2024 Atlantic Hurricane Season Forecasts:

[GordMay]

Originally Posted by Tenedos

https://engr.source.colostate.edu/re...ricane-season/

Uh oh, we are getting the delivery of our new boat in Florida in August...

CONGRATULATIONS!

[Montanan]

Originally Posted by Tenedos

https://engr.source.colostate.edu/re...ricane-season/



Uh oh, we are getting the delivery of our new boat in Florida in August...

First that assumes that ports in Florida continue to exist this hurricane season.

Be sure that your vessel's insurance policy has extended coverage for storm damage that occurs in the hurricane zone [e.g., south of Cape Hatteras, north of Grenada].

Resolve the insurance underwriting NOW, not when the contracted vessel is delivered as this could be difficult to obtain and expensive.

Bon voyages.

[GordMay]

Originally Posted by Montanan

...Resolve the insurance underwriting NOW, not when the contracted vessel is delivered as this could be difficult to obtain and expensive.
Bon voyages.

Indeed.
Insurance might be [almost?] impossible to get, once a named storm threatens.

[GordMay]

“This Year’s La Niña Could Worsen Atlantic Hurricane Season” ~ by Pedro DiNezio & The Conversation
➥ https://www.scientificamerican.com/a...ricane-season/

“Earth is shifting into a La Niña period, changing climate patterns all around the globe.
What is La Niña?
How does La Niña affect hurricanes?
What happens in the Southern Hemisphere during La Niña?
Is climate change affecting La Niña’s impact? ...”

[DragonflyBob]

I have several observations.

1. Informed people who live on the Gulf coast and east coast have always known that the La Nina pattern is typically a higher frequency storm season compared to El Nino.

2. From my own observation as a lifelong resident of the mid Gulf coast (Mobile and New Orleans areas) and also the language of the director of the National Hurricane Center when he was interviewed (and challenged) by CNN's Don Lemon last year, the frequency of named storms has not really changed in the last few decades with better weather recording and forecast tools.

3. News outlets using language like "explosive", "catastrophic", "unprecedented" in reaction to early storm season predictions are acting irresponsibly.

4. By my own observation, the towns, cities, and surrounding areas (to each town/city) along the Gulf coast where I live typically get a serious hit from a named storm on a frequency of every 12-15 years. We were affected by Katrina in 2005 and then Ida in 2021. Before that time, the last time the New Orleans area had a devastating hurricane hit was Besty in 1964. MS Gulf coast saw Camille in 1968, Katrina in 2005, and Zeta in 2021.

Bottom line for those of us who live in hurricane prone areas is to have your storm plan developed in the spring and assess your gear and equipment for securing your boat as best you can and be sure your neighbors in the marina are doing the same. I have open dialogue with my slip mates about how we will secure our boats.

[GordMay]

NOAA predicts above-normal 2024 Atlantic hurricane season [May 23, 2024]
La Niña*, and warmer-than-average ocean temperatures, are major drivers of tropical activity
➥https://www.noaa.gov/news-release/noaa-predicts-above-normal-2024-atlantic-hurricane-season

NOAA is forecasting:

• An 85% chance of an above-normal season,
• A 10% chance of a near-normal season,
• And a 5% chance of a below-normal season,

• 17 to 25 total named storms (winds of 39 mph or higher),
• Of those, 8 to 13 are forecast to become hurricanes (winds of 74 mph or higher),
• Including 4 to 7 major hurricanes (category 3, 4 or 5; with winds of 111 mph or higher).

Forecasters have a 70% confidence in these ranges.

NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center will update the 2024 Atlantic seasonal outlook in early August, prior to the historical peak of the season.


* Impacts of El Niño and La Niña on the hurricane season
➥ https://www.climate.gov/news-feature...ic%20stability.


NOAA also issues seasonal hurricane outlooks, for the eastern Pacific [1], central Pacific [2], and western north Pacific [3] hurricane basins.

[1] NOAA 2024 Eastern Pacific Hurricane Season Outlook
A below-normal season is most likely (60% chance). There is a 30% chance of a near-normal season, and only a 10% chance of an above-normal season.
➥ https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/produc...rr/index.shtml

[2] NOAA predicts a below-normal 2024 central Pacific hurricane season
There is a 50% chance of below-normal tropical cyclone activity [1 -4 Tcs, compaed to 4 -5 normally]. The outlook also indicates a 30% chance of a near-normal season, and 20% for an above-normal hurricane season across the central Pacific hurricane region.
➥ https://www.noaa.gov/news-release/noaa-predicts-below-normal-2024-central-pacific-hurricane-season

[3] NOAA’s Western North Pacific Tropical Cyclone (TC) Outlook for the remainder of 2024
Below-normal activity, for the Federated States of Micronesia (FSM), the Republic of the Marshall Islands (RMI), the Commonwealth of the Northern Mariana Islands (CNMI), and the Territory of Guam;
And for below-normal to normal activity, for the Republic of Palau (ROP).
➥ https://www.weather.gov/media/gum/2024_Western_North_Pacific_Tropical_Cyclone_Outlook.pdf

[GordMay]

Colorado State University Hurricane Forecast Update: July 9, 2024
➥ https://tropical.colostate.edu/Forecast/2024-07.pdf

See also ➥ https://www.cruisersforum.com/forums...ml#post3916157

Originally Posted by CSU

“We have slightly increased our forecast and continue to call for an extremely active Atlantic hurricane season in 2024.
Sea surface temperatures averaged across the hurricane Main Development Region of the tropical Atlantic and Caribbean remain near record warm levels. Extremely warm sea surface temperatures provide a much more
conducive dynamic and thermodynamic environment for hurricane formation and intensification.
We anticipate cool neutral ENSO or La Niña during the peak of the
Atlantic hurricane season, resulting in reduced levels of tropical Atlantic vertical wind shear.
Hurricane Beryl, a deep tropical Category 5 hurricane, is also a likely harbinger of a hyperactive season.
This forecast is of above-normal confidence. We anticipate a well
above-average probability for major hurricane landfalls along the continental United States coastline and in the Caribbean.
As with all hurricane seasons, coastal residents are reminded that it only takes one hurricane making landfall to make it an active season.
Thorough preparations should be made every season, regardless of predicted activity.
... more"