Collapsing brokerage market for Monohulls

[geoleo]

Originally Posted by Caribbeachbum

In the last two years or so the brokerage market has been inundated with cruising catamarans, driving down the price.

I believe that the glut of catamarans is pushing down the price of monos as well, since (or so I believe) many people bought monos in the past simply because catamarans were out of their budget.

That is no longer the case. Now we can buy a nice, roomy 38-48' cat in the $200K zone.

We like sailing monos more, a lot more, even. But we're simply not willing to pay in that $200K range for a 46-55' mono when a catamaran is such a better liveaboard and now in the same price range (which is our budget for our "final" boat). If a monohull that we liked got marked down enough, however, that's what we'd buy, leaving us with a boat we love to sail and a fatter cruising kitty.

This is why I believe the market for monohull sailboats in the $150K-$250K range is almost immobile, especially when the boats are older ones. Or at least, in the process of collapsing. Sellers haven't realized this, though.

So my question is, well, there are two questions, actually. And I'm especially interested in hearing brokers' thoughts on this.

First, do you agree? I know I could have this all wrong.

And second, do you think sellers are interested in hearing what would be quite low-ball offers?

-

Dreamer X2

[ramblinrod]

Originally Posted by olaf hart

Many sailboats spend most of their cruising time motoring around, maybe the weather is too quiet or too strong, maybe they are meeting a schedule, maybe they can't be bothered.

We spend two months in the PNW this summer, there was no decent wind most of the time.

I can see the point of having a c dory up there.

Question, looking at used boats involves a fair investment in time and costs for a buyer even before survey.

How can you confirm a likely selling price before you have to commit time and money?

Perform a fair market analysis for that model in that locale. This involves considering the average sell price, and then assigning value adders and deducts for features this boat does or doesn't have in relation to the average.

If the average boat comes with 4 x ten year old Dacron sails, and this one comes with 7 x 2 year old composite sails, that is a significant adder.

Purchasers who don't care about performance, won't be willing to pay the full value of this adder, so don't target them, target the performance minded sailor.

If the average boat has a 20 year old diesel with 3000 hours, and this one has a 2 year old diesel with 300 hours, that is a very significant value adder.

10 year old electronics vs 6 months old, another adder.

No or ready for scrap canvas when average has 5 year old perfectly serviceable full enclosure, major deduction.

Most have diesels but this has a gas engine, major deduction.

So go through all vessel systems and elements like this, and you will come up with a fair market value for this boat. It should sell very close to this amount.

If the fair market value is close to the asking price, no problem. If the asking price is way high, you either won't get it, or the owner will come way down. If the asking price is low, buy it fast.

In this thread and others, many are complaining about inflated asking prices.

Remember that almost every boat is for sale, if someone comes along with enough money.

Many boats that are listed, the owner doesn't really want to sell. Maybe their spouse is pressuring, maybe their kids are suggesting they should retire, any number of reasons to list a boat well above market and never budge. They are probably tickled pink that nobody came up with a "reasonable" offer. Eventually the old curmudgeon will pass, and a friend will buy it from the spouse, or the kids will inherit it, either way it will sell fairly quickly for what is really worth.

An acquaintance in a slip just down from us, has had their boat "quietly for sale" for about 5 years. When they finally found the boat they wanted to move up to, the old boat sold in 3 months. Happens all the time.

[n13L5]

Originally Posted by seahag

Not that it's the first post on this thread that seems to be completely based on a personal theory, with no basis of reality, but that sentence about "There has been no currency collapse in history, where Governments didn't cover the bankers at the expense of their population."is actually hilarious. Where did you come up with that? Do you think the bankers of Nazi Germany were protected when Deutschmarks by the bushel couldn't buy a loaf of day old bread? How much did your investment in South Vietnamese currency pan out when they were overrun by the communists? Did the Argentine bankers come out smelling like roses when their currency plummeted? These come to mind without any research on my end, but I bet there are dozens more situations where a country's money became worthless and their bankers were probably as bad off or worse than the rest of the populace.

The part about war developing a profit generation--no.

Sure, war creates profits for the technology producers it requires, but the overall effect is not profitable, in fact the reverse. The Soviet Union's Afghanistan involvement weakened their economy so much it was blamed for the collapse of their whole system. Not that the US learned anything from that...heh.

There have been several posts about the middle class. I don't disagree with most of the premises in those posts or even in this one, just the way it's being presented. Do you actually believe that people in the middle class buy new cruising sailboats? Haha, that seems like a good laugh!

