Heavy weather, can we be honest?

[Palarran]

Fish stories by fisherman who constantly troll for their catch smell the worst.

[sailorboy1]

Originally Posted by Palarran

Fish stories by fisherman who constantly troll for their catch smell the worst.

perfect

[estarzinger]

Originally Posted by Paul L

The ECMWF model is freely available at http://www.windy.com

Is there a way to get an ECMWF grib file from windy.com.

Their GUI is pretty, but you can't important it into a routing program (unless there is a file export somewhere?). And its pretty high bandwidth, so not really usable over satphone (or other expensive or low bandwidth services like international cell roaming or really poor wifi).

GFS you can easily (and for free) get in compact file format which you can analyze with the good 3rd party routing programs and download reasonably efficiently over low bandwidth connections. I (still) have not seen a way to do that (for free) with ECMWF - unless you know somewhat to get a file from Windy?

[Paul L]

Originally Posted by estarzinger

Is there a way to get an ECMWF grib file from windy.com.

Their GUI is pretty, but you can't important it into a routing program (unless there is a file export somewhere?). And its pretty high bandwidth, so not really usable over satphone (or other expensive or low bandwidth services like international cell roaming or really poor wifi).

GFS you can easily (and for free) get in compact file format which you can analyze with the good 3rd party routing programs and download reasonably efficiently over low bandwidth connections. I (still) have not seen a way to do that (for free) with ECMWF - unless you know somewhat to get a file from Windy?

At this point we use ECMWF and GFS with an Internet connection and GFS offshore. Windy does not have export capability from its web UI.

I primarily use ECMWF to compare the longer range time frames with GFS. If the two are close, then I have some faith in the GFS and can use it in a routing program. If they diverge significantly then don't I have much faith in either.

[barnakiel]

Originally Posted by Paul L

At this point we use ECMWF and GFS with an Internet connection and GFS offshore. Windy does not have export capability from its web UI.

I primarily use ECMWF to compare the longer range time frames with GFS. If the two are close, then I have some faith in the GFS and can use it in a routing program. If they diverge significantly then don't I have much faith in either.

If I remember correctly, SQUID offered ECMWF when we tested it here.

I did not find the model any better than the US models and having played with it for a little abandoned downloading. Their files came in grib2 format and back then not all my software read the format.

There is also at least one public site in France that offers ecmwf downloads. It was posted at CF some time back. Maybe search will get it for you. Try.

Plenty depends on what you understand by longer. Imho beyond 48hrs the models are fun to watch in any dynamic environment. For practical reasons, I personally apply very low weigh to anything forecast beyond 96hrs frame.

Cheers,
b.

[Paul L]

Originally Posted by barnakiel

If I remember correctly, SQUID offered ECMWF when we tested it here.

I did not find the model any better than the US models and having played with it for a little abandoned downloading. Their files came in grib2 format and back then not all my software read the format.

There is also at least one public site in France that offers ecmwf downloads. It was posted at CF some time back. Maybe search will get it for you. Try.

Plenty depends on what you understand by longer. Imho beyond 48hrs the models are fun to watch in any dynamic environment. For practical reasons, I personally apply very low weigh to anything forecast beyond 96hrs frame.

Cheers,
b.

Longer range I mean in the 4 to 10 day range. If the two models divirge significantly then I have a low confidence in them. While you can say that all models have low reliability​ out that far, when you are making a 1,000 mile passage it's what you have to work with.

[barnakiel]

I have found data available for downloads here:

https://donneespubliques.meteofrance...id_rubrique=30

to be above and beyond less precise models. It was already available maybe in 2012 when we revisited the other side of the pond. I compared vs. RIP gibus and the French files were more precise.

In French places, I believe this is either a gfs/ecmwf/et al mash, or else a French jumbo bamboo that is excellent in French Antilles and absolutely priceless in e.g. the Societies. I did not use this data in NC but my friends do and they like it.

The world model may be pure gfs though. In any case the sources/models are given in the attached descriptives.

Mind there is also a page 2 there.

Cheers,
b.

[barnakiel]

Originally Posted by Paul L

Longer range I mean in the 4 to 10 day range. If the two models divirge significantly then I have a low confidence in them. While you can say that all models have low reliability​ out that far, when you are making a 1,000 mile passage it's what you have to work with.

Clearly!

There are different needs, different nav areas and different personalities.

We must use all available sources, judge which ones work best for us and then try to make hopefully best choices. Too much information is hardly ever bad. No information is at times lethal.

Wx routing is so much like investments. And my partner immediately laughs (she knows I am a lousy = scary investor, one look at our boat tells the nearly whole story). But at least all my clients are still alive! (I no longer invest but I still wx route people around the world).

