So it begins, Invest 92L and the 2023 Hurricane Season

[s/v Jedi]

Originally Posted by Zanshin

If one leaves with just 24 hours before an incoming system there's no room for error. What if it turns out the anchor is fouled and you need a diver? And I just spent the past 2 hours dodging fish pots (I'm off soundings now) - imagine snagging a prop in one and not being able to clear it. And then there are just 12 hours; and the winds are on the nose and you have no engine...

There's no upside to postponing implementing a plan, once made. I'd rather sweat in Grenada for a day, perhaps cooling off at a beach bar.

There are numerous spaghetti models, and the GFS and ECWMS models diverge significantly at the moment, so it makes no sense to choose one model over another at this point in time. Best to choose the worst possible one and plan accordingly.

The resolution of PredictWind and the models available there are pretty good. As are Windy and tropicaltidbits and others. Plus I come from a long background of aviation meteorology so can interpret raw data myself. Which is why I'm enroute now. I'll pick up fuel in St. Lucia - I broke my jib clew the day before yesterday and can't repair it easily, so I only have my mainsail and engine at the moment. If the new models get better, then I might take the dock spot they have reserved for me; but I still think I'll visit Grenada as I haven't been there before.

Again, you are the only one talking about leaving at 24h mark. And you keep repeating it even though this is already the second time that I am correcting you to say that I never said any such thing and every time mention 48h

Please stop posting misinformation.

Also, winds would be a beam reach to broad reach, nice 15kts. Avoid crab pots by staying further offshore instead of following coastlines close inshore. I mean all this is standard stuff.

[s/v Jedi]

Euro model data was updated 1-1/2 hours ago. It now shows the eye passing just north of St Vincent, moving a tiny but south from last update. Maximum winds for FdF in Martinique went up from 22kts to 25kts and gusts from 34kts to 38kts. This is because it blows harder further north of the eye.

[jalmberg]

After 40 years dealing with hurricanes and TSs in the Caribbean and east coast US, I am so happy to be in Europe for a few years. Good luck!

[s/v Jedi]

Note the 12 hour difference between the two models. Also, in Windy, see how they continue after passing…

[Zanshin]

Storms and predictions are about statistics and probabilities. You are cherry-picking your models to support saying that staying in place until 24 hours before arrival is better. It might be correct in this case, but for any chart you might produce historically to prove your point, I can provide another to disprove it. That's statistics.

Take a look a this live Marinetraffic chart. I've never seen such a mass exodus like this before, and those are just the boats with AIS transmitters; many more are going the same way that don't show up there.

I'm going to side with my gut feeling and experience and continue heading south. As are the good 100 boats in view here. Do you concede that they might be onto something?

[Nicholson58]

Checked 20 June AM. Looks like it will remain a tropical storm through the Antilles.

[Nicholson58]

Originally Posted by neilpride

You always have the last bullet, overnight to Trini.

We haul out in Chaguramas, Trinidad at Power Boats every season except COVIDs. Harbor is dirty for sure and frequent diesel spills. We make schedule and run for the lift well from the Bocas to minimize exposure.

Great services, nice people, excellent trades and prices and near zero storm worry. I bicycle to the rain forest daily and enjoy the excellent street food outside the fence. A visit to Chickie’s place by Peaks is a must. We get doubles through the fence and reheat with eggs for breakfast. Jesse James tours are excellent to Asa Wright, pan yard, scarlet Ibis, fresh markets, and Taste of Trini. This year we have seven Salty Dawg boats and many other friends in the yard. Dominos on Sunday, Bake and Shark on Thursday. Sundowners every day. We added a week in Tobago on our way south this year. Excellent! Trinidad is one of our most favored visits.

Dallas Stairway to Heaven watermelons

[s/v Jedi]

New update from NHC, showing danger has passed as it won’t reach hurricane status.

Still needing attention and final decision tomorrow morning.

[neilpride]

Marinetraffic , smarter boat, Cassiopeia , USA flag, taking the route south of the windward side of the islands.

Haaaaa, I see that some boats go between 9 and 12 knots speed in the lee of the island, they are in a hurry...

[s/v Jedi]

Originally Posted by Zanshin

Storms and predictions are about statistics and probabilities. You are cherry-picking your models to support saying that staying in place until 24 hours before arrival is better. It might be correct in this case, but for any chart you might produce historically to prove your point, I can provide another to disprove it. That's statistics.

Take a look a this live Marinetraffic chart. I've never seen such a mass exodus like this before, and those are just the boats with AIS transmitters; many more are going the same way that don't show up there.

