When do you think the borders will be open? (let alone back to normal)

[LargeMarge]

Instead of 'epidemic', I prefer 'this phase of this Economic Lock-Down'.

My version seems accurate compared to an influenza you need tests to determine if you are sick...

[Stu Jackson]

Originally Posted by LargeMarge

Instead of 'epidemic', I prefer 'this phase of this Economic Lock-Down'.

My version seems accurate compared to an influenza you need tests to determine if you are sick...

I'm sure "your version" will be gratefully accepted by all of those who lost loved ones to what you consider a non-existent virus.

[Mike OReilly]

Originally Posted by Nicholson58

I’ve been following this for Canada-US border. You are likely correct but with US rates falling and the US high vaccination rate this seems quite regressive. I would hope for relaxing the crazy especially for vaccinated persons. This is the beginning of the fly in fish camp season. Last year was lost. Waiting for August is the same as waiting for ice-in and another lost year. We have Canadian cruisers in Antigua Who cannot go home, second season living aboard in hurricane season.

I'm hoping for an earlier easing of travel restrictions for vaccinated folks, but I'm still not planning for anything before late summer. Of course any opening based on immunity status (vaccination or previous infection, and likely a clean test) will necessitate some sort of verification system. As we've seen with Covid-19 testing, a small but not insignificant percentage of people will likely attempt to falsify their immunity status.

Once again, the few will likely make it harder for the many.

[CruiseN]

Originally Posted by Stu Jackson

I'm sure "your version" will be gratefully accepted by all of those who lost loved ones to what you consider a non-existent virus.

We are over populated with human mass.

More than just dominant animal and economic system is built upon an eccentric fulcrum. Talk will vary nonlinearity.
Like no truth is spoken because ears have different educational functions upon different beings of whom all the same.

Borders aye.. seen the expansion of the disc larger than our galaxy that NASA report our heading at? Expansion of 300-400 km per second??
IDK. I on earth too.

Thinking boats have Wrights.. wondering, which line will sheer to prevent a fulcrum snap??
')

[Lake-Effect]

Originally Posted by CruiseN

We are over populated with human mass.

The problem isn't the number of people, present or future, it's the percentage of stupid.

[hpeer]

Originally Posted by CruiseN

We are over populated with human mass.

More than just dominant animal and economic system is built upon an eccentric fulcrum. Talk will vary nonlinearity.
Like no truth is spoken because ears have different educational functions upon different beings of whom all the same.

Borders aye.. seen the expansion of the disc larger than our galaxy that NASA report our heading at? Expansion of 300-400 km per second??
IDK. I on earth too.

Thinking boats have Wrights.. wondering, which line will sheer to prevent a fulcrum snap??
')

Not at all sure I follow every concept in this thread.

That Earth is over populated, beyond sustainable limits, by humans and our domesticated species, should be obvious to the most casual observer. We have accomplished this situation by drawing down on our “savings account” of fossil fuel and water; among other things. It is simply a matter of physics that this situation will change. To this I agree. How it will happen, and the time frame; is speculation.

My personal speculation is that we are approaching the turning points indicted by the Limits to Growth study. IIRC they did not predict any specific downward trajectory once the limits were hit. They predicted a lot of uncertainty and chaos and a bumpy downward trend.

And that os what I suspect we will see; an uncertain and chaotic future. Covid is just one of the operators in this future. It has destabilized us and brought our distrust to the fore. It has shown us how a glimpse of how vulnerable we are.

When borders will open is an optimistic question that contains the presumption we will regain our past “normal.” And we may do that, or not, over some short period of time; understanding that “decades” are “short” when discussing the span of a culture. No contemporary Roman ever marked on the calendar the day the Roman Empire reached apex.

My current mantra is: We shall see what we shall see. Remain flexible.

[hpeer]

Nichelson58,

My many thanks for that excellent summary. VERY helpful.

We spent March through mid-June in Dominica before sailing back to North Carolina. We are hoping to return to the Caribbean in the fall.

[CaptTom]

Originally Posted by valhalla360

Add in the roughly 1/3 of the population that had immunity via infection and we are probably around 70-75% of the adult population having some level of immunity.

I've been wondering about this. All of the handful of people I know who had tested positive for COVID have since been vaccinated. The one couple I know who think they may have been infected early on (and are avid followers of right-wing media outlets) are in the "very unlikely to get vaccinated" category.

Given my extremely limited sample size, I can draw no firm conclusions. But I can't help but suspect there is a very large overlap between those who have (verifiably) recovered from infection and those who have been vaccinated. In other words, you probably can't just add those groups together.

Originally Posted by Mike OReilly

Of those who say they trust Trump completely, 34% are vaccinated and 48.5% are very unlikely to vaccinate.

