Emily: TD, TS or Hurricane . . .

[MarkJ]

Invest 91L will change to a Named storm within the next few hours and be called Emily. OK theres a 10% chance it will die in the butt...

It looks like its coming though the Caribbean islands between Guadeloupe and the BVI's and then slide into Puerto Rico.

Hud better keep his noggin down in Nevis! However the Grib files are loking much better for Nevis now than ealier today

Guadeloupe looking at 44 kntos Tuesday morning, similar for BVI's Wednesday morning, Puerto Rico 60 knots Wednesday afternoon.


Mark

[capngeo]

Mark... you should come visit Florida. We could feed your hurriphobia quite well here!

[MarkJ]

One interesting thing - and I'm not trying to out think the computer models - (or any blonde model either )... but I have been plotting the point of the center as they have been reported since 2pm 28th, and a straight line through the points shows it clearing east of the Caribbean Islands by 100 nms. With the closest possable being 35 nm east of Anguilla.

[zeehag]

is important to watch with a close eye the storms and paths they take when you are sailing in the areas of hurrycames. the alternative is not fun. i dislike being caught in anything nasty. i think is a wise rather than a phobic thing.

[MarkJ]

Originally Posted by capngeo

Mark... you should come visit Florida. We could feed your hurriphobia quite well here!

If it keeps me alive and my boat floating then I couldn't care if I am perceived as phobic.

A couple of boats left St Martin yesterday to head down here to Grenada. Stupid phobia? Or smart seamanship?

[capngeo]

A buddy of mine on Festina Leinte is one of them!

[Adax]

Mark,

the informed unwashed masses say that "it" will not become a "she" just yet and that there is a chance it will hit dry air which is a buzzkill to a hurricane.

You should hear more tomorrow which is when the recon plane goes out to survey it.

[zeehag]

hope it dissipates nicely and doesn't cause any problems for ye,markj....

[Blue Stocking]

So Emily is back in town eh!
She hit Bermuda at 0630, can't remember the day, Sept 1987.
99knots. IIRC, still on record as the fastest forward motion. over 40mph.
Good luck folks.

[osirissail]

The latest GFS modeling has it holding off until it is north of Puerto Rico/Virgins and then spinning up and heading towards the Bahamas. But before it get there it hooks north and northeast and races across the Atlantic to attack Ireland. Now how's that for unusual or weird weather? (But remember "models" are notorious for their inaccuracy beyond a couple of days.)

[Zanshin]

Friends of mine got space at Nelson's Dockyard in Antigua and are tying down the boat between the dock and the mooring balls (which are megayacht sized), in the hopes that they won't need it. I'm a bit optimistic about the storm tracking further north as well.

[MarkJ]

Boats have been flooding into Grenada all last night and today.
Started with a flock of Cats (I reckon they use engines ) and now monos.

Must be 10 in the last 24 hours.

Like seagulls landing on the beach herald bad weather....

[zeehag]

markj--look past that one and potential for franklin off azores..looks huge and wicked.....keep yer eyes on it....be safe.

[biltong]

There is no excuse for dissing the hurricanes on the chance that they won't be a threat. Be prepared and then retire to the pub. Rather safe than sorry.
All the best for this season.

[Jerry Woodward]

I'm sitting in St Martin right now (on dry land), calm before the storm. What surprises me is that I am looking at several monohuls anchored in Simpson Bay, and there were a surprising number of boats anchored out in Marigot. Maybe they need to look at the hurricane Luis videos on You Tube.