2024 Atlantic Hurricane Season Forecasts:

[Tin Tin]

Originally Posted by GordMay

“Explosive Atlantic hurricane season predicted for 2024" ~ AccuWeather
➥ https://www.accuweather.com/en/hurri...s-warn/1633944


See also:
➥ https://www.cruisersforum.com/forums...ml#post3887184
➥ https://www.cruisersforum.com/forums...ml#post3887214

Do you have Accuweathers forecasts done in March compared to what actually happened the following season for last 5 years?

[GordMay]

Originally Posted by Tin Tin

Do you have Accuweathers forecasts done in March compared to what actually happened the following season for last 5 years?

Sorry; I don’t have those particular statistics.

However, here’s a comparison of the National Hurricane Center vs Colorado State University, historical prediction accuracy:
Taking an average of the season’s number of storms, hurricanes and major hurricanes when compared to the forecast, NOAA was off by 2.47 storms in the 11 years, from 2010 to 2020. Colorado State was off by an average of 3.33 storms for that same period.

And, here’s some interesting articles, on the subject of prediction accuracy:
Reality check: How accurate are NOAA’s hurricane forecasts? [May, 2014]
➥ https://globalnews.ca/news/1347409/r...ane-forecasts/
And:
Tracking the Tropics: How accurate are hurricane season forecasts? [June, 2021]
➥ https://www.wfla.com/weather/trackin...son-forecasts/

[mbianka]

When I worked in television there was a Producer in the control room who described weather stories that were broadcast during the news as "weather porn". Because it bumped up the ratings. Fear sells!

[hlev00]

I found this historical look at possible effects of La Niña vs El Niño on hurricanes paths and frequency interesting if not overly convincing about what to expect this year. It is still a bunch of scribbly lines seemingly not too far off from reading tea leaves.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ktEdxE6JVc8&t=398s

[Tin Tin]

AN interesting takeaway from the NOAA report :

"Doubling in the number of named storms over a century is very likely due to technology change, not natural or man-made climate change;"

[GordMay]

Originally Posted by Tin Tin

AN interesting takeaway from the NOAA report :
"Doubling in the number of named storms over a century is very likely due to technology change, not natural or man-made climate change;"

“Was 2020 a Record-Breaking Hurricane Season? Yes, But. . .” ~ by Chris Landsea and Eric Blake

➥ https://noaanhc.wordpress.com/2021/0...eason-yes-but/

Your quote wording is accurate, BUT NOT your attribution.
It was NOT from a NOAA report, but an Official BLOG of the NHC.

It should be noted that the following discussion is Chris’ and Eric’s opinions only and does not represent any official position of NHC, NWS or NOAA in general.
Various scientists within NOAA have differing opinions about global warming’s impact on hurricanes and there is no official NOAA policy on the topic.
Varying ideas on an issue often mean that it is a science in progress with no definitive answers. That is certainly the case with regards to global warming and hurricanes.

➥ https://noaanhc.wordpress.com/2021/0...eason-yes-but/

See also:
“The State of Hurricane Forecasting” ~ by John Cangialosi
➥ https://noaanhc.wordpress.com/2018/0...e-forecasting/

And:
“National Hurricane Center Forecast Verification”
➥ https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/verification/

[Tin Tin]

Originally Posted by GordMay

“Was 2020 a Record-Breaking Hurricane Season? Yes, But. . .” ~ by Chris Landsea and Eric Blake

➥ https://noaanhc.wordpress.com/2021/0...eason-yes-but/

Your quote wording is accurate, BUT NOT your attribution.
It was NOT from a NOAA report, but an Official BLOG of the NHC.
➥ https://noaanhc.wordpress.com/2021/0...eason-yes-but/

See also:
“The State of Hurricane Forecasting” ~ by John Cangialosi
➥ https://noaanhc.wordpress.com/2018/0...e-forecasting/

And:
“National Hurricane Center Forecast Verification”
➥ https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/verification/

OK, my mistake, I referred to it as a NOAA report (Because it Had the NOAA logo on it) but the guys that wrote it are "Christopher W. Landsea is the Chief of the Tropical Analysis and Forecast Branch at the National Weather Service’s National Hurricane Center in Miami, Florida. Eric Blake is a Senior Hurricane Specialist at the National Hurricane Center." - but what would they know?

[GordMay]

Originally Posted by Tin Tin

OK, my mistake, I referred to it as a NOAA report (Because it Had the NOAA logo on it) but the guys that wrote it are "Christopher W. Landsea is the Chief of the Tropical Analysis and Forecast Branch at the National Weather Service’s National Hurricane Center in Miami, Florida. Eric Blake is a Senior Hurricane Specialist at the National Hurricane Center." - but what would they know?

Indeed.
I expect they know a LOT, which is why why I provided a link* to their opinion piece.

And, IMO, they make a very good case that “Doubling in the number of named storms over a century is very likely due to technology change”; but don’t even address the effects of natural or man-made climate change, on storm frequency, intensity, nor track, rendering the second part of their opinion [“... not natural or man-made climate change”] unsubstantiated.

