U.S. to close..

[Copacabana]

Originally Posted by Jason Flare

Vaccine.

A timely vaccine is much less important than a safe and effective vaccine.

If this vaccine has side effects it will give the anti-vaxers enough ammunition to set vaccines back 75 years.

Be careful what you wish for in a timely vaccine.

There are always side effects. I would imagine many will have sore arms and fevers for a few days. I can live with that. What we have to consider is, what are the risks we face if we don't vaccinate? If we use the 1% Covid fatality rate people are throwing around here, and the vaccine has a 0.001% chance of causing harm, which would you prefer? I'll take my chances with the vaccine so I can get back to normal and travel again. Besides, I fear my local pub will go out of business if we don't come together on the vaccine thing...

[Jason Flare]

Originally Posted by Copacabana

There are always side effects. I would imagine many will have sore arms and fevers for a few days. I can live with that. What we have to consider is, what are the risks we face if we don't vaccinate? If we use the 1% Covid fatality rate people are throwing around here, and the vaccine has a 0.001% chance of causing harm, which would you prefer? I'll take my chances with the vaccine so I can get back to normal and travel again. Besides, I fear my local pub will go out of business if we don't come together on the vaccine thing...

I should have said, “Serious side effects.”

[Copacabana]

Originally Posted by Jason Flare

I should have said, “Serious side effects.”

None so far and many, many 10s of thousands have taken the vaccine in trials around the world. Every country has to approve any vaccine with their national "FDA" and they all seem to be approving vaccines for general use. Brazil is finalizing approvals for the Chinese vaccine made by Sinovac, which will be given to the population of the state of São Paulo in early 2021. I can't wait...

I find it hard to believe that the many regulatory agencies around the world responsible for approving vaccines are all incompetent or complicit in some conspiracy to harm their populations. Again, do you want to take your chances with the virus (which is infecting more than 1 million Americans a week- won't take long to get to you) or with an approved vaccine, tested and proven effective?

[generein]

"Swiss cheese model of pandemic defense"
This is an oft-cited model of risk mitigation in Airlines and professional aviation. Original paper written by a man named Reason.
Since we are talking about not infallible humans and systems that were designed by humans, having zero errors is impossible. Using the layered approach to minimizing errors and capturing and correcting the ones committed has gone a long way towards reducing aviation, medical and maritime accidents.
It is a great model to help assess and address risk vectors in all parts of your life. Applies well to COVID. Works when teaching teenagers to drive too!

[Mike OReilly]

Originally Posted by Jason Flare

All the things we did to take responsibility for ourselves and protect ourselves protected other people.

Apparently not.

[Lake-Effect]

Originally Posted by valhalla360

The fact that you can't list one tells me you still have the TDS blinders on, so not much point having you use your TDS to try can cut down any positives.

I never offered to. It's your case to make. Have you suddenly realized how thin a case it is?

But just for fun...how about overseeing a program that got a viable vaccine out that would normally take 10yrs in 10 months (let's see the spin you come back with).

You've been spinning so hard that I question your ability to spot it elsewhere. Any honest appraisal would look like the opposite spin to you. For starters... no it doesn't necessarily take 10 years to produce, test and approve a safe vaccine.

But yes, let's praise something that worked - Operation Warp Speed. That came from his administration, it has been instrumental in helping speed the vaccine development process, and as head of this US administration, he's entitled to take credit for it.

From another source:

"No doubt, Operation Warp Speed is a huge success," said Tinglong Dai, associate professor of Operations Management and Business Analytics at Johns Hopkins University Carey Business School in Baltimore.

"You can like or hate the Trump administration, but no doubt, it's a huge success — unprecedented success."

Jesse Goodman, the former chief scientist of the U.S. Food and Drug Administration, agreed that the U.S. government deserves credit for the high priority placed on Operation Warp Speed.

... "Without OWS, there would be no Moderna vaccine. Period," Dai said.

... Walter Orenstein, a former director of the U.S. Immunization Program and former deputy director for immunization programs at the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, said Operation Warp Speed has played a major role by guaranteeing a market to Pfizer so it can begin developing its procedures for distribution.

