Cyclone Debbie

[hoppy]

Debbie from the space station

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OxNl3RJ0Cgo

[44'cruisingcat]

Originally Posted by MarkJ

Wow! 101 knots gusts the last half hour! IN 2 different observations!

Plus its been gusting over 40 knots for the last 48 hours... so when people say you can always run away from a Cyclone/Hurricane, well, you need a long start.

The cyclone itself is actually moving quite slowly though.

Which isn't a good thing, as it just prolongs the pain for those in it's path.

[JPA Cate]

Originally Posted by DumnMad

We've had 80knot gusts in NZ and only rotten stuff got ripped.

Would you strip your sails off for 80knots ? or would your fear it might get to 100 ?

Yes, if at anchor, I'd be inclined to strip much sooner, even with a prediction of only 45 kn. The reason is that if the "fingers" of the wind get under the sail, it will shred them. Imho, one has to prepare for the worst expected, and never mind the extra work. Incidentally, we also have weather cloths, we would remove all the canvas.

In a marina, I probably wouldn't for 45, but I would be there with the boat, unless evacuated. Above that, sure, it's only effort, and it can save your boat. If you have two furlers, with sails on them, you can calculate how much force on the boat you can eliminate by taking the sails off: it represents a substantial reduction in windage.

If the boat is going to be unattended, I would double up on the dock lines and the fenders, and kiss the boat goodbye. They have had gusts to over 100--knots, the force of the wind goes up geometrically with the wind speed. It is hard to imagine, just how very strong it is.

We beat to windward in 45 sustained (gusts higher) to get to a cyclone hole, one time in Vanuatu for about 16 hr. It was unpleasant in the extreme, but we wanted the hole that had greater depth and less occupation, and so, bit that bullet.

Ann

On Edit: In the case of STC Debbie, I think it is reasonable to expect a great deal of marina damage, and the possibility of boat insurance rates rising as a result of damage to the charter fleets that shelter in Gullnare Inlet.

[MarkJ]

Levi Cowan of Tropicaltidbits.com says there will be a complete eye-wall by the time it hits the coast in a few hours.

Not good.

[downunder]

Details of Severe Tropical Cyclone Debbie at 7:00 am AEST:

Intensity: category 4, sustained winds near the centre of 175 kilometres per hour with wind gusts to 250 kilometres per hour.
Location: within 30 kilometres of 19.8 degrees South, 149.2 degrees East , 95 kilometres east northeast of Bowen and 65 kilometres north northeast of Hamilton Island .
Movement: west at 6 kilometres per hour .

Severe tropical cyclone Debbie is currently a category 4 cyclone and is forecast to make landfall between Ayr and Midge Point late this morning towards midday.

Eye wall of severe tropical cyclone Debbie now beginning to impact parts of the Whitsunday Islands.

[downunder]

Eye near Hayman Island

256 km Bowen Radar

Latest Weather Observations Hamilton Island

[MarkJ]

Another says maybe weakening. Not from BOM but a US based weather guy

First light - TC #Debbie stalled about 45 miles east of Bowen. Appears to be weakening prior to landfall. https://t.co/kpaAnCuRxT

[Ozbullwinkle]

The progress of the cyclone has now slowed. It was originally predicted to cross the coast around 8am but now not expected till round 1pm.

Hamilton Island has had wind gusts up to 196 Km / hour.

[downunder]

Originally Posted by MarkJ

Another says maybe weakening. Not from BOM but a US based weather guy

That would be good if weakening.

[kmacdonald]

Originally Posted by MarkJ

Another says maybe weakening. Not from BOM but a US based weather guy

They always do when approaching land. I don't know what the coast is like there but mountainous or hilly land masses will dissipate the winds significantly.

[Island Time O25]

What are the water temps around there? As these would be the big factor in its strength, no?

[kmacdonald]

If it stalls it will just hammer them longer. Maybe it's making a turn earlier than expected.

[Pelagic]

CNN just had some coverage from Airlie beach.. Pretty intense! They are NOT reporting that the storm has weakened while going over the shallow reefs, but has slowed down a touch.

Anticipating 600ml rainfall over the next day.

Trying to remember how many Cyclones Australia averages annually??

[TopHat]

Here is a different graph from Seabreeze in Aus, scroll down to Hamilton Is graph, just really picked up intensity, sustained SE wind 95kts, gusts 120 kts
https://www.seabreeze.com.au/weather...-central-coast

[StuM]

Originally Posted by Pelagic

CNN just had some coverage from Airlie beach.. Pretty intense! They are NOT reporting that the storm has weakened while going over the shallow reefs, but has slowed down a touch.

Anticipating 600ml rainfall over the next day.

Trying to remember how many Cyclones Australia averages annually??

About 10 in Australian waters, with 6 making landfall. Most of these are in the North-West. So on average 1 or 2 hit Qld each year. ( About 1/3 of them are classed as "severe")