U.S. to close..

[Chotu]

Originally Posted by sailorboy1

All these people reported getting the virus and so far I personally know - 0

That’s lucky. I know a few. Plus what about all the celebrities? The president and his family? I guess you don’t know them personally but still.

[Dockhead]

Originally Posted by NevilleCat

I think we do have a pretty good idea of what can work though.
Maybe not all things that can work, sure.
Back in July Victoria, Australia recorded 723 cases. On the same day the UK recorded 763.
Now the UK has over 20000 daily infections and 150 daily deaths and in Victoria we are now on the 10th day running with no new cases and no deaths. So far.
Unfair comparison? Maybe, but surely does give some indication of potential transmission mitigation possibilities.

If you just throw the kitchen sink at it, employing every measure no matter how harsh or costly, at an early stage when there is relatively little community spread, then I guess we shouldn't be surprised to see some effect.


That's not what was done in Taiwan, Japan, South Korea, Norway or Finland, all of which have also have had great success -- so far.



So I don't know what we learn from any of this. We certainly do NOT know that the measures employed in Victoria were optimal, that ALL of them were necessary. Maybe they were, maybe they weren't. Every country is different. And there is huge randomness and externalities in the outcomes also, so neither very good outcomes or very bad outcomes are proof that measures taken in the respective countries were either good or bad. The pandemic is a very complex phenomenon. We should not overestimate our knowledge.

[Dockhead]

Here is some bloody good news:


https://www.usnews.com/news/health-n...s-90-effective


This is fantastic. Light at the end of the tunnel at last!!!

[Captain Bill]

Originally Posted by sailorboy1

All these people reported getting the virus and so far I personally know - 0

Lucky you. I personally know at least 12 people who have contracted the virus, one dead, one three weeks on a ventilator but lived, two asymptomatic (lived in the same house as symptomatic people), the rest with varying degrees of symptoms but none hospitalized. A couple are active cases now and we don't know how they'll fare as sometimes it takes weeks to get bad enough to require hospital treatment. Given that statistics show only about 25% of people who contract the virus are symptomatic, it probably means that close to 40 people I know in some capacity have had the virus. I'm not even counting family members by marriage who have relatives that I've never met get it. I have two additional dead there if you count one degree of separation. Your personal experience on not knowing anyone who has contracted the virus doesn't mean much.

[Copacabana]

Originally Posted by sailorboy1

All these people reported getting the virus and so far I personally know - 0

Me too. None in my circle of friends have gotten the virus, but I attribute this to their being careful and smart. My girlfriend's ex-in-laws, however, have almost all been sick. They have the "carry on as usual" attitude...

I'm not sure the US will have another "lockdown" (if they ever really had one), but I hope that mask use will become mandatory under the Biden government. This is going to be tough as wearing a mask has become so political under Trump.

Brazil, with all the poverty-related problems that contribute to the spread, has been slowly bringing the numbers down through mask use, social distancing and government measures. Everyone wears a mask outside the house and it's paying off.

[Franziska]

Close friend to a hospital colleague of my brother. 37 female & fit.
Day 1 Positive test, Day 2 hospital, Day 3 dead. This, is nothing to joke with.

[Dockhead]

Originally Posted by sailorboy1

All these people reported getting the virus and so far I personally know - 0

Really? Well you know me, and I had it, so not 0.


I know a bunch of people who have had it, including some close people. 2 dead, one not that old. I suspect two more dead -- the aged parents of one friend of mine who were in the hospital a few weeks ago. I dread calling him. That would make 4 dead among my acquaintances.

[pcmm]

Originally Posted by S/V Illusion

Don’t get why some imply we haven’t been working together. Despite the hyperbole about it being a “s..it show”, we have effectively united.

As to what marinas may be forced to do henceforth, it would be a frivolous transparent gesture to close them given its winter and many are already effectively abandoned. All that’s left to see is how eager some are to appear to be engaged regardless of any substantive action.

Unfortunately from the outside looking in, the U.S. appears to not have taken this issue seriously.. it appears. To almost be “business as usual” and 100,000 new cases per day doesn’t even seem to concern those in power. It looks be interesting to see if there is a change in approach (and by how much) with the new administration.

[sailorboy1]

Originally Posted by Dockhead

Really? Well you know me, and I had it, so not 0.

I dont know you at all. My comment stands I PERSONALLY know no one who has had the virus.

[Dockhead]

Originally Posted by sailorboy1

I dont know you at all. My comment stands I PERSONALLY know no one who has had the virus.

Well, fine. Just be that way.

[AA3JY]

I personally know of 37 veteran COVID deaths at the Pa. Veterans Center ..about 4 miles from home in SE Pa....

[Captain Bill]

Masks have been shown to be very effective, so I don't understand the politicization of wearing them. It's kind of like seat belts and airbag laws. Both limit your personal freedom, yet I haven't seen any political party making a case for doing away with them. Before these things were required in the US we had 50,000 dead per year in car crashes. Now 30+ years since they started going into effect almost everyone wears a seat belt without even thinking about it. Car crash deaths are down to the low 40,000s even with twice as many cars on the road. You can't buy a car without airbags, even though a few problems have killed people. I don't hear a big political clamoring to do away with airbags. I don't know any case of a face mask causing a death, yet it's a huge problem to wear one?



