Boat prices after Covid 19

[pianopraze]

Anecdotally I'm looking at boats every day and the new ones on facebook market and craigslist seem to be lower now.

But correlation does not imply causation. They could just be boats that would have been priced lower anyways. *shrug*

Inflation from them printing so much money might cause the boat prices to go up also.

[chakil]

Originally Posted by Lake-Effect

Are you asking or telling?

As pointed out, there have been a few threads already... some just curious, others from disappointed vultures .

The boat market is so diverse that no single prediction will hold across all boat types and regions. I'm assuming you are mainly referring to big serious boats - eg monos and cats >= 40 ft.

Someone posted that the big catamaran companies had their factory order books filled for the next 3 years. You also have to consider that the people in that upper part of the market don't have the same financial pressures the rest of us have, so they can purchase whenever they like, and won't be forced to sell their boat to eat or pay rent.

So I'm guessing that those boat prices won't sag more than maybe 15 to 20% at the most, and the discounted ones will be gobbled up quickly.

At the moment, I'm more concerned about the US than Europe.

I am not really concerned about US as they will find the best solution for their ppl and the economy.
On the other side the catamaran companies may have their orders booked for next years which was an 5 year investment projection which deleted at least 2 years of their future income.
I think second hand market will crash at least %50 in 40-45ft range in Europe ,for the new boats they will have great offers just to survive the production and able to pay the salaries.
And the old production boats in 10 years range may not find any buyer whatever their price tag is.
I think the monopoly of the brokers are over by this pandemic , they will not be able to manipulate the prices anytime soon.

[chakil]

Originally Posted by pianopraze

Anecdotally I'm looking at boats every day and the new ones on facebook market and craigslist seem to be lower now.

But correlation does not imply causation. They could just be boats that would have been priced lower anyways. *shrug*

Inflation from them printing so much money might cause the boat prices to go up also.

Printed money just flow in the stock market .. And big companies got their pie..
No money will go to boat market.. But the real crash is on countdown , give it some time.

[Crusty Joker]

Chakil,

You may be right... economic prognosis short term is poor. Nice time to own your own green grocery land. Until one or more vaccines are proven and distributed globally. Then there will be a period of some growth for some of the people.

I suspect that this is the giant reset that will be with us forever after. I am not the pie eye in the sky, so I still plan on sailing some. Perhaps not in as grand a style as my aspirations.

There are just too many people that require too much wealth plundered from the earth.

I sell sea shells from the sea shore... organic vegetables and such.

Demand for health care, shelter, and food will remain high.

Luxury will always have its seekers and I am one.

[Hoodsail]

Define, "...after Covid 19" please. Given we've never seen this specific virus this may be ongoing for quite some time or it may fade away later this year....call me a pessimist but leaning toward the former....our big question is not boat prices-got one & keeping it til "death do us part". What about our Italian vacation this mid-Sept booked last December?! A deal as noone in their right mind will be vacationing in Italy this yr? Lots of room on the plane - out/back, same reason? And hey, we would be supporting an economy in desperate straights...downside, both of us in the high-risk class...maybe just extend our New England sailing season thru to October instead? Good luck in your boat hunt and economic ruminations..

[Dirk01]

Originally Posted by chakil

They are not..
Italy, Spain , France , Portugal were already in debt crisis before the Covid and now they are much worse .. As soon as the virus loses effect there will be social moves on the streets and people will ask for a referandum for Italyexit, Spexit, Frexit,Portexit and so on..
German will not keep on paying debts of other countries ..

IMHO as a German
1. Your right, Germany (including Austria, Netherland & some other mostly northern countries) won't pay debts of Spain, Italy and France (and not to forget Greece again).
2. The Brexit isn't over. It's still a disaster and no other country will try that again. At present the Britains will MUCH more suffer than the EU. That's where you're completely wrong.

[thinwater]

Or will people be so desperate to get out of the house they will all buy boats? Will the waters, perhaps, be unusually crowded by late summer? I know that many parks are now.

I have never found guessing other peoples motivations to be worthwhile. Let's wait and see how they actually behave.

[doog]

you trigger a real thought about usd/euro. Its clear our market crashed on the news and then lawmakers just poured money into corporate pockets until the market began rising again although orders are in the toilet and a third of the economy has no forseeable future. In Europe their pockets and ability to write checks out of thin air is far less than ours is..So the dollar will indeed remain strong until the real truth of vacant commercial property and urban collapse becomes obvious..

Im not seeing any end to this but when the death rate drops the news just goes to the number of cases which are created by testing those who have been positive since January with no ill effects..

These 'death rates' are people in nursing homes and in hospice and thats a place people often die..any opportunistic infection. But suddenly these are 'lives lost' when no..they're end of life deaths.

Anyway our economy is created by policy makers now..no natural forces but just govt checks. And my thought is to go to Europe and buy the highest quality European boat with the strong dollar while it still holds..

[Dirk01]

Originally Posted by anacapaisland42

I think the US$ will lose it's reserve currency status and then the USA will experience a depression like never seen before. China is on the sidelines propping it up and "smart currency" will head for digital safety.
Bill

Smart currency - nö, not yet or within the next 3-5 years. There are to many banks who would lose to much.
I guess the EUR will be the recent world currency in the near future. Stable and the Chinese loves Europe more than the US (I don't want to go the political road, but there's some kind of disharmony between Trump and nearly the rest of the world).
And yes, I agree that the US will slide into a (BIG?) crisis. It's not I wanna to happen, but that might be reality - faster than we think now.

[Dirk01]

Originally Posted by chakil

This year Spain will lose 300 B USD from tourism.. And maybe next year too if no vaccine.. Italy, Spain all depend on tourism income.. Social moves will start on the streets and politicians will play the exit card..

Exit Card? And from whom they will get the money to feed the folks?
No, no way.

[jmschmidt]

Chakil, you have it about right. Short term stable or higher prices, long term price colapse when charter companies and yacht builder dumps their current stock and production when owners and buyers fold their tents.

[jmschmidt]

Chakil has it about right. Short term stable or higher prices, long term price colapse when charter companies and yacht builder dumps their current stock and production when owners and buyers fold their tents.

[jmschmidt]

Gee, I don't know. Is it because the European Union is basically done for?

[Scaramanga F25]

so many SEERS on this site...lol

[Fore and Aft]

I am not sure which way boat prices are going just yet. Certainly in the last two months I have not surveyed any bargains. In fact I would say that the lower end of the market seems to be doing ok.
I have surveyed 6 yachts in the last two months brought specifically by people who are having a staycation this year. Some of these buyers are new to the scene and have no idea of the costs involved. But I think they will have their holiday and then offload the yacht? One buyer pointed out to me that maybe this would be the best year ever to sail the Whitsundays Queensland if the charter fleets are greatly reduced.

Cheers