But, Chris and Eric aren’t the only highly qualified scientists, at NOAA/NHC.
As the footnote, to the Blog* states:

“... Various scientists within NOAA have differing opinions about global warming’s impact on hurricanes and there is no official NOAA policy on the topic.
Varying ideas on an issue often mean that it is a science in progress with no definitive answers.
That is certainly the case with regards to global warming and hurricanes.”

* ➥ https://noaanhc.wordpress.com/2021/0...eason-yes-but/

[GordMay]

CSU 2024 Seasonal Hurricane Forecast #1:

Meteorologists widely hold Colorado State University’s [CSU] seasonal outlooks in high regard, because of the team’s accuracy, in identifying the factors [including warm ocean waters, low wind shear, moist air, and robust thunderstorms], that are likely to influence tropical cyclone activity, across the Atlantic basin.

Colorado State University [CSU] released its first seasonal forecast, for 2024*, on Thursday, April 4.

They anticipate that the 2024 Atlantic basin hurricane season will be extremely active, citing record warm tropical and eastern
subtropical Atlantic sea surface temperatures, as a primary factor, for their prediction of 11 hurricanes [incl. 5 major hurricanes], and 23 named storms, this year.

Forecasters expect this year’s storm activity to generate an Accumulated Cyclone Energy [ACE] of about 210, which would place 2024 near the upper end of all hurricane seasons, since records began in 1851. An average Atlantic hurricane season generates an ACE of about 123.
The highest ACE generated by a season, in the modern era, was 245 during the 2005 season.

The report also includes the probability of major hurricanes making landfall:
• 62% for the entire U.S. coastline (average from 1880–2020 is 43%).
• 34% for the U.S. East Coast, including the Florida peninsula (average from 1880–2020 is 21%).
• 42% for the Gulf Coast from the Florida panhandle westward to Brownsville (average from 1880–2020 is 27%).
• 66% for the Caribbean (average from 1880–2020 is 47%).

A “normal” hurricane season, in the Atlantic basin, produces about 14 named tropical storms. Seven of those named storms, typically, grow into hurricanes, three of which strengthen into major hurricanes, with winds of about 180 km/h or stronger.

Press release [summary]:
“CSU researchers predicting well above-average 2024 Atlantic hurricane season” ~ by CSU MarComm. Staff
➥ https://tropical.colostate.edu/Forec...essrelease.pdf

* CSU Forecast for 2024 Hurricane Activity ➥ https://tropical.colostate.edu/forecasting.html

[Montanan]

“It’s tough to make predictions, especially about the future.”

― Yogi Berra

[GordMay]

What Do Meteorologists Predict for the 2024 Hurricane Season?
Interview of Meteorologist Ryan Truchelut [of WeatherTiger*], by Steve Curwood, from “Living on Earth,” Public Radio’s environmental news magazine [PRX].

“Supercharged Hurricane Season” ~ April 12, 2024
Transcript ➥ https://www.loe.org/shows/segments.h...15&segmentID=1
Audio [10:58] ➥ https://dcs.megaphone.fm/LOE77645488...9b293&source=3

Originally Posted by LOE

“Some scientists are predicting this year’s Atlantic hurricane season will be extremely active, as a La Niña develops, amid ocean warmth, linked to global warming. Meteorologist Ryan Truchelut, of WeatherTiger, joins Host Steve Curwood, to discuss the science behind these factors, and how people, along the Atlantic and Gulf coasts, can stay safe.”

* WeatherTiger's Hurricane Watch ~ by Dr. Ryan Truchelut
“Atlantic Hurricane Season First Look: March 2024"
Expert analysis of Florida hurricane threats, with a twist of dad humour.
➥ https://weathertiger.substack.com/p/...son-first-look

Originally Posted by wx_tiger

“Atlantic and Pacific indications are lining up for large-and-in-charge hurricane season...”

“Living on Earth” ~ Public Radio’s environmental news magazine.
➥ https://www.loe.org/

[Tenedos]

https://engr.source.colostate.edu/re...ricane-season/

Colorado State University hurricane researchers are predicting an extremely active Atlantic hurricane season in their initial 2024 forecast. The team cites record warm tropical and eastern subtropical Atlantic sea surface temperatures as a primary factor for their prediction of 11 hurricanes this year.

Uh oh, we are getting the delivery of our new boat in Florida in August...

[Tin Tin]

Originally Posted by Tenedos

https://engr.source.colostate.edu/re...ricane-season/



Uh oh, we are getting the delivery of our new boat in Florida in August...

How is it arriving, by ship or own its own. If it was me I would have it delivered to the Med and shake it down there for 3 months and sail it back with the ARC.

[Tenedos]

Originally Posted by Tin Tin

How is it arriving, by ship or own its own. If it was me I would have it delivered to the Med and shake it down there for 3 months and sail it back with the ARC.

It's coming on a ship. Med would not be convenient from a logistics perspective and Florida is the only delivery option in the US.

[Tin Tin]

Originally Posted by Tenedos

It's coming on a ship. Med would not be convenient from a logistics perspective and Florida is the only delivery option in the US.

That's the problem with schedules and cruising boats, they don't mix.