U.S. to close..

[Pete7]

The news of a vaccine is good, though warnings in the UK press this weekend that it will take a year before we see real results.

Meanwhile, do we have a date for this closure of the USA and is it too late to send Christmas Cards?

[Jason Flare]

Originally Posted by Mike OReilly

The argument against assigning death to Covid-19 is like saying the airplane crash didn't really kill those 100 people because 1/2 of them had other underlying health issues. It's an overt attempt at obfuscation.

Lockdowns, and more specifically, population isolation, can stop this virus. But the cost is probably too high. So we need to be smart about how we employ the closure measures. And we need all the adults in the room to take some responsibility for their actions.

Unfortunately too many of us are focused on our rights, and not our responsibilities.

What I have been seeing is that many people want everyone else to take responsibility for them and few people are stepping up and are taking responsibility for themselves.

What I learned in the past several months is that some people will ignore guidelines for flattening the curve and it is my sole responsibility to protect myself. It looks like others are not going to protect me and I’ve come to a realization that it’s not really their job to do that.

[Lake-Effect]

Originally Posted by Jason Flare

What I learned in the past several months is that some people will ignore guidelines for flattening the curve and it is my sole responsibility to protect myself. It looks like others are not going to protect me and I’ve come to a realization that it’s not really their job to do that.

... if that's your conclusion, it's an admission of social failure, right? That people won't cooperate with a simple set of voluntary measures to reduce transmission, and government can't/won't impose and enforce them.

[Lake-Effect]

Originally Posted by Dockhead

You should not jump to the conclusion that Atlantic Canada has low infections as a RESULT of people's behavior and/or measures taken. There is a lot of random chance involved in which regions or countries have high infection rates, and which ones low ones. We are not as powerful as we think -- it's not all up to us.

Perfect example is Montana where people were congratulating themselves for months for having almost no infections, then wham! One of the highest infection rates in the world. No change of measures -- it just happened.

Likewise look at places like Lithuania or Czechia -- from almost no infections to some of the highest rates in the world almost overnight.

And why are there almost no infections in Finland, very few in Estonia, and one of the worst outbreaks in the world just 100km away in Lithuania? Where the measures are exactly the same everywhere?

Well, both the measures and the compliance AREN'T the same everywhere.

We can certainly see that chance played a big part in what countries got hit and how hard, at the onset of global spread... but not 9 months down the road. If a Montana, or Manitoba, or Lithuania are presently being hit hard, it's mostly because they've let down their guard, or didn't have it up sufficiently to begin with.

[Jason Flare]

Originally Posted by Lake-Effect

... if that's your conclusion, it's an admission of social failure, right? That people won't cooperate with a simple set of voluntary measures to reduce transmission, and government can't/won't impose and enforce them.

I only have my perspective.

No one had the duty to protect me.

[a64pilot]

Originally Posted by Dockhead

Hot off the press:


https://www.nytimes.com/2020/11/16/h...a-vaccine.html


ANOTHER vaccine with 90%+ efficacy, in this case 95%+!!!


Yippee! This is FANTASTIC NEWS. The light at the end of the tunnel is getting brighter.


All you anti-vaxers out there -- just don't worry about it. The rest of us will get our own shots, and we'll protect you. There aren't enough of you to stop herd immunity, so it's all good.

There may actually be enough, but if the vaccine works then only a very few besides those that didn’t get vaccinated will get it.
Diseases have made returns, based on there were enough not getting vaccinated to make it possible for the return. So herd immunity requires vaccinations to maintain it, even after a disease has been eradicated

[Lake-Effect]

Originally Posted by Jason Flare

No one had the duty to protect me.

We organize into groups and countries and societies for exactly that reason - protection. Countries have armies to protect them from outside aggression (or to exert aggression on other countries, but let's not go there), laws and police to protect citizens from each other, emergency response organizations in case of disasters... and most developed countries do have plans for responding to pandemics.

So, I think it's reasonable to expect government to mount a coordinated and effective response to this pandemic, and for citizens to cooperate because it's in their best interests overall to do so.... and if this didn't work, there's likely been a failure somewhere.

[a64pilot]

It’s true we have been dealing with Viruses for Centuries, but I know of no Pandemic that “we” beat, does anyone have an example?
Many have self extinguished, recently SARS and MERS, and I’m certain that many congratulate themselves for stopping Ebola from becoming a Pandemic, but I’d bet it’s more likely that it burnt itself out.
Which is not saying that intervention may not have saved untold numbers of lives, I think it did, but I don’t think “we” stopped Ebola.

