Fourth question: Can you avoid bad storms?

[-OvO-]

You can game this out on paper. Plan a passage, use your online tools like fastseas or windy.com, and then plot your course on charts based on reported wind speeds, directions, current, and sea state. You won't be *exact* but you'll be close. Then see how it goes. No cheating!

Of course, you won't be able to predict "on paper" whether or not the weather conditions you have "encountered" are truly dangerous or not, so instead, just set a threshold for yourself that you expect to be able to avoid. Let's say, you want to plan a passage that avoids wind gusts > 35 kts and seas > 4m. If you can avoid that, success. Otherwise, call that a failure.

Mind you .. there also needs to be a random element for unpredicted equipment failure. E.g. you thought you were moving to avoid weather but then your furler failed and your top speed is now 4 kts. Or, you're becalmed and need to move to avoid a cell but you've got crud in your fuel and your engine died.

Could make a diverting little tabletop RPG for the northern latitude sailors who are all moving indoors for the winter.

[Stu Jackson]

Originally Posted by river251

Thanks Stu.

>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>.

Every day, you again see ahead for 3-4 days.

Given this, can you see a big storm coming and then have time to move out of its way?

Depends on what comms you have for obtaining weather, there are many.

Depends on where you are, where the storm is coming from, how fast it's moving and what direction you want to go and where bail outs are, and how fast your boat can go.

I don't think outrunning storms is viable for sailboats.

Short story: it depends.

[fxykty]

Originally Posted by -OvO-

You can game this out on paper. Plan a passage, use your online tools like fastseas or windy.com, and then plot your course on charts based on reported wind speeds, directions, current, and sea state. You won't be *exact* but you'll be close. Then see how it goes. No cheating!



Of course, you won't be able to predict "on paper" whether or not the weather conditions you have "encountered" are truly dangerous or not, so instead, just set a threshold for yourself that you expect to be able to avoid. Let's say, you want to plan a passage that avoids wind gusts > 35 kts and seas > 4m. If you can avoid that, success. Otherwise, call that a failure.



Mind you .. there also needs to be a random element for unpredicted equipment failure. E.g. you thought you were moving to avoid weather but then your furler failed and your top speed is now 4 kts. Or, you're becalmed and need to move to avoid a cell but you've got crud in your fuel and your engine died.



Could make a diverting little tabletop RPG for the northern latitude sailors who are all moving indoors for the winter.

Those are very large area forecasts, even with 8km or or even 1km resolution. Smaller, localised weather events can ‘hide’ between the data points. The CAPE factor can help predict the likelihood of stronger weather events (squalls, lines of squalls) within the overall weather, but doesn’t pinpoint their locations.

It’s like using a small scale map of an area to plan a hike, that has 100m contour lines. An area may look like it has a gradual incline on the map, yet when you’re hiking along you find a 50m cliff that wasn’t shown at all.

I can’t speak for the North Atlantic, but in the South Pacific trade wind and westerly zones up to F7 is perfectly normal and gusts up to 50% higher in squalls are possible.

[S/V Adeline]

Originally Posted by Stu Jackson

Depends on what comms you have for obtaining weather, there are many.

Depends on where you are, where the storm is coming from, how fast it's moving and what direction you want to go and where bail outs are, and how fast your boat can go.

I don't think outrunning storms is viable for sailboats.

Short story: it depends.

Great answer!
I believe history has shown us the most memorable/disastrous storm stories have originated from forecasts that were just wrong. Unforeseen events make a force 5 actually a force 10 and nobody could have predicted it.
Just last week I was reviewing the documentaries of Fastnet and Hobart, so I don't remember which it was but DURING the storm, weather forecast was still calling for x, many hours after boats had been reporting actual conditions of XX. Forecasting has gotten better, but they still get it wrong about as often as they get it right.

[JPA Cate]

@ river251, et al:

The reason it isn't "settled" is that weather is so variable, and warrants different responses.

These days, you wouldn't risk setting out to cross any ocean if tropical storms were predicted. They are predicted well, and there's lots of advance warning.

When it is thunderstorm season, bands of thunderstorms travel along their paths, and their clouds give you advance warning, they are black, or with a weird greenish tone, and sometimes you can see the roll cloud coming. Sometimes, they have funnel clouds descending. AVOID! All useful as warnings to shorten sail.

Winter storms come along in fairly regular progressions, and may contain strong storms with their frontal passages.

So, you can plan the weather you leave in, and if you are good at reading the high level clouds, you get warnings. If you can receive grib files, you can view the same information the meteorologists, and then decide to not go where the worst of the weather is going. It can mean heaving to for a couple of days, or just slowing the boat way down. So, advice is study the weather.

