Heads up: Hurricane IRMA upgraded to cat 3

[chris07732]

Storm is on a beeline towards the Caribbean. Probably will hit PR and DR Thursday

HURRICANE IRMA

[SailingFan]

Well, I know it is a long while until she gets to the US mainland, but I was looking at the SST charts from NOAA today, and it looks like the thermal boost offered by the Gulf Stream is running a little cooler than normal right now in the southeast (coastal Florida to the North Carolina barrier islands), and also I noticed that Irma's track (again, WAY off in time at the moment) is dancing right over the DR as you mentioned, and toward South Florida, or maybe the Gulf of Mexico (like Texas needs more grief).

It looks like the Atlantic High is in place to keep pushing her south, or at least encourage her from flipping onto a northern track before she gets much closer to the mainland. Maybe the cooler water will keep her from Cat 5 territory (but we can only hope, that surface outflow from the High north of her is feeding her rotation and steering her as well, but cooler water will keep her steam engine efforts to build subdued), but if she does hit Florida, it will be messy as all hell. The islands along the way won't even slow her down, most likely.

We are still getting a bit of rain from the disheveled remnants of Harvey (centered right now over Kentucky, but weather wreckage is all over the Southeast), and won't be dry before Irma gets here. If Irma is a Category 4 or 5 and hits South Florida, it will be an Andrew situation. I sure hope the Keys are ready too. Even a glancing hit with a 4 will be bad there.

I will have to keep an eye on this one, my boat is on the hard along the St. John's River, but she needs her mast dropped (under control) and rigging checked, and I would rather it be down when the weather hits her than up in the air. Matthew flooded the St. Johns to the point that the surge did not get to my boat stands, but only short of them by about a foot of elevation. It was closer than I liked. I will be tossing a few extra under her over this weekend, to be sure...

What is everyone doing to assure you are getting ready?

[SailingFan]

If Florida, not this, but next Sunday may be the day... if North Carolina (assuming the track holds and the High does not push her south into Florida and the Gulf of Mexico) then probably Monday or Tuesday after next will be the days. Best case, she turns into the High (that mass would have to fall apart to allow this) and heads to the GIUK gap and leaves us alone!

[SailingFan]

Correction, the Bermuda High.. I must be getting old and senile...

Save

[rourkeh]

On the boat in St Maarten watching this develop. Looks like it will be a Cat 4-5 by the time it hits us here. I went through all the storms from Andrew on when I lived in Florida, not looking forward to riding out another monster storm. Saying a prayer for this thing to pass by.

[zeehag]

irma will be a cat 5 on landfall, and if you are lucky, not an intensifying cat 5. even if it is only cat 3 on landfall, if you didnot prep for intensifying cat 5 you do disservice to self and others as your prep affects others around you.
this is very early, and irma has no idea what irma will do or be. count on intensifying cat 5 and get ready.
patricia played with us a lil before she slammed us. if we had been only prepped for cat 3, we da deaded.
seriously.
she was intensifying cat 5 on landfall.
be ready. oh yes we were not in the cone when patricia decided to intensify over our little pea brained heads. so take note and learn from others so you do not have to whine about the horrifics of a cane such as this.
life rocks, make sure you survive a simple storm.
cane holes work. anchor like an oil rig.
maine should be one, and grenada.
between, hahahahaha good luck.
flip a coin.

seriously, be safe. be well anchored and prepped for a cat 5. beast will mean business wherever she chooses to vaycay.


ps no one thinks about the small craft that serve our whims ~during the canes please tie to dock securely , in the water, allow em to fill with water and stay where they belong. otherwise they fly and become dangerous missiles. in mangroves, do what locals do~~sinkem for underwater storage, without engine, and secure well in mangroves.

[zeehag]

btw--there is another formation growing beside irmas wake. donot overlook this thing.

[micksbuddy]

Cat 5, 180mph! Holy crap!

[zeehag]

irma at cat 5 followed by jose at ts now and one in campeche bay. ok it is ON....

[SailingFan]

OK, this season is stacking up just fine...

I am watching Irma with interest (closest to me, ATM), and she is still looking like she is going to in fact impact the US mainland East Coast, and either in Florida (like, Miami perhaps) or if the Bermuda High fails, the Carolinas will be on the short list. It all depends on when the High weakens and how much impetus is generated by the Gulf Stream (which still is not even a factor yet - if you think the storm is strong now, wait until it hits that current and see the explosion of growth).

Fortunately, the difference in temperatures between the GS and the water around it is not as high as it was when Andrew came in IIRC, but that can change, albeit slowly. Maybe we will get lucky and the difference will remain a little less? The difference is what counts, rather than what the temperature actually is.

Additionally, there is a ridge building over Florida, and depending on where the storm is when it meets that ridge, Irma will either deflect to the North or it will intensify further and continue on the path she is on at that meeting. There are SO many things interacting with this one, it is getting more complicated by the day.

I am heading to the yard tomorrow to pull Equinox' mast though, just in case. I don't need her mast tearing off the weakened cabin top and turning my darling into a herring tin, then filling her with rainwater and yard debris/tree limbs and leaves. I would not be as worried, but the core of the cabin top has collapsed internally, and the increase in the rigging play has me concerned that it will be sloppy enough that even a near miss may weaken the step enough to allow it to get away in one direction or another, and rock it free enough to tear the outer skin of the roof free (along with the mast shoe).

The yard master told me this morning that he is hauling dozens of boats out, and that if Irma is a dead strike or even just south of us at Cat 5, having the boat out of the water or in will be of little consequence, and that the mast will likely come loose in Cat 5 or even Cat 4 winds. I was afraid that was the case before I even asked him. He agreed to schedule a slot for me to pull it. I will gain a couple benefits though. First, it allowed me to pull the trigger on this mast pull and allows me to repair some things I wanted to fix in the mast as well as that frustrating step issue.

The best part of the situation is that my Equinox is perched higher up than the storage area boats are, so if the drydock area floods, it will fill the lower areas for a bit. Equinox should remain dry and above water until the entire yard is otherwise pretty much completely flooded. The down side (for me) is that should that happen, she will be on an island and otherwise somewhat isolated from contact by me. At least it will keep other boats from impacting her? I am on a river, so it will be surge that gets her rather than direct winds, most likely (assuming winds are not terribly strong).

There is indeed another storm coming in afterward, and from what I am seeing, it is also ramping up, and on the same path. Funny thing about these storms, though, one makes a path for the next, but the atmosphere can get pretty churned up after one passes, and it can do very odd things to the track of the one following if the "trauma" in the atmosphere is significant enough.

The stronger storms seem to do more of this than weaker ones, so we may get lucky in Florida and the Southeast US, and the one following will pass by harmlessly with only some surf and light winds. It would be nice. However, there is ALSO another storm forming after that one too... I additionally saw a few tropical waves over the Cape Verde Islands, so... Nice tropical year, relative to numbers of storms, but not so nice relative to the damage they are doing.

In your prayers, remember that the Northeast US will be on the receiving end of much of this weather too, beyond initial impact, especially the fleets of ships in the Labrador area and across to the GIUK. The North Sea and bordering countries are definitely going to feel the aftermath of all these...

[skipmac]

The 2:00 forecast track shows the Bermuda High still steering Irma to the west. Over Key West Sunday morning, heading NW into the Gulf of Mexico.

No fun for the Keys but good for Miami and FL east coast if that trend continues.

[SailingFan]

Skipmac, as we are neighbors, roughly, I hope you are right on the one hand. I was considering several different progs and the one you are speaking of does keep her south, which will be bad news for the Texas and Louisiana shores (she will intensify if that ridge passes her and still influences her movement) given the amount of rain they have already sustained.

If that track holds true, we will not get hit so much up here in northern Florida, but will just get a lot of rain and some unsettled weather as the bands go over. I would be fine with that!

If she turns, though, the later it happens prior to the crossing of the Gulf Stream, the worse it will be for us in the Florida peninsula and especially the Carolinas and perhaps Georgia. Let's hope for the best and plan for the worst.

This will be an interesting and active season to be sure.

[skipmac]

Originally Posted by SailingFan

Skipmac, as we are neighbors, roughly, I hope you are right on the one hand. I was considering several different progs and the one you are speaking of does keep her south, which will be bad news for the Texas and Louisiana shores (she will intensify if that ridge passes her and still influences her movement) given the amount of rain they have already sustained.

If that track holds true, we will not get hit so much up here in northern Florida, but will just get a lot of rain and some unsettled weather as the bands go over. I would be fine with that!

If she turns, though, the later it happens prior to the crossing of the Gulf Stream, the worse it will be for us in the Florida peninsula and especially the Carolinas and perhaps Georgia. Let's hope for the best and plan for the worst.

This will be an interesting and active season to be sure.

From the lat/lon I guess you can see I'm in Green Cove Springs so yes, watching this very closely. Are you on the river also?

Some of the long range forecasts show Irma over Key West into the Gulf then curving back NE to make landfall around Tampa or Ft Meyers then NE across the state towards Jacksonville.

[SailingFan]

Originally Posted by skipmac

From the lat/lon I guess you can see I'm in Green Cove Springs so yes, watching this very closely. Are you on the river also?

Some of the long range forecasts show Irma over Key West into the Gulf then curving back NE to make landfall around Tampa or Ft Meyers then NE across the state towards Jacksonville.

I am currently on the hard in Gibson Drydocks, San Mateo (just south of East Palatka on the St. John's River).

I live in Gainesville at the moment, but will likely be moving closer to Putnam or Clay Counties after the New Year to be closer to the waterway. I have been to GCS a few times checking on Reynolds and the repair yard but decided on Gibsons because the cost of hauling out and storage there was so much better. Additionally, they had less crime because the people there watched our boats better than those south of GCS.

I have a permanent mooring north of Palatka, and have also got a friend with a dock who told me I could dock there with his vessels. I am possibly going to go that route after refit is done.

With the mast coming down tomorrow (hopefully) I should be able to really make some progress finally. It won't be long now before we are back in the water! Would love to visit some time, and missed the opportunity to see you and Sailorboy back when he was docked there near you. If I recall, he moved farther south now, but I am unsure. Is he still nearby?

[riggear]

Any news yet about Green Cove Springs Marina?