US / Canada border restrictions predictions...

[rbk]

Originally Posted by Time2Go

And there you have it, just the US
175,000 dead, no worries
5,000,000 infected , no worries

Just to provide some perspective on your numbers...
Global deaths 2017: 56 million

2017 US Stats
Heart disease: 647,457
Cancer: 599,108
Accidents (unintentional injuries): 169,936
Chronic lower respiratory diseases: 160,201
Stroke (cerebrovascular diseases): 146,383
Alzheimer’s disease: 121,404
Diabetes: 83,564
Influenza and Pneumonia: 55,672*
Nephritis, nephrotic syndrome and nephrosis: 50,633
Intentional self-harm (suicide): 47,173

*Influenza inoculation makes any comparison between COVID and the flu a moot point.

Sad part is that the three leading causes of death are the most preventable (leading cancer deaths are attributed to Lung cancer). The two leading conditions and a bunch more on the above list also appear to be significant factors in the severity of COVID related symptoms and a higher mortality rate. If we as a society lead healthier lifestyles and didn't rely on healthcare to sustain our unhealthy lifestyle perpetually with chronic disease management our healthcare system would cost less, be more effective and COVID would have a significantly less impact as a whole.

[rbk]

One more set of preventable deaths that has yet to materialize and if (when) it does happen will be one of those duh moments...Every major box store and others that have remained open or reopened during this pandemic have created a maze of restricted lineups winding their way towards the cashiers. To maximize profits through targeted product placement stores have placed vast quantities of highly flammable alcohol based hand sanitizer at all major exits. Next time you're out standing in line at one of these stores, ask yourself how safe you'd feel if there was a major fire and you had to run the maze gauntlet to get out. In these panicked times common sense has been completely disregarded in order to appease the masses.

[Tetepare]

Not for nothing Mike, Canadian authorities already have full access to my address, legal and driving records, and global US passport use. LinkedIn info on work and volunteer history is freely available. Not much else to intrude on!

Waterways made great boundaries when we used horses. Now that boats are ubiquitous, not so much. Upstate NY has far more in common with most of Ontario than NYC. I’d prefer the border encompasses both sides of the lake and river. War of 1812 causes and activities aside, it does make sense. And we could be dining on the Kingston waterfront tonight.

Wishful or wistful thinking aside, I worry about the wonderful service providers and hosts I know. Will they disappear because of macro data? Some already have. Tin Pan Galley in Sacketts is gone, with no statistically defensible excuse.

[Joli]

Originally Posted by rbk

Just to provide some perspective on your numbers...
Global deaths 2017: 56 million

2017 US Stats
Heart disease: 647,457
Cancer: 599,108
Accidents (unintentional injuries): 169,936
Chronic lower respiratory diseases: 160,201
Stroke (cerebrovascular diseases): 146,383
Alzheimer’s disease: 121,404
Diabetes: 83,564
Influenza and Pneumonia: 55,672*
Nephritis, nephrotic syndrome and nephrosis: 50,633
Intentional self-harm (suicide): 47,173

*Influenza inoculation makes any comparison between COVID and the flu a moot point.

Sad part is that the three leading causes of death are the most preventable (leading cancer deaths are attributed to Lung cancer). The two leading conditions and a bunch more on the above list also appear to be significant factors in the severity of COVID related symptoms and a higher mortality rate. If we as a society lead healthier lifestyles and didn't rely on healthcare to sustain our unhealthy lifestyle perpetually with chronic disease management our healthcare system would cost less, be more effective and COVID would have a significantly less impact as a whole.

If you dig into the CDC numbers it's reported that covid-19 is directly responsible for 6% of the reported deaths, so about 10,000. 94% of the people who died had an average of 2.6 other comorbidities that may or may not have been the cause of death.

It's also widely reported by a number of studies that the number of infected is a magnitude higher then the official count. The US probably has as many as 60~70 million already infected with most suffering mild symptoms.

So again, the numbers don't support the economic restrictions we're living under.

[Mike OReilly]

Originally Posted by rbk

Just to provide some perspective on your numbers...
Global deaths 2017: 56 million

2017 US Stats
Heart disease: 647,457
Cancer: 599,108


....

Here's another comparison. 170,000 deaths is the same as having about 470 Boeing-747's crashing from the sky in the last eight months. Would we be right to be concerned if that happened?

[rslifkin]

Don't forget, the death rates we're seeing don't account for people who survive but end up with long-lasting complications (there are plenty of those). And these numbers are being seen while making an attempt to control this thing. Let it run wild and we'll end up with a lot of people with lasting damage and also far higher death rates (as the infection rate will go up dramatically enough that we'll run out of hospital capacity, at which point death rates both from COVID as well as other treatable conditions will rise dramatically).

[Macblaze]

Originally Posted by Joli

If you dig into the CDC numbers it's reported that covid-19 is directly responsible for 6% of the reported deaths, so about 10,000. 94% of the people who died had an average of 2.6 other comorbidities that may or may not have been the cause of death.

It's also widely reported by a number of studies that the number of infected is a magnitude higher then the official count. The US probably has as many as 60~70 million already infected with most suffering mild symptoms.

So again, the numbers don't support the economic restrictions we're living under.

Who would have thought we would be living in a world where the words "it was reported that..." would be among the most meaningless... but here we are.

[Macblaze]

Originally Posted by Mike OReilly

How else can the foreign country be sure person X, coming from a low risk area, hasn't actually traveled to a high risk area in the last 14 days?

This is supported by that map you posted somewhere the other day of the route from Alaska to Kentucky... Just think of the number of infections one party could pickup or cause if they stopped what used to be the "reasonable" number of times.

