Atlantic Hurricane Forecast

[GordMay]

Hurricane experts at Colorado State University predict an above-average Atlantic hurricane season, with 15 named storms and eight hurricanes — four of them major.

This is an increase from predictions made in December, when scientists Phillip Klotzbach and William Gray predicted 13 named storms and seven hurricanes, with three of them major.

The probability of a major hurricane making landfall on the U.S. East Coast is 45 percent, according to researchers, with a 44 percent chance of such a storm hitting the Gulf Coast.

Goto: The Tropical Meteorology Project: [FORECASTS]

[Hud3]

Gord,

Did you HAVE to bring this up????? I was trying to ignore it, hoping it would go away!

[never monday]

Originally Posted by GordMay

Hurricane experts at Colorado State University predict an above-average Atlantic hurricane season, with 15 named storms and eight hurricanes — four of them major.

This is an increase from predictions made in December, when scientists Phillip Klotzbach and William Gray predicted 13 named storms and seven hurricanes, with three of them major.

The probability of a major hurricane making landfall on the U.S. East Coast is 45 percent, according to researchers, with a 44 percent chance of such a storm hitting the Gulf Coast.

Goto: The Tropical Meteorology Project: [FORECASTS]

sounds like a good middle of the road "safe" forecast.
Nature happens, sit back and be amazed.

[Fishspearit]

Didn't we hear the same sort of doom and gloom last year about this time? A good excuse to jack up oil prices through speculation. And then halfway through the season when we all know what is happening, Dr. Gray will revise his predictions and then amazingly,somehow, be spot on.
While I give the hurricane forecaster great kudos for their tracking and predictions of existing storms, they have historically been in left field on their long range predictions.

[GordMay]

Actually, they claim to be about 80% accurate on their April prediction of an Above or Below Normal season.

[imagine2frolic]

Last year after the same warning. My home insurance was raised 50%. I never did get a refund. I am wondering if it will get another 50% raise this year?

[AnchorageGuy]

I have found over the years that the NWS and NOAA, of which the NHS is part, has a very limited ability to actually forecast marine weather. In many instances they can not even properly report current conditions. So I personally take these predictions for what they are worth, and that is not much. The season will be what it will be and any of us in the hurricane belt take our chances every year.

[GordMay]

This forecast comes from the Colorado State University, not NWS/NOAA.

[AnchorageGuy]

I understand that Gord but they still use the NOAA models, computers, etc to come up with these forecasts. They simply tweak them a bit with their criteria. And occasionally they are correct and more often they are not. Even a broken clock is right twice a day.

[psteele235]

Here is another forecast:

TSR Updated Forecast For Atlantic hurricane Activity 2008

The Benfield-sponsored Tropical Storm Risk forecasting group, led by the Benfield UCL Hazard Research Centre at University College London, issued its April Forecast Update for Atlantic Hurricane Activity in 2008 on 7 April.

Atlantic Hurricane Forecast:

TSR slightly reduces its Atlantic basin hurricane forecast from 50% above-norm (December forecast) to 35% above-norm (April forecast). TSR continues to forecast an active Atlantic hurricane season to high (62%) probability but activity will likely be well below the record-breaking levels seen in 2004 and 2005. Activity in 2008 is expected to be slightly below the mean for the period 1995-2006.

The reason for the slight forecast fall is that sea temperatures in the tropical North Atlantic where most hurricanes form are now anticipated to be cooler in August-September 2008 than thought previously.

The full prediction is available at Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) for long-range forecasts of hurricane, typhoon and cyclone worldwide

(NB: I work for Benfield).

[AnchorageGuy]

And here is the most accurate of all forecasts so far. It is from the STHFS (Sea Trek Hurricane Forecasting Service). This hurricane season will bring, hurricanes. They will develop at an average rate or perhaps less than average rate, or maybe even above average rate. Some will develop into major storms and some will not. Or none may develop into major storms, or all of them will develop into major storms. There is the possibility that some, all or none will make landfall but the possibility of landfall will be higher in the vicinity of the sailing vessel Sea Trek (so far been through 15 named storms). I would like for anyone to take down this forecast and report back at the end of the season as to the accuracy.

[Troutbridge]

Originally Posted by Chuck Baier

And here is the most accurate of all forecasts so far. It is from the STHFS (Sea Trek Hurricane Forecasting Service). This hurricane season will bring, hurricanes. They will develop at an average rate or perhaps less than average rate, or maybe even above average rate. Some will develop into major storms and some will not. Or none may develop into major storms, or all of them will develop into major storms. There is the possibility that some, all or none will make landfall but the possibility of landfall will be higher in the vicinity of the sailing vessel Sea Trek (so far been through 15 named storms). I would like for anyone to take down this forecast and report back at the end of the season as to the accuracy.

I reckon that's as accurate as it gets!
Apparently the Atlantic is warmer than average near the Cape Verde Isles and somewhat colder than average mid Atlantic and Caribbean. Does that mean a Tropical disturbances forming then petering out? Who really knows now, but we'll all know this time next year

[Hud3]

Dr. Jeff Masters has a blog entry worth reading on this topic at

Wunder Blog : Weather Underground

He points out that, "Today's [Gray/Klotzbach] forecast includes the statement, "These real-time operational early April forecasts have not shown forecast skill over climatology" during the 13-year period 1995-2007. In other words, today's forecast has no skill, and should merely be viewed as an interesting experimental research product. I like the fact that they are trying to make useful seasonal hurricane forecasts, but we should wait until their June 3 forecast before putting faith in their 2008 hurricane season forecasts."


Legend for the graph below:
Accuracy of long-range forecasts of Atlantic hurricane season activity performed by Bill Gray and Phil Klotzbach of Colorado State University (colored squares) and TSR (colored lines). The CSU team's April forecast skill is not plotted, but is near zero. The skill is measured by the Mean Square Skill Score (MSSS), which looks at the error and squares it, then compares the percent improvement the forecast has over a climatological forecast of 10 named storms, 6 hurricanes, and 2 intense hurricanes. TS=Tropical Storms, H=Hurricanes, IH=Intense Hurricanes, ACE=Accumulated Cyclone Energy NTC=Net Tropical Cyclone Activity. Image credit: TSR.

[Fishspearit]

Originally Posted by GordMay

Actually, they claim to be about 80% accurate on their April prediction of an Above or Below Normal season.

And my dog is 50% accurate with his January prediction of an Above or Below Normal season. And he doesn't even have a phd.

[Artful Dodger]

If the chaps didn't provide the information or possible forcast of the season ahead, what would be our comments if without early warning a storm was to wipe out the eastern seaboard. I wonder would there be crys of what could have we done to be better prepared. I would rather be informed, right or wrong so I might have a chance to make a decision about my safety.