To think that we can stop this virus by responsible behavior is wishful thinking, which is not to say that we shouldn’t act responsibly, just don’t think it’s a cure, but it may keep you from getting sick long enough to be vaccinated.

[Dockhead]

Originally Posted by Lake-Effect

Well, both the measures and the compliance AREN'T the same everywhere.

I didn't mean measures and compliance is the same everywhere. I meant everywhere in the countries I mentioned -- Finland, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania. Until recently and for many months, the measures were identical. Outcomes totally different. That was my point.

Originally Posted by Lake-Effect

We can certainly see that chance played a big part in what countries got hit and how hard, at the onset of global spread... but not 9 months down the road. If a Montana, or Manitoba, or Lithuania are presently being hit hard, it's mostly because they've let down their guard, or didn't have it up sufficiently to begin with.

I disagree, and think I've given a solid counterexample. Finland and Estonia have excellent outcomes, the best in Europe. Lithuania has a terrible outcomes -- one of the worst. Measures, compliance -- exactly the same. All neighboring countries. There are other factors at play than measures and compliance. "Guard was up" or "guard was down" to an identical degree in all these places -- I've been in all of these countries frequently during the last several months, so I'm an eye witness.

It is a big mistake to overestimate our power.

Originally Posted by a64pilot

. . . To think that we can stop this virus by responsible behavior is wishful thinking, which is not to say that we shouldn’t act responsibly, just don’t think it’s a cure, but it may keep you from getting sick long enough to be vaccinated.

Exactly.

[GordMay]

Originally Posted by a64pilot

It’s true we have been dealing with Viruses for Centuries, but I know of no Pandemic that “we” beat, does anyone have an example? ...

Poliomyelitis - Wild poliovirus type 3
The world will be eligible for Polio-Free certification following the successful certification of poliomyelitis eradication in all six WHO regions worldwide.

“... Wild poliovirus type 3 has been certified as globally eradicated by the Global Commission for the Certification of Poliomyelitis Eradication. This is the second of the three types of wild poliovirus to have been globally eradicated. Only wild poliovirus type 1 remains in circulation, in just two countries worldwide. Africa has not detected any wild poliovirus of any type since September 2016, and the entire African Region is eligible to be certified free of all wild poliovirus next June...”

Report from the Twentieth Meeting of the Global Commission for Certification ofPoliomyelitis Eradication
➥ http://polioeradication.org/wp-conte...tober-2019.pdf

1955: A vaccine, developed by Dr. Jonas Salk, is declared “safe and effective.”
1960: The U.S. government licenses the oral polio vaccine developed by Dr. Albert Sabin.
1988: The World Health Organization launch the Global Polio Eradication Initiative. There are an estimated 350,000 cases of polio in 125 countries.
1994: The International Commission for the Certification of Poliomyelitis Eradication announces that polio has been eliminated from the Americas.
2000: A record 550 million children – almost 10% of the world's population – receive the oral polio vaccine. The Western Pacific region, spanning from Australia to China, is declared polio-free.
2006: The number of polio-endemic countries drops to 4 - Afghanistan, India, Nigeria, Pakistan.
2002: India surpasses 1 year without a recorded case of polio, and is removed from the list of countries where polio is endemic. Polio remains endemic in just 3 countries.
2014: India goes 3 full years without a new case caused by the wild poliovirus, and the World Health Organization certifies the South-East Asia region polio-free. Polio cases are down over 99% since 1988.
2019: Nigeria goes 3 full years without a new case caused by the wild poliovirus.
2020: The World Health Organization certifies the African region wild polio-free.
➥

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nrmT39Mg838

[Jason Flare]

Originally Posted by Lake-Effect

We organize into groups and countries and societies for exactly that reason - protection. Countries have armies to protect them from outside aggression (or to exert aggression on other countries, but let's not go there), laws and police to protect citizens from each other, emergency response organizations in case of disasters... and most developed countries do have plans for responding to pandemics.

So, I think it's reasonable to expect government to mount a coordinated and effective response to this pandemic, and for citizens to cooperate because it's in their best interests overall to do so.... and if this didn't work, there's likely been a failure somewhere.

I’m coming from this perspective: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Warr...ct_of_Columbia

And this one:
https://www.nytimes.com/2005/06/28/p...o-protect.html

As for the government in general protecting its citizens, it has already been mentioned in this thread that immigrants are bringing diseases and from my perspective the response to covid has been split along political lines.

