Boat prices after Covid 19

[geoleo]

Originally Posted by larrymac

WOW!! What a lot it gloom and doom! Anyone seen a sunset lately? Spent some time with a favored grandchild? If we spend our time predicting the end of the world as we know it, we’ll stand a real chance of missing the roses, the love of families, and the promise that God is in control!
It HAS been traumatic, and the recovery, supported by those who are capable of looking at a half filled glass as half Full, will not only reap the ultimate benefits, but enjoy the positive aspects of their lives!
Let’s think on the optimistic side - and realize that if we are wrong, we will STILL have extracted some positivity from the journey.

Guys - I’m 74, have not one, but THREE life threatening diseases, and just found out my whole blood count is way low. HOWEVER, I arise with the sun, enjoy the companionship of my bride, try to be of service to those in my community and church, and am planning a cross country drive to officiate at the memorial for my just deceased mother in law - at which time I will see many family members I have not seen for years! Sure, we’ll be careful, and wear masks, but we need to enjoy the time we have left!
By the way, I hope that when I die, it will be by falling off the sugar scoop (either side is fine!) while relieving myself into the Gulf of Mexico!

Get a grip! Life’s too short to bemoan every little (or big) thing that comes along! Gather the lemons and make lemonade!
Just two cents from an old man!4

You are not 'old'

[barnakiel]

I think we are just venting off.


The trouble is we are all venting each their own. I, me, mine. The trouble is we are venting our silly fears and hopes.


I will die. And if not, can I afford a boat (just because her ageing owner kicked the bucket and his family is selling off grandpa's stuff).



We are talking about money a lot. We are talking about sailing less and less.



Meanwhile the challenge is elsewhere. It is not boat prices we did wrong. It is the glut of plastic rubbish (a.k.a leisure craft). Things we hardly need, hardly use and, in many cases, hardly own.


And forums and facebooks are perpetuating this attitude. Which Rocna or which Manson should I get (sponsored). Hell. Irrelevant. Are we talking sailing or are we taking each other on a shopping binge?



We got trained to finance our dreams, but we did not get taught to live them.


And it is the 74 years old, the 54 years old and the 34 years old gens that failed to teach us.


We have too much, we care too little. It is irrelevant if boat prices go up or down - for we will buy more toys regardless. Financed. And then abandon them in marinas, nearly as soon as we own them.


Dream big?



I say, it is not about having a big dream, it is about living the one at hand. By a Tophat, push it off the beach. Stop moaning about prices. Sail.



b.

[hpeer]

^ Fine rant there, I drink to that.

[Chotu]

[Thunderous Applause]

Originally Posted by barnakiel

I think we are just venting off.


The trouble is we are all venting each their own. I, me, mine. The trouble is we are venting our silly fears and hopes.


I will die. And if not, can I afford a boat (just because her ageing owner kicked the bucket and his family is selling off grandpa's stuff).



We are talking about money a lot. We are talking about sailing less and less.



Meanwhile the challenge is elsewhere. It is not boat prices we did wrong. It is the glut of plastic rubbish (a.k.a leisure craft). Things we hardly need, hardly use and, in many cases, hardly own.


And forums and facebooks are perpetuating this attitude. Which Rocna or which Manson should I get (sponsored). Hell. Irrelevant. Are we talking sailing or are we taking each other on a shopping binge?



We got trained to finance our dreams, but we did not get taught to live them.


And it is the 74 years old, the 54 years old and the 34 years old gens that failed to teach us.


We have too much, we care too little. It is irrelevant if boat prices go up or down - for we will buy more toys regardless. Financed. And then abandon them in marinas, nearly as soon as we own them.


Dream big?



I say, it is not about having a big dream, it is about living the one at hand. By a Tophat, push it off the beach. Stop moaning about prices. Sail.



b.

[letsgetsailing3]

Originally Posted by barnakiel

I think we are just venting off.


The trouble is we are all venting each their own. I, me, mine. The trouble is we are venting our silly fears and hopes.


