Another 'above-normal' hurricane season forecast for the Atlantic

[HopCar]

There will be thirteen named storms, give or take two or three.

[zboss]

Originally Posted by 44'cruisingcat

Same here in Aus, get a "higher than average" forecast every year, and below average seasons for the past several.

Obviously if they keep forecasting above average, they have to be right eventually.

This is I think why the TSR is used so heavily by the insurance companies. They are much more accurate that NOAA as proven by their track record.

The TSR report says that "at this time" they expect a normal hurricane season. As always, they say that as the season progresses the accuracy of the report will increase. The May report is usually accurate to a large degree.

http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/doc...Season2017.pdf

[Mike OReilly]

It’s pretty useless when it comes to my decision whether to sail into the Gulf and St. Lawrence in August. This prediction is weighting ever-so-slightly that it will be a “normal” or “below normal” year for hurricanes. But there is a significant, although slightly lesser chance, the season will be “above normal.”

Like I say … pretty useless (and safe) as a prediction from any practical standpoint. With this prediction, they can’t be wrong. Any outcome is significantly possible.

[roverhi]

the important part is where the hurricanes go. You can have a million hurricanes and if they stay at sea where you aren't, they have no effect on you. I've been living in Kona for nearly 40 years and the storms have always passed well away to the south or north while dissipating and done little more than produce a bit of wind and rain on the other side of the Island. Last year two storms didn't dissipate much and made direct hits on the east side with one doing quite a bit of damage mostly from downed trees. On our side of the island it was just another ho hum summer, thankyou Mauna Kea and Mauna Loa.

So the frequency doesn't mean crap, except it does increase the chance that a Hurricane come to a beach near you. If they don't, it makes little difference what the predicted frequency is.

[ObracJ]

Has anyone ever been caught by surprise by a tropical depression, typhoon or a hurricane? I ask because I'm curious in learning how you coped with the weather, etc.

[StuM]

"Regression to the Mean" provides a large input in many prediction algorithms because, "Well, if this is average and we haven't been above average in a while, we got to have above average outcomes soon.

Originally Posted by leboyd

... but the law of large numbers easily says you will have regression to the mean.

You appear to misunderstand the concept of "Regression to the Mean".

To quote good ol' Wikipedia (yes, I know - but it's a clear statement of the phenomenon):

Regression toward the mean simply says that, following an extreme random event, the next random event is likely to be less extreme. In no sense does the future event "compensate for" or "even out" the previous event,

or to put it another way

" Specifically, it refers to the tendency of a random variable that is highly distinct from the norm to return to "normal" over repeated tests.

[Pelagic]

Those of us who have studied meteorology heavily know that Long Range Weather Forecasting is the Science of Variables.

In the past it was more of an 'Art Form' and far more Local.

What they can measure Globally now just amazes me as they compile increasing amounts of weather data at all Altitude levels down to the positions and strength of warm and cold currents.

But thier modeling programs are still lacking sufficient data to prove seasonal trends.
And even thier multi dimensional steering interactions with each other is still a really educated guess more than 4 -6 days out

Making ocean passages today on Superyachts is so much easier with the incredible info available but it is still your own Met Observations that fine tunes the passage with or without the help of a shore base service.

I prefer to do my own weather routing underway, because it keeps me focussed on trending observations to compare with the official prognosis

[valhalla360]

Originally Posted by zboss

The TSR report says that "at this time" they expect a normal hurricane season. As always, they say that as the season progresses the accuracy of the report will increase. The May report is usually accurate to a large degree.

This is like saying our prediction of who will win next weeks game will be more accurate late in the 4th quarter. Of course it will be more accurate because you will know what the score was in the first 3 quarters.

In terms of pre-season predictions it's little more than a wild guess and they skew the results to predict more storms.