I'm going to side with my gut feeling and experience and continue heading south. As are the good 100 boats in view here. Do you concede that they might be onto something?

You are persisting in the 24h claim. Are you aware that trolling is not allowed in this forum? Also, this behavior is not what defines a sailor. Grow up and try to learn something. I hope you enjoy the marinas you have booked reservations in. And FGS stop following the horde!

I will keep on updating this thread for thise who do want to learn how to deal with hurricanes. These are in all tropical cruising Mekkas and something you just need to learn how to deal with. If this storm doesn’t reach hurricane status, I will do a similar thread next one that will surely become a hurricane.

[s/v Jedi]

Originally Posted by Nicholson58

We haul out in Chaguramas, Trinidad at Power Boats every season except COVIDs. Harbor is dirty for sure and frequent diesel spills. We make schedule and run for the lift well from the Bocas to minimize exposure.

Great services, nice people, excellent trades and prices and near zero storm worry. I bicycle to the rain forest daily and enjoy the excellent street food outside the fence. A visit to Chickie’s place by Peaks is a must. We get doubles through the fence and reheat with eggs for breakfast. Jesse James tours are excellent to Asa Wright, pan yard, scarlet Ibis, fresh markets, and Taste of Trini. This year we have seven Salty Dawg boats and many other friends in the yard. Dominos on Sunday, Bake and Shark on Thursday. Sundowners every day. We added a week in Tobago on our way south this year. Excellent! Trinidad is one of our most favored visits.

Dallas Stairway to Heaven watermelons

Outside the fence? How about the Roti Hut . Wasn’t it Paul and Grace running that?

How about the Shark ‘n Bake!

[neilpride]

Don't be fooled by the strength of the forecast, someone remember Gonzalo, it was predicted to pass as a tropical storm and it passed as a cat 1 brushing 2, catching a lot of fools anchored in Marigot Bay sxm, and ended up all on the beach or rocks.

[jordanbigel]

Originally Posted by s/v Jedi

What you do by moving early, is putting your fate in a computer model, which I call withcraft. This computer model is known to be inaccurate and the average (average, not worst case) inaccuracy is depicted in the borders of “the cone”. This is why I wrote that the chance to be hit is equally big anywhere inside the cone.

Curious about this - I've always assumed that the distance from the center of the cone to the edges of the cone represent decreased probability of tack.

Therefore, the probability that the eventual track will be at the edge of the cone is lower than the probability that the track will be at the center of the cone.

If that is true, then the chance of being hit is not equal "anywhere inside the cone", it is lower at the edges.

Not claiming to be a meteorologist, trying to learn. Have I been mis-reading these cones all these years?

Also, I really don't think that probabilities are witchcraft. Maybe that was just intentional hyperbole?

[krid2000]

Originally Posted by jordanbigel

Curious about this - I've always assumed that the distance from the center of the cone to the edges of the cone represent decreased probability of tack.

There's an explanation of the cone on the NHC's website, just below the forecast charts, and a link to a more detailed page.

Excerpt:
Based on forecasts over the previous 5 years, the entire track of the tropical cyclone can be expected to remain within the cone roughly 60-70% of the time.

HTH
Dirk

[s/v Jedi]

Originally Posted by jordanbigel

Curious about this - I've always assumed that the distance from the center of the cone to the edges of the cone represent decreased probability of tack.

Therefore, the probability that the eventual track will be at the edge of the cone is lower than the probability that the track will be at the center of the cone.

If that is true, then the chance of being hit is not equal "anywhere inside the cone", it is lower at the edges.

Not claiming to be a meteorologist, trying to learn. Have I been mis-reading these cones all these years?

Also, I really don't think that probabilities are witchcraft. Maybe that was just intentional hyperbole?

Originally Posted by krid2000

There's an explanation of the cone on the NHC's website, just below the forecast charts, and a link to a more detailed page.

Excerpt:
Based on forecasts over the previous 5 years, the entire track of the tropical cyclone can be expected to remain within the cone roughly 60-70% of the time.

HTH
Dirk

Exactly. The cone shows the average error of the track itself. It’s witchcraft but they show the area where it really will be able to go… in 60-70% of the time. This means that 30-40% of the time the actual track goes outside the cone.

Many make this error, they think the cone presents the severity of impact. There is a graph showing probability of getting 50kts wind which is very useful.

So when the model gets it right more often, the cone becomes narrower. All kinds of factors that determine the track are used and when these factors are “weak”, the track prediction is not as reliable and the NHC will mention this and the cone goes wider. You see this when comparing tracks between models and they all show something different or with different timing.