I will die. And if not, can I afford a boat (just because her ageing owner kicked the bucket and his family is selling off grandpa's stuff).



We are talking about money a lot. We are talking about sailing less and less.



Meanwhile the challenge is elsewhere. It is not boat prices we did wrong. It is the glut of plastic rubbish (a.k.a leisure craft). Things we hardly need, hardly use and, in many cases, hardly own.


And forums and facebooks are perpetuating this attitude. Which Rocna or which Manson should I get (sponsored). Hell. Irrelevant. Are we talking sailing or are we taking each other on a shopping binge?



We got trained to finance our dreams, but we did not get taught to live them.


And it is the 74 years old, the 54 years old and the 34 years old gens that failed to teach us.


We have too much, we care too little. It is irrelevant if boat prices go up or down - for we will buy more toys regardless. Financed. And then abandon them in marinas, nearly as soon as we own them.


Dream big?



I say, it is not about having a big dream, it is about living the one at hand. By a Tophat, push it off the beach. Stop moaning about prices. Sail.



b.

Good point.


Now that we have that straight, what's the best bluewater boat with a sugar scoop, again?


I need something that I can sail with my family on weekends, but it needs to be bulletproof because I might cross the Atlantic one day!

[barnakiel]

Originally Posted by Mexdon

barnakiel "I expect even more AUS and NZ buyers to be booking flights to the Med towards the end of the summer"

I doubt it...neither citizen can leave their country and they may be allowed in time to travel between OZ and Kiwiland...to Europe is out of the question for quite some time...maybe years.

Why?


Do you say "NZ and AUS do not let us out"?


You know, Greece, Italy also Croatia have already announced they are opening up for tourism this summer.


Why would a Kiwi or an Aussie not be allowed to come and buy a boat there?


You will notice there used to be alot of blah blah blah by the politicians now however everybody says "we are opening up, PLS PLS PLS come and spend your money HERE"



So on the EU front you are fine. It can only be NZ or AUS govt ill will, if they say you can't.



barnakiel

[Colbud]

The Whitsunday charter fleet is booking out rapidly form late July onwards this year and i think they are expecting a bumper time for the next year due to limits on international travel. According to the owner, 90 % of whitsunday escape clients are domestic. Looking at their booking site they are very heavily booked already and the other companies seem to be following suit.

[mvweebles]

Originally Posted by letsgetsailing3

I read today that the stock market is 3% higher today than it was 12 months ago.


So the rumors of pristine boats selling at a significant discount may be a bit premature.

Really good point. My wife and I have separate finances and we're comparing damage assessments yesterday. I commented that I was down about 10%, but that's roughly where I was 1-year prior. While this ignores the massive unemployment, debt, and consumer friction within the overall economy brought by social distancing, our wealth index hasn't changed much, perhaps has improved as we have so few ways to spend discretionary money these days.

Sadly, economic effects of the virus thus far have fallen asymmetrically on lower income people. These folks are not the target market for cruising boats so perhaps not much changes in the resale market. I would surmise that while the stock market is not an ideal barometer of the economy, it is a good indicator of appetite for large discretionary purchases such as boats.

[Chotu]

Which is what I’ve been saying sine these threads started. It’s not affecting the boat market other than increasing demand.

[mvweebles]

Originally Posted by Chotu

Which is what I’ve been saying sine these threads started. It’s not affecting the boat market other than increasing demand.

Well, when the thread started, I was down at least 30%, so it felt a heck of lot different. Good to have a breather and reshuffle based on my view of future risk and opportunity. Didn't happen that way in 2008. For me at least in 2008-ish, my investment portfolio tanked hard and took a few years to crawl out of it's hole. Real estate too - everything sort of froze-up. But maybe that's just me.

[Chotu]

Originally Posted by mvweebles

Well, when the thread started, I was down at least 30%, so it felt a heck of lot different. Good to have a breather and reshuffle based on my view of future risk and opportunity. Didn't happen that way in 2008. For me at least in 2008-ish, my investment portfolio tanked hard and took a few years to crawl out of it's hole. Real estate too - everything sort of froze-up. But maybe that's just me.

