Future of Hydrogen Fuel Cells to Power Your Sailboat

[geoffa]

Adeline,
We are having a heated agreement. Hydrogen will be delivered by ammonia used in a fuel cell and batteries will become irrelevant.
I was suggesting the key number is 1 cent/kwhr as the relative conversion cost becomes less relevant.
Take the politics out of the technology post carbon debate and we can power our boats at levels of functionality previously not contemplated. The scientists, engineers and the market will sort it out!!

[Wolfgang.Schau]

Let me share my opinion about hydrogen:
1) Hydrogen is not an energy source, but an energy carrier, it will have a great future.
2) Where it is used, in fuel cells, or combustion engines, it is super clean, the only waste is clean water.
3) It takes another energy source to produce hydrogen, i.e. renewable energies like solar, wind, geothermal, etc.
4) Yes, as of today, this process to produce and transport hydrogen is very complex and not very energy efficient, costly, but this will change as technology develops.
5) The use of hydrogen to produce electrical power with fuel cells is very matured. We used this since the late 60's for space stations like Skylab, Space Shuttle, Spacelab, etc.
6) It is a shame that we burn precious fossil fuels instead of saving it for the chemical industry.

Bottom line: If you invest in hydrogen today, you will pay a higher prices, combined with the hassle of high pressure tanks. In 10 years from now, this technology will have matured. Remember, what was the discussion about electrical cars 10 years back? Only freaks considered it. Now, they are well established and will dominate in another 10 years down the road.

[lestersails]

Originally Posted by Buzzman

Ummm...ooops....scroll down this link to Tilmouth Well Roadhouse and see they already have an EV charging point....

https://northernterritory.com/alice-...well-roadhouse

They will never let the facts get in the way of a good rant! Keep at it Buzzman!

[Adelie]

Originally Posted by seandepagnier

current tech for this and diesel would be about $40 per gallon which is still plenty as many people claim they burn less than 10 gallons in a circumnavigation

I haven’t researched this but that sounds plausible for current state of the industry.

[Adelie]

Originally Posted by geoffa

Adeline,
We are having a heated agreement. Hydrogen will be delivered by ammonia used in a fuel cell and batteries will become irrelevant.
I was suggesting the key number is 1 cent/kwhr as the relative conversion cost becomes less relevant.
Take the politics out of the technology post carbon debate and we can power our boats at levels of functionality previously not contemplated. The scientists, engineers and the market will sort it out!!

I’m an engineer, the market will never overcome the limits of physics and chemistry.

Whatever fuel comes next will be more costly than fossil fuels pumped out of the ground so people will economize. That means choosing more efficient and slower means of travel.

For short to medium term storage at small to medium scale a battery is more efficient than any fuel and will not be replaced, only supplemented.

So fuels will be used where batteries don’t have the capacity and direct supply (overhead power) is not possible.

Whatever the fuel chosen is it will be the product of electricity produced by solar, hydro, wind or nuclear. All those means involve cost of production for the electricity and efficiency losses at each step of production, storage and use of the fuel.

The only fuel that can really replace fossil hydrocarbons without any performance tradeoff is synthetic hydrocarbons and that will mean a price tradeoff.

[Buzzman]

Not necessarily. Rooftop solar PV + battery storage is currently line ball with grid provided electricity + on-costs of grid supply.

Battery prices are already falling.


Presently, my home PV prodiuces more power than I need on a daily basis, but as it's all produced in the middle of the day, I still need the grid connection to power the house at night.


The smallest battery I can buy is around 8kWh, for approx $10K installed.


The on-costs to grid supply are around $800p.a.



The offset cost of the approx 2kWh i use each evening - stove, lighting, TV, a bit of A/C in summer - is around $250p.a.


So I could "just about" justify buying a battery right now, and cutting the tie to the grid, and be no worse off, at least.


But I'm holding out till the battery proce drops a bit further, as the solar array costs have done.


My 12 yr old 2kW PV array cost me $4700 installed and operational in 2010.


I am regularly being offered similar quality systems of 6.6kW today for under $3K.


That's a third of the cost of my system....


If battery prices keep coming down, we soon won't need the grid at all, except for businesses and industry.


So they'd better start offering decent rate feed-in tariffs or there will be no incentive for anyone with rooftop PV to remain on the grid.

I get that boats are a different kettle of fish, but.....

