Here We Go Again

[Tellie]

Tropical Storm Ana emerged in the central Atlantic at 5 a.m. and now, as of 11 a.m., we have Tropical Depression 3 in the eastern Atlantic.

Ana is our immediate concern, as the forecast track puts the storm at South Florida's doorstep either late Wednesday or early Thursday. We are already in the cone of uncertainty.

The track likely will shift a bit in upcoming days. It already has been nudged to the south since the 5 a.m. advisory.

Still, we need to watch it closely. It is forecast to grow into a strong tropical storm within five days, meaning it holds potential to intensify into a hurricane.

At 11 a.m. today, Ana was 920 miles east of the Leeward Islands with sustained winds of 40 mph. It was moving west at 16 mph.

Tropical Depression 3 also bears watching.

It is aiming generally at this region as well and is projected to intensify into a Category 2 hurricane with 100 mph winds within five days. At that point, it should be near Puerto Rico, the National Hurricane Center says.

Expect this system to become Tropical Storm Bill possibly later today.

Tropical Storm: National Hurricane Center names first storm of the season -- South Florida Sun-Sentinel.com

[s/v Moondancer]

Safest place in that area is in the mangroves in Gables waterway just south of Miami/Coconut Grove. Went through Katrina and Wilma in there without a scratch. Only one of the 50+ boats there had any significant damage and that was because his stern anchors had insufficient scope and they held the stern down and the 6-8ft surge flooded the stern.

That is why we are in Trinidad...very reluctently

[Hud3]

Here's a good site for keeping up to speed on what's happening in the tropics:

Tropical Weather : Weather Underground

Dr. Jeff Masters does a great job of explaining the meteorology in an understandable way.

[imagine2frolic]

I am always relieved when they point the cane directly at me on first call. It always seems to go someplace else.So Tellie you are problably ok on this one at least......i2f

[zeehag]

www.stormpulse,com and Atlantic Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook

have good stuff about this mayhem we are watching.......

[osirissail]

Most of the tracks and projections you will be seeing are based on historical "normal" behavior of Tropical Storms. Any forecasts outside 3 days have a huge margin of error. Look at the teardrop NHC projections and you can see that far out - 3+ days - you are talking "somewhere in the Southeastern US or maybe hit the islands maybe go north." But such "weather guessing " is very valuable if highly inaccurate. It takes time to prepare, finish up "disabling the boat" projects, and finding places to hide out. The fact that something is coming is more important than the exact path.
We use super computers and fancy modeling software to make these predictions but there is a reason she is called Mother Nature and not Father Nature. She does not read our computer models or need to follow our predictive textbooks. She does what she wants to do - as witnessed in the last few years by "circling" hurricanes, reversing direction hurricanes and all manner of weird behavior. Just like she is having some fun with our "experts."
But with the new satellite images, GRIB files projections, and GFS modeling forecasts we can now track, update, revise and track again while preparing ourselves and our boats. I would venture huge numbers of boats and lives have been saved by our current system, though somewhat inaccurate and sometimes downright wrong.
The biggest danger is to folks who seeing all this "high-tech" expect Mother Nature to absolutely follow the projections and do not make reasonable preparations and have a plan of action for variations.

[George Wade]

Originally Posted by osirissail

Most of the tracks and projections you will be seeing are based on historical "normal" behavior of Tropical Storms.....

Interesting that in Japan the forecasts are only of the cone of possibilities / probabilities style for the track. Rainfall is carefully forecast as that is the greatest danger. Wind strength is forecast as a caution. When I watched both US Navy predicted tracks and the Japanese TV I got the best combination forecast.

When computer models are used to show how much off 'Normal' the present hurricane is likely to be, and why, you get a good understanding of it all.

Why not go to Madeira or Portugal for the season and tele-commute? We all are sailors, aren't we? Ok. I'm upgrading skills: does that count? Tried to italicise the Viking, but he's hard headed and wouldn't do it.

[hellosailor]

"Ana is our immediate concern, as the forecast track puts the storm at South Florida's doorstep either late Wednesday or early Thursday"

And the TV Nooze were helping to panic their viewers by showing how Home Depot was piling up generators for quick sales because of this storm. But, the forecasts show it as just a tropical storm and not a particularly strong one, not hurricane strength at all, blowing probably through the Keys.

It's storm season in Florida, and Ana is just another storm, so far. No need to push the panic button.

[bvimatelot]

Hud - How did you fare in Anna? I saw it over Guadeloupe last evening on Leeward Is radar and its sort of crossing below us at the moment - nothing exciting - just grey skies and gusty winds. She's being downgraded to-day. Bill seems now to be taking a much more Northerly track and shouldnt really worry us too much - excepts its a pretty large system! Tony

[gholmes]

Bill's more a worry for those of us in Bermuda

[zeehag]

gotta love yellow journalism!!! i hope you in bermuda are ok--be safe and keep dry--billy boy looks evil....goooodluck!!!!