Inboard engines and a changing world

[geoleo]

Originally Posted by Chotu

One of the reasons the fuel is so expensive right now, not the only reason, but one of them, is that the oil companies are not investing in opening up more. They see all of this writing on the walls and they are not putting money into it anymore. They are paying better dividends now instead.

Not quite . I follow the Oil and Gas journal news . Oil producers are rolling in record profits and making new discoveries world wide daily. They have plenty of $ for continuous exploration and are spreading new fracting tech worldwide too.
Peak OiL" isnt hardly mentioned anymore. They are truly in the 'drivers seat' as fossil fuels will become more valuable seemingly forever.

[geoleo]

Originally Posted by Adelie

It’s the same as all high speed rail including California’s. California’s high speed rail is slated to start service in 2029.
Most of Europe’s regular rail runs on overhead catenary.

California s High Speed rail is a huge super costly joke. I retired from one of the main contractors on it.

[newhaul]

Originally Posted by Statistical

Most electrical vehicle charging happens overnight. Rarely are there blackouts at 2:30 AM. 25% of new light duty vehicles sold in CA in 2022 were plugins (plugin hybrids plus all electric). It is happening although the change is going to take decades.

How quickly people forget
https://www.foxweather.com/weather-n...-cars-heatwave

[RaymondR]

Not going to read the 269 previous posts to see whether someone has already made the suggestion, but:

We're all going to have to get boats that sail better and become more patient.

[Statistical]

Originally Posted by newhaul

How quickly people forget
https://www.foxweather.com/weather-n...-cars-heatwave

From your link emphasis mine.

With temperatures expected to be upwards of 30 degrees above average in most of California, the state's Independent System Operator asked residents on Wednesday to limit use of major appliances, avoid charging electric vehicles and turn off unnecessary lights between 4 p.m. and 9 p.m. when demand is highest.

Peak demand is usually between 4pm and 9pm most BEV charging is overnight. Asking people to reduce demand (all demand not just BEV) one day for a four hour period is not the death of BEVs.

The transition to BEVs is happening. It is going to take decades but it is happening. 22% of new vehicles sales were plugins in 2022. A number that five years ago skeptics would have claimed is impossible. It is going to be much higher in the future. 26% of new vehicle sales in China were plugins. 19% were pure BEVs. It isn't slowing down.

[Mickeyrouse]

Whether you like it or loathe it diesel is going to be with us for sometime, if for no other reason than the installed base. 18 wheelers are a long way from conversion to electric as are construction and farm equipment. Then there’s marine. The thousands of tugs and fishing boats are exclusively diesel powered. I am aware of discussions being made to convert ocean-going ships (tankers, container ships, etc) to retrofit with methane fuel. But that’s not close either. Some articles I’ve read on the matter seem to imply that the hardware - the engines- in methane conversions would not change but the fuel and related tankage would be the major change. Kind of like converting your gasoline gen set to propane. Change is possible, perhaps even likely, but my money says our present diesels will wear out before it all happens.

[derfy]

Some hard numbers to contemplate...

Enough gasoline is pumped every day in the US to fill 25 million passenger cars.

If we assume 10 million of these are now electric, and needed to be charged on, say, a Sunday night in August, using Level 2 home chargers (~10 kw) for about 8-12 hours, this will add a night time load on the US grid of 100 Gw. Right now, the Base Load at night is about 400 Gw in the US in Aug.

So, in the middle of the night in August, we will need another 100 Gw. Will that come from solar? Well, some rocket scientist decided on a green strategy where we convert to cars that need charging at night, and to power our grid with the sun. Such a cleaver plan.

To work, the grid would need as need as many batteries as the EVs have to do this job at night with solar. That is assuming the sun shined that day.

How about wind? On average we generate, hour to hour, 60 Gw from wind. This varies from near zero to several times more, hour by hour, day by day. Is the wind blowing on Sunday night for 10 hours?

To actually handle charging 10 million EVs on a Sunday night in August will mean upping our Base Generation – nuke, coal, and gas – like China is doing. This means 66 new nuke plants at 1.5 Gw each, or 200 new fossil plants at 500 Mw each. Without these, the grid will crash, every night.

