Crossing Gulf Stream Current from Key West

[Atacames]

We are headed to Belize from Key West Florida today and would like to know where is the best point to cross.

[belizesailor]

Image of currents from today attached.

Note: what you are crossing is technically the "Florida Current" not the Gulf Stream, but the name is commonly used incorrectly. The Gulf Stream doesnt technically start till the Florida Current exits the Florida Straits. The "Yucatan Current" runs parallel to the Yucatan Penninsular. That big circular current you see part of in the GOM is the "Gulf Loop Current".

My suggestion is to scoot across as perpendicular to current as possible about where the "1" shows in the image, a slightly weaker area. From there head for just off the W tip of Cuba, then stay to the east of the Yucatan Current as you head S. Get parallel to where you want to be in Belize then hang a right.

Ive not looked at any other weather routing factors, just the current. I assume you have?




Attachment 209426

[belizesailor]

Im guessing you have not. See attached. Today is a bad day to depart. There is a big ass cold front moving fast across the GOM. Unfavorable Southerly winds ahead of it in the Yucatan Channel. Then gusts from the N, against the Yucatan Current, in the 30-40 knot range with frontal passage weds-thursday...you do NOT want to be in Yucatan Channel in those conditions.

Hopefully you havent jumped off yet...if so prepare to get your butt kicked.

[belizesailor]

Originally Posted by belizesailor

Image of currents from today attached.

Note: what you are crossing is technically the "Florida Current" not the Gulf Stream, but the name is commonly used incorrectly. The Gulf Stream doesnt technically start till the Florida Current exits the Florida Straits. The "Yucatan Current" runs parallel to the Yucatan Penninsular. That big circular current you see part of in the GOM is the "Gulf Loop Current".

My suggestion is to scoot across as perpendicular to current as possible about where the "1" shows in the image, a slightly weaker area. From there head for just off the W tip of Cuba, then stay to the east of the Yucatan Current as you head S. Get parallel to where you want to be in Belize then hang a right.

Ive not looked at any other weather routing factors, just the current. I assume you have?




Attachment 209426

Problem w attachment. Here it is again.

[belizesailor]

Looking at recent model runs, it looks like this very strong front is going to roar into the Yucatan Channel about Wed at midnight.

CAPE Index along the frontal boundary is surprisingly low, so probably not any real powerful t-storms, maybe some squalls. Seas in the Yucatan Channel not forecast to get above 3 meters, esp if you stay E of the Yucatan Current.

So, if you left today, likely a slow start in unfavorable winds, then the front rolling over you about midnight on Weds, bringing gusty conditions in the 30-40+ knot range, some maybe in the upper 40's from the N-NW. The front is moving fast so I suggest just heaving to and letting it roll over you. Once it settles down, get back underway.

Behind the front winds should decrease to 20's gusting 30's thru mid day Thurs. Winds should start to abate some by Thurs afternoon...becoming about 17 gusting 25. N winds diminishing thru Sat...clocking to SE by Monday, but staying in good sailing speeds.

For future reference, the usual strategy is to wait for frontal passage and then hitch a ride on the NW-N winds following the front. In this case, late Thursday to Friday AM looks like a pretty good window.

If you did depart today as stated, then hopefully you get thru this with no major breakage or injuries.

[Atacames]

Thank heavens we did not leave. A friend checked in with us. Thank you for all the very specific advice. I am with 2 experienced sailors but neither of them know this area. We will go to a Marina near Belize City. Think we could leave Saturday?

[belizesailor]

Originally Posted by Atacames

Thank heavens we did not leave. A friend checked in with us. Thank you for all the very specific advice. I am with 2 experienced sailors but neither of them know this area. We will go to a Marina near Belize City. Think we could leave Saturday?

You should have someone doing weather routing for you. You just almost stepped in front of a train...there is really no excuse for that these days with all the amazing weather tools at our finger tips.

Tenatively late Thursday/Early Friday looks good to me. The problem with waiting too long this time of year (winter months) is that there will be another front on the tail of this one (in fact its already in the forecast). So, you've got to go when the weather window looks good...just picking a random day isnt likely to work out well.

