U.S. to close..

[Wotname]

Originally Posted by SalingSue

Sure





https://data.pa.gov/Government-Effic...artm/mcba-yywm

Also the Jan 1 birthdays at Dennis must get crazzzzyy!
Can you imagine the sound of that many 100+yr olds eating jello without their teeth?


If that’s legit, we need to bottle the water they drink and sell it for like $10,000 a bottle, they must have found the fountain of youth over there.

Just for a moment, let's assume this data correctly identifies fraudulent voters.

For whom did they vote for?

A. Was it all one side; if so, which side.
B. 50/50.
C. Dunno.

Hint - likely C would be most correct answer.

[Lake-Effect]

Originally Posted by Jason Flare

Can you provide evidence to support these claims?

... seriously? I have to prove that those AREN'T necessarily bona fide and conclusive evidence of deliberate vote fraud ?

Oh well, this CF, not a congressional hearing. Let's take a whack at it:

1. I was in software. Many, many systems have lazy handling of missing or invalid entries. A default date of Jan 1, 1800 totally smells like that. Might even be a deliberate flag, because no competent person (or system) is going to see Jan 1, 1800 and accept it as the legit birthday of a living person.
2. Just a handful of implausible dates from a huge data table is much more likely to be entry error. Statistics, and Hanlon's Razor - never attribute to malice, etc
3. Where's the proof that these records resulted in ballots that were filled out, returned and counted? For all we know these could be records that were rejected when it comes to ballot issue.

There ya go. But I do love that this question demonstrates the point of all the post-election litigating. It's a bit more than a Hail Mary; if any fraud of a non-ridiculously-tiny amount - say 300 or 400 in a state, or a thousand or two nationwide - was found, every effort would be made to Trump it up into a public perception of questionable doings... and then state Republican administrations would have enough political cover to toss out the vote and send Trump votes to the college.

So, in truth, Americans should fear fraud about election fraud more than actual election fraud. Kafka-esque, isn't it?

[GordMay]

Originally Posted by SalingSue

... we have had quite a few 120-170 year olds vote, tons of “glitches” where one side won than another side, so it’s just a fact that there are shenanigans, we shall see by December ...

I know you’re not into providing evidence, for your hyperbolic psychobabble, but I have to wonder about the source of some of your preposterous ideas. Where do you get your misinformation?

Originally Posted by SalingSue

... I see my name, pointed to it, and she handed my a ballot, I could have pointed to any name, I probably could have walked out to my car, changed my coat and walked back in and pointed to a different name ...

That would have been a bad idea, and not very advantageous to your cause.

You might want to read my post #796 ➥ https://www.cruisersforum.com/forums...ml#post3279874
which includes:

“... There have been a handful of substantiated cases of individual ineligible voters attempting to defraud the election system. But by any measure, voter fraud is extraordinarily rare.In part, this is because fraud by individual voters is a singularly foolish and ineffective way to attempt to win an election.

Each act of voter fraud in connection with a federal election risks five years in prison and a $10,000 fine, in addition to any state penalties.

In return, it yields at most one incremental vote. That single extra vote is simply not worth the price. Instead, much evidence that purports to reveal voter fraud can be traced to causes far more logical than fraud by voters. Below, this paper reviews the more common ways in which more benign errors or inconsistencies may be mistaken for voter fraud ...”
➥ https://www.brennancenter.org/sites/...er%20Fraud.pdf


I think I'd vote the NSA for president...
... because at least they'll listen to the voters, even after the election.

[Jason Flare]

Originally Posted by Lake-Effect

... seriously? I have to prove that those AREN'T necessarily bona fide and conclusive evidence of deliberate vote fraud ?

Oh well, this CF, not a congressional hearing. Let's take a whack at it:

1. I was in software. Many, many systems have lazy handling of missing or invalid entries. A default date of Jan 1, 1800 totally smells like that. Might even be a deliberate flag, because no competent person (or system) is going to see Jan 1, 1800 and accept it as the legit birthday of a living person.
2. Just a handful of implausible dates from a huge data table is much more likely to be entry error. Statistics, and Hanlon's Razor - never attribute to malice, etc
3. Where's the proof that these records resulted in ballots that were filled out, returned and counted? For all we know these could be records that were rejected when it comes to ballot issue.

There ya go. But I do love that this question demonstrates the point of all the post-election litigating. It's a bit more than a Hail Mary; if any fraud of a non-ridiculously-tiny amount - say 300 or 400 in a state, or a thousand or two nationwide - was found, every effort would be made to Trump it up into a public perception of questionable doings... and then state Republican administrations would have enough political cover to toss out the vote and send Trump votes to the college.

