Gulf Crossing St.Petersburg to Gulfport,MS in late September

[DragonflyBob]

New member here so hoping to get some good advice. I’m a long time small boat racer of everything from singlehanded dinghies (Finn, Laser, RS Aero) to foiling multihulls (A-Class catamaran). My wife and I also own two Weta trimarans and we own a Corsair Sprint 750 tri. I’ve been sailing all my life since age of 13, turning 64 in three weeks.

We have entered into a sales agreement for a 2016 Dragonfly 32 that is in great condition. The boat is currently kept at its current owners home at St. Pete Beach/Boca Ciego. We will be doing a final inspection of the boat in four days and expect to take full ownership the first week of September. We live in Covington, LA and will be keeping the boat in the New Orleans Municipal Yacht Harbor which was recently rebuilt with floating docks and passed with flying colors for 95% of the boats in the facility last year as Ida passed over. The only boats that had issues were those where the owners left furled RF jibs up.

The point of this post is to ask if it is totally crazy to consider the 400 mile crossing from St.Pete to Gulfport, MS in mid to late September. We obviously know it is peak hurricane season but with the forecasting tools available (Crown Weather, Commanders, NOAA National Hurricane Center, etc.), we believe it could be safe if there is a forecast of at least 5-7 days of no tropical activity in the Gulf. The Loop current as of today looks to be south of the rhumb line from the mouth of Tampa Bay to the Gulfport sea buoy. Winds are very light this time of year in the Gulf so we would expect to be motoring or motor sailing most of the way so we are planning at least a 2.5 to 3 day transit time if we can maintain 6-7 knots SOG.

Most of my sailing on the Gulf coast when cruising has always been coastal and this crossing would have us in open water for nearly the whole distance. That will be a new experience for me but I do have two very experienced sailors coming with me. One was the US Sailing team boatwright for over 20 years and has done this crossing a couple of times. The other is a sailor I have raced with several times who has lots of experience in open water. We believe other than thunderstorm risks (which we should be able to motor through with sails down), the crossing should be relatively hot and boring if we get a safe weather window forecast. I plan to use Commander’s Weather for routing and forecast planning.

There is the option for us to wait until October (the current owner of the boat has told us we can leave it at his house until he buys a new boat which might not be until late October).

Am I being unrealistic with the potential risks?

Thanks!

[NYSail]

Looks extremely doable to me…… sounds like a great trip!

Good luck with the new boat!

Greg

[Messing About]

Congratulations on the purchase and planned trip to bring her home. I agree it’s doable, as long as you keep the October contingency plan in place and temper your excitement to the point that you’re willing to change to plan B, should any low pressure centers be in the Gulf. Please keep this thread going through the journey so we enjoy it with you, virtually.

[Bobby Lex]

Congrats on the new boat.

42-year resident of Florida here, lifelong sailor, and very tuned-in to the hurricane situation here in Florida.

The problem with your plan, as I see it, is that you are planning your trip during the peak Gulf of Mexico hurricane season.

Within the 6-month official North Atlantic hurricane season, there are "mini" seasons that are more regional. (Note: this is not official NOAA science. This is just "what-Bob-has-observed over 4 decades".) August 15 through September 15 is the peak mini season for systems coming off Africa headed for the Caribbean and eastern US. Because they originate so far away, you generally have 7 to 10 days advance notice, with plenty of time to prepare and adjust your plans. For example, the NOAA Tropical forecasting site shows there is actually a system coming off Africa right now which won't hit the US, if at all, for almost 2 weeks.

However, September 15 through October 15 is the peak mini season for hurricanes forming in the Caribbean and in the Gulf of Mexico. They can form surprisingly fast and have been known to head west, north, east (or even make a 360-degree loop), instead of the long, steady, predictable west northwest tracks we see from systems coming off Africa.

IOW, when you do a multi-day passage in the Gulf of Mexico in September or October, you won't have the luxury of several days' advance notice that something is out there. And you run the risk of getting caught out in it. That would be no bueno.

Here's a link to an interesting video from sailing youtubers Foster's Journey, where they got caught up in what was just a tropical storm (Claudette) while on a passage from Kemah TX to Florida. This was in June, not September, but it shows how quickly "something might be out there" can turn into "we need to get to port NOW!" in the Gulf of Mexico.

If it were me, I would either wait until after October 15 to make your passage. Or I would do it in multiple legs rather than one straight shot from St. Pete to New Orleans. You could do St. Pete to Tarpon Springs. Then to Cedar Key. Then to Carrabelle. Then to Panama City. Then Pensacola, etc. This gives you plenty of options to duck in on pretty short notice if something forms quickly in the Gulf.

Personally, I really don't see the wisdom in doing a multi-day offshore passage, with no offshore experience, on a new-to-you boat, during the peak Gulf of Mexico hurricane period. But that's just me -- I'm a bit on the conservative side when planning passages. Everyone is different in how they approach these things.

Whatever you decide, Good luck. Safe travels, and enjoy the new boat!

Bob

[DragonflyBob]

Thanks for the replies folks. Trust me that I am tempering my excitement with caution and even if there is nothing coming off the African train, I know how during peak season, a low pressure center can suddenly develop in the Gulf in the space of 24-48 hours that can make an easy passage at best extremely uncomfortable. The storm that sticks out in my mind as the most terrifying example of that is Michael in 2018.

Bob’s advice to wait until after mid-October is worth serious consideration.

[dcondit]

Having done this passage several times and also having flown for the Hurricane Hunters out of Biloxi, I’d recommend waiting. I’ve flown many storms in the gulf that developed very rapidly in September. Tropical storm development forecasting is not like the regular weather forecasting so things like commander may not be as good as you think.

