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zeehag · 05-10-2016, 10:03

the most currrent updates show no maine.
mebbe no baahhstaahhn, might go to sea to play with nicole,might not., depends on conditions.
east coast still getting prolly 3 mebbe strong 2, as cane is starting a time of possible intensification, following eye changes again.
the predictions are diffficult and barely accurate due to constantly changing conditions in the area.
that ts nicole isnot making mets life easy.

DivingOtter · 05-10-2016, 12:25

I hope it hooks out to sea. Here on the jersey shore, were still recouping from Sandy where myself and thousands others lost their homes. I cringe looking at the one spaghetti line showing it hitting between NJ and NY. That said, they claimed Sandy was going to hook east, but due to the Greenland block and the other low it joined with made it pull hard west. I called it about 5 days out and everyone laughed at me. Hauled my boat and put it in my aunts yard on high ground with no trees. When they finally called landfall it was too late for many to haul out. I remember salvaging boats that were literally stacked atop one another underwater.

tuffr2 · 05-10-2016, 16:53

The latest is Matthew will lose power in the Carolina's. But look out Florida, Georgia, S. Carolina, N. Carolina.

Right now Maine, and New Jersey look like they will be in the clear.

Hoping we do not end up with a pile of boats.

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CareKnot · 06-10-2016, 06:38

Warning. Increased probability of rant today. Please pass the soap box...

Not meaning to go too far off topic, but there are many poor souls in the coastal areas of Florida, Georgia and the Carolinas that are struggling to take care of their boats. Many are liveaboard cruisers looking after their homes. Then, just when they need it most, fuel, provisions, fresh water and a very specific spectrum of building materials and hardware items vanish.

In this day and age of computerized inventory controls and hyper-accurate supply and demand modeling, why is the southeastern United States running out of critical supplies just when they need them most? And why, in the name of all that is good, are the governors of these states NOT raising hell about it?

For about a week or more, there has been better than even odds that a hurricane would be in the neighborhood. That is more than enough time to ramp up shipping to regional distribution hubs for all these inventory items, but especially fuel, water and non-perishable necessities. These life threatening shortages happen in EVERY hurricane and it is a correctable circumstance that needs to be addressed.

zeehag · 06-10-2016, 06:52

supplies are into walmart in jax this am.. friend picking up last minute needs..
folks knew last week this was coming, i made sure i spread word as fast as possible. \seems folks like waiting until last possible minute then hoard all of the stores stocks.
what will be will be. is too late now.
the folks unable to leave the evac areas-- gonna have a tough time. there are so many who a)do not know about storm because of habits not conducive with living in reality,
b)stubbornness, c) poverty level income no gas and other awesomenesses...
btw--fuel stations ran out of fuel yesterday. impressive or what... perfection for population control, not so good for evacuating many thousands of folks running away from imminent danger.
i understand the procrastination stuff--i know i did that with patricia. oops i didnt die.
bu ti was not living ona beach or in a flood zone with advance notice to escape while the getting was good.
it aint good anymore.
is too late. be where you are and hunker goood. tape windows and tape blankets between that window and you. yes i have seen windows blow out damnnear on top of me and towards me as i watched the fun and games if patricia from alleged safety.
on a boat-- ha h aha ha ha make sure you are not gonna be holed by those pilings you tied your boat to. anchor from midships out into channel if on a T, and may you all survive intact. this is gonnabe a busy event. be safe be well and hunker early. or watch and see what happens...

tuffr2 · 06-10-2016, 06:52

Very good rant and very good point. I agree, go to the computer and plug in emergency numbers and let the supplies flow to the area that needs it.

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HopCar · 06-10-2016, 10:42

Phillip, it's not possible to stock enough of everything that people need to prepare for a storm that might come along once in ten or twenty years. At the beginning of hurricane season I go a little heavy on rope and fenders. Yesterday was the big get ready day in Miami. Everybody got what they needed to secure their boats. It might not have been the color rope they wanted or the exact fender they wanted but they got something.

The big box stores like Home Depot and Lowes actually start sending truck loads of plywood and generators a few days before a storm is scheduled to hit.

The real question is why do people have to buy this stuff just before a storm hits? I didn't need to buy anything to prepare for Mathew. Everything I need to prepare for a storm was purchased months ago. In fact I've had most of it for years.

Steadman Uhlich · 06-10-2016, 10:47

I have started a thread about Hurricane Preparation Videos that contains links to a Youtube video playlist with 40 videos related to preparing for a hurricane or tropical storm and what conditions may be expected.

Here is a link to that thread which contains a few comments and suggested videos I found particularly instructive on the issue of preparation:

Hurricane & Tropical Storm Preparation Videos Tips - Cruisers & Sailing Forums

scuba0_1 · 06-10-2016, 11:49

Updated tracks

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FSMike · 06-10-2016, 12:04

I was told a long time ago to always keep your boats tanks filled, the galley provisioned, and have everything you might need on board during hurricane season.

The idea was to always be able to cut and run if necessary, or to have adequate supplies if you were staying put.

After all, if you're going cruising you might be a really long way from your neighborhood Big Box Store.