[zeehag]

first address el nino vs la nina. there is a specific current that defines these. current is cold. therefore no el nino. might count on a weak la nina, however. the cold current is definitely present. has been present for over one full year, now. enso cycle seasons begin in may/june.
as for numbers--you folks might be affected by mebbe 3-4 storms in a season.
iff you are in caribbean. this lack of experience causes fear. fear causes chikkin little affect.
east coast usa probably gets 1 or 2, como normal. the atlantic storms tend to not bother many as they mostly go to open ocean or slam an island in midocean.
they do affect west coast europe with heavy weather as remnants often more seriously than usa coast is affected.
west coastal mexico is affected directly by 19 to 21 storms with names each summer cane season which is longer than east coast cane season.
once you have experienced more than a couple even at the fringes you know more about the effects of these beautiful formations.
it is easy to sit on ones desk chair and watch these form and grow--i watch underneath them so i can be aware of my weather as they happen.
as for being "surprised" by "sudden" cane--impossible as these are tracked from before birth to after their dissipation. surprise is only due to lack of awareness of weather. there is more than a week of formation that occurs before these are named much less slam your particular part of planet. and even then you may not be affected.
sudden is crossing a street and meeting the front of a bus. this doesnt happen with canes.
from tropical wave to full cat 5 cane takes more than one week. wake up and pay attention to your weather if you call yourself a sailor.
you are not a sailor until you know your weather. that knowledge will save your life. i learned this from early age from a real sailing capt not a store bought one. yes there is a difference. i learned this at an early age and began my weather lessons from 8 yrs of age.
seems as if it is past time for the wannabe sailors to learn their weather. as you cannot count on predictions to be accurate, even to the new fad enso cycling, of which there seems to be a discrepancy in predicting, one must learn to do it for self.
have a lovely cane season. i am looking forward to it.

[zboss]

Originally Posted by Mike OReilly

It’s pretty useless when it comes to my decision whether to sail into the Gulf and St. Lawrence in August. This prediction is weighting ever-so-slightly that it will be a “normal” or “below normal” year for hurricanes. But there is a significant, although slightly lesser chance, the season will be “above normal.”



Like I say … pretty useless (and safe) as a prediction from any practical standpoint. With this prediction, they can’t be wrong. Any outcome is significantly possible.

I think what the TSR is saying is that the curve is normal. There are no great weather features pushing the hurricane season to extremes.

[roland stockham]

Eh - that means a 55% chance of a normal or below normal season. Pacific forecast is for a quiet year as well so definitely better than last few.

[sailorboy1]

gee a thread with 2100 views and 40 posts about whether you should believe the weather guys long term forecast

[Jolly Roger]

I think there’s little point speculating and worrying about whether there will be more or less hurricanes coming your way this year. There’s nothing we can do to prevent them.
I am much more appreciative of the work the National Hurricane Center does in tracking the brutes, when they start heading my way!
The last one which passed close to my boat was Mathew last year, and The NHC was amazingly accurate with it’s predictions. We had two days warning to strip the boat and batten down, then an hour by hour report as it got closer.
We still sustained some damage, (see Southwinds magazine April 2017), but it could have been a lot worse without the detailed information of the track of the monster. Thanks NHC

[StuM]

Originally Posted by sailorboy1

gee a thread with 2100 views and 40 posts about whether you should believe the weather guys long term forecast

Not so much about whether you should believe them, it's more about what their forecast actually means. i.e whether they really have forecast an above-average season as alleged in the Title.

[HopCar]

Weatherbell forcasts 11 to 13 named storms 2017
https://www.aol.com/article/news/201...2017/22094003/

Accuweather forecasts 10 named storms
2017 Atlantic hurricane forecast: Possible El Niño to limit development of storms
2017 Atlantic hurricane forecast: Possible El Nino to limit development of storms

First 2017 hurricane forecast calls for below average season, 11 named storms
First 2017 hurricane forecast calls for below-average season, 11 named storms | Tampa Bay Times

I think I'll stick with the prediction I make every year, there will be 13 named storms, give or take two or three.