Anyway, have a good day everyone, I'm starting out chuckling in puzzlement.

You really thought international Bankers' profits are ever at risk in a national currency collapse? In the loosing country? There are dumb bankers, but don't underestimate the likes of Rockefeller, Morgan, Rotschild and others of their calibre, like Soros, a British-trained economic assassin with considerable influence over American politics, if you look into it.

Your examples only show, that you understand neither mechanism nor hierarchy involved. Yet you are arrogant and smug. But your fragments of hearsay about banking and the monetary system do not amount to the grasp of reality you think you have. Illusory concepts of reality lead to misguided actions and will not only be detrimental to you, but to your family and your country.

Nobody can educate you against your resistance to understand what you read or your belief that you have things figured out.


But I will give you President Wilson as a starting point to look into for yourself. "Starting point" for research, not the point where 'it' started by any means... you'll have to do considerable work to arrive at today, just from there:

. . .

Woodrow Wilson was elected President in 1913, beating incumbent William Howard Taft, who had vowed to veto legislation establishing a central bank.

To divide the Republican vote and elect this relatively unknown Wilson, J.P. Morgan and Rockefeller bankers played both sides of the election battle and poured money into the candidacy of Teddy Roosevelt and his Progressive Party to pave the way for Wilson's ticket to win. These sophisticated political maneuverings were unknown to our great grandparents, but today we are beginning to wake up to the truth.

Once elected, President Wilson enacted unprecedented changes to the Constitution. In the year of 1913, President Wilson signed the Federal Reserve Act and the Revenue Act of 1913, chaining all future Americans to the FED and the IRS. In order to make these acts binding and appear legitimate to Americans, President Wilson pushed through congress two Constitutional Amendments: the 16th and 17th Amendments.

After stepping down as President, he said this: "I am a most unhappy man. I have unwittingly ruined my country. A great industrial nation is controlled by its system of credit... all our activities are in the hands of a few men. We have come to be one of the worst ruled, one of the most completely controlled and dominated Governments in the civilized world, no longer a Government by free opinion, no longer a Government by conviction and the vote of the majority, but a Government by the opinion and duress of a small group of dominant men."

. . .

If you work your way through the history of banking and especially central banking, starting with the Venetian bank houses in the 13th Century, followed by the Rothchilds' rise from the 15th Century, and Great Britain's unwillingness to give up on their colony after loosing the war, you'll eventually be able to see the reality of money and its masters.

[jongleur]

Originally Posted by a64pilot

Fuel is relatively cheap, about half what is was just a few years ago.

... how long will it stay that way , I have no idea.

Just until I buy a powerboat...

For those saying buyers have a moral
obligation to sellers: Are you saying
you factor in the seller's predicament?
Do you ask? Why? Would you offer
less to someone who doesn't need the
money? How do you even know this?

How 'bout if you don't even make any
offer at all and the seller loses his
boat and his house? Don't you feel
bad then?

[daletournier]

Originally Posted by n13L5

You really thought international Bankers' profits are ever at risk in a national currency collapse? In the loosing country? There are dumb bankers, but don't underestimate the likes of Rockefeller, Morgan, Rotschild and others of their calibre, like Soros, a British-trained economic assassin with considerable influence over American politics, if you look into it.

Your examples only show, that you understand neither mechanism nor hierarchy involved. Yet you are arrogant and smug. But your fragments of hearsay about banking and the monetary system do not amount to the grasp of reality you think you have. Illusory concepts of reality lead to misguided actions and will not only be detrimental to you, but to your family and your country.

Nobody can educate you against your resistance to understand what you read or your belief that you have things figured out.


But I will give you President Wilson as a starting point to look into for yourself. "Starting point" for research, not the point where 'it' started by any means... you'll have to do considerable work to arrive at today, just from there:

. . .

Woodrow Wilson was elected President in 1913, beating incumbent William Howard Taft, who had vowed to veto legislation establishing a central bank.

To divide the Republican vote and elect this relatively unknown Wilson, J.P. Morgan and Rockefeller bankers played both sides of the election battle and poured money into the candidacy of Teddy Roosevelt and his Progressive Party to pave the way for Wilson's ticket to win. These sophisticated political maneuverings were unknown to our great grandparents, but today we are beginning to wake up to the truth.