I can only wish I had good and multiple sources available while offshore. Today with sat phones and wx services built into toys like InReach and Go we are so much better off than what it was all about when we started.

I have browsed my bookmarks but possibly lost the one leading to my French ecmwf download page. I will search the other laptop later maybe it was there. But I am sure I found the link here at CF, max one year ago.

Hugs,
b.

[Hasbeen]

It must be so much easier today, with sat nav & weather information.

I had been in the little cyclone that caught me in the Solomon Sea for 20 hours in 1976 before the first mention of it anywhere. That was on the Queensland cattle sales market report on our national radio north Queensland network, at 6.00 am Oz time, not a place most sailors in the islands would be tuning in to.

I then had to wait another 40 hours before I was game to start sailing, as with no sun, I could not get a sight. I finally got a sort of position with radio bearings on Honiara, Rabaul & Cairns commercial radio. This was over about 5 hours as the stations faded in & out of reception, so not too confidence inspiring.

I used to give daily thanks to the Hawaii time signal to correct my time for sights, as it was the only reliable aid available out there those days.

It had its advantages too. When you are the first visitor other than the copra boat to sail into a small town, or a plantation in 5 years, the welcome mat is huge. In some island groups it was not unusual to have canoes coming from villages miles away looking for fishing line, hooks & tobacco. You could damn near buy the whole village for $10 worth of trade goods.

[Nightcrawler]

Originally Posted by Mike OReilly

This will be interesting...

I have only twice sailed in sustained winds in the upper 30s/low 40s. Once was off the coast of Vancouver, heading north, sailing a Valiant. The other was on Lake Superior sailing west in my Rafiki. Both cases the duration was about six/eight hours. And in both cases boats and crew did fine, but it was not what I consider fun.

I know there have been a few more days in the upper 20s/low 30s, but only a few more. The vast majority of my sailing time has been done in under 20, and all too often in the under 10 or even 5 knot range.

I am usually content to wait out bad stuff if I can. I don’t seek heavy weather sailing, much like I don’t taunt a bear. I know how to handle both if/when I encounter them, but it’s not something I look for or enjoy.

Thanks Mike for some confirmation. I grew up on the Great Lakes and was told by my ins. co. and many non GL boaters, "they're no big deal" compared to blue-water sailing. They can be, and it doesn't take long. 50 years on the water I have been in two utt buggly events out there, none of merit since moving to the east coast in '09. We've traveled in two tropical 'storms' and yeah it was windy, but the water never really got moving.

[ka4wja]

Just located my old track (from 2007) on-line...showing some of the course change I made to avoid the heaviest weather...
Notice my dip to the SE and then East (north of Bermuda) instead of continuing the great circle to Azores....



Fair winds...

John

Originally Posted by ka4wja

<SNIP>


--- Full Gale, on an eastbound Atlantic crossing....lasted about 30 to 36 hours...(F8 / 35+ kts for ~12 hours, then built from F8 to F9 quickly, and then quickly to F10, and then held at 45 - 50kts, for 6 - 8 hours, then back to F8 or so, for another 12 hours....) Before this seas were the usual 8' - 10' swell, but built quickly to 20' - 24' and although I was in really deep water (100 miles north of Bermuda, heading to Azores) we did have some breaking waves / tops of waves were being torn off by the wind, not because of ocean-bottom friction....
This was the only time I've experienced breaking waves on the open ocean....sure near shore all the time, and entering harbors, etc. it's normal....but out in on the high seas, in deep water, breaking waves are rare....and this is the only time I can remember actually being in these, for many hours...
{oh, and BTW, this night (always happens at night, you know!) is when my damned autopilot drive bracket came loose and the drive decided to take the night off and rest in the bottom of my lazarette!!!
Hand steering through this Gale was a pain....but doable!!
Took until late the next day for weather to subside enough to allow us to empty lazarette enough, to get inside and make repairs....which we did while sailing under reefed-main and improving weather....temp fix lasted until it loosened-up again just about 150 miles from Gibraltar....final fix in Gib has last 10 years and another crossing just fine!!}
If I had been 100 miles further north to northeast, or worse 200 miles further northeast, this would've been a F10 storm for 24 - 30 hours... (I have to give thanks here to NOAA/NWS ocean prediction center meteorologists on my WeFax, and to Herb Hilgenberg, who showed this building Low / storm, and allowed me to decided to turn east and then southeast, to avoid the worst of this!! Even though I was heading to Azores, I made the decision to change course to avoid the worst of this, and glad I did! FYI, ironically just a few days later we were almost becalmed!!) and even though we were not in F10 for too long (6 - 10 hours, as I recall), I did have my big 16' Fiornetino parachute sea-anchor and rode, at the ready to use if I decided it was needed, which it wasn't...
<SNIP>