You will be told not to charge your EV, and the utility will want to use your EV battery to charge other peoples EVs at night. In fact, it will really not be YOUR EV.

Get ready to pay and pay more. What a great strategy.

[Statistical]

Originally Posted by derfy

Some hard numbers to contemplate...

Enough gasoline is pumped every day in the US to fill 25 million passenger cars.

If we assume 10 million of these are now electric, and needed to be charged on, say, a Sunday night in August, using Level 2 home chargers (~10 kw) for about 8-12 hours,

The AVERAGE car does not need to be charge for 8 to 12 hours at 10 kW. That is 120 kWh or 360 miles assumming an average of 3 miles per kWh. The average driver doesn't drive 360 miles a day (1.3 miillion miles annually).

The AVERAGE car will probably be driven 30 miles and so need to topoff with 10 kWh. Spread out over 8 hours that is an average loan on the grid of 1.25 kW. If they use a 10 kW charger they will be done charging in an hour not 12 hours.

I would add the transition is going to happen over the next 40+ years so the annualized growth rate in demand on the grid is downright tiny. Even IF California & EU bans new ICEV in 2035 (CA allows 20% PHEV in its "ban" BTW) that is just new vehicles. Lets assume that doesn't get delayed or water down. New sales are only about 5% of the fleet. It will be another decade before BEVs are half the cars on the road and 20 years before they are 90%+ and probably another decade before the last of the vehicles get replaced.

So yes the grid will have to handle all vehicles on the road being BEVs ... in 2065. All the doom & gloomers will be dead long before that. The average car reuqires less energy than an airconditioner per day. In half a century we added airconditioning to almost all of the country. Somehow the grid didn't explode. Why? It happened over the course of half a century.

[derfy]

Originally Posted by Statistical

The AVERAGE car does not need to be charge for 8 to 12 hours at 10 kW. That is 120 kWh or 360 miles assumming an average of 3 miles per kWh. The average driver doesn't drive 360 miles a day (1.3 miillion miles annually).

The AVERAGE car will probably be driven 30 miles and so need to topoff with 10 kWh. Spread out over 8 hours that is an average loan on the grid of 1.25 kW. If they use a 10 kW charger they will be done charging in an hour not 12 hours.

I would add the transition is going to happen over the next 40+ years so the annualized growth rate in demand on the grid is downright tiny. Even IF California & EU bans new ICEV in 2035 (CA allows 20% PHEV in its "ban" BTW) that is just new vehicles. Lets assume that doesn't get delayed or water down. New sales are only about 5% of the fleet. It will be another decade before BEVs are half the cars on the road and 20 years before they are 90%+ and probably another decade before the last of the vehicles get replaced.

So yes the grid will have to handle all vehicles on the road being BEVs ... in 2065. All the doom & gloomers will be dead long before that. The average car reuqires less energy than an airconditioner per day. In half a century we added airconditioning to almost all of the country. Somehow the grid didn't explode. Why? It happened over the course of half a century.

So, if we have 10 million EVs (hardly a complete transition), what is your number for the Base Load increase at night, in GW?

You think 10 million "empty batteries" will only be charged to 30 miles instead of 300 miles on Sunday night? How may EV owners are installing a Level 2 chargers - 50 Amps at 240 volts - in there garage? Notice I am not even considering the impact of Fast Chargers and Supercharges at filling stations, which use from 100kw to 300 kw.

[Statistical]

Originally Posted by derfy

So, if we have 10 million EVs (hardly a complete transition), what is your number for the Base Load increase at night, in GW?

You think 10 million "empty batteries" will only be charged to 30 miles instead of 300 miles on Sunday night? How may EV owners are installing a Level 2 chargers - 50 Amps at 240 volts - in there garage? Notice I am not even considering the impact of Fast Chargers and Supercharges at filling stations, which use from 100kw to 300 kw.

Why would the AVERAGE vehicle have an empty battery every single night. Do you drive 300 miles a day every day 365 days a year?

Yes the average BEV will recharge 30 to 40 miles a day because that is what the average driver drives a day. More on some days less on others but when you are talking about 10M+ BEVs it will average out.