True. But those feelings were based on fear (you weren’t alone). Nobody was looking at the boat market. The boat market isn’t an extension of the stock market. It has its own unique drivers.

People, after facing death, want to live and stop putting off their dreams. That’s the strongest factor involved.


And of course people in the boat market aren’t getting laid off from the local restaurant either. A lot of everyone on here really didn’t read this well. I don’t know why.

[Kimo_Kai]

Originally Posted by chakil

Hi fellow sailors,

I hope you are all fine and ready for a great season which seems cloudy right now.

I wish to hear your valued predictions about this situation on boat prices..

I have a few thoughts which I would like to share with you and wonder if you may agree ;

The boat prices will crash at least %40 on monohulls and %30 on multihulls, anyway there was a bubble on multihulls after the hurricanes , you may say it will be back to real value

Most of the charter companies will downsize or bankrupt ..

Sailing will not be so attractive for a period of time as the quarantine rules will be on practice until there is a vaccine

Charter companies or individuals who made some downpayment for new boats will burn the deposit and never deliver their boats, these boats will be overstock in the companies and will be on sale with big discount to create cashflow

Second hand market will try to keep the value until the flow from the big charter companies

At least 2 of the big 5 will close or change hands..

EurUsd will crash to 1 or 0,75 by the end of the year , where the real discount will occur

Interesting analysis OP! The fact of the matter, obviously, is that the answer to your question depends almost entirely on whether one presently owns a a boat or rather simply desires to own a boat in the near future.

The former will be, in most cases quite sure that your predictions are poppycock. The latter will clearly perceive your true genius.

I expect the boogie board market to remain quite stable so I stand with the former.

While a boat and a salary are two very different things, Upton Sinclair's words might fit the occasion:

“It is difficult to get a man to understand something, when his salary (or boat's value) depends on his not understanding it.”

I went big on my boogie board so I'm hoping you and this next article are dead wrong!

https://dailyreckoning.com/why-assets-will-crash/


Kimo
Marooned on Maui

[Tillsbury]

Originally Posted by barnakiel

Why?


Do you say "NZ and AUS do not let us out"?


You know, Greece, Italy also Croatia have already announced they are opening up for tourism this summer.


Why would a Kiwi or an Aussie not be allowed to come and buy a boat there?

barnakiel

Because if you allow outbound travel (even if you could go anywhere, or find the flights or support personnel to do it), then you would have the legal right to fly back again, and that’s an unacceptable risk for non-essential travel.

[arsenelupiga]

Originally Posted by chakil

Hi fellow sailors,

I hope you are all fine and ready for a great season which seems cloudy right now.

I wish to hear your valued predictions about this situation on boat prices..

I have a few thoughts which I would like to share with you and wonder if you may agree ;

The boat prices will crash at least %40 on monohulls and %30 on multihulls, anyway there was a bubble on multihulls after the hurricanes , you may say it will be back to real value

Most of the charter companies will downsize or bankrupt ..

Sailing will not be so attractive for a period of time as the quarantine rules will be on practice until there is a vaccine

Charter companies or individuals who made some downpayment for new boats will burn the deposit and never deliver their boats, these boats will be overstock in the companies and will be on sale with big discount to create cashflow

Second hand market will try to keep the value until the flow from the big charter companies

At least 2 of the big 5 will close or change hands..

EurUsd will crash to 1 or 0,75 by the end of the year , where the real discount will occur

last i have done calculations boat chartering brings way more investment return than air bnb. Also boat can be very cost effective home. Especially monos. Also there is next generation of retires ripened that will look for life different to old people care - they will want to skip that bit. I can see property getting deflated, but boats not so much. EURUSD down that much, not likely, but keep crossed fingers.

[Fore and Aft]

I am impressed Mvweebles how did you get seperate finances from the wife? My wife has always worked on the principal that what is hers is hers and what's mine is hers as well!
We are well into the Covid crises her in Queensland and I am busy as with people getting boats surveyed. $300,000 has been the biggest sale I have seen in recent weeks.
Cheers