Once elected, President Wilson enacted unprecedented changes to the Constitution. In the year of 1913, President Wilson signed the Federal Reserve Act and the Revenue Act of 1913, chaining all future Americans to the FED and the IRS. In order to make these acts binding and appear legitimate to Americans, President Wilson pushed through congress two Constitutional Amendments: the 16th and 17th Amendments.

After stepping down as President, he said this: "I am a most unhappy man. I have unwittingly ruined my country. A great industrial nation is controlled by its system of credit... all our activities are in the hands of a few men. We have come to be one of the worst ruled, one of the most completely controlled and dominated Governments in the civilized world, no longer a Government by free opinion, no longer a Government by conviction and the vote of the majority, but a Government by the opinion and duress of a small group of dominant men."

. . .

If you work your way through the history of banking and especially central banking, starting with the Venetian bank houses in the 13th Century, followed by the Rothchilds' rise from the 15th Century, and Great Britain's unwillingness to give up on their colony after loosing the war, you'll eventually be able to see the reality of money and its masters.

From what I've read in recent years id have to agree. When currency is only backed by debt inevitably the currency collapses. There becomes a point of debt saturation which effects everything including used boat sales. When future consumption is brought forward to the present there comes a time when a servicing the debt takes the money that would normally be allocated to other areas.
In free market's the big banks would be allows to fail just like any other business , but in an economy that is dictated to by central banks this will never happen.
An organization that controls a countries currency dosent care who writes the rules!

Sent from my vivo Y35 using Cruisers Sailing Forum mobile app

[olaf hart]

Originally Posted by ramblinrod

Perform a fair market analysis for that model in that locale. This involves considering the average sell price, and then assigning value adders and deducts for features this boat does or doesn't have in relation to the average.

If the average boat comes with 4 x ten year old Dacron sails, and this one comes with 7 x 2 year old composite sails, that is a significant adder.

Purchasers who don't care about performance, won't be willing to pay the full value of this adder, so don't target them, target the performance minded sailor.

If the average boat has a 20 year old diesel with 3000 hours, and this one has a 2 year old diesel with 300 hours, that is a very significant value adder.

10 year old electronics vs 6 months old, another adder.

No or ready for scrap canvas when average has 5 year old perfectly serviceable full enclosure, major deduction.

Most have diesels but this has a gas engine, major deduction.

So go through all vessel systems and elements like this, and you will come up with a fair market value for this boat. It should sell very close to this amount.

If the fair market value is close to the asking price, no problem. If the asking price is way high, you either won't get it, or the owner will come way down. If the asking price is low, buy it fast.

In this thread and others, many are complaining about inflated asking prices.

Remember that almost every boat is for sale, if someone comes along with enough money.

Many boats that are listed, the owner doesn't really want to sell. Maybe their spouse is pressuring, maybe their kids are suggesting they should retire, any number of reasons to list a boat well above market and never budge. They are probably tickled pink that nobody came up with a "reasonable" offer. Eventually the old curmudgeon will pass, and a friend will buy it from the spouse, or the kids will inherit it, either way it will sell fairly quickly for what is really worth.

An acquaintance in a slip just down from us, has had their boat "quietly for sale" for about 5 years. When they finally found the boat they wanted to move up to, the old boat sold in 3 months. Happens all the time.

Thanks Rod.

I am at the stage where I only want a boat that is sorted, and doesn't need work.

My question really is how can a buyer get some idea of an agreed price based on the advertised condition before travelling to see the boat?

[Paul L]

Originally Posted by olaf hart

Thanks Rod.

I am at the stage where I only want a boat that is sorted, and doesn't need work.

My question really is how can a buyer get some idea of an agreed price based on the advertised condition before travelling to see the boat?

Negotiate a signed contract contingent on inspection, survey, seatrial, etc. Then you have an agreed price.

[olaf hart]

Originally Posted by Paul L

Negotiate a signed contract contingent on inspection, survey, seatrial, etc. Then you have an agreed price.

That's one step further down the line, after the buyer has spent time and money looking at the boat.

I want to narrow the gap between advertised price and market price before I decide to look at the boat.

Lots of options in a buyers market, brokers and owners aren't helping themselves with unrealistic asking prices.

[ramblinrod]

Originally Posted by olaf hart

Thanks Rod.

I am at the stage where I only want a boat that is sorted, and doesn't need work.

My question really is how can a buyer get some idea of an agreed price based on the advertised condition before travelling to see the boat?

You can't know what an agreed upon price will be, until you both agree upon the price.