[rbk]

Originally Posted by Mike OReilly

Here's another comparison. 170,000 deaths is the same as having about 470 Boeing-747's crashing from the sky in the last eight months. Would we be right to be concerned if that happened?

No body seems too concerned about the 100,000+ dying each month from cancer or heart disease...not denying COVID is an issue, but constantly seeing people’s alarming numbers with no base comparison is misleading.

[Mike OReilly]

Originally Posted by Tetepare

Not for nothing Mike, Canadian authorities already have full access to my address, legal and driving records, and global US passport use. LinkedIn info on work and volunteer history is freely available. Not much else to intrude on!

The Canadian government does not know whether you've traveled to NYC, or Texas, or any other hot spot, before crossing from your home, low risk, area. And even if they could know, I sure as heck would not be in favour of giving this kind of information to a foreign government. Heck, I wouldn't even want my own government to know my personal travels to that level.

Originally Posted by Tetepare

Waterways made great boundaries when we used horses. Now that boats are ubiquitous, not so much. Upstate NY has far more in common with most of Ontario than NYC. I’d prefer the border encompasses both sides of the lake and river. War of 1812 causes and activities aside, it does make sense. And we could be dining on the Kingston waterfront tonight.

Agreed. North America in general has been divided up wrong. It should have been north-south instead of east-west. People in BC have far more in common with Washington and Oregon than they do with Alberta or Ontario. So too with Alberta and places like Montana and Idaho. Manitobans find greater affintiy with Dakotans or Wisconsions. And yes, Ontarians generally find more in common with New Yorkers or Ohioans.

Originally Posted by Tetepare

Wishful or wistful thinking aside, I worry about the wonderful service providers and hosts I know. Will they disappear because of macro data? Some already have. Tin Pan Galley in Sacketts is gone, with no statistically defensible excuse.

Completely agree. There is a very real, and significant cost to fighting this pandemic. This is why so many Canadians are dead-set against opening the international border too soon. Canada has done a much better job (nationally speaking) of containing and controlling the virus. But this has come at a great cost. And we've all seen how easy it is for this diesease to resurface once our guards are let down. So the last thing anyone wants is to open the border and see that as the cause of any resurgence up here.

[Mike OReilly]

Originally Posted by rbk

No body seems too concerned about the 100,000+ dying each month from cancer or heart disease...not denying COVID is an issue, but constantly seeing people’s alarming numbers with no base comparison is misleading.

That's my point. People make these silly comparisons in an effort to downplay the impact.

The point is that these deaths are new deaths. Regardless of all the semantic backflipping about comorbidity, these are new deaths due to a highly infections, and novel disease. Making comparisons to existing death rates of well-established causes misses the point entirely.

[rbk]

Originally Posted by rslifkin

Don't forget, the death rates we're seeing don't account for people who survive but end up with long-lasting complications (there are plenty of those). And these numbers are being seen while making an attempt to control this thing. Let it run wild and we'll end up with a lot of people with lasting damage and also far higher death rates (as the infection rate will go up dramatically enough that we'll run out of hospital capacity, at which point death rates both from COVID as well as other treatable conditions will rise dramatically).

Out of the 15.5 million people who have officially recovered from COVID I have yet to see mounting scientific evidence that the majority of them have developed serious long term complications as a direct result of a COVID infection. It more so appears that some individuals have a prolonged response to COVID or have a resurgence that can last several months due to a number of factors combined with some false negative test results. If you read what’s in the media all COVID survivors can expect to have Swiss cheese for lungs and chronic lung conditions for life (even though they only have 6 months of data). I think one of the biggest take always from the last 4 years and more so the last six months (not trying to give D Trump any credence here) but ‘fake news’ is a very real thing and something needs to be done about it. It is getting harder and harder to discern fact from fiction, more so when there are zero repercussions for those supplying it.

[rslifkin]

Originally Posted by rbk

Out of the 15.5 million people who have officially recovered from COVID I have yet to see mounting scientific evidence that the majority of them have developed serious long term complications as a direct result of a COVID infection. It more so appears that some individuals have a prolonged response to COVID or have a resurgence that can last several months due to a number of factors combined with some false negative test results. If you read what’s in the media all COVID survivors can expect to have Swiss cheese for lungs and chronic lung conditions for life (even though they only have 6 months of data). I think one of the biggest take always from the last 4 years and more so the last six months (not trying to give D Trump any credence here) but ‘fake news’ is a very real thing and something needs to be done about it. It is getting harder and harder to discern fact from fiction, more so when there are zero repercussions for those supplying it.

That's why I specifically avoided giving any numbers. We know enough to know that it's a concern, but I haven't seen any data that really gives a good picture of just what the potential issues are, how likely they are, etc. So at the moment I'm treating it as safer to worry a bit extra now and back off later with better data. The worst-case outcome of that is a lot better than not worrying and finding out too-late that we've got a big problem.

[Tetepare]

Originally Posted by Mike OReilly

The Canadian government does not know whether you've traveled to NYC, or Texas, or any other hot spot, before crossing from your home, low risk, area.

I think you just don’t want me dining in Kingston. Perhaps it’s a conspiracy to keep American cruisers out of the islands during high season.

If we closed off the NYS border, walled off NYC, Buffalo, Rochester, and Syracuse, then can I come?

[Joli]

Originally Posted by Macblaze

Who would have thought we would be living in a world where the words "it was reported that..." would be among the most meaningless... but here we are.

There are multiple studies reporting order of magnitude asymptomatic infections. Below is one if the early ones.

NYC is probably near herd immunity today per one recent study. You can search for it if you like.


https://www.wsj.com/articles/is-the-coronavirus-as-deadly-as-they-say-11585088464