[Bobby Lex]

Forgot to add the link noted in my post above:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UH_uptojn-0

Bob

[bensolomon]

My vote is to wait. Winds will be light, and engine will fail when you need it most. Of course coastal hopping is a viable alternative, but your boat might be in harm's way as you move up the coast in a marina should a storm come up while your are either waiting to get back or on the trip.

[Be Free]

I'd recommend waiting or staying close enough to duck in if the weather kicks up. The "hurricane holes" are a little far apart along this section of the coast but most of them are within a day's motoring for you.



Congratulations and good luck.

[sailorbobdeb]

First off re weather, Chris Parker mwxc.com is extremely familiar with the Gulf of Mexico weather and we have relied on his forecasting for our 11 crossings and the 6 month trip to the Bahamas we just completed and are satisfied customers.

When we crossed from St. Petersburg to Pensacola on our way home to NOLA in 2011 there were 4 of us on a Beneteau 43 and it took us approx.55 hours with a combination of sailing and motorsailing. Nowadays, we cross from Clearwater to East Pass/Dog Island or Government Cut (if it is safe, check with TowBoat or locals) 24-26 hrs typically. This cuts down on the length of weather window required.

From there we follow the ICW and exit at St. Joseph Bay to reenter the GOM. Not sure of your air draft, but we are 60' so can't stay in ICW a whole lot east of Pensacola. Once we get back out in the GOM, there's St. Andrew's Bay (Panama City) or Destin or Pensacola that we can tuck into if desired and anchor for a bit before going out again. If your air draft allows, you could take the ICW. These offer us more weather contingent options if we decide to tuck in. From Pensacola to NOLA we can go inside or outside depending on conditions.

Have been in the Gulf from when it was like glass to +8' and it can change quickly. We've crossed every month November through June. Different each time. We always let weather dictate our schedule.

Best of luck with your new boat and safe travels!

[stevec195]

Congrats on the new boat! For me the risk of a tropical event and the maintenance issues of a new to you boat may be doable on their own, but placed together-wouldn’t be my preferred strategy.

[DragonflyBob]

Originally Posted by sailorbobdeb

First off re weather, Chris Parker mwxc.com is extremely familiar with the Gulf of Mexico weather and we have relied on his forecasting for our 11 crossings and the 6 month trip to the Bahamas we just completed and are satisfied customers.

When we crossed from St. Petersburg to Pensacola on our way home to NOLA in 2011 there were 4 of us on a Beneteau 43 and it took us approx.55 hours with a combination of sailing and motorsailing. Nowadays, we cross from Clearwater to East Pass/Dog Island or Government Cut (if it is safe, check with TowBoat or locals) 24-26 hrs typically. This cuts down on the length of weather window required.

From there we follow the ICW and exit at St. Joseph Bay to reenter the GOM. Not sure of your air draft, but we are 60' so can't stay in ICW a whole lot east of Pensacola. Once we get back out in the GOM, there's St. Andrew's Bay (Panama City) or Destin or Pensacola that we can tuck into if desired and anchor for a bit before going out again. If your air draft allows, you could take the ICW. These offer us more weather contingent options if we decide to tuck in. From Pensacola to NOLA we can go inside or outside depending on conditions.

Have been in the Gulf from when it was like glass to +8' and it can change quickly. We've crossed every month November through June. Different each time. We always let weather dictate our schedule.

Best of luck with your new boat and safe travels!

Our mast is 61' tall so we are in the same "boat" as you in regards to bridges. How long does the ICW leg starting going to East Bay take? It would look to be a bit nerve wracking with barge traffic.

[sailorbobdeb]

[QUOTE:} Our mast is 61' tall so we are in the same "boat" as you in regards to bridges. How long does the ICW leg starting going to East Bay take? It would look to be a bit nerve wracking with barge traffic.[/QUOTE]

Barge traffic is no big deal. Just have your vhf on and keep watch. If they have any concerns, they'll hail you and you can do same. AIS is great in that respect because you can 'see' each other on the MFD/chartplotter and hail by name instead of approx. location and direction of travel.

From St. Joseph Bay anchored just inside the entrance channel from the Gulf to the Dog Island/East Pass area usually takes us around 6-8 hours including a fuel (and sometimes a meal) stop at Scipio Creek Marina in Apalachicola. It's really easy and well marked.

They're supposed to be dredging Government Cut which is not far from Apalachicola and that would shave several hours off the trip and you can just depart from there to the FL peninsula. We used that PROIR to Michael. In May they told us it is supposed to be dredged soon. However, it has not been usable since Michael for a 6' draft vessel like us.

Having a new to you boat is always exhilarating and can also provide some tense moments and learning experiences. I wish you the best and feel free to reach out. This spring we'll be in NOMYH for a few months, maybe we can chat.

[DragonflyBob]

We’re now looking to see if the weather window will be safe towards the end of the first week of October. There’s a full moon at that time that would make night sailing easier and safer if the conditions cooperate. We do have options to wait longer. We’ll just have to see how the storm season progresses. It’s been relatively tame so far but the next 4-6 weeks are always the ones we sweat through.

[Rockinar]

I tried this trip last October and got my butt handed to me by cold fronts once I got to Carrabelle and ended up going to ICW from there which I should have done as Plan A. ICW from Carabelle to Mobile is a pleasant and smooth river ride (much more so than I expected) with tons of anchorages. I rather enjoyed it. I should have just motored it instead of waiting around for good weather. But if you have the weather and cant do ICW due to bridge height, go for it.

Also you should subscribe to Marv's Weather Service. Its a free daily email that will give you some idea of weather conditions from Tampa to Apalachicola area at least.