But to determine if it is worth your while to go and see it, perform the fair market value analysis, based on the listing, extra photos, inventory list, and survey you request. It should sell close to this value.

If he's asking $100K, the fair market value is $90K, and this is within your budget, you'll probably be able to make a deal, no problem, go see it.

If he's asking $100K but the fair market value is $50K, it is debatable whether you will be able to reach a price agreement. Ask leading questions, like how long has it been up for sale, how many people have come to see it, has he received any other offers yet. If it has been on the market a long time with no interest at that asking price, he may be willing to come down a fair bit. If it was just put on the market last week, likely not. If it has been on the market a while, he just rejected an offer for $90K last week, and declared his price firm, don't bother going, if you're not willing to pay more than fair market value.

If you think the boat is only worth half of what they are asking, don't go offering 50% sight unseen, to see what happens. 9 times out of 10, you'll be told to go stuff yourself because you have no idea what the value of the boat is, having not even seen it, and you are just trying to get something for nothing.

But if you carefully approach it, and lead them into talking about how firm the price is, you will likely be able to determine how flexible they may be. Why are they selling? They may be willing to accept a lower offer if they have already bought another boat, are in the middle of a divorce, it is an estate sale, ill health, etc.

[ramblinrod]

Another option, if the asking price is considerably higher than others that are currently listed (that are the same, year, make, model, location, condition and inventory) send them the links and ask them why theirs is priced so much higher?

If they have no answer, then ask if they would be willing to adjust their asking price more in line with these other boats you have just shown them.

You have just put them on the spot. They can either fess up that they were asking way too much and are willing to negotiate, or they can just close the door in embarrassment.

But if you don't do the fair market analysis, they may come back with, "Well, it has a new motor, new sails, new upholstery, new electronics, new canvas, and those boats don't, they all look to be in terrible condition, where ours is beautiful, so in fact, it looks like we should be asking more, thank you for showing us this." Now you look stupid.

[ramblinrod]

One last thing, if you are dealing with a broker, certainly ask all of the questions above, about why they are selling, yada, yada, yada, and then just ask, "What do you think is the minimum they will accept?" or, "What do you think the boat is worth?"

The broker and seller have already discussed this, and after some discussion he will likely tell you that value, plus 10%, to allow a little room for negotiation.

Again, don't blurt this out in the beginning. Have discussions with the broker about comparator model listings, and let him know that you know how to evaluate a boat properly, and then ask the question. Then he knows if he goes too high, you just caught him in the act.

[olaf hart]

Thanks again, I am using those strategies, amplified by the argument that travelling a long way to see the boat is only practical if I have a clear idea of the likely selling price.

My current boat really found me, we looked at it while searching for something else, and the owner kept calling with a lower price until we bought it.

It had a stripped out racing interior, so it was a bit of an orphan, didn't scare me or my wife, but we were obviously outliers.

[olaf hart]

The other interesting thing is I have bought all my boats for the last 25 years from owners, not brokers.

I sold them all through brokers.

I guess I get more information from buyers than from brokers.

[valhalla360]

Originally Posted by ramblinrod

Obviously, an offer close to what the boat is really worth is what they need. A low ball may be what they will take with the proverbial gun to their head. It is so easy to take advantage of some one and then to justify it, because they had no better alternative readily available to them.

Who's making this mythical offer and who decides what the boat is really worth?

The scenario you gave is the family needs money or they get the house foreclosed on. If someone makes your mythical offer at "what the boat is really worth", they will decline a low offer so no harm in making the low offer. Reality is 99% of the time, there is no mythical offer so the alternative is they get foreclosed on and likely lose the boat later as things snowball out of control. If they can keep the house, there is a better chance they keep their jobs and can struggle thru.

You are confusing a financial transaction with an act of charity. If you want to dig into the sellers situation and offer charity, good on you but don't confuse it with anything other than charity.

[valhalla360]

Originally Posted by olaf hart

Thanks Rod.

I am at the stage where I only want a boat that is sorted, and doesn't need work.

My question really is how can a buyer get some idea of an agreed price based on the advertised condition before travelling to see the boat?

Don't make a signed offer. Ask if they would consider a price maybe 50% lower?

How they respond will narrow the gap.

One thing with travel is the modern world can save you a ton of money. Ask them to go to the boat with their phone and turn on Skype (or other video phone app) and give you a live tour of the boat. This makes it hard to stage pictures and if there is something you want to see, you can ask on the fly. Zero travel costs.