Winter Weather in Adriatic

[Katiusha]

Is anyone familiar with weather patterns in the Adriatic and been tracking Adriatic weather this year? I have read that the weather usually switches to winter pattern in November. Based on what you see this year, do you think it likely for winter weather to come early?

I am asking because we are still heading north in the Adriatic, but will need to move to Turkey for the winter. So just thinking when would be a good time to turn around to head south. Our conservative idea is to leave Venice (our desired northern-most point) by the 15th-20th Sept and get to Corfu or by end Sept. How likely, in your opinion, that we're too conservative for this year's pattern?

Thanks in advance!

P.S. Please, this is not a climate change thread.

[Tellus]

Hi Katiusha,

the most important info you must keep of: BORA
Bora (wind) - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
Adria can be hell if Bora blows.

Fair winds
Tellus

[Katiusha]

Thanks Tellus, I realise that. But my question pertains to going south. My question is whether anybody thinks that southerly storms with jugo winds will start earlier this year or not.

We spent a few years on and off in Turkey and by now in the Aegean I can tell the signs if the weather will turn to winter pattern (with strong storms with south winds) early or not. It is our first time in the Adriatic, so I cannot tell if the recent increase of fronts, albeit weak, is signalling earlier than usual winter weather pattern.

[barnakiel]

I am not sure anybody can tell you that.

We are experiencing an 'early' autumn over the whole area but this does not imply winter's early arrival.

You are better off planing for early winter and sailing accordingly.

Long range Wx forecasting is very often way off. I would not rely on.

barnakiel

[goboatingnow]

I would echo others, Its very hard to tell. There are winter or near winter periods when you can sail anywhere and there are situations where you get storm bound for weeks.

Id certainly try and complete by end of Oct.

dave

[Tellus]

Nobody can tell you if winter is near and how long it will continue.
And asking anybody for a forecast can sound like this:

Some settler in the Wild West wanna know how the winter will be.
They´re going to ask an old Sioux. He´s looking around, nipping at his pipe and after a while he said:
"winter shall be long and very cold - white men are chipping lots of wood."

My own experiences in adriatic are small, but turn out before end of October.

Cheers Tellus

[jckb]

Thunderstorms build up during September.

First winter depressions with cold sectors arrive during October.

Sometimes both events occur a little earlier. And sometimes later.

Charter boats go to bed in early October. Now there's a hint.

[Visarend]

Heading south before the end of September does not sound too conservative, IMHO. Very often equinoxe storms are strong and last a few days. Furthermore, autumn and winter in the Ionian islands are very rainy (testified by the lush green in Corfu and surrounding islands).
For a general overview on medium term forecast, one of the best general meteo services for this area is IL METEO.IT | Meteo e previsioni del tempo sempre aggiornate (only in Italian, sorry!)
30 days general outlook: Meteo e Previsioni del tempo a 30 giorni, mensili | IL METEO.IT
Marine forecast for the Adriatic: Croazia e Adriatico | IL METEO.IT
See also the very good Israelian 6 days wind/waves forecast for the mediterranean:
Mediterranean Wave Forecast (WAM)

[Tellus]

As I said...Bora can be like Hell.
Yesterday Bora had peaks up to 147mls/hr or 237Km/std. at the bridge to Krk, near Rijeka.