US / Canada border restrictions predictions...

[Macblaze]

Originally Posted by Joli

There are multiple studies reporting order of magnitude asymptomatic infections. Below is one if the early ones.

NYC is probably near herd immunity today per one recent study. You can search for it if you like.


https://www.wsj.com/articles/is-the-...ay-11585088464

Sorry. Can't read more than the first few paragraphs but...

Current estimates about the Covid-19 fatality rate may be too high by orders of magnitude.

projections of the death toll could plausibly be orders of magnitude too high.

The number of things that "could plausibly be" true are legion. I am in no way discounting the ideas or ignoring the conclusions that one could draw from various reports, but I see no need to take risks that can be easily avoided since the actual facts are few and far between. It's highly infectious, it can be deadly. For me, these are enough to warrant caution and engender a healthy scepticism of anyone couching their conclusions in "may" or "could" or "might." Even more so for those who chose to just blatantly state as fact that which is opinion or inference.

[Mike OReilly]

Originally Posted by Tetepare

I think you just don’t want me dining in Kingston. Perhaps it’s a conspiracy to keep American cruisers out of the islands during high season.

You can come -- but no one else .

Originally Posted by Tetepare

If we closed off the NYS border, walled off NYC, Buffalo, Rochester, and Syracuse, then can I come?

Maybe we can all secede from Canada and the USA and form our own new Covid Country. Personally, if this continues into next season I'm going to be pulling some family strings in Newfoundland. I'm related to 1/2 of St. John's. Surely someone will take me in .

To be slightly serious, I don't think anyone should downplay the cost of both the disease, as well as the so-called cure. At some point we have to find a way to live with this virus, just like we live with others. Hopefully it will be when some level of herd immunity has kicked in, along with an effective vaccine. But it may mean a whole new normal around social interactions and travel. We just don't know right now.

[rbk]

Originally Posted by Mike OReilly

That's my point. People make these silly comparisons in an effort to downplay the impact.

The point is that these deaths are new deaths. Regardless of all the semantic backflipping about comorbidity, these are new deaths due to a highly infections, and novel disease. Making comparisons to existing death rates of well-established causes misses the point entirely.

All deaths are new deaths Mike lol . It is very important to compare to the overall total to 'new' deaths to give perspective. Looking at the number of deaths attributed to cancer or heart disease in an average year who can say how many of these 'new' deaths would have been accounted for in any one of the other common causes? Would they have lasted the year, month, week even if COVID was non-existent? There is a very high probability that we will see a proportional decrease in the overall numbers from other causes of death outside COVID as susceptibility to the disease has a high coloration to pre-existing and unknown underlying conditions. I wouldn't be surprised if the overall deaths for 2020 will actually be lower than in previous years, but the year ain't over yet.

[Tetepare]

Originally Posted by Mike OReilly

But it may mean a whole new normal around social interactions and travel. We just don't know right now.

Some people’s new normal isn’t far off from old normal. We are boating and outdoors as normal. I wouldn’t know if malls, movie theaters, or plays are open or closed. Stella was in short supply for a while, but Labatts has always been available. A cold rainy summer would have had greater impact on my family and friends. That said, we’ve already been told that all of NYS is going to be paying additional taxes.

[svhydra]

my view is that the u.s. economy will be so stressed that the americans at one point will unilaterally open on thier side of the border while canada remains closed. the northern tier states would want this as well as the sunbelt states that cater to snobirds. returning canadians who choose to travel south will quarentine for two weeks on returning. no matter what happens remember, regardless of what side of the border you live on politicians and baby diapers need to be changed for the exact same reasons

[LakeSuperior]

Originally Posted by rbk

Just to provide some perspective on your numbers...
Global deaths 2017: 56 million

2017 US Stats
Heart disease: 647,457
Cancer: 599,108
Accidents (unintentional injuries): 169,936
Chronic lower respiratory diseases: 160,201
Stroke (cerebrovascular diseases): 146,383
Alzheimer’s disease: 121,404
Diabetes: 83,564
Influenza and Pneumonia: 55,672*
Nephritis, nephrotic syndrome and nephrosis: 50,633
Intentional self-harm (suicide): 47,173

*Influenza inoculation makes any comparison between COVID and the flu a moot point.

Sad part is that the three leading causes of death are the most preventable (leading cancer deaths are attributed to Lung cancer). The two leading conditions and a bunch more on the above list also appear to be significant factors in the severity of COVID related symptoms and a higher mortality rate. If we as a society lead healthier lifestyles and didn't rely on healthcare to sustain our unhealthy lifestyle perpetually with chronic disease management our healthcare system would cost less, be more effective and COVID would have a significantly less impact as a whole.

Your post fired a couple neurons...

