essential”, none lost a single days work and unless you owned a Bar or eating establishment, every small business person I know worked, they had to, the bank still had to be paid or they would lose their business, I’m talking electricians, auto repair, plumbers, welders, carpenters, etc.

There never was a lockdown in the US that I saw, every gas station was open, highways full of traffic and people shopping in stores is what i saw. Sure you couldn’t go out to eat or get your hair cut, but you could still buy TV’s and every other single consumer good. Amazon never stopped delivering, and you got take out food, people never had to cook for themselves.

Second camp is as it always has been, is business focused, and that doesn’t mean they are good, far from it, my personal belief is that the majority of them are blood sucking Vampires at best, and most are thieves plain and simple, justify everything by saying “it’s just business”.

But I want you to understand something, you won’t believe it, but the money of the 1% is untouchable, your not getting at it plain and simple. they own too many Lawyers and likely have their money overseas as it is now, Look at the Mega Yachts in Ft. Lauderdale for example, how many are US flagged? Why do you think that is?

Then there is the plain and simple fact that, thank God the President or the Federal Government does not have the power or authority to do the things you guys seem to want them to do, and hopefully that doesn’t change.

[capn_billl]

Originally Posted by a64pilot

At current infection rates, we will never get to herd immunity. For that a Vaccine is our only hope.
We never got herd immunity for any of the diseases that people are vaccinated for, Herd immunity is actually pretty rare. Bad as Malaria is for example we aren’t even close to herd immunity for that.

Malaria is a poor choice.

There is no immunity from repeated exposure, you can get it repeatedly.

Once you get it, you always have it. It would take a complete blood replacement to eliminate it.

There ARE native Africans that are immune from generations of exposure by a genetic mutation that causes sickle cell anemia, but makes their hemoglobin impermeable to the malaria parasite.

[BigAl.NZ]

Originally Posted by a64pilot

One has to call into question as how those Covid death numbers are derived at.
I am not saying that Covid isn’t killing people, far from it, but if someone on their death bed has respiratory complications, is that coded as a Covid death?
majority of people that die from just old age have respiratory problems, I believe Pneumonia is pretty common for people on their death bed, but for some reason those weren’t counted as Pneumonia deaths?

What would be more meaningful would be numbers of deaths from Covid of what would be normal healthy people, that died as a direct result of the Covid Virus, but I don’t believe those numbers exist do they?

That does not work. If a elderly person has asthma, and a weakened heart - both of which *may* one day kill them and then they get covid and die, but you do not want to call the primary cause of death covid?

People always have complications when they die - but there is usually a primary cause of death. For most of those elderly people it is a premature death (perhaps not by much but never the less premature) due to coivd - hence primary dx.

[capn_billl]

Originally Posted by a64pilot

One has to call into question as how those Covid death numbers are derived at.
I am not saying that Covid isn’t killing people, far from it, but if someone on their death bed has respiratory complications, is that coded as a Covid death?
majority of people that die from just old age have respiratory problems, I believe Pneumonia is pretty common for people on their death bed, but for some reason those weren’t counted as Pneumonia deaths?

What would be more meaningful would be numbers of deaths from Covid of what would be normal healthy people, that died as a direct result of the Covid Virus, but I don’t believe those numbers exist do they?

Actually they do.

The CDC has issued Covid death rates, totals, and breakdowns with comorbidities.

For the US deaths without other health complications are about 9,000.

Which puts the Covid about average for a Coronavirus.

[Singularity]

Originally Posted by a64pilot

....What would be more meaningful would be numbers of deaths from Covid of what would be normal healthy people, that died as a direct result of the Covid Virus, but I don’t believe those numbers exist do they?

-So why spend an average of $150,000 on each of the 500,000 heart bypasses done per year? They are all old, sick people with at least 2 chronic health problems.
-Why spend $90,000 per year on a person with kidney failure...>25 billion per year in the US?

The "but let's just focus on healthy people who die to understand the true burden of disease" logic is deceptively simplistic. If you go down that path, you ought to understand that...quite frankly...if you're over the age of 60...then society shouldn't waste healthcare resources on you. So in fact people argue for using that logic as a matter of first thought, but of course, when they/their loved one gets sick........a completely different set of logic kicks in.

They ignore the simple fact that you can’t simply lock down, it’s not possible, people would starve, and freeze to death in the coming Winter etc., etc. A large percentage MUST work in order to keep modern society alive...

Frankly I wonder if it wouldn't be better in the long run for all healthcare workers to just walk off the job tomorrow. Much of modern society are people who have do-nothing jobs paid for with monopoly money that's running out anyway. So perhaps the healthcare workers slaving it out while the Clevons pack pizza joints are just a buffer from the reality that people need to feel...

‘No One Is Listening to Us’

More people than ever are hospitalized with COVID-19. Health-care workers can’t go on like this.
https://www.theatlantic.com/health/a...orkers/617091/

[a64pilot]

Originally Posted by capn_billl

If course this has NOTHING to do with 30 million people from 3rd world countries with active epidemics, and no medical system to give vaccinations entering the US illegally.

No tens of thousands of measles cases are caused entirely by a few dozen "anti vaxxers".

30 % measles outbreaks in a population that is better than 90% vaccinated by law to attend public schools.

Almost like the measles strains from South America are different enough from the US vaccine it doesn't provide complete protection....

You should understand that you cannot have an outbreak of any disease that a Vaccine can protect you from, if the population is Vaccinated.

No Vaccine is 100%, so one that is say 90%, the worst possible scenario is a 10% infection rate, and that’s of course extremely overstated as for example even almost a year later the majority of people have yet to contract Covid and they are not vaccinated.

If there is an outbreak of anything it’s because either the vaccine was not effective, or there was a large population of unvaccinated people.

Vaccinations are like Vasectomies, it’s not 100%, but if the overwhelming majority of men had a Vasectomy, the birth rate would plummet.

[capn_billl]

The overwhelming number of people in the US are on employer paid health plans, and have ALL available vaccines.

To keep insurance coverage, and attend public schools, it is free, and required.

[Mike OReilly]

The argument against assigning death to Covid-19 is like saying the airplane crash didn't really kill those 100 people because 1/2 of them had other underlying health issues. It's an overt attempt at obfuscation.

Lockdowns, and more specifically, population isolation, can stop this virus. But the cost is probably too high. So we need to be smart about how we employ the closure measures. And we need all the adults in the room to take some responsibility for their actions.

Unfortunately too many of us are focused on our rights, and not our responsibilities.