If proper public health measures were taken when this pandemic was in its early stages in the US during the first lock down there would have been no need for a second. The solution was not that hard and would have greatly limited both the health and economic impacts. Our military has the ability to deal with biological and chemical warfare. Their tools for dealing with this when combined with contact tracing and forced isolation could have greatly reduced the impact of this virus. Here in Florida during the first lock down we had tens of thousands of hotel rooms sitting empty which could have been been used to isolate people who had contracted the virus but did not need hospitalization. The National Guard in their biological warfare gear procedures could have delivered them food and essential care items without endangering themselves or others. Now that the problem is out of control I believe that another even more severe lock down is in order to reduce the size of the problem to a manageable level then implementing a strict contact tracing and isolation protocol until a vaccine has been widely distributed.



Interestingly, in my personal experience as related in my previous post, with the exception of the first person to catch it in early march, everyone who has caught it was of the US political persuasion that is in denial about the virus, including the dead one.

[Dockhead]

Originally Posted by pcmm

Unfortunately from the outside looking in, the U.S. appears to not have taken this issue seriously.. it appears. To almost be “business as usual” and 100,000 new cases per day doesn’t even seem to concern those in power. It looks be interesting to see if there is a change in approach (and by how much) with the new administration.

We'll see, but the main responsibility for pandemic response lies with the states, according to the U.S. system of government, not the central government, so not clear what the new president will be able to do which is all that revolutionary.

There has been a considerable mix of different approaches in the different states, including a lot of really severe measures in many states. The politicization of the pandemic in the U.S. is really deplorable, but I'm not sure it's clear that the actual policies were all wrong. Maybe they were started late? Or maybe the nature of the way Americans live make it inherently hard to control. I don't think we really know.

So it's hard to say what went wrong, if anything. In some countries the pandemic has been very difficult to bring under any kind of control. Look at France -- it's worse right now than in the U.S. Do you think the French "aren't taking it seriously"? The French with their highly centralized government, and superb health care system? I don't think you can say that, either there, or there.

[Dockhead]

Originally Posted by Captain Bill

Masks have been shown to be very effective, so I don't understand the politicization of wearing them. It's kind of like seat belts and airbag laws. Both limit your personal freedom, yet I haven't seen any political party making a case for doing away with them. Before these things were required in the US we had 50,000 dead per year in car crashes. Now 30+ years since they started going into effect almost everyone wears a seat belt without even thinking about it. Car crash deaths are down to the low 40,000s even with twice as many cars on the road. You can't buy a car without airbags, even though a few problems have killed people. I don't hear a big political clamoring to do away with airbags. I don't know any case of a face mask causing a death, yet it's a huge problem to wear one?

I think the costs of wearing masks are not all that trivial -- can affect the health of people with breathing problems, severely inhibits communication.


However, compared to unemployment and so forth resulting from many other measures, masking is relatively affordable. I don't know how much scientific proof there is of its effectiveness -- I think scientific opinions differ -- but all in all I think masking is a good idea, and I certainly wear mine even in situations where it's not required.

Originally Posted by Captain Bill

. . . If proper public health measures were taken when this pandemic was in its early stages in the US during the first lock down there would have been no need for a second.

We do not know that. Perhaps restricting travel instantly in January or February, and going all in for contract tracing like the South Koreans did, might have done the trick. Maybe. Maybe an instant lockdown before community spread started would have done it. But we really don't know for sure -- every country is different. Many countries to this day have not been able to get contact tracing up to speed, now 10 months into it.

Originally Posted by Captain Bill

. . . The solution was not that hard and would have greatly limited both the health and economic impacts. Our military has the ability to deal with biological and chemical warfare. Their tools for dealing with this when combined with contact tracing and forced isolation could have greatly reduced the impact of this virus. Here in Florida during the first lock down we had tens of thousands of hotel rooms sitting empty which could have been been used to isolate people who had contracted the virus but did not need hospitalization. The National Guard in their biological warfare gear procedures could have delivered them food and essential care items without endangering themselves or others. Now that the problem is out of control I believe that another even more severe lock down is in order to reduce the size of the problem to a manageable level then implementing a strict contact tracing and isolation protocol until a vaccine has been widely distributed.

It sounds good in theory but I don't know any real epidemiologist who has written that "the solution is not hard". Some of these things are really hard to implement, especially in a country of 330 million people with 50 separate state governments.



Nor is it clear that a second lockdown will do much good now that community spread is so intense already. The World Health Organization is discouraging the use of lockdowns except as a last resort.

Originally Posted by Captain Bill

. . . Interestingly, in my personal experience as related in my previous post, with the exception of the first person to catch it in early march, everyone who has caught it was of the US political persuasion that is in denial about the virus, including the dead one.

Let's just keep that politicization of the pandemic going! It's REALLY helpful!

[sailorboy1]

Originally Posted by Captain Bill

Masks have been shown to be very effective, .........

Have they? Can you link a source to prove it? We have been wearing masks for 7 months, have the rates dropped?

I wear my mask and try to control personal distance. But so far i have not seen numbers to support that is doing anything.

We have to face it. Corvid 19 isnt going away any more than the Flu has and we have a vaccine for the Flu.

And i dont want to hear any stories of govt not doing enough. If you have gone out in public don't blame your lack of personal responsibility on others!