In case you haven't noticed - Baja cruisers

[zeehag]

ok baja cruisers--we are keeping these two for ourselves---not that we really wanted to --- so we will see what this phenomenon delivers.....ready or not, 1 2 3


rodl--we under both.. should have winds to about 35 kts--per normal.. should have some wet stuff from sky-- tis the season--- all will be essentially green. is already, but this is a gorgeous place, especially after rain.

btw--rain here is warm. is pleasant and cools the air--much less humid just after rain, and clouds are lovely--keep the temps to 85. without the clouds we get 95.

[Wrong]

Manuel has shifted westward.

"IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THERE IS SOME GUIDANCE THAT SUGGESTS THAT MANUEL COULD BE NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH BY THE TIME IT MAKES LANDFALL."

So, the unknown is what the system does after landfall, which appears to a shallow one at that.

[zeehag]

TROPICAL STORM MANUEL DISCUSSION NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132013
200 AM PDT SAT SEP 14 2013

GEOSTATIONARY SATELLITE AND MICROWAVE IMAGES INDICATE THAT MANUEL IS
ORGANIZING. THE CLOUD PATTERN CONSISTS OF A SMALL CENTRAL DENSE
OVERCAST AND A LARGE CURVED BAND TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
CENTER. ALTHOUGH MANUEL APPEARS A LITTLE STRONGER THAN IT WAS
EARLIER...ALL OF THE SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE UNCHANGED...
SO THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS MAINTAINED AT 40 KT.

MANUEL HAS BEEN NEARLY STATIONARY DURING THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS.
ALTHOUGH A FAIR AMOUNT OF SPREAD EXISTS IN THE MODELS...THE OVERALL
THEME IS THAT MANUEL...AND THE LARGE-SCALE GYRE THAT IT IS EMBEDDED
WITHIN...WILL BEGIN MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD LATER TODAY. THAT
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST UNTIL THE STORM MAKES
LANDFALL IN ABOUT 36 HOURS. OVERALL...THE GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED A
LITTLE TO THE WEST THIS CYCLE...AND THE NHC FORECAST HAS BEEN
NUDGED IN THAT DIRECTION.

STRENGTHENING APPEARS LIKELY UNTIL MANUEL MAKES LANDFALL DUE TO
GENERALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS AND THE CURRENT
STRUCTURE OF THE CYCLONE. THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS UNCHANGED
FROM THE PREVIOUS ONE...AND IS A LITTLE HIGHER THAN THE ICON
CONSENSUS MODEL AND LIES CLOSE TO THE LGEM GUIDANCE. IT SHOULD BE
NOTED THAT THERE IS SOME GUIDANCE THAT SUGGESTS THAT MANUEL COULD
BE NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH BY THE TIME IT MAKES LANDFALL.

IN ADDITION TO THE WIND THREAT...THE MOIST FLOW RESULTING FROM THE
COMBINATION OF MANUEL AND TROPICAL STORM INGRID IN THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE WILL PRODUCE TORRENTIAL RAINS AND LIFE-THREATENING
FLOODING OVER EASTERN MEXICO. THIS WILL REMAIN A SIGNIFICANT
HAZARD OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 14/0900Z 15.3N 102.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 14/1800Z 16.0N 102.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 15/0600Z 17.1N 103.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 15/1800Z 18.3N 103.6W 55 KT 65 MPH...NEAR THE COAST
48H 16/0600Z 19.3N 104.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
72H 17/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI





my coordinates-----oh yes--my coordinates--lol------rodlmao--- zees spot
Latitude:19.19524
Longitude:-104.68211

kinda right under the double bubble...interesting---max sustained winds should be 35 kts with gusting--shouldnt kill us--





@wrong---they promised us a swift demise (of the storm named manuel)..lol we will see what these two together do to mexico--if anything.

mainland mexico keeps baja safe from manuel...

[Wrong]

THE CYCLONE SHOULD BECOME A REMNANT LOW LATE ON SUNDAY OR EARLY MONDAY.

[zeehag]

i like the looks of these updates--not as nasty for us here in barra and manzanillo---

[JPA Cate]

Good luck with it, Zee.

Ann

[zeehag]

thankyou , ann. i already have my furycame music picked for the duration---it will be an interesting experience, as both storms are dying and might be that neither one poses a threat--warnings are to manzanillo, but that is only 20 miles south of us..manuel is spozed to be dying as he moves along our coast, but he is only a few miles inland---is 5-10 miles inland enough to dissipate a furycame, should that be what he becomes--- i know it could well dead the ts---we see this all the time, as ts formations and wannabes continue here this season--monsoonal trough is here, only a few miles off shore, and parallels the sw coast of mexico a few miles before splitting off to south pacific.
we are ready for winds to 50 kts--will have to modify only slightly if manuel is stronger than predicted.
shouldnt be too bad--we have weather all summer and i been thru worse. at least we arent sending another to golfo de california....yet

awesome---manuel is going to autlan--so we wont have anything over 35 kts unless a gust or two...lol---keep up the good work, nature!!!
mebbe it is my fans i have on high aimed at the storm system.....


i will take every 10 miles they give me and celebrate....

[Amnesia II]

Trust you, Bubba & Stormbird have come through OK Zee!?

[zeehag]

so far, so good--but it has only just begun....downgraded and max winds spozed to be 45 kts--we btdt here 12 times already, so......

next stop over water---models show some baja involvement, storm 2k is silent....
eebmike shows this---



anything can yet occur.

[rebel heart]

Just the moisture and low pressure headed up here I believe; nothing but a little check of how well my leak repairs have been going!

[zeehag]

storm 2k had discussed it growing again once it hits water, at banderas bay-- could be a possibility, so prep for worse and hope fro leak testing!!! heck for us it was a mating of twins that was cancelled, whew--so--never know until it gets there.

[zeehag]

http://www.eebmike.com/


ABPZ20 KNHC 171130
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT TUE SEP 17 2013

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF
MANUEL...IS PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ALONG THE WEST-CENTRAL COAST OF MEXICO AND ADJACENT WATERS. THERE
ARE CURRENTLY NO SIGNS OF A WELL-DEFINED SURFACE CIRCULATION...
HOWEVER ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE FOR
SOME REDEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM. THIS DISTURBANCE IS FORECAST
TO MOVE SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 5 MPH...AND BECOME NEARLY
STATIONARY CLOSE TO THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA
PENINSULA IN A COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM
CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

[zeehag]

Manuel is Back!

BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_RENUMBER_ep912013_ep132013.ren
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201309171920
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP

per storm 2k---and----

..MANUEL REGENERATES INTO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION...
...TROPICAL STORM WATCHES ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.6N 107.4W
ABOUT 75 MI...120 KM WSW OF MAZATLAN MEXICO
ABOUT 160 MI...260 KM E OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH ALONG THE
WEST-CENTRAL COAST OF MEXICO FROM MAZATLAN TO ALTATA. A TROPICAL
STORM WATCH HAS ALSO BEEN ISSUED ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE
SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM SAN EVERISTO SOUTHWARD TO
CABO SAN LUCAS.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* MAZATLAN TO ALTATA
* CABO SAN LUCAS TO SAN EVERISTO

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION MANUEL
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 107.4 WEST. THE
DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 6 MPH...9 KM/H...AND
THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR
TWO. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION IS
FORECAST TO REMAIN WEST OF THE WEST-CENTRAL COAST OF MEXICO DURING
THE NEXT 24 HOURS...THEN APPROACH THE EAST COAST OF THE SOUTHERN
BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR THURSDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS...AND THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM
TONIGHT OR EARLY WEDNESDAY.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB...29.65 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...MANUEL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE 3 TO 5 INCHES OF RAIN OVER
PORTIONS OF THE MEXICAN STATES OF SINALOA AND NAYARIT. IT IS ALSO
EXPECTED TO PRODUCE 5 TO 10 INCHES OF RAIN OVER THE SOUTHERN
PORTION OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM
AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS ARE COULD PRODUCE
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.

WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE WEST-CENTRAL
COAST OF MEXICO WITHIN THE WATCH AREA DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE IN THE SOUTHERN BAJA
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA WITHIN THE WATCH AREA BY LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...500 PM PDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 PM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN



TROPICAL DEPRESSION MANUEL DISCUSSION NUMBER 13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132013
200 PM PDT TUE SEP 17 2013

VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW THAT CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE
REMNANTS OF MANUEL HAVE BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED WITH MORE
PRONOUNCED BANDING OVER THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
CIRCULATION. A PAIR OF RECENT ASCAT OVERPASSES INDICATE THAT THE
SYSTEM ALSO HAS A WELL-DEFINED CIRCULATION...AND BASED ON THESE
DATA ADVISORIES ARE RE-INITIATED ON MANUEL. THE INITIAL WIND
SPEED IS SET AT 30 KT...IN AGREEMENT WITH THE ASCAT DATA AND A
COUPLE OF SHIP OBSERVATIONS OF 25 KT TO THE SOUTH OF THE CENTER
EARLIER TODAY. MANUEL IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN DURING
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WHILE IT REMAINS IN A LOW SHEAR ENVIRONMENT
AND OVER WARM WATERS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST LEANS TOWARD THE
HIGHER STATISTICAL GUIDANCE. AFTER 48 HOURS...INTERACTION WITH THE
BAJA PENINSULA AND THE INGESTION OF STABLE AIR FROM WEST OF THE
PENINSULA IS EXPECTED TO CAUSE WEAKENING. MANUEL IS FORECAST TO
BECOME A REMNANT LOW IN 3 TO 4 DAYS AND DISSIPATE SHORTLY
THEREAFTER.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 5 KT. A SLOW
NORTHWESTWARD MOTION AROUND THE SOUTHWESTERN PORTION OF A RIDGE
OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL UNITED STATES SHOULD CONTINUE DURING THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. AFTER THAT...THE CYCLONE IS PREDICTED TO TURN
WESTWARD AFTER IT WEAKENS. THE NHC FORECAST LIES BETWEEN THE
TYPICALLY RELIABLE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 17/2100Z 22.6N 107.4W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 18/0600Z 23.0N 107.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 18/1800Z 23.5N 108.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 19/0600Z 24.1N 109.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 19/1800Z 24.5N 110.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 20/1800Z 24.5N 111.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
96H 21/1800Z 24.0N 111.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 22/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

[rebel heart]

It's got it basically crossing right over La Paz as a depression; I think ~45 knot max winds or something to that extent but it's still a few days out.

The track, so far, has us in Puerto Escondido just catching some rain. Right now's slotted to shoot right through Bahia La Paz.

Oh well. In other news I had bird **** all over my bowsprit planks today so it looks like everything will get washed soon.

[Amnesia II]

Originally Posted by rebel heart

It's got it basically crossing right over La Paz as a depression; I think ~45 knot max winds or something to that extent but it's still a few days out.

The track, so far, has us in Puerto Escondido just catching some rain. Right now's slotted to shoot right through Bahia La Paz.

Oh well. In other news I had bird **** all over my bowsprit planks today so it looks like everything will get washed soon.

I'm sure we are all pleased to hear the rain will be doing a job to clean your bowsprit but let us spare a thought for the friendly peoples of Mexico who welcome thousands of visiting cruisers to their shores every year...millions are suffering, some drowning, from flash flooding at this very moment!