CareKnot · 06-10-2016, 14:23

Hi HopCar,

This is not about predicting and responding to any one disaster. Nor is it about a cruising sailor's mandate to be prepared. It is about being responsive to the community just as the community is responsive to its residents - and visitors. Just look at the situation.

Hurricane season is not a surprise. Risk analysis is not a primitive discipline. The needs associated with these catastrophic events are well documented over a long period of time and are therefore statistically predictable. All manner of responses are planned to the nth degree. Our supply infrastructure is extremely robust; some say the best in the world. The question is not if there will be shortages, only why...

Whether you live on a boat or not, everyone knows that you will need fuel if you need to evacuate before a hurricane and that you will need drinking water if you decide to stay. But these are two of the scarcest commodities just prior to a hurricane and certainly scarce afterwards. It is not because we aren't capable of delivering them. It is not that we don't know that they are needed. It is not ability or time that is at issue here.

We are capable of moving the needed supplies and we don't have to create large stockpile to accomplish this goal. But we would have to tweak the supply chain to be a little more responsive and accept that in the case of landfall, there would be some material losses to the inventory. But if we are to demand this sacrifice then rightfully, it should be compensated.

It is for monetary reasons that inventories are kept as low as possible. This is the norm in the modern world of supply and demand. However, potential catastrophes are evaluated from a profit/loss perspective rather than community needs. Understandable when we consider that upper-management must answer to their stockholders demand to deliver a profit. So the situation will only change when change is monetarily incentivised by our elected civil authority.

Being a dyed-in-the-wool capitalist, I think that the tax burden placed on the citizenry by these disasters can be mitigated by incentivising industry, small business and community based organizations, to more fully participate in the pre-disaster supply effort and the post-disaster cleanup and recovery effort. This channels funds back into the hardest hit areas by providing jobs and utilizing local knowledge, talent and resources.

Do not presume that the captains of industry are incapable of temporarily warehousing adequate quantities of fuel, water, medicines, survival stores and nonperishable foodstuffs for a general region or moving it expeditiously from regional depots into a specific area under threat. Nor are they incapable of post-disaster supply, cleanup and repair efforts. Personally, I would rather pay them for their efforts than support any more of this one-size-fits-all bureaucracy.

But then again, what do I know?

Quote:

Originally Posted by HopCar

Phillip, it's not possible to stock enough of everything that people need to prepare for a storm that might come along once in ten or twenty years. At the beginning of hurricane season I go a little heavy on rope and fenders. Yesterday was the big get ready day in Miami. Everybody got what they needed to secure their boats. It might not have been the color rope they wanted or the exact fender they wanted but they got something.

The big box stores like Home Depot and Lowes actually start sending truck loads of plywood and generators a few days before a storm is scheduled to hit.

The real question is why do people have to buy this stuff just before a storm hits? I didn't need to buy anything to prepare for Mathew. Everything I need to prepare for a storm was purchased months ago. In fact I've had most of it for years.

CareKnot · 06-10-2016, 14:45

Btw, the latest projections have this one looping back around towards Miami by Tuesday or so. Matthew is getting too bizarre for words.

HopCar · 06-10-2016, 15:41

Phillip it is certainly an interesting discussion.
I think you are under the impression, bolstered by the media, that there are actual shortages of needed supplies in the USA prior to a hurricane strike. There isn't a shortage for anyone who follows the government and media instructions.

At the start of hurricane season we are bombarded with hour long tv shows and newspaper sections on hurricane prep. If people followed those instructions they would save themselves a lot of time and discomfort when an actual storm approaches.

The only thing that seems to actually run short before a storm are plywood and bottled water.

The big box stores actually do a good job of moving truckloads of plywood in prior to a hurricane strike.

Bottled water does become hard to come by in the hours before a hurricane strike. So what? Fill your bath tub. Fill your pots and pans. I've never heard of anybody dying of thirst after a hurricane.

After a hurricane hits, it is amazing how quickly business and government responds to supply needed goods. I was able to buy a generator three days after hurricane Andrew, a category 5, hit my home.

At least in South Florida we take hurricane prep pretty seriously. We have probably the strongest building code in the country. Many of our grocery stores are equipped with generators so they can be open the day after a storm. The same is true of gas stations.

This makes stockpiling prior to a storm less critical. Unfortunately other parts of the country are not as well prepared.

The current storm looks to spread damage over hundreds of miles of coast starting about Melbourne and going up into South Carolina. This is going to make the response very difficult as it covers such a huge geographic area.

**a64pilot** · 06-10-2016, 15:49

You have to think though that there is a significant percentage of a population that think they have no responsibility, it's the governments responsibility to ensure their needs are met.
I have never lived way up North and had to drive through deep snow, but you can bet if I ever did, I'd have a sleeping bag, bag of cat littler, some food and water in the trunk and likely never let my tank get below a half a tank of fuel.
If you live in Florida and are not prepared for a Hurricane, why in the world aren't you?
The age of self sufficiency and looking after your neighbors may be coming to an end.
FEMA didn't exist until 1979, what did we do before FEMA?

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