The key to this run this time of year is knowing what the steady procession of fronts are forecast to do and playing that to your advantage.

[belizesailor]

Ive run a few rough weather routes and here are my thoughts:

It looks like running a bit W to cross at a weaker area of the Florida Current doesnt buy you much so I would just get across as quickly as possible heading for a point a bit W of Havana. Then skirt the Cuban NW coast (well outside the reefs), round the W tip of Cuba, then head for a point just NW of Turnefe Atoll, Belize. This angle keeps you out of most of the Yucatan Current...a route a bit more easterly may avoid more of it. From that point off Turnefe, work your way down to Eastern Channel and make your entrance.

This run has a departure of 9AM Thursday...watch the weather to make sure conditions have settled enough by then.

This is about a 4 day run.

This is just an approximate weather routing so precise waypoints along this route are not significant.

[belizesailor]

Eastern Channel is an easy entrance. You can leave the channel at almost any point after you are well inside and cut across "The Flats" directly toward Cucumber Beach Marina. See chart shot below.

[billknny]

Originally Posted by Atacames

Thank heavens we did not leave. A friend checked in with us. Thank you for all the very specific advice. I am with 2 experienced sailors but neither of them know this area. We will go to a Marina near Belize City. Think we could leave Saturday?

The decision of when to leave is such a critically important decision for any captain, the idea of submitting it to a forum for an answer kind of boogles my mind. To me it is like trying to cross a busy street blindfolded and yelling out to random passing strangers, “Is it safe now?” and taking a majority opinion.

Seriously, this is a big deal. Not just for this trip, but ANY passage. Hire a professional weather router who can help you. Someone who knows your boats capabilities, and yours! Someone who looks at forecasts and currents with knowledge and experience. Not just grib files of computer model outputs.

Every year people DIE because they don’t understand the importance of timing departures based on weather. Don’t be one of them!

[belizesailor]

Hiring a pro to at least keep you safe is good advice. Your other crew aboard may indeed be experienced sailors in terms of boat handling, but clearly not experienced passage makers/weather routers. Even a cursory glance at forecasts, with a bit of knowledge, should have shown them that yesterday was not a good window.

I suggest you contact Marine Weather Center (Chris Parker) and engage his services.

www.mwxc.com

What offshore communication capabilities do you have aboard (SSB, HAM, SAT phone, InReach, ...)?

[belizesailor]

Looks like its about to get sporty in the Yucatan Channel !

[Island Time O25]

My 2c for what it's worth.

When we transited from Hemingway Marina to Panama Canal we hugged the Cuban coast pretty close. You could see buildings, etc. The skipper, who knew this route well, said that it is the only way to minimize the Florida current. Never got bothered by either Cuban or US coasties.

Also, I was surprised at how big Cuba was. It seemed like we were sailing along its coast for ages.

[belizesailor]

Originally Posted by Island Time O25

My 2c for what it's worth.

When we transited from Hemingway Marina to Panama Canal we hugged the Cuban coast pretty close. You could see buildings, etc. The skipper, who knew this route well, said that it is the only way to minimize the Florida current. Never got bothered by either Cuban or US coasties.

Also, I was surprised at how big Cuba was. It seemed like we were sailing along its coast for ages.

Yes, you can even pick up a counter current close along the Cuban coast...just gotta stay clear of the not always well charted/marked reefs.

Many people dont realize how big Cuba is. Its ~615 nm long! Thats about a 4 day sail averaging 6 knots. We spent several months just cruising the N coast of Cuba. I want to get back and cruise the S coast.

[belizesailor]

Looking good for jumping off this morning. Seas are still sloppy in GOM and Yucatan Channel, but should settle down a lot by this evening.

Forecast: N-NNE winds thru Sunday. Clocking NE-E-SE on Monday as the next front enters the GOM. SE winds start building by Tuesday, becoming 20s gusting 30s by Weds.

If you go now you should have a great window.

I would hold a more southerly course after you round the W tip of Cuba and stay well to the East of the Yucatan Current until parallel Belize. This will position you to take advantage of the wind shift on Monday for your course change into Belize and not get caught pounding into SE winds.

Please update here how it goes.