So, it always comes down to me being responsible for me.

[Dockhead]

Originally Posted by Pete7

The news of a vaccine is good, though warnings in the UK press this weekend that it will take a year before we see real results.. . .

That's what most scientists are saying. I think a year more to really stop this is very good . Can you imagine this dragging on for years? The world would fall apart. This is REALLY GOOD NEWS.

Originally Posted by a64pilot

There may actually be enough, but if the vaccine works then only a very few besides those that didn’t get vaccinated will get it.
Diseases have made returns, based on there were enough not getting vaccinated to make it possible for the return. So herd immunity requires vaccinations to maintain it, even after a disease has been eradicated

A lot of people make the mistake of thinking that herd immunity only works when FULL herd immunity is achieved, but it actually starts working from the first immune person. The very high efficacy of the two vaccines that have now gotten that far through Phase III is REALLY GREAT NEWS. It means a much smaller than expected proportion of people will need to be vaccinated before we start to see a big effect on R0 -- it means the vaccines will start to show population effects much earlier than expected. It also means that a certain proportion of anti-vaxers will have much less effect.



Whether we have to keep vaccinating or not I don't care so much. Compared to all the other horror we've been living with. With really effective vaccines like that it's not the end of the world if we have to get a shot every year. I won't mind doing it. Just get the COVID vax at the same time I get my annual flu shot. No big deal.

[jimbunyard]

Originally Posted by a64pilot

It’s true we have been dealing with Viruses for Centuries, but I know of no Pandemic that “we” beat, does anyone have an example?
Many have self extinguished, recently SARS and MERS, and I’m certain that many congratulate themselves for stopping Ebola from becoming a Pandemic, but I’d bet it’s more likely that it burnt itself out.
Which is not saying that intervention may not have saved untold numbers of lives, I think it did, but I don’t think “we” stopped Ebola.

To think that we can stop this virus by responsible behavior is wishful thinking, which is not to say that we shouldn’t act responsibly, just don’t think it’s a cure, but it may keep you from getting sick long enough to be vaccinated.

Smallpox and (would have been) measles, had it not been for the actions of antivaxxer nutters.

"...that we can stop this virus by responsible behavior is wishful thinking" is, if anything, more irresponsible and dangerous than the ill-informed and myopic views of the antifaxxers.

Regardless of what you 'think', virtually all of the contagious diseases (made more so by the increasing ease and rapidity of travel) in the past 150 years were and are primarily controlled by use of set protocols established at the end of the 19th and beginning of the 20th centuries, vaccines, where and when available, notwithstanding.

[Lake-Effect]

Originally Posted by a64pilot

It’s true we have been dealing with Viruses for Centuries, but I know of no Pandemic that “we” beat, does anyone have an example?

I think that good planning helped us defeat SARS. COVID-19 has been especially tough because it's more contagious, and especially because of asymptomatic and presymptomatic transmission. In this case, some of our measures succeeded, some failed... many were not implemented quickly enough...

I am certain that overall, even with failed measures and some non-compliance, we still managed to reduce the impact and save many, many lives. It really is a noble achievement, and with the lessons learned we are that much better prepared to tackle (... or prevent) the next one.

To think that we can stop this virus by responsible behavior is wishful thinking, which is not to say that we shouldn’t act responsibly, just don’t think it’s a cure, but it may keep you from getting sick long enough to be vaccinated.

The math doesn't lie; if the transmission can be reduced, the disease dies out, or at least doesn't spread as rapidly.

At this point, we only need to buy time til the vaccines roll out. As we kicked around previously, many more lives will be saved if we can behave responsibly for the next few months.

[Dockhead]

Another reason to be REALLY HAPPY about the progress with vaccines is that it is really unprecedented, to have developed effective vaccines to diseases in such a short period of time. Back in February or March it was considered wildly optimistic that we would have vaccines ready by the end of 2020. Not distributed, but at least approved and ready to start ramping up production and distribution. To hold that schedule, the really wild assumption was the first stage, which was to design the vaccine in the first place -- we know how long it takes to get through the three stages of trials, but at the time, no one could say for sure whether we would hit pay dirt with the actual vaccines. But we did. So what we are seeing is the MOST OPTIMISTIC schedules for rolling out the vaccines are now coming true.



It's just the best thing I've heard all year.