Boat prices after Covid 19

[chakil]

Hi fellow sailors,

I hope you are all fine and ready for a great season which seems cloudy right now.

I wish to hear your valued predictions about this situation on boat prices..

I have a few thoughts which I would like to share with you and wonder if you may agree ;

The boat prices will crash at least %40 on monohulls and %30 on multihulls, anyway there was a bubble on multihulls after the hurricanes , you may say it will be back to real value

Most of the charter companies will downsize or bankrupt ..

Sailing will not be so attractive for a period of time as the quarantine rules will be on practice until there is a vaccine

Charter companies or individuals who made some downpayment for new boats will burn the deposit and never deliver their boats, these boats will be overstock in the companies and will be on sale with big discount to create cashflow

Second hand market will try to keep the value until the flow from the big charter companies

At least 2 of the big 5 will close or change hands..

EurUsd will crash to 1 or 0,75 by the end of the year , where the real discount will occur

[J.R.]

1. There are already some threads discussing the impact of Covid 19 on boat prices.
2. Why should EUR-US$ exchange rate crash? There is no reason, both are affected in the same ways.

[chakil]

They are not..
Italy, Spain , France , Portugal were already in debt crisis before the Covid and now they are much worse .. As soon as the virus loses effect there will be social moves on the streets and people will ask for a referandum for Italyexit, Spexit, Frexit,Portexit and so on..
German will not keep on paying debts of other countries ..

[Yatt]

Originally Posted by chakil

They are not..
Italy, Spain , France , Portugal were already in debt crisis before the Covid and now they are much worse .. As soon as the virus loses effect there will be social moves on the streets and people will ask for a referandum for Italyexit, Spexit, Frexit,Portexit and so on..
German will not keep on paying debts of other countries ..

Germany is not paying for anyone and it never did in the past. Germany was the big winner of the last EURO-crisis as it earned so much money from interest payments from other EU-countries. Check the statistics.

BTW the EU is a great project, the only (anti)social moves come from the far right and Nazi-Groups. So there is no reason to be scared as they have nothing to offer but hatred.

[LittleWing77]

Here you go, Chakil:

https://www.cruisersforum.com/forums...-a-233575.html

This is this past week's most recent thread on boat prices and Covid. There are already 89 posts. You'll get all your answers there.

If you look at the "New Posts" tab, you'll then be able to see if there's a recent thread already discussing your question.

Best wishes,
LittleWing77

[J.R.]

The so called "debt crisis" exists for ten years now. Compared to the US private and governmentals debts it is not a real debt crisis in Europe if you look at the total Eurozone. Germanys governmental debts went down from over 85% in 2010/11 to 60% of GBP in 2019. The crisis will rise the debts up to 75% over the next 3-5 years but that's a lot less than ten years ago. And there will be a sort of payment from Germany to the more infected countries like Italy and Spain.

[giorgio]

Originally Posted by chakil

Hi fellow sailors,

I hope you are all fine and ready for a great season which seems cloudy right now.

I wish to hear your valued predictions about this situation on boat prices..

I have a few thoughts which I would like to share with you and wonder if you may agree ;

The boat prices will crash at least %40 on monohulls and %30 on multihulls, anyway there was a bubble on multihulls after the hurricanes , you may say it will be back to real value

Most of the charter companies will downsize or bankrupt ..

Sailing will not be so attractive for a period of time as the quarantine rules will be on practice until there is a vaccine

Charter companies or individuals who made some downpayment for new boats will burn the deposit and never deliver their boats, these boats will be overstock in the companies and will be on sale with big discount to create cashflow

Second hand market will try to keep the value until the flow from the big charter companies

At least 2 of the big 5 will close or change hands..

EurUsd will crash to 1 or 0,75 by the end of the year , where the real discount will occur

Hi are you dreaming about buying a 1st class yacht Najad or Halberg Rassy for 3 cows and 5 sheep? Wake up its a nightmare !

[chakil]

Originally Posted by giorgio

Hi are you dreaming about buying a 1st class yacht Najad or Halberg Rassy for 3 cows and 5 sheep? Wake up its a nightmare !

I hope you don't have to sell your yacht for the cows and sheeps.
You have to eat anyway.. But as far as you are a sailor maybe you can survive for sometime with cans..