But it wasn't the only program. The WHO, who have always championed and led vaccine development efforts globally, launched their ACT Accelerator in April. And COVAX, which the US refused to join (...because WHO, the official US scapegoat). Of course China heavily funded and prioritized their own vaccine programs, apparently achieving the same timeline as OWS, and Russia's vaccine is already out of the chute. Neither of these are mRNA types, and they don't have the storage/shipping cold temperature requirements. They will also be way cheaper per dose. You can guess whose vaccines will be purchased for developing and equatorial countries.

Let's all pause to acknowledge that vaccine development seems to be one of the bright spots in the pandemic response. We all certainly hope that all vaccines will live up to expectations.

[valhalla360]

Originally Posted by Copacabana

Valhalla, while not trying to diminish this (perhaps only) Trump accomplishment, other countries have also managed to come up with vaccines in the same time frame. The challenge now will be how these vaccines are distributed. I fear the US will not do as well as countries with national health care systems (like Canada, Europe, New Zealand and even Brazil) that have a system already in place for national vaccine programs. Just imagine the national database you need to keep track of who gets vaccines, not to mention coordinating the distribution and control of vaccines.

A classic TDS response...
- You claim not to be trying to diminish it...but then immediately proceed to do just that in multiple ways.
- Most countries have not come up with vaccines. The US was a major player if not THE major player but must hate anything remotely related to Trump.
- You claim failure on something that hasn't even started yet as if it's a preordained fact. That's nice that some countries have databases of who already has vaccines and you could argue that in the long run it's a benefit...but really, I doubt people are going to try and scam to get vaccinated 10 times, so until we run out of people waiting to get vaccinated, it really doesn't matter much in terms of how quickly it will get rolled out. By the time we get to that last 5-10%, herd immunity will have taken over and it won't matter much if we have a list of who's had it.

I fully expect there will be some hiccups in the process but I expect that for all the countries rolling out the vaccine. This is uncharted territory. But as you've shown, the media will jump on the slightest thing if they can spin it as anti-trump. I expect after mid January, we will hear stories about how it's expected to have some minor hiccups but given the difficulty or rolling out a new vaccine, things are going great...of course the media will make sure to at the least remain silent on who is responsible or it will somehow be the new administration getting credit.

[valhalla360]

Originally Posted by Lake-Effect

I never offered to.

Exactly, it's part of TDS to refuse to take off the TDS blinders.

You can show a blindfolded man the most beautiful picture but they will shrug and say so what.

[Jason Flare]

Originally Posted by Mike OReilly

Apparently not.

You’re trolling.

We have not transmitted the virus to any of our customers because we took steps to protect ourselves, therefore we had no virus to transmit.

[Lake-Effect]

Originally Posted by valhalla360

Exactly, it's part of TDS to refuse to take off the TDS blinders.

You can show a blindfolded man the most beautiful picture but they will shrug and say so what.

No, apparently you can't or won't show ANY man the beautiful picture. But spin on, it's great for cardio. And you've conveniently ignored the rest of that post. You have a bag on with earplugs, never mind blinders.

[Copacabana]

Originally Posted by valhalla360

A classic TDS response...
- You claim not to be trying to diminish it...but then immediately proceed to do just that in multiple ways.
- Most countries have not come up with vaccines. The US was a major player if not THE major player but must hate anything remotely related to Trump.
- You claim failure on something that hasn't even started yet as if it's a preordained fact. That's nice that some countries have databases of who already has vaccines and you could argue that in the long run it's a benefit...but really, I doubt people are going to try and scam to get vaccinated 10 times, so until we run out of people waiting to get vaccinated, it really doesn't matter much in terms of how quickly it will get rolled out. By the time we get to that last 5-10%, herd immunity will have taken over and it won't matter much if we have a list of who's had it.

