avoiding hurricane season in the carib/bahamas?

[GreenWave]

100% avoidance of hurricanes is impossible. Either get way south like boatman said or go way north to Maine. That’s gets your avoidance down to 5%.

[littleships]

Originally Posted by keepondancin

Hurricane Ivan in 2004 decimated Grenada.

Yes and the prior one was hurricane Janet in 1957
Great odds!

[Nicholson58]

Originally Posted by cemdev

Super newb question, but I'm a little confused as how to avoid hurricane season if you want to live on your boat and spend a year or two in the bahamas/carribean/central america. Say anywhere between florida/bahamas and venezuela to the east, and along the central american coastline to the west.

As I understand it, bahamas and carribean is risky June - Oct, so where do you go then if you're a full-time liveaboard without desire to cross the atlantic or go through the panama canal?

We have kept our boat, along with many cruiser friends in Trinidad at Power Boats. Totally outside of the hurricane zone. Great place, great tours.

Many stay long term at the marina in Rodney bay, St Lucia. Sail sout for a big storm and come back later.

Generally, south of 10 north gets you out of the zone. Bahamas is a no-go.

[Nic Homan]

Southern Grenada is considered outside the hurricane area for insurance purposes. You also have Trinidad and Tobago.
We are in Colombia ATM en route to Panama but getting back against the prevailing wind would be uncomfortable unless you go northish.
A friend went down to Surinam which he enjoyed but there is not many facilities.

[seacap]

Ok, I have lived in the eastern Caribbean on my boat for 30 years. Weathered numerous storms including a direct hit from a cat 3 onboard my boat. Here are my observations and recommendations.

First, tropical waves come through every three to five days, not two weeks. NWS says they are accurate only 50% of the time on storm tracks. Even less on intensity. So if you plan to sail south to avoid a storm what do you do with a storm headed south of you but with a historical tendency to turn north toward you?

When I first moved to the Caribbean I took a lead line and sounded all possible hurricane holes, usually mangrove areas. I knew exactly where I would fit. Since I lived on St Thomas most of the time I used a mangrove lagoon on the south coast, Benners Bay. Unfortunately this area has gotten too crowded to be safe anymore. I did ride out Hurricane Marylin a cat 3 there. So snug in the mangroves that I went to bed for the last half of the storm (I had a barometer).

So when I retired from skippering boats in St Thomas my wife and I opted to get out of the hurricane zone and head south to begin with. We were sitting in Grenada when Maria and Irma hit St Thomas. We eventually ended up in Trinidad and have done that every year until Covid.

But Covid changed the formula. Since we could not get in we had to come up with a new plan. So back to using a hurricane hole in the mangroves. St Thomas was out because of the crowd and we needed a place for the entire summer. We have used and love Vieques. Even rode out a couple of storms there with no problems. A relatively short trip from St Thomas. But for long term it’s hard to reprovision. So we decided to try Salinas on the south coast of Puerto Rico. An area called Jobos is excellent. With numerous possibility’s in the mangroves. Plus staying in Salinas you had a nice marina and excellent and convenient provisioning. All this just 3 miles from Salinas. Plus nice sailing to close by areas fro recreation.

My bottom line. Have a hurricane hole scoped out in a close by mangrove area or go south out of the zone to Trinidad. Otherwise you are risking family and home even though YOU may think it’s a small one.

[SailingHarmonie]

Originally Posted by GreenWave

100% avoidance of hurricanes is impossible. Either get way south like boatman said or go way north to Maine. That’s gets your avoidance down to 5%.

LOL! We have scored a direct hit by one hurricane in our years of cruising the East coast and Caribbean. Hurricane Dorian went right over us while we were at anchor in... Nova Scotia.

[sailcrazy]

Another alternative.....sail the sailing season, then put your boat on the hard, strapped down to buried concrete beams thru the hurricane season. We've been doing that for 9 years now, lost the windex (only) during the double hit in 2018-otherwise no damage. We have been using Puerto Del Rey marina, in Fajardo, PR, but there are others. Bottom line...there is no 100% safe, all-the-time solution. But...our insurance covers us completely!

[cemdev]

This is great information, thank you everyone who replied. Glad I asked, and that there are a few options.

[thomm225]

Yeah, there are a few options if the hurricane is like a Cat 1 or 2 and small, but if a stronger, larger hurricane is headed your way, there may be no escape.

Photo of Ivan 2004. Cat 5 and decreased to Cat 3/4 just before land fall. Surge was 12'-18' depending on where you were.

Most anchored boats were destroyed.

[barnakiel]

As deep into the mangroves as you dare.


And you want max shelter from hurricane swell.


Otherwise Trinidad and the ABC do net get much hit.



b.

[lifeofreilly57]

Usually insurance wants you below 12:40.
We've stayed in Grenada for hurricane season and only caught one tropical storm.
Trinidad is also an alternative and has a good marine support sector. Grenada has marine support businesses and a number of boat yards.

[geozeck]

We spent 4 or 5 hurricane seasons way up the Rio Dulce in Guatemala. Actually September and most of August. There were numerous boats from ALL OVER the Caribbean, eastern western sections. Some cruisers leave their boats for safe keeping for the entire summer and return in the fall. Historically its the very best hurricane hole in the Caribbean. Safe excellent, guarded marinas for
very cheap. If you stay on your boat the Rio offers good dining and non stop entertainment. Sight seeing and tourism available.

[Tupaia]

Originally Posted by keepondancin

Hurricane Ivan in 2004 decimated Grenada.

Ran from Emily that hit Genanda the following year 2005, to Venezuela from Isla Margarita, where it did cause some damage, so yes they do go south.

[merrydolphin]

Originally Posted by boatman61

Grenada, Trinidad.. Aruba, Bonaire, Curaçao..

The only of these that is truly no risk, not just lower risk is Trinidad. It is truly south of the hurricane belt. Grenada is the riskiest. It has a does get major hurricanes, just not as frequently. The good thing about Grenada, other than it’s a great place to be, is that you are just an overnight sail to Trinidad. Have made the trip back and forth every season. If you want, you can stay in Grenada and with some warning, head to Trinidad. ABC’s don’t have this option. You use to be able to sail to Venezuela, but no more.

[CarinaPDX]

The key insight is that hurricanes rarely turn left; they go straight or turn right almost all of the time. Since they build over the Atlantic going westbound if you are south of their track by a good distance you will probably be safe, and certainly in a good position to head further south if it looks to coming close. Any location in front of, or to the right of, a hurricane track is extremely risky. Escape from such a storm means heading south in front of it; heading north does not assure safety as it can turn north and come at you. The further north of the track you are the more you must travel to be clear south of it, and thus the earlier you must react. Delay can mean missing the opportunity to flee south. Personally I would not stay north of Grenada, and if in Grenada would be prepared to jump to Trinidad for a low storm track. Tobago is also a good place to stay but I would still plan to head to Chaguaramas, Trinidad for a low storm. Edges of large southerly hurricanes have, rarely, caused damage even in Trinidad. If you stay further north then you will have to react to more potential storms, and react earlier - I don't think this is a good plan.

Yesterday NOAA released the annual hurricane forecast and because of the record high sea temperatures and forecast La Niña they are predicting a whopping 17 to 25 named storms in the Atlantic this year. This is not the time to be taking risks. https://www.noaa.gov/news-release/no...rricane-season .

Greg