[Paul Howard]

Debt held by the public is expected (Congressional Budget Office Outlook) to rise from 78% of GDP ($16 trillion) at the end of 2018 to 96% GDP ($29 trillion) by 2028. That would be the highest level since the end of World War II.

The United States surpassed Italy on Saturday as the country with the most coronavirus deaths in the world, according to data from Johns Hopkins University.

So you think the U.S. is not in a debt and pandemic crisis?

[chakil]

Originally Posted by Paul Howard

Debt held by the public is expected (Congressional Budget Office Outlook) to rise from 78% of GDP ($16 trillion) at the end of 2018 to 96% GDP ($29 trillion) by 2028. That would be the highest level since the end of World War II.

The United States surpassed Italy on Saturday as the country with the most coronavirus deaths in the world, according to data from Johns Hopkins University.

So you think the U.S. is not in a debt and pandemic crisis?

You are right , how much is the total debt of the world? 246 trillion USD.
Every country needs USD and it will get hard to find after the real credit crunch which soon or later will happen.

[anacapaisland42]

I think the US$ will lose it's reserve currency status and then the USA will experience a depression like never seen before. China is on the sidelines propping it up and "smart currency" will head for digital safety.
Bill

Originally Posted by J.R.

1. There are already some threads discussing the impact of Covid 19 on boat prices.
2. Why should EUR-US$ exchange rate crash? There is no reason, both are affected in the same ways.

[chakil]

Originally Posted by anacapaisland42

I think the US$ will lose it's reserve currency status and then the USA will experience a depression like never seen before. China is on the sidelines propping it up and "smart currency" will head for digital safety.
Bill

Yes its a dream which never will come true..
Australia, US, Canada, Europe will all sue China and all the manufacturing will move to India.. Trump will win the elections.. EU will be over ..

[Stewie12]

Originally Posted by chakil

They are not..
Italy, Spain , France , Portugal were already in debt crisis before the Covid and now they are much worse .. As soon as the virus loses effect there will be social moves on the streets and people will ask for a referandum for Italyexit, Spexit, Frexit,Portexit and so on..
German will not keep on paying debts of other countries ..

It is highly unlikely that Spain would leave the EEU as it has benefitted greatly from being in it. Unlike the UK who have not.

[chakil]

Originally Posted by Stewie12

It is highly unlikely that Spain would leave the EEU as it has benefitted greatly from being in it. Unlike the UK who have not.

This year Spain will lose 300 B USD from tourism.. And maybe next year too if no vaccine.. Italy, Spain all depend on tourism income.. Social moves will start on the streets and politicians will play the exit card..

[Lake-Effect]

Originally Posted by chakil

I wish to hear your valued predictions about this situation on boat prices..

I have a few thoughts which I would like to share with you and wonder if you may agree ;

The boat prices will crash at least %40 on monohulls and %30 on multihulls, anyway there was a bubble on multihulls after the hurricanes , you may say it will be back to real value

Most of the charter companies will downsize or bankrupt ..

Sailing will not be so attractive for a period of time as the quarantine rules will be on practice until there is a vaccine

Charter companies or individuals who made some downpayment for new boats will burn the deposit and never deliver their boats, these boats will be overstock in the companies and will be on sale with big discount to create cashflow

Second hand market will try to keep the value until the flow from the big charter companies

At least 2 of the big 5 will close or change hands..

EurUsd will crash to 1 or 0,75 by the end of the year , where the real discount will occur

Are you asking or telling?

As pointed out, there have been a few threads already... some just curious, others from disappointed vultures .

The boat market is so diverse that no single prediction will hold across all boat types and regions. I'm assuming you are mainly referring to big serious boats - eg monos and cats >= 40 ft.

Someone posted that the big catamaran companies had their factory order books filled for the next 3 years. You also have to consider that the people in that upper part of the market don't have the same financial pressures the rest of us have, so they can purchase whenever they like, and won't be forced to sell their boat to eat or pay rent.

So I'm guessing that those boat prices won't sag more than maybe 15 to 20% at the most, and the discounted ones will be gobbled up quickly.

At the moment, I'm more concerned about the US than Europe.