avoiding hurricane season in the carib/bahamas?

[MicHughV]

What is missed in these conversations is that while the NHC does a pretty good job of tracking a 'cane, the " steering currents" which drive the direction of these storms is a bit of an unknown, hence the ever widening " cone" as predicted by the NHC.

All too often, a small jiggle in the project path can mean the difference of a 100 miles at landfall.

Regardless, the strength of these storms has to be seen and experienced in person to understand the enormity of the power these storms can generate.

As far as the Caribbean area is concerned, the only "safe" hurricane haven I can think of is going up the Rio Dulce River in Guatemala.

[merrydolphin]

Originally Posted by keepondancin

Hurricane Ivan in 2004 decimated Grenada.

As did Janet. Seriously decimated. They have had their share. Not as frequent as further up island but has had some bad ones. Trinidad has only had one in history, 1933. 80 mph. That’s it. Just an overnight sail to Trinidad.

[WE9V]

Originally Posted by Zanshin

Here's a challenge - Use NOAA Hurricane tracking tool and find one that went south while still in the Atlantic and made landfall in Caribbean chain. [/URL]

I've found a few that meet your challenge, I believe:
Irma 2017
Luis 1995 (barely)
Unnamed 1886 (very long ago)

[CarinaPDX]

Originally Posted by WE9V

I've found a few that meet your challenge, I believe:

So you found two that turned slightly to the left while still well out in the Atlantic (and the old track never turned left but did travel pretty far south). As I wrote they rarely turn left, and I'll stand by that, but rarely does not mean never. It is not a question of being west, or south, it is a question of being to the left of the storm track, and that is a very good bet. As opposed to staying in the islands and thinking that it is unlikely a hurricane will come your way - a pretty awful bet considering the potential consequences.

I was in Venezuela when Luis hit the islands. Just before a boat came in from the USVI, getting south to get out of the way of Luis. When Luis missed the USVI they complained that all their work was for naught because they could have stayed and not been harmed, and that they then had to wait for the next storm to pass before returning back to Charlotte Amalie. That next, inconvenient storm was Marilyn - which turned right and devastated St. Thomas. About 6 months later I went through the area and the damage was impressive. There was a video circulating at the time that was made by cruisers in St. Martin, and it showed what it was like to take a direct hit from a powerful hurricane. Once you see that if you have a brain you won't be playing hide-and-seek with hurricanes.

Greg

[mvweebles]

Originally Posted by Zanshin

@mvweebles - yes, the insurer will cover losses if you have a hurricane evacuation plan and stick to it. But your question is moot, since Caribbean hurricanes don't go south and not to my escape destination in Grenada. The reason that these storms don't track south is called Coriolis force and is also the reason why there are no hurricanes as you get closer to the equator.
Here's a challenge - Use NOAA Hurricane tracking tool and find one that went south while still in the Atlantic and made landfall in Caribbean chain. The URL is NOAA Hurricane Tracking Tool

"Everyone has a plan......until they get punched in the face". Mike Tyson

Good luck with your plan. Hope it works for you.

[MicHughV]

I can recall visiting St/Martin/Sint Maarten's Simpson Bay Lagoon after Hurricane Irma paid a visit.
Many people considered this enclosed bay to be an ideal "hurricane haven"

Irma put that theory to rest in a big way.
The damage and destruction I witnessed was simply too mind boggling to comprehend.

It was utter and complete devastation as far as the eye could see. From what I could tell not a single boat made it unscathed. Every boat in there had either sunk or been destroyed.

Some years prior to that I went to see the damage caused by hurricane Andrew in Miami/Homestead area.
As above, the carnage was beyond description.

I have a photo album of the destruction I have witnessed that I drag out from time to time to show non-believers what to expect if they want to tempt the fates.