I fully expect there will be some hiccups in the process but I expect that for all the countries rolling out the vaccine. This is uncharted territory. But as you've shown, the media will jump on the slightest thing if they can spin it as anti-trump. I expect after mid January, we will hear stories about how it's expected to have some minor hiccups but given the difficulty or rolling out a new vaccine, things are going great...of course the media will make sure to at the least remain silent on who is responsible or it will somehow be the new administration getting credit.

I have no idea what a TDS response is ... Tabular Data Stream? Totally Depressed Snake?

I agree, most countries haven't come out with a vaccination. All I was saying is that others have. Accept it. I'm not diminishing the accomplishment. Warp Speed is admirable.

I'm not claiming the US will fail. I'm simply suggesting that countries with centralized national health care systems are better equipped for the logistics of carrying out this task. The US has a decentralized health care system that will have to find a way to work together and share data in this mammoth task. Not a criticism, just a fact.

I honestly don't believe people will try to scam the system to get vaccinated 10 times. Personally, I plan on lining up just the once.

It's not really "uncharted territory" for many countries (like Brazil) that have a national vaccination system under the national health care system. The infrastructure is already in place to handle the task.

Out of curiosity, are you going to take the vaccine?

[Mike OReilly]

Originally Posted by Jason Flare

You’re trolling.

We have not transmitted the virus to any of our customers because we took steps to protect ourselves, therefore we had no virus to transmit.

Strike one...

I wasn't talking about you. Good on you. It sounds like you and yours have behaved responsibly. But were discussion the broader question of efficacy or necessity of official mandates, not what you did.

[Thumbs Up]

Originally Posted by GordMay

“CDC issues new guidance for "universal mask wearing" in all activity outside of home”
➥ https://www.cbsnews.com/news/cdc-gui...tag=MSF0951a18

"universal mask wearing" in all activity outside of one's home.

masks should be worn for all indoor activity outside of an individual's home

all outdoor activity when at least 6 feet of social distancing can't be maintained.

The same article contradicts itself. They are leading people to believe that they need the mask when they are out doors exercising or doing yard work or alone in a car with the windows rolled up and inside any building that is not home even with no people around.
I wear a mask only to go inside a business. I can't breathe as well with a mask. It makes feel like I am not getting enough oxygen. It fogs up my glasses. I know enough to apply common sense and remove the mask when I get outside, yet I see lots and lots of people zooming around alone in their cars or walking alone with a mask on. Biden says that his first act of presidency will be to mandate an extra 100 days of mask wearing.

[Jason Flare]

Originally Posted by Copacabana

None so far and many, many 10s of thousands have taken the vaccine in trials around the world. Every country has to approve any vaccine with their national "FDA" and they all seem to be approving vaccines for general use. Brazil is finalizing approvals for the Chinese vaccine made by Sinovac, which will be given to the population of the state of São Paulo in early 2021. I can't wait...

I find it hard to believe that the many regulatory agencies around the world responsible for approving vaccines are all incompetent or complicit in some conspiracy to harm their populations. Again, do you want to take your chances with the virus (which is infecting more than 1 million Americans a week- won't take long to get to you) or with an approved vaccine, tested and proven effective?

There was a serious side effect early on. Something to do with spinal something and a trial had to be halted. I don’t know how all that turned out. From what I’ve seen the actual stats on the side effects or lack thereof haven’t been made public.

Personally I would take my chances with the virus largely because I think the vaccine producers are in a race against herd immunity and as you pointed out with a million Americans a week getting the virus it’s a tight race.

My reason to not engage in risky behavior and purposely get the virus is I do not want to transmit it to others once I’m contagious and not aware I have it.

I’m less worried about this particular natural virus than I am a vaccine . And yes, I am old enough to be in a higher risk group.

At any rate, most people here, Mike O’Reilly and TrentePieds to name two I can recall offhand, have said that they would prefer others take the vaccine first, and I agree with them.

So, for me I’ll see who wins the race. Will I get covid before I take a vaccine I trust?

We’ll see.

All of this is to repeat, If there are serious side effect it will set trust in vaccines back 75 years.

[Lake-Effect]

A very recent (... today) overview of the vaccine development effort. Truly remarkable. Imagine if this level of cooperation and effort was put into every global issue.