So, in truth, Americans should fear fraud about election fraud more than actual election fraud. Kafka-esque, isn't it?

So, you have no real proof and you’re speculating.

[Lake-Effect]

Originally Posted by Jason Flare

So, you have no real proof and you’re speculating.

Thank you for proving my point.

[Singularity]

Originally Posted by Jason Flare

So, you have no real proof and you’re speculating.

TLDR; it's practically impossible to cook the books without a computer being to detect it; the associate maths/statistics is harder than rocket science; there's enough money on the line that the people who know how to do the computer work would do it if it'd yield anything. But here simply the losing party would lose that analysis, and has a 1 in a much better chance of ~winning through the lawyers or buying people out/intimidation/whatever. [edit for conspiracy folks: such an analysis might reveal losing party stuffing activity thus no interest in conducting it]

-What should the normal expected error be?
-How can you tell if the results are fraudulent?
---------------
Previous studies here and here suggest that the modern error rate would be less than 0.001 to as high as 0.59% or 1.8% if hand-counted. Pennsylvania's total vote count for top 3 presidential candidates = 6,907,520
6,907,520 x
.0018 = 124,335
0.0059 = 40,754
0.001= 6,907
From Associated Press: " One tweet that repeated the false claim stated: “These are some of the people who voted in #PA...840 were 101 years old or older...."
Multiways to see this, but .00012 error rate, particularly with the same birthdays in the cited samples isn't crazy.
-----------
There are a multitude of ways to use some quite sophisticated/freakish statistical analysis to exam distributions of any data looking for irregularities. This study is but a simplistic method of looking at ballot data, seeing ballot stuffing in Russia and Uganda.
Statistical detection of systematic election irregularities
Peter Klimek, et al
https://www.pnas.org/content/109/41/16469

[SalingSue]

Originally Posted by Wotname

Just for a moment, let's assume this data correctly identifies fraudulent voters.

For whom did they vote for?

A. Was it all one side; if so, which side.
B. 50/50.
C. Dunno.

Hint - likely C would be most correct answer.

Who cares who they voted for, they shouldn’t have been allowed to vote.

Go try to buy a gun in that same state without giving a birthdate, or claiming to be 120+ years old with no ID lol

[SalingSue]

Originally Posted by Lake-Effect

You've just shown us... likely data entry errors. And a wierd default value for missing DOB. Nothing more.

Data errors.

I’ll try that next time I’m pulled over for speeding, get busted doing 90 in a 35, “officer that is just a data error, I’ll be on my way now, quit being paranoid” lol

Or maybe I’ll try it with the IRS, “I see how you’re concerned with me not paying taxes, that’s just a error or fluke, completely normal, thank you for the follow up, bye.”

Or carrying a pistol in NYC without a permission slip “officer that’s just a fluke, have a good day”


The lack of care, the normalization of these things, just reaffirms how voting means little to nothing, that’s not where the people’s power comes from.

[GordMay]

Originally Posted by Lake-Effect

... Show me proof of significant US voter fraud (voter impersonation, actual ballot shenanigans, whatever), and what races were distorted by it, and I'll stand by your side on the subject of voter ID. We all can see where the post-election shenanigans are currently coming from.

Originally Posted by SalingSue

Sure
https://data.pa.gov/Government-Effic...artm/mcba-yywm

“The Truth About Voter Fraud” ~ by Justin Levitt
Here ➥ https://www.brennancenter.org/sites/...er%20Fraud.pdf

Beginning on page 6 (of 47), Justin Levitt discusses, in detail, how much evidence that purports to reveal voter fraud, can be traced to causes far more logical than fraud by voters.
His paper reviews the more common ways, in which more benign errors or inconsistencies may be mistaken for voter fraud.

Clerical or Typographical Errors, including:
Errors in the poll books
Errors in registration records

Bad “Matching”, including:
Errors in the underlying data
Partial matches
The “birthdate” problem

Jumping to Conclusions, including:
Dual registration
Death records
Criminal records
Returned mail
Unusual addresses
Records compiled for a different purpose

Voter Mistakes

And goes on to discuss:
Allegations of Double Voting
Allegations of Dead Voters
Allegations of Fraudulent Addresses
Allegations of Voter Fraud by Persons with Felony Convictions
Allegations of Voter Fraud by Noncitizens
Allegations of Registration Fraud
Allegations of Voter Fraud by Dogs ☜ my favorite
Allegations of Vote-Buying
Allegations of Fraud by Election Officials

Selected Case Studies
Allegations of widespread fraud by malevolent voters are easy to make, but often prove to be inaccurate. The Brennan Center has analyzed public materials in some of the areas branded as notorious election fraud “hot spots,” finding that various election irregularities led to inflated claims of widespread fraud.