Sounds like you may want people to be healthy til the very last second and then drop dead.

Begs the question(s) do healthy people die cheaper than unhealthy people? or do healthy people drop dead faster than unhealthy people?

By this logic consider if only healthy people were on welfare. They would be on welfare longer. Wouldn't the cost to society increase?

Do you want to regulate lifestyles to minimize healthcare collective costs? For example, we could let the people paying for insurance and therefore tied together by insurance (healthcare costs) determine lifestyle choices. You can choose vegan or vegetarian...

Would healthy folks spend more time in assisted living or nursing homes toward the end?

Do you want to force quarantine on all to absolutely minimize death rates by COVID without considering the impact on a brick wall stop to the economy?

I guess I'm somewhat puzzled by the conclusions in your last paragraph.

[nwdiver]

Originally Posted by hpeer

To back up the above suggestions about data granularity here are the official NY STATE statistics.

https://covid19tracker.health.ny.gov...r=no&%3Atabs=n

It’s not bad to see that this was a NY CITY event.

Mike,

We have had discussions about granularity before. I wanted to point out that for the EU, with a population roughly equivalent (440) to the USA (350), we look at individual countries.

It’s rather weird to compare say Sweden to the USA, 10 million vs. 350.
But it is very appropriate to compare Sweden say NJ, 10 million vs 9 million.

It is indeed more granular to look at things on a county level. But when you do you find stark differences.

Newfoundland has a death rate of 6/million, not the roughly 400/million of canada in general. St Johns and Toronto are not equivalents. They, the Atlantic bubble, is surely looking at local variations.

Canada is running about 250 per million, and I would not use Sweden as any example of how the EU is doing......the Sweds can’t travel in the EU, much like, well you know....

[rbk]

Originally Posted by LakeSuperior

Your post fired a couple neurons...

Sounds like you may want people to be healthy til the very last second and then drop dead.

Begs the question(s) do healthy people die cheaper than unhealthy people? or do healthy people drop dead faster than unhealthy people?

By this logic consider if only healthy people were on welfare. They would be on welfare longer. Wouldn't the cost to society increase?

Do you want to regulate lifestyles to minimize healthcare collective costs? For example, we could let the people paying for insurance and therefore tied together by insurance (healthcare costs) determine lifestyle choices. You can choose vegan or vegetarian...

Would healthy folks spend more time in assisted living or nursing homes toward the end?

Do you want to force quarantine on all to absolutely minimize death rates by COVID without considering the impact on a brick wall stop to the economy?

I guess I'm somewhat puzzled by the conclusions in your last paragraph.

No, no and no. Healthy is a subjective term, but smoking, drinking and eating double bacon cheeseburgers three times a day everyday for 40 years is an obvious unhealthy life choice. I am healthy, I eat bacon, I drink, enjoy a good cigar but all in moderation. You can't in all honesty feel all that surprised when someone you know, or are that someone, who has smoked a pack a day for 40 years is diagnosed with some sort of respiratory issue, more so when for the last 30 years everyone has known definitively that smoking leads to a whole host of issues, not if but when. Same goes for sedentary lifestyles, eating and drinking in excess, people need to realize that their actions and choices have consequences and the healthcare system is not a fall back when sh*t goes sideways. Eat a well balanced diet and exercise has been pushed by doctors, dietitians and healthcare professionals officially for over 60 years (albeit a little misguidance regarding smoking for a portion of that).

In north America the average life span has increased dramatically over the years while our overall health has actually decreased and the burden has been put on the healthcare system to maintain that. I hear lots of people wanting anyone who doesn't wear a mask or socially distance to be denied healthcare should they get COVID, should that not then apply to all the other preventable chronic conditions out there?

As for specifics to your questions:

Sounds like you may want people to be healthy til the very last second and then drop dead. Why not? We used to for millennia. Health again is a subjective term, nominal BMI, balanced diet, non-smoker, moderate drinking and regular exercise is all that is required. You don't need to run an Ironman every year or be Mr/Mrs Universe to be 'healthy'.

Begs the question(s) do healthy people die cheaper than unhealthy people? or do healthy people drop dead faster than unhealthy people?
Wouldn't healthy productive people contribute more to society as a whole? Yes healthy people do cost less over the course of time, very well documented.

By this logic consider if only healthy people were on welfare. They would be on welfare longer. Wouldn't the cost to society increase?
Would we have as many people on social assistance if they were healthy productive members of society? Either way almost all social assistance programs are fundamentally flawed in many ways that allow those who don't need it to thrive on it, which takes away from those that actually require it.