[MicHughV]

this is an interesting thread....some years back, there was an Israeli company that was developing hydrogen fuel cell batteries for cell phones...this was before the advent of the Apple phone...I'm talking the flip-phone era...I remember seeing these batteries in Walmart...don't remember how long they lasted, but it was intended to be a " backup" battery...they even had a city bus that ran off these batteries...the company went on the NYSE, or maybe it was the NAZ, but I don't recall the name. They disappeared into obscurity, but the theory is still around.

[Hasbeen]

Buzzman 5 years ago I bought the LiPo batteries for my remote control planes for A$15 each. Today they range from A$25 to A$35 for the same battery. I wouldn't hold my breath waiting for them to reduce in price.

[Buzzman]

Different market. I'm quoting the purchase price of domestic batteries, price of which is falling due to increased volumes and competition. Various sites regularly update the price per watt, and it has been falling, slowly but steadily, for the past 5 years.

Reckon you're probably being ripped off....

[Adelie]

LiFePo prices are about to have a significant dip in prices, all the major technologies involved are coming off patent in the next year. That's why Tesla is changing.
I don't know whether significant will be 5% drop or 20% drop.

[Buzzman]

What do you mean "that's why Tesla is changing." ..????

[Adelie]

Tesla has been using “nickel-cobalt-aluminum-Lithium” ion batteries I believe. Whatever they are/ were using they are changing to LiFePo.

There’s a patent pool for LiFePo and most of the major patents are expiring.

[Buzzman]

Ahh, OK, I was aware Tesla had built/is building a huge LiPo factory....

Thought you meant that had changed for some reason!


This (Tesla factory) is also one of the reasons why battery prices are set to fall, as the vast majority of LiPo is being built for EVs, so a flood of cheaper EV batteries also means a flood of cheaper LiPo for home batteries, which Tesla also makes.


So the general prediction is that home batteries made of LiPo will also drop in price, again no-one knows by how much, but it ought to be a 'significant drop', as you say.



This is the main reason why I'm waiting to add a home battery.


While the economics / ROI "just" works for me at present, a drop in the installed cost of a decent size home battery will be the game changer for me.


If it gets below a $1/w the $$ add up for me. At present 'battery only' cost is around this, but the BMS and install adds 25%. So a 5kW battery is around AU$8K installed. If it drops to AU$5K I can justify pulling the trigger.


The other big issue is that most of the available batteries are sized for an 'average home', all of which use significantly more power than I do. A smaller battery is more than enough for my usage. I barely use 3kWh per day. So a 3kW battery would be ok, 5kW would be fine, and 8kW is overkill. 8kW is around $10-12K at present, which, frankly, I can't afford, but that's about the smallest battery available in Oz.


I'm currently saving towards this install at some point next year, or possibly the following year. Depends on how fast the competition ramps up and how fast the prices fall.

[Adelie]

Originally Posted by Buzzman

Ahh, OK, I was aware Tesla had built/is building a huge LiPo factory....

Thought you meant that had changed for some reason!


This (Tesla factory) is also one of the reasons why battery prices are set to fall, as the vast majority of LiPo is being built for EVs, so a flood of cheaper EV batteries also means a flood of cheaper LiPo for home batteries, which Tesla also makes.


So the general prediction is that home batteries made of LiPo will also drop in price, again no-one knows by how much, but it ought to be a 'significant drop', as you say.



This is the main reason why I'm waiting to add a home battery.


While the economics / ROI "just" works for me at present, a drop in the installed cost of a decent size home battery will be the game changer for me.


If it gets below a $1/w the $$ add up for me. At present 'battery only' cost is around this, but the BMS and install adds 25%. So a 5kW battery is around AU$8K installed. If it drops to AU$5K I can justify pulling the trigger.


The other big issue is that most of the available batteries are sized for an 'average home', all of which use significantly more power than I do. A smaller battery is more than enough for my usage. I barely use 3kWh per day. So a 3kW battery would be ok, 5kW would be fine, and 8kW is overkill. 8kW is around $10-12K at present, which, frankly, I can't afford, but that's about the smallest battery available in Oz.


I'm currently saving towards this install at some point next year, or possibly the following year. Depends on how fast the competition ramps up and how fast the prices fall.

The patents are ending so there will be no royalties to pay for the technology use. There will be a cost savings there.

The end of the patents is why more manufacturers are getting into making them. Which will likely create a cost savings thru economies of scale and/or competition.

[Buzzman]

That's what all the solar installers here are also predicting....!!

Why I'm holding my breath.


After what I paid for the PV array dropped by 2/3 in 10 years, if battereis do the same it actually makes sense to wait.


But this time I think the off-patent drp will hit before the competition-led-drop, but i'm hoping they both come together and there is a BIG drop in prices...!!