Faith in Weather Forecast?

[Kenomac]

Originally Posted by fuentes

I agree with your point of view. The last 4 times we have gone out (5-10 days), we have gotten 5-6 ft. swells with 24-40 knot winds at one time or another (San Felipe south to Bahia de Los Angeles). We had been under these conditions and worse before, so we knew the boat could take it. We have also read up on handling these conditions. My 9 and 12 year old grand-daughters were scared the first time, so we hid in El Refugio for 3 days. This last time we got caught on our way back to San Felipe with nowhere to hide. After a couple of hours of this, they were jumping and making cart wheels on the front trampoline. This does not mean I was not concerned, but one does get a little more confident and learn to stay with it. Do not panic and head for the beach. The boat can handle a lot out in the open. Like some other cruiser said some time back. "The shore is where the rocks are".
Some time back I had invited some people to sail with me that said they had a lot of experience sailing. We hit this kind of conditions. He demanded I put him and his wife on the beach. I kept telling him I could not do it. The conditions would not allow it. 24 hours later we were in San Felipe, waited until noon. The winds died down and I was able to get the boat into the marina.
This is why your point should be taken seriously. I do not mean go out and look for a hurricane. But do not expect to be out there 200-300 miles and expect not to get conditions like this. Have a nice day.

Expanding your comfort zone, I understand completely.

One fellow who recently commented on my youtube storm video from last January, stated that we should have sailed around the storm or heaved to until the storm subsided....... The leeward shore 4-6 miles away is clearly visible throughout the video. I guess that would be the equivalent of your experienced sailing friends demanding to be dropped off on the beach. Some "experts" just don't have a clue.

Thanks for your contribution to this thread.

[Sulaire]

As i said nothing is written in stone, when we lived on the land we would go out sailing at the weekends or holidays, or mid week racing and take what we were given, and believe me in the north of Scotland we were handed our asses more than a few times.

Now we live aboard full time, we can sit and wait for the weather we want, that is the beauty of this life style; of course we can wait and go in a good window, only to be shafted, but thems the knocks, no one is to blame, mother N is unpredictable. We do not go anymore on a dodgy forecast, why would we? We do not have to be anywhere at anytime, the next island is not going anywhere... We tend to base passages on maximum sailing time, so as not to burn diesel.

We have nothing to prove to anyone, besides our cat does not like the rough stuff and i do not like cleaning up cat vomit😺

[RaymondR]

Originally Posted by boatman61

I like the tongue in cheek Aussie forecasters approach... "This is the marine forecast for today.. please remember that things could be as much as 50% worse/stronger than we say.."
Something I take very much as verbatim.

The ones I listen to say "Please be aware that wind gusts may be up to 40% greater than the averages given here and the maximum waves may be up to twice the height".

This came about after a disastrous Sydney to Hobart yacht race where some of the victims tried to blame the weather forecasters for their having continued racing into a localised, extreme low pressure area in boats where the design criteria are dominated by light weight vessels for maximum speed rather than outright survivability.

One should not forget that the coastal forecasts quit often cover stretches of coast hundreds of miles long and there can be local effects not accounted for by the models the forecasters use.

Considering that in Australia they are forecasting for about 6,000 or so nm of coastline much of which is very sparsely populated they actually do a reasonably good job down here.

[belizesailor]

Originally Posted by Kenomac

Oh my goodness, this thread degenerated fast.

Oh, he should check out the Central American weather gals... worth getting up early to watch!

[emoji48]

[belizesailor]

Originally Posted by sailorboy1

I went yesterday when the forecast an hour prior was 5-10 knots of wind. Within 20 minutes if leaving I had a reef in as the wind was over 20.

I consider forecasts as a guess if they say wind with be light. But if they say the wind/waves will be high I find that they are normally right. So if light forecast you just deal with it, but if bad forecast you should stay put.

Also GFS tends to under estimate winds. Some GRIB viewers have the ability to add a % fudge factor to compensate.

The wind barbs also represent a range, much like the Beaufort Scale, not an absolute.

[kmacdonald]

I have a great deal of faith in the weather forecast. After all, when was the last time you were blindsided by a hurricane?

[sailorboy1]

Originally Posted by Kenomac

How would you handle a "small craft warning" or a forecast calling for 20 knots gusting to 30? Is it a day to learn and have some fun, or a day to tuck your tail and not go?

I don't pay attention to small craft warnings and I already have learned the 20s gusting to 30s.

But wind speed is just 1 piece of at least 3 that I consider regardless.

[Kenomac]

Originally Posted by kmacdonald

I have a great deal of faith in the weather forecast. After all, when was the last time you were blindsided by a hurricane?

That's a good one!

[Don C L]

I believe 66.6% of all forecasts to be true 44.3% of the time.

[RaymondR]

Originally Posted by belizesailor

Also GFS tends to under estimate winds. Some GRIB viewers have the ability to add a % fudge factor to compensate.

The wind barbs also represent a range, much like the Beaufort Scale, not an absolute.

Since the Beaufort Scale was as much about sea state as wind velocity perhaps we would be better served by offshore weather forecasters using it rather than a range of velocities in knots?

[Kenomac]

Originally Posted by RaymondR

Since the Beaufort Scale was as much about sea state as wind velocity perhaps we would be better served by offshore weather forecasters using it rather than a range of velocities in knots?

Then what about the 55 knot blasts here in the Med with relatively flat seas? Or the choppy, steep seas we get here in the Med with maybe 30 knot winds. It looks nothing like the Beaufort scale and descriptions.

[daletournier]

I think it depends where your sailing. Back home in Australia I've found the marine forecasts to be reasonably accurate. The last couple of months on the west coast of Sumatra they were a complete joke. The prevailing weather systems were completely overpowered by the smaller but vicious and unpredictable local systems.
Im currently tired up in a marina, who looks at weather:-) what a joy!

Sent from my vivo Y35 using Cruisers Sailing Forum mobile app

[Kenomac]

I found myself this morning in an anchorage with predicted 10-15 knot winds for tonight, not the best holding, without a working engine, genset or refrigeration.

I was watching the forecast and worked on the fuel delivery issue all day. Finally got it sorted out at 6:30. Sucking in air via the genset fuel supply. What a day.... It's nice when I don't need to look outside for help.

People coming into the anchorage or nearby marina all day looking for shelter from a gale. I kept checking Perfectweather, only 10-15 knots. Maybe they know something I don't know, but I'm just glad to have the engine back online.

[Prairie Chicken]

I found myself this morning in an anchorage with predicted 10-15 knot winds for tonight, not the best holding, without a working engine, genset or refrigeration.

Sounds like a forecast for warm beer.

[Kenomac]

Originally Posted by Prairie Chicken

Sounds like a forecast for warm beer.

Nope, I needed to keep focused. Determined to fix it and not have to seek hired help, but didn't think it would take eight hours.