Useful for squall avoidance is radar, because the radar shows you which way the squall is going, so you can choose which side of it to pass it on. Now, in the old days, we used to try to get into them, because, short on water, we wanted an extra shower and to collect water.

As you get more experience as a sailor, your confidence will build. We have a member, Boatman61, who does deliveries of boats from the Caribbean to Britain and Europe, and who has posted about what he sees in the sky and what he does to keep the boats (and crews) safe.

Once you've practiced handling your boat in bad conditions a bit, your inevitable encounters with bad wx will become handle-able. Go out and practice in bad weather long before you attempt to cross the Atlantic. It's nice to go home to hot showers and tasty take-out. One tends to get cold and salty in squalls.

Ann

[JPA Cate]

@ river251, et al:

The reason it isn't "settled" is that weather is so variable, and warrants different responses.

These days, you wouldn't risk setting out to cross any ocean if tropical storms were predicted. They are predicted well, and there's lots of advance warning.

When it is thunderstorm season, bands of thunderstorms travel along their paths, and their clouds give you advance warning, they are black, or with a weird greenish tone, and sometimes you can see the roll cloud coming. Sometimes, they have funnel clouds descending. AVOID! All useful as warnings to shorten sail.

Winter storms come along in fairly regular progressions, and may contain strong storms with their frontal passages.

So, you can plan the weather you leave in, and if you are good at reading the high level clouds, you get warnings. If you can receive grib files, you can view the same information the meteorologists, and then decide to not go where the worst of the weather is going. It can mean heaving to for a couple of days, or just slowing the boat way down. So, advice is study the weather. Make sure you have a means of receiving current wx info offshore. We use HF radio. There are other ways.

Useful for squall avoidance is radar, because the radar shows you which way the squall is going, so you can choose which side of it to pass it on. Now, in the old days, we used to try to get into them, because, short on water, we wanted an extra shower and to collect water.

As you get more experience as a sailor, your confidence will build. We have a member, Boatman61, who does deliveries of boats from the Caribbean to Britain and Europe, and who has posted about what he sees in the sky and what he does to keep the boats (and crews) safe.

Once you've practiced handling your boat in bad conditions a bit, your inevitable encounters with bad wx will become handle-able. Go out and practice in bad weather long before you attempt to cross the Atlantic. It's nice to go home to hot showers and tasty take-out. One tends to get cold and salty in squalls.


*****

As to the coast guard report about the thunderstorms (70 knots wind), their recommendation to have the VHF on a lanyard near to the captain, all depends on the area. Some places, the hand held VHF only has about 6 n. m. maximum range, and wouldn't receive warnings broadcast from farther away. If you have a masthead VHF antenna, your VHF range is about 25 n. mi. If there are repeaters, you can have very good VHF coverage, but you will need HF for radio crossing oceans, or Satellite based comms.

Ann

[Cheechako]

You can avoid storms, but not all bad weather is an actual storm and you will get nailed pretty hard eventually even on a good weather forecast.

28-33 knots Near Gale waves 13-19 ft, white foam streaks off breakers
34-40 " Gale (18-25 ft) waves Twigs breaking off trees,
41-47 " Strong Gale High waves (23-32 ft), sea begins to roll,
48-55 " Storm Very high waves (29-41 ft) with overhanging crests,

[ChrisJHC]

And don’t forget to keep a good eye on your barometer and whether the wind is backing or veering then deciding at what point you’re going to turn left or right (depending on hemisphere) to minimise the impact of what’s coming at you.

[river251]

Ah. Sailboats go 6 knots, and storms go 20 knots. That could be important.

I'll check out La Vagabonde, who I have watched some.

Originally Posted by fxykty

That sounds like a video game. Storms don’t move in straight lines nor at fixed speeds and they can be very large - just review some of the large hurricane tracks and look at the sizes of the uncertainty of their projected paths. You can decide to move in some avoiding direction at 5 or 6 knots, then the storm track changes and it comes at you at 20 knots.

You can plan to minimise the risks of meeting any storms through planning, as was discussed earlier. Certain times of years (often called hurricane season) have higher probability of storms, certain routes (Northern Atlantic in winter) have higher probability of storms, etc. Add in weather forecasts and you should be able to reduce the probability that you will experience a large storm to virtually zero for any particular route.

An example where ongoing very detailed weather analysis was used to avoid worse weather was used in the recent La Vagabonde delivery trip across the Atlantic - a shore-based router and several weather experts helped guide the boat around the various storm systems that they encountered, though they still got pasted a few times. However, that level of shore-based help is very expensive and not feasible for most cruisers most of the time.

It is possible to hire the services of a shore-based router for a particular passage, and typically you will have a couple of updates per day and a few days notice of worse weather. But, squalls and other very localised strong wind events due to fronts will happen anywhere and anytime, even within a large area forecast.