[Lake-Effect]

Originally Posted by SalingSue

Data errors.

I’ll try that next time I’m pulled over for speeding, get busted doing 90 in a 35, “officer that is just a data error, I’ll be on my way now, quit being paranoid” lol

If the speedgun says 240, or 2... data error. Wouldn't make it to court. (thousands of tickets are thrown out for typos or speedgun errors)

Or maybe I’ll try it with the IRS, “I see how you’re concerned with me not paying taxes, that’s just a error or fluke, completely normal, thank you for the follow up, bye.”

Or carrying a pistol in NYC without a permission slip “officer that’s just a fluke, have a good day”

Sorry, need a little rest? These are nonsensical.

btw you haven't yet shown that those records resulted in ballots or votes. Or that they weren't investigated, or weren't tossed if they did. Or that there's anywhere enough of these quirks to have affected any race. We'll wait; boat's on the hard for 5 months.

The lack of care, the normalization of these things, just reaffirms how voting means little to nothing, that’s not where the people’s power comes from.

Thanks to you also, for demonstrating how eager some are to try to take ANY miles-from-plausible shred of nothing and try to roll it wide enough to make something visible. Wanna deal on some hanging chads?

I initially thought you had some integrity with your clear-eyed and intelligent defense of rights... now you're sounding like just another trumpster. Sorry for your loss. Grieving is hard.

[SalingSue]

Originally Posted by Lake-Effect

If the speedgun says 240, or 2... data error. Wouldn't make it to court. (thousands of tickets are thrown out for typos or speedgun errors)
Sorry, need a little rest? These are nonsensical.

btw you haven't yet shown that those records resulted in ballots or votes. Or that they weren't investigated, or weren't tossed if they did. Or that there's anywhere enough of these quirks to have affected any race. We'll wait; boat's on the hard for 5 months.
Thanks to you also, for demonstrating how eager some are to try to take ANY miles-from-plausible shred of nothing and try to roll it wide enough to make something visible. Wanna deal on some hanging chads?

I initially thought you had some integrity with your clear-eyed and intelligent defense of rights... now you're sounding like just another trumpster. Sorry for your loss. Grieving is hard.

It’s just odd how large a birth we give all the nonsense with voting and gov overreach, but how razor tight we regulate citizens, I mean even if one party stood up and said “yeah I rigged the election” no one would care, or it would be “fact checked” or just scrubbed from the interwebz. Frankly I think trump was better than biden/Harris, but that’s a low bar, I don’t own a single maga piece of swag, and he was a let down on many areas, at this point if my life, I think post mid 90s the gov has gone so far off the rails, grown so big and become so self serving, the only answer is just always push for for less gov in all things and less tax in all things, everything they touch turns to crap. The reaction to this virus included.


Same reason every time someone’s solution to a existing problem is to get the government involved, I just picture a fireman trying to put out a fire shooting diesel at it lol

Big gov has become the religion of the new age bourgeoisie

[Lake-Effect]

Originally Posted by SalingSue

It’s just odd how large a birth we give all the nonsense with voting and gov overreach, but how razor tight we regulate citizens, I mean even if one party stood up and said “yeah I rigged the election” no one would care, or it would be “fact checked” or just scrubbed from the interwebz.

Don't lump those together. The ONLY actual election nonsense has been emanating nonstop for months from the Trump campaign. This assessment coming from Republican election officials. But apparently, who cares?

Government overreach - different subject.

Big gov has become the religion of the new age bourgeoisie

Ok, but is it wise to replace one religion with another?

[Thumbs Up]

I got censored for stating my opinion here. But since you guys are still talking about politics and this thread is open I would like to ask one question about the US presumptive president elect: What is going on with the photos of his attached/detached earlobes depending on which photos that you look at? What is all of your opinions of this phenomena?

[Lake-Effect]

Originally Posted by Thumbs Up

I got censored for stating my opinion here.

You got censored for a cowardly personal attack. But sure, let's do earlobes.

[SalingSue]

Originally Posted by Lake-Effect

l
Ok, but is it wise to replace one religion with another?

Does it matter? Destroy a life because it offended the church, or the crown, or the “state”, it’s the same thing.

The important part is to see it for what it is, to hopefully learn from history and hopefully avoid at least a few of the same pot holes on the next version of the same old story.