Putting politics aside and just looking at human nature, I think this is a fascinating statistic. Assuming you find a given political figure appealing enough to wave flags, wear hats and participate in parades for him, why would you refuse to get vaccinated, knowing he touts developing the vaccine as a personal success story, and has already been vaccinated himself?

I don't want to hear any denigration of them. I have friends in that category. I'm just trying to understand their motives.

[Mike OReilly]

Originally Posted by CaptTom

Putting politics aside and just looking at human nature, I think this is a fascinating statistic. Assuming you find a given political figure appealing enough to wave flags, wear hats and participate in parades for him, why would you refuse to get vaccinated, knowing he touts developing the vaccine as a personal success story, and has already been vaccinated himself?

I don't want to hear any denigration of them. I have friends in that category. I'm just trying to understand their motives.

I completely agree; it is fascinating. All part of the paradox of Trump I suppose. And I in no way want to politicize this discussion. For anyone tempted to hit the rage button ... please don't.

[valhalla360]

Originally Posted by CaptTom

I've been wondering about this. All of the handful of people I know who had tested positive for COVID have since been vaccinated. The one couple I know who think they may have been infected early on (and are avid followers of right-wing media outlets) are in the "very unlikely to get vaccinated" category.

Given my extremely limited sample size, I can draw no firm conclusions. But I can't help but suspect there is a very large overlap between those who have (verifiably) recovered from infection and those who have been vaccinated. In other words, you probably can't just add those groups together.

70-75% was just a rough estimate assuming getting the vaccine after having the infection... is random.

Most cases have minimal or no symptoms and go undiagnosed, so that population is unlikely to be swayed either way by having had it.

I've heard conflicting responses from those who have had diagnosed cases with symptoms. Some say, they have had it so they are immune and don't need the vaccine. Others want it doubly so.

So a best guess of random for immunity via infection or the unvaccinated population, seems a pretty good baseline until better data is found.

Unfortunately, they stopped updating the following website about a month ago but the predictions have been surprisingly good (for example, the 2nd graph shows a small rise in cases mid-april, which is exactly what we saw happen). The first graph gives a nice breakdown of the 3 groups having immunity (via infection, vaccine, both)

They show a slightly lower number at 60% as of today but that's based on an estimate of people with "full immunity". I'm working off of the population with at least 1 dose and the understanding that those willing to take the 1st dose would presumably be willing to take the 2nd dose and will achieve full immunity in the next 3-4 weeks, so we can presume at least that level of the population will have immunity.

https://covid19-projections.com/path-to-herd-immunity/

Plus per the CDC website, the people getting their 1st dose is still over 800,000 for the current 7 day average, so the population expected to have immunity is still climbing at a good pace.

[sv_pelagia]

As per the CDC, as of May 25th 6am ET, the percent of the total USA population with at least one dose is 49.5%...

https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#vaccinations

[Scorpius]

The Province of British Columbia has just announced that travel restrictions WITHIN the province (we are divided into three health regions - with the Greater Vancouver region having the vast majority of the Covid infections) will continue.

So, if we can't even travel around our own province (and there are police checkpoints to stop us), I don't see our international borders opening up too soon.

[sv_pelagia]

Originally Posted by Scorpius

The Province of British Columbia has just announced that travel restrictions WITHIN the province (we are divided into three health regions - with the Greater Vancouver region having the vast majority of the Covid infections) will continue.

... will continue until about June 15th

(Given we were hoping/planning to head north end of this week approx, and we are in Vancouver Coastal region, that "slows" us down a week or so)

[Scorpius]

Originally Posted by sv_pelagia

... will continue until about June 15th

(Given we were hoping/planning to head north end of this week approx, and we are in Vancouver Coastal region, that "slows" us down a week or so)

I didn't hear the beginning of the press conference so I didn't know about the June 15th date.

You can come as far as the southern edge of Desolation Sound (Prideaux Haven, Laura's Cove, etc.). They are in Vancouver Coastal. Go and spend some time in Princess Louisa! Kill some time, go back to Pender to re-provision, and to Westview for fuel and its fabulous water.

Texada Island is in Vancouver Coastal (because its ferry comes to Powell River). Lasquiti is in Vancouver Island (because its ferry goes to French Creek) so that's out. I'm not sure about Jedidiah but it's probably in Vancouver Coastal as it's closer to Texada than Lasquiti.

The health region boundaries were not drawn with cruisers/boaters in mind.

[sv_pelagia]

Jedediah is technically in Island Health. Not that anyone really checks on the water....

"Regions" were clearly setup for Vancouver Island boaters... [emoji51]

Yes, we know we can do Sechelt Inlet, Jervis, lower Desolation, etc, but our goals are North of Caution.


PS Scorpius, where was it in Gwaii Haanas did you have kelp/rope issues?