Part of your preparation is getting yourself and your boat ready to handle rougher conditions.

[sailorboy1]

Originally Posted by river251

Thanks Sailorboy. I'm specifically talking about crossing the Atlantic, on the way to cruise around the Mediterranean, or maybe someday, the Pacific. So that might be different than a three day trip....would that change your answer?

Thanks for all your help.

Not really. Then instead of a weather window you add the seasonal weather for that directions. Yes weather still happens, but an F13 event would be rare.

We have 100s of years of weather experience. **** happens, but can be mostly controlled by not being an idiot. Mostly never put up their storm sails, but fly their spinnakers regularly.

[Dsanduril]

For the most part in the modern era I think you can avoid storms, and I try assiduously to do so. But two years ago on a passage from La Réunion to South Africa we got handed our behinds. We left Réunion with a three-day window to get to the turning point south of Madagascar, where a frontal passage was forecast. We reached our turning point on time, and the front came through six hours later. All easy-peasy, we'd made our turn, the wind shift and strength were as predicted.

We were using a weather router and also downloading gribs and synoptic charts. The day after we turned a low popped up on the charts at about 24-25S and three days out. So we turned further south to get below the low. Then the low disappeared from all future forecast products. Nothing to see here. And we'd turned south to avoid it anyway.

Three days later the low formed directly over our heads and created a cyclonic storm. There was less than six hours warning from the charts or router. None from the gribs. And it formed between 28 and 29S. Right where we'd gone to get away from the possible formation near 24-25S. We ended up with about 4 hours with winds > 60 knots and two days > 40 knots. Probably the only saving grace was that with the formation happening literally right over our heads the sea state wasn't terrible for those wind speeds.

So, yes, I think in the modern era you can generally avoid the worst weather, but there are no guarantees.

[CarlF]

I once heard a presentation by a couple that circumnavigated never seeing a substantial storm (e.g. 45kt)

Their key were to plan their voyage using pilot charts to avoid areas during the months when storms and high winds are statistically more likely. This isn't as hard as it sound -- if you are willing to wait for the "good" season for each leg of your trip.

There are many good sources of pilot charts but the one I have is Jimmy Cornell's Ocean Atlas

https://www.paracay.com/cornells-oce...s-2nd-edition/

[Jim Cate]

Here's an analogy that might resonate with the OP:

When making trans-oceanic passages, one starts with the best short term forecast available, uses conservative planning plus the pilot charts to estimate likely wx beyond the f/c range and then departs. Most of the time the passage goes as expected with no unreasonable wx. But occasionally, an unexpected feature will pop up and smite them, and when that happens, one's preparation and storm gear will get the vessel and crew through without disaster.

Driving across the country, one checks the car out, plans a route, drives defensively and carefully, avoiding known danger spots (road hazards or traffic) and usually arrives at their destination without incident. But occasionally, a drunk will swerve across the center line and hit you. Hopefully your seat belts and air bags (part of your preparation) will save you.

You can't be certain that the drunk won't be there, just as you can't be certain that a storm won't impact a passage, but most folks manage that threat without much concern.

Jim

[UFO]

Originally Posted by Cheechako

You can avoid storms, but not all bad weather is an actual storm and you will get nailed pretty hard eventually even on a good weather forecast.

28-33 knots Near Gale waves 13-19 ft, white foam streaks off breakers
34-40 " Gale (18-25 ft) waves Twigs breaking off trees,
41-47 " Strong Gale High waves (23-32 ft), sea begins to roll,
48-55 " Storm Very high waves (29-41 ft) with overhanging crests,

That makes it look so ugly, but in reality a few variables can make a huge difference, such as depth of Ocean, how close to land you are and the direction you're sailing in regards to the wind. If you are close(ish) to shore in shallow(ish) water and beating in a Gale/Strong Gale then you are going to get smashed, on the other hand if you are in 100+M depth, offshore and sailing down wind then it is very different.


I have happily left the percolator brewing on the gas ring that it barely sits straight on in around a 6-7m swell gusting up to 43 and a solid mid to high 30's with the wind behind.

[Paul L]

The OP says with all the time in the world can I avoid storms. Turns out when making passages you do not have all the time in the world. Passages that are best taken at the change of seasons are tough to call a departure time. Leaving the US east coast for the Carib for example. This passage is usually done in Nov. You want to leave after the last likely hurricane and before the winter storms set in. Everytime you look at a weather prediction and decide it isn't right you put yourself more into winter weather.
Similar occurs when crossing the Atlantic West to east. You plan to leave after the spring lows have slowed and before hurricane season starts. Everytime you put off leaving you move closer to hurricane season.
Same occurs for passages between the islands and New Zealand.

That said, most circumnavigates have pretty limited engagements with storms.