Do you want to regulate lifestyles to minimize healthcare collective costs? For example, we could let the people paying for insurance and therefore tied together by insurance (healthcare costs) determine lifestyle choices. You can choose vegan or vegetarian...
First off a vegan diet is not that healthy , and secondly it needs to be a societal change in the way the population fundamentally thinks. I have actually seen COVID doing this, many people reassessing their life choices these days, mostly for the better, but not all.

Would healthy folks spend more time in assisted living or nursing homes toward the end? Maybe, maybe they would need less time in NH being independent for longer in life. Most healthy seniors capable of independent living go rather quick at the end.

Do you want to force quarantine on all to absolutely minimize death rates by COVID without considering the impact on a brick wall stop to the economy? No, i think some, not all, of the current measures are overreaching, inadequate and misguided.

[rbk]

Originally Posted by nwdiver

Canada is running about 250 per million, and I would not use Sweden as any example of how the EU is doing......the Sweds can’t travel in the EU, much like, well you know....

But their deaths have all but stopped (for now) while everyone else's continue to climb. Only time will tell if thier D/mil will be high, average or low.

[yr2030]

Originally Posted by Rol1964

Any predictions on how long the Canada / USA border restrictions could last? I realize this is opening Pandora's Box but maybe some of you have either an "inside scoop" or a sensible idea of what we are looking at. What will it take to reintroduce cross border travel? I suspect it will take a change in political administration along with a concerted effort to control pandemic spread. Could this bring us into 2022?

It will probably be sometime around Thanksgiving. Canada has done an admirable job in keeping everyone there safe.

Yanks can't follow the laws in their own country, what makes you think they'll follow any in Canada? Look at it this way = recreational boaters are not essential.

[yr2030]

Originally Posted by nwdiver

Canada is running about 250 per million

The pop of Canada is 37 Mn
As of this morning there was only 9054 deaths in the whole country.
https://www.canada.ca/en/public-heal...ection.html#a1

The death rate is 24 per 100,000 - NOT MILLION
Where I was born, has zip-zero-nada cases and no deaths. Greenland across the straits had 13 cases of the flu and Iceland where we still go to party had 10 deaths and 2000 cases out of a population of 365,000

[pcmm]

Originally Posted by yr2030

T
The death rate is 24 per 100,000 - NOT MILLION

24 per 100,000 is basically the same as the quoted 250 per 1,000,000. you just drop a zero from both

but having said that Canada has done a much better job of handling this than the U.S. but we'll have to see what happens in the fall when the second wave comes.

Personally I don't see the borders opening up realistically until spring of 2021 earliest

[Mike OReilly]

Originally Posted by rbk

All deaths are new deaths Mike lol . It is very important to compare to the overall total to 'new' deaths to give perspective.

Agreed, but this is why a more accurate comparison is the one I gave. It's the same reason we all notice when a big plane crashes. These are new deaths. Comparing plane deaths to cancer or heart disease is interesting, but fairly meaningless. So too with Covid-19.

Originally Posted by rbk

There is a very high probability that we will see a proportional decrease in the overall numbers from other causes of death outside COVID as susceptibility to the disease has a high coloration to pre-existing and unknown underlying conditions. I wouldn't be surprised if the overall deaths for 2020 will actually be lower than in previous years, but the year ain't over yet.

I believe you are correct. My bet is that will see a decrease in deaths associated with some other causes. But so far, most attempts to quantify excess deaths are showing more, not fewer.

[rbk]

Originally Posted by Mike OReilly

Agreed, but this is why a more accurate comparison is the one I gave. It's the same reason we all notice when a big plane crashes. These are new deaths. Comparing plane deaths to cancer or heart disease is interesting, but fairly meaningless. So too with Covid-19.

I believe you are correct. My bet is that will see a decrease in deaths associated with some other causes. But so far, most attempts to quantify excess deaths are showing more, not fewer.

Yes and no, plane deaths would be more comparable to accidental deaths, cancer, HD and COVID are all 'diseases' in one form or another.

There is a natural wave pattern to this per annum mortality rate, some years more, some less but we may still see an increase in suicides or starvation for instance with the true economic cost yet to come. Economic instability can also lead to civil unrest and ignite civil and international conflicts as countries battle for resources. If we start seeing this COVID will most certainly take a back seat at least in certain parts of the world.

[kmacdonald]

Originally Posted by pcmm

24 per 100,000 is basically the same as the quoted 250 per 1,000,000. you just drop a zero from both

but having said that Canada has done a much better job of handling this than the U.S. but we'll have to see what happens in the fall when the second wave comes.

Personally I don't see the borders opening up realistically until spring of 2021 earliest

In the US, States made their own decisions on how to handle it. The demographics of each state varies as does the infection rates and therefore the appropriate response varies. Comparing one state to another is NOT an apples to apples comparison. Country to country comparison is even worse. When the population is ready for the truth it will be slowly titrated to them.