You might as well claim gasoline powered cars will never work because they will need 25 gallons of gasoline a day every day 365 days a year. Except they don't because almost nobody drive 400 miles a day and even the few that do are offset by people driving 5 miles that day or none.

I would add there are already 2M BEVs in the US (and another 1M PHEVs). That number is growing by haf a million a year. So even without growth we will find out if your grid collapse at 10M BEVs will happen in a few years. Spoiler: it won't.

Overnight capacity won't need to increase at all because there is about 500 GW of idled capacity overnight. We already have the overnight capacity we turn it off because there isn't enough demand overnight to use it. Peak production in the US is about 1300 GW and overnight lows (midnight to 6am) average only 700 GW. We could put 20M BEV on the road without building a single power plant if they charge at night. Of course we will build new powerplants. We are continually building new powerplants to deal with expanding demand growth but even IF we get to 100% BEV in 2050 the annualized demand growth is tiny <2% a year.

If the plan was crush all 300M vehicles tomorrow and replace them all with BEVs overnight that will all be charged during peak demand that would be a problem but we aren't we will be phasing out ICEV over the course of decades. Even ideal projections are at least 30 years realistically it will be 40+ before the last of the laggards are gone.

[derfy]

Originally Posted by RaymondR

Not going to read the 269 previous posts to see whether someone has already made the suggestion, but:

We're all going to have to get boats that sail better and become more patient.

What's sailing got to do with this? Oh, is that what that big metal post is for on the top of my coach roof? ;-}

BTW, sailing craft to the original solar powered vehicles. Wind energy comes from the sun. And, unlike grid-powered BEVs, sailboats really are "green" when they are sailing. .../)... Fair Winds

[derfy]

Originally Posted by Statistical

Why would the AVERAGE vehicle have an empty battery every single night. Do you drive 300 miles a day every day 365 days a year?

Yes the average BEV will recharge 30 to 40 miles a day because that is what the average driver drives a day. More on some days less on others but when you are talking about 10M+ BEVs it will average out.

You might as well claim gasoline powered cars will never work because they will need 25 gallons of gasoline a day every day 365 days a year. Except they don't because almost nobody drive 400 miles a day and even the few that do are offset by people driving 5 miles that day or none.

I would add there are already 2M BEVs in the US (and another 1M PHEVs). That number is growing by haf a million a year. So even without growth we will find out if your grid collapse at 10M BEVs will happen in a few years. Spoiler: it won't.

The US uses 370 million gallons of gas per day (average). https://www.eia.gov/energyexplained/...f-gasoline.php. That is 25 million 15-gallon tanks of gas, average, each and every day. On Sunday night in August, after everybody has spent the weekend on the road and wants a full tank on Monday morning, how many tanks are filled? I am guessing 50 million. I not hard to believe 10 million EV owners will need full tank on Monday. Nobody wants to head out on Monday with an EV that is 80% empty.

So, regardless of when it happens, when half our cars are EVs, what is your number for the Base Load impact, in GW, on the US grid? Show your math.

My estimate is +100 MW, moving us from 400 to 500 MW Base Load. +66 nukes or +200 coal or gas plants.

[derfy]

Originally Posted by Statistical

Why would the AVERAGE vehicle have an empty battery every single night. Do you drive 300 miles a day every day 365 days a year?

Yes the average BEV will recharge 30 to 40 miles a day because that is what the average driver drives a day. More on some days less on others but when you are talking about 10M+ BEVs it will average out.

You might as well claim gasoline powered cars will never work because they will need 25 gallons of gasoline a day every day 365 days a year. Except they don't because almost nobody drive 400 miles a day and even the few that do are offset by people driving 5 miles that day or none.

I would add there are already 2M BEVs in the US (and another 1M PHEVs). That number is growing by haf a million a year. So even without growth we will find out if your grid collapse at 10M BEVs will happen in a few years. Spoiler: it won't.

Overnight capacity won't need to increase at all because there is about 500 GW of idled capacity overnight. We already have the overnight capacity we turn it off because there isn't enough demand overnight to use it. Peak production in the US is about 1300 GW and overnight lows (midnight to 6am) average only 700 GW. We could put 20M BEV on the road without building a single power plant if they charge at night. Of course we will build new powerplants. We are continually building new powerplants to deal with expanding demand growth but even IF we get to 100% BEV in 2050 the annualized demand growth is tiny <2% a year.

If the plan was crush all 300M vehicles tomorrow and replace them all with BEVs overnight that will all be charged during peak demand that would be a problem but we aren't we will be phasing out ICEV over the course of decades. Even ideal projections are at least 30 years realistically it will be 40+ before the last of the laggards are gone.

BTW, your generation figures are off by 2x.

This is the max week in the past 12 months, mid July 2022. ref https://www.eia.gov/electricity/grid...view/US48/US48. The troughs are a little above 400 Mw (at night) and the peaks are 750 Mw. The Base Load is Nuke, Coal, and Nat Gas, with a little hydro and wind. The Peak (during the day) is handled with more Nat Gas and Coal with some Solar.

What happens when we add 100 MW to this in the middle of the night? A lot more coal, nat gas, and nuke, that's what. The lights are going out as it is when we get this kind of mid-summer load. Don't kid yourself that there is a whole lot of unused reserve generating capacity waiting in the wings. You and I will be buying and building it when the EVs really get rolled out.

An then, there is the upgrade to the last mile of copper residential grid, which we have not even discussed yet.

An then we can contemplate what happens when we get hit by a solar Carrington Event or EMP from a nuke attack. Unlikely, you say? Read about the Carrington Event of 1859 and its impact on the telegraph network.

[Statistical]

GW not MW and we don't need to add 100 GW of new capacity there are hundreds of GW of existing idle capacity.

Also this isn't happening overnight. We aren't tomorrow forcing everyone to scrap every existing vehicle and buy brand new BEVs and plug them all in the same day and charge all of them 300+ miles everyday 365 days a year. The phase out of ICEV is going to take litterally decades. You I and most people reading this likely will be dead before it is complete.

Having lived with a BEV for years the daily consumption is modest. You keep thinking like a gasoline powered mindset where you wait till the car is empty and then grab a full tank. I drive 30-40 miles in a day, plug it in when I get home. The car smartly waits until midnight when rates are cheapest and then recharges not 340+ miles but the 30 miles I used. It isn't 340 miles added every 10 days it is 30 or so miles added each. Tomorrow and everyday the tank is full again when I leave in the morning.

n 2019, drivers across the US consumed roughly 3.4 billion barrels, or 142.8 billion gallons, of motor gasoline.

According to the EPA, every gallon of gasoline is equivalent to 33.7 kilowatt-hours (kWh) of electricity. Based on these metrics, an equivalent of approximately 4,800 billion kWh was used to fuel gasoline vehicles over that year.

According to the Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy, EVs are roughly two and a half to six times more efficient using energy from the power grid than conventional cars are using gasoline. Given that comparison, it would take roughly 800 to 1,900 billion kWh of electricity to power all vehicles if they were EVs.

The US used about 4,130 billion kWh of electricity in 2019. This means if all cars were EVs that year, the US would have consumed 20-50% more electricity.

Using the highest/worst numbers we are looking at a 50% increase in electrical demand ... over the next 40 years. That is an annualized growth rate of ~1% (1.01^40 = 1.48).

In the short term if next year there were 1M new BEV sold and they averaged 3 miles per kWh and averaged 13,500 miles per year that is an extra 4.5 billion kWh per year in electrical demand which sounds like a massive number until you consider that existing demand is >4000 billion kWh so even 1M new BEVs in a year is increasing demand by 0.1%.

It is going to be ok man. The transition is going to take decades. The grid is already expanding continually to deal with over increases in demand and population. This is just another one which will occur on a generational scale. The numbers are big because the country and timelines are big. We added 150 million airconditioners to the country and the grid didn't explode ... because we didn't add them in a single day.

[gonesail]

Originally Posted by Chotu

It’s a coming: California bans sale of new diesel